Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

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The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:


If they attack Israel then it's counter attack to Iran....then it's all over for mankind too,


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A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is now in effect for Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco Counties as conditions that brought about storms that toppled trees and knocked out power to thousands in the Bay area Monday have erupted again along the sea breeze Wednesday afternoon.

The sea breeze has organized from Manatee County through Pasco County, with scattered storms seen throughout the Bay area counties, Bay News 9 Meteorologist Josh Linker said. There is a 60 percent chance of rain for any given location in the viewing area.

The storms have erupted earlier than they did Monday," Linker said, "so that could help to limit the severity, but the storms are still intense."As the storms build earlier in the afternoon, the sea breeze could move through before the evening commute even begins.
Bay area residents woke up to calm conditions earlier Wednesday, but afternoon heat and sea breeze will pull in significant moisture that's present over the Gulf of Mexico. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area and some parts of southwest Florida were getting rain early Wednesday, as well, and Clay said that's an indication the Bay area could get more rain later.

"When we see morning thunderstorms in south Florida or on the east coast, that's a very good sign we're going to see afternoon storms around here," Linker said.

Linker said the pattern is with us for the long haul, as he doesn't see any changes in the current weather pattern for the next five to seven days.
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528. wxmod
Quoting lahcuts:
A few comments on the discussion of climate change:

Consensus in science does not prove anything. Only hard, accurate data counts. The fact that some percentage of the scientists agree (or disagree) is not an argument for or against anything. It is even less of an argument relative to the general population. On what scientific basis does the public make a scientific conclusion? Consensus of a jury has lead to hundreds of wrongful convictions for capital murder. Then there is Galileo.

The climate may be changing but who has seen the data to show man, via carbon dioxide release, is singularly responsible. Circumstantial evidence, piecemeal, on a relatively local basis may or may not point to anything. One does not get to pick and choose the data which supports their view. How is the original data statistically treated to form a database that is used in analyses? After a multitude of correction factors are applied, what does the corrected data mean?

Have all alternate explanations been shown to not be responsible in part or in total? Are all alternate explanations even known? Changing ocean currents seem to be in vogue lately. Why are they changing, fundamentally, root cause?

Laboratory simulation experiments and their results, pro and con, seem to be absent from discussions.

Just a few thoughts.


If I was making a beer, I would expect yeast to make alcohol. I would expect that yeast to eat all the sugar I fed it until the the yeast made so much alcohol that it couldn't eat any sugar anymore. People are yeast. Oil is our sugar. Polluting ourselves to death is our destiny, unless we think our way out of it. People who don't want to think are not helpful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Yeah, it is a mean lookin' line and more storms the next few days. But at the same time I wish I was in FL to be there on vacation and to be in the storms, tough call for me.
Stay safe Largo!
..was down by clearwater beach this morning lots of people were there, beautiful morning here..now..its boom time for sure,sky is getting so dark and the boomers geez
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..ty this is going to be bad i can feel it
Yeah, it is a mean lookin' line and more storms the next few days. But at the same time I wish I was in FL to be there on vacation and to be in the storms, tough call for me.
Stay safe Largo!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I think we have to calm down here...


today has been an interesting blog day to say the least.
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523. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


you don't need to explain what other people think about climate change. if i want to try to understand the denier POV i'll just hit my head real hard with a hammer a few times.

certainly the sort of change that needs to happen is not going to come if we waste our time kowtowing to a bunch of people who deny basic science, and even after you finally convince shrug their shoulders and say 'no, it's all part of god's plan!'. that's merely rationalizing doing nothing. all it does is cause more misery and waste time.


i am just teaching ya basic debating skills, if you really desire change to your way of thinking and i am not saying you are right or wrong, you need to understand the other side of view so you can use that to your advantage and with a clean debate you might get them to agree with your way of thinking. the tactic of drawing a line in the sand and picking what side is what will not lead to change.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


little rotation.
Too bad it wont develop

NHC might have mentioned it if it waasnt over land
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Wow no one has seen how much rain has fallen in tx
Very little rain here so far but some scattered areas have received too much in South Central but majority of the areas have 3 day totals of half an inch so to me that isnt much to talk about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Everyone in the Tampa area watch out.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-101-103-112015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0039.120711T1922Z-120711T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
322 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOON LAKE ESTATES TO 6 MILES
WEST OF RUSKIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF NEW
PORT RICHEY TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...AND
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
DESOTO PARK...HUDSON...SAINT PETERSBURG...PINELLAS PARK...
HOLIDAY...TARPON SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...CLEARWATER...SAINT PETE
BEACH...LARGO...DUNEDIN...SEMINOLE...LAKE FERN...ODESSA...TOWN N
COUNTRY...EGMONT KEY...PINELLAS POINT...WESTCHASE...VENETIAN ISLES
AND BOYD HILL NATURE PRESERVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2822 8285 2819 8283 2838 8271 2835 8239
2765 8234 2766 8256 2789 8241 2792 8248
2782 8246 2783 8254 2796 8256 2797 8266
2798 8262 2800 8264 2799 8267 2782 8258
2757 8277 2821 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 135DEG 8KT 2829 8257 2772 8253

$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
..ty this is going to be bad i can feel it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Link

Interesting article about the effects of climate change on salmon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is a big white mass on FL moving really really fast! OMG!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting prcane4you:
People here talking where's hurricanes in EPAC are going.Who cares about that?

















keep those to UR-SELF!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everyone in the Tampa area watch out.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-101-103-112015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0039.120711T1922Z-120711T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
322 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOON LAKE ESTATES TO 6 MILES
WEST OF RUSKIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF NEW
PORT RICHEY TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...AND
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
DESOTO PARK...HUDSON...SAINT PETERSBURG...PINELLAS PARK...
HOLIDAY...TARPON SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...CLEARWATER...SAINT PETE
BEACH...LARGO...DUNEDIN...SEMINOLE...LAKE FERN...ODESSA...TOWN N
COUNTRY...EGMONT KEY...PINELLAS POINT...WESTCHASE...VENETIAN ISLES
AND BOYD HILL NATURE PRESERVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2822 8285 2819 8283 2838 8271 2835 8239
2765 8234 2766 8256 2789 8241 2792 8248
2782 8246 2783 8254 2796 8256 2797 8266
2798 8262 2800 8264 2799 8267 2782 8258
2757 8277 2821 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 135DEG 8KT 2829 8257 2772 8253

$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
322 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOON LAKE ESTATES TO 6 MILES
WEST OF RUSKIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF NEW
PORT RICHEY TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...AND
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
DESOTO PARK...HUDSON...SAINT PETERSBURG...PINELLAS PARK...
HOLIDAY...TARPON SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...CLEARWATER...SAINT PETE
BEACH...LARGO...DUNEDIN...SEMINOLE...LAKE FERN...ODESSA...TOWN N
COUNTRY...EGMONT KEY...PINELLAS POINT...WESTCHASE...VENETIAN ISLES
AND BOYD HILL NATURE PRESERVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


everyone here.


I think we have to calm down here...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


i am not disagree with ya, just explaining what other people think about climate change, if ya honestly want change ya need to understand the other side on how and why they think differ than you, thats if ya truly want change or ya could just be complaining about things idk, i am with ya not against ya, if you truly want change look at the BIG picture and engage like an f-16...



you don't need to explain what other people think about climate change. if i want to try to understand the denier POV i'll just hit my head real hard with a hammer a few times.

certainly the sort of change that needs to happen is not going to come if we waste our time kowtowing to a bunch of people who deny basic science, and even after you finally convince shrug their shoulders and say 'no, it's all part of god's plan!'. that's merely rationalizing doing nothing. all it does is cause more misery and waste time.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 735
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Quoting prcane4you:
People here talking where's hurricanes in EPAC are going.Who cares about that?















It is a tropical and weather blog, isn't it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Its pretty simple if you dont care then why comment? Just leave the blog that is all!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lahcuts:
A few comments on the discussion of climate change:

Consensus in science does not prove anything. Only hard, accurate data counts. The fact that some percentage of the scientists agree (or disagree) is not an argument for or against anything. It is even less of an argument relative to the general population. On what scientific basis does the public make a scientific conclusion? Consensus of a jury has lead to hundreds of wrongful convictions for capital murder. Then there is Galileo.

The climate may be changing but who has seen the data to show man, via carbon dioxide release, is singularly responsible. Circumstantial evidence, piecemeal, on a relatively local basis may or may not point to anything. One does not get to pick and choose the data which supports their view. How is the original data statistically treated to form a database that is used in analyses? After a multitude of correction factors are applied, what does the corrected data mean?

Have all alternate explanations been shown to not be responsible in part or in total? Are all alternate explanations even known? Changing ocean currents seem to be in vogue lately. Why are they changing, fundamentally, root cause?

Laboratory simulation experiments and their results, pro and con, seem to be absent from discussions.

Just a few thoughts.


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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting prcane4you:
Who cares?
The way those storms are lining up in the E.Pacific looks like some good preliminary evidence that the El Nino is starting to take a stronger hold. This has implications for the Atlantic Basin as well as the W. Pacific as the season rolls towards its peak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
504. yoboi
Quoting lahcuts:
A few comments on the discussion of climate change:

Consensus in science does not prove anything. Only hard, accurate data counts. The fact that some percentage of the scientists agree (or disagree) is not an argument for or against anything. It is even less of an argument relative to the general population. On what scientific basis does the public make a scientific conclusion? Consensus of a jury has lead to hundreds of wrongful convictions for capital murder. Then there is Galileo.

The climate may be changing but who has seen the data to show man, via carbon dioxide release, is singularly responsible. Circumstantial evidence, piecemeal, on a relatively local basis may or may not point to anything. One does not get to pick and choose the data which supports their view. How is the original data statistically treated to form a database that is used in analyses? After a multitude of correction factors are applied, what does the corrected data mean?

Have all alternate explanations been shown to not be responsible in part or in total? Are all alternate explanations even known? Changing ocean currents seem to be in vogue lately. Why are they changing, fundamentally, root cause?

Laboratory simulation experiments and their results, pro and con, seem to be absent from discussions.

Just a few thoughts.


i think it's a good thing to talk about and debate, knowledge is great to share.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Wow no one has seen how much rain has fallen in tx
..how bad is it there? flooding?
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Quoting prcane4you:
People here talking where's hurricanes in EPAC are going.Who cares about that?

This blog. Anything relevant you'd like to add?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
241 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
TAMPA BAY WATERS...
INCLUDING COURTNEY CAMPBELL CAUSEWAY...GANDY BRIDGE...HILLSBOROUGH
BAY...HOWARD FRANKLAND BRIDGE...OLD TAMPA BAY...SUNSHINE SKYWAY
BRIDGE AND TAMPA BAY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 8 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS...
WHICH CAN FORM WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
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................................GT your right under it now..how is it?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


don't attack iran it will be mankinds fatal error


If they attack Israel then it's counter attack to Iran....then it's all over for mankind too,
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Wow no one has seen how much rain has fallen in tx
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Quoting prcane4you:
Who cares?
There is a reason why I asked. I want to know what others here think since Emilia is strengthening again. I think around 120mph should be the intensity imo. But if you don't care since it isn't affecting you then thats fine by me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
People here talking where's hurricanes in EPAC are going.Who cares about that?















Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting prcane4you:
Who cares?


everyone here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting prcane4you:
Who cares?

I do. Pretty stupid question if you ask me considering this is a weather blog and there's a major hurricane out there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
A few comments on the discussion of climate change:

Consensus in science does not prove anything. Only hard, accurate data counts. The fact that some percentage of the scientists agree (or disagree) is not an argument for or against anything. It is even less of an argument relative to the general population. On what scientific basis does the public make a scientific conclusion? Consensus of a jury has lead to hundreds of wrongful convictions for capital murder. Then there is Galileo.

The climate may be changing but who has seen the data to show man, via carbon dioxide release, is singularly responsible. Circumstantial evidence, piecemeal, on a relatively local basis may or may not point to anything. One does not get to pick and choose the data which supports their view. How is the original data statistically treated to form a database that is used in analyses? After a multitude of correction factors are applied, what does the corrected data mean?

Have all alternate explanations been shown to not be responsible in part or in total? Are all alternate explanations even known? Changing ocean currents seem to be in vogue lately. Why are they changing, fundamentally, root cause?

Laboratory simulation experiments and their results, pro and con, seem to be absent from discussions.

Just a few thoughts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Hey anyone what do you think Emilia will be at 5 EDT?
She is looking really good right now. All sshe needs to do is clear out her eye more.
Who cares?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
490. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


i don't care if you believe in god or not. that's absolutely meaningless to me. the fact that the globe is warming due to anthropogenic co2 doesn't care if you believe in god, invisible pink unicorns or nothing at all. i'm considerate of other peoples' religious beliefs if and when the topic of discussion intersects with religion. climate change does not.

if we're talking about gravity and someone says 'well i believe in the bible etc' my first reaction is going to be 'so what? you read the bible, herpdy derp.' same goes for a discussion on TB evolving drug resistance.


i am not disagree with ya, just explaining what other people think about climate change, if ya honestly want change ya need to understand the other side on how and why they think differ than you, thats if ya truly want change or ya could just be complaining about things idk, i am with ya not against ya, if you truly want change look at the BIG picture and engage like an f-16...

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Quoting Tribucanes:
Picture this, an attack by the West on Iranian nuclear sites, oil would skyrocket to 200-300$ a barrel. Euro could collapse under that weight sending the Global economy into immediate free fall. World Bank and IMF have been preparing for this for some time. They are ready to set up a One World Government. This could happen, and could happen far faster than many think. We are at the door now and the good guys ain't driving this vehicle.


don't attack iran it will be mankinds fatal error
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It deserves 130 mph but they're going to give it 115 mph.

Knowing the NHC it will probably only be 115 unless it really strengthens but you never know.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
IMO they'll aim higher than 115mph. Latest T#'s on Emilia where T5.5/5.5, and the Dvorak was 6.4.

A blend of that would be an intensity of 125mph about.
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Quoting Grothar:


That would be a delefto. Derechos usually go to the right.
..LOL ok I'll go for that roflmao
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I believe it's a gust front or an out-flow boundary.
man this is going to be bad, sky is so dark looking towards tampa and the winds picking up
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482. wxmod
North Pole webcam

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Quoting LargoFl:
..is that what you would call..depecheo? hope i spelled that right..moving into a straight line of red storms headed right for pinellas
I believe it's a gust front or an out-flow boundary.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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