Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

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The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is Emilia's secondary peak. It will be a slow decline from here. And since it's annular, I do mean SLOW.
I think this "2nd peak" is even stronger than the first one, lol.
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HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA MADE A LITTLE BIT OF A COME BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPED
A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DISTINCT EYE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED
AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS PROBABLY LED TO A HIGHER INTENSITY EARLIER...BUT SINCE
THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
A LITTLE BIT. THERE COULD SOME ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER WATERS IN
12 HOURS OR SO.

EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO
IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED SO
EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING CYCLONE PROGRESSING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
WESTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.8N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.1N 119.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 16.2N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 17.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting weatherh98:


ehh i couldnt go down and as usual being 14 and growing i got hungry. i ate and made some material to post in the next few hours.


how was your nap then,miserable?

And i think you should just post all your stuff it all now.
Better than you torturing us for the next few hours with it.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 118.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Here is another view of Arctic Ice derived from SSMIs as of July 10, constructed from U. of Bremen source:

Note there is some weaker ice and possibly some open water near the pole.
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Tropical wave crossing Florida looking interesting. Upper winds have become very favorable for development...Florida and the east GOM will be interesting to watch in the next 24 hours...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who told you to get up?


ehh i couldnt go down and as usual being 14 and growing i got hungry. i ate and made some material to post in the next few hours.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Paying now to prepare for tomorrow's consequences from GW is going to be WAY cheaper than waiting until it happens and being reactionary. Corporations still see 1 to 2 decades of current profitability before they have to make major concessions because of GW effects. Corporations really want that 10-20 years of current revenues because GREED and love of money trumps all. If American's really catch on to what's coming, if the average America even had a little clue that 90% plus of climate experts know this is man driven; then you could toss those years of profitability for corporations out the window. They, as they have readily shown, really, really don't want that. It's suffer a great deal now, or suffer a human catastrophe possibly later. A national purpose could be achieved again by building and preparing for what's to come. To prepare for the daunting task of preparing for what's to come could possibly lead to countless jobs and huge National projects.
...didnt they do something like what you suggest back in what the 1930's, got many of the people working and building things like roads and dams etc..with over 8% unemployment and i think that figure is way way too low, it doesnt count the ones who gave up..it would be a good idea but the govt is broke
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Latest Satellite Imagery depicts a mid-level circulation right over Miami Beach. This area will have to be watched for possible formation into a Tropical Depression!
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622. wxmod
Arctic sea ice extent. Only the darkest purple, outlined, could survive the summer melt. Not much of an ice cube in our martini.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Hey you good guys on computers, i cannot post flash...look for the Tropical atlantic-rainbow loop and LOOK at that swirling rotation half way between florida and africa!!!!...now this COULD be our tropical event if it gains strength


I posted that this morning Largo on the blog and was told it was an ULL..but I believe Levi posted on his blog today to watch it..its HUGE..somehow when I went back to the GOES, the flash keeps crashing on me..
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620. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER DANIEL (EP0402012)
11:00 AM HST July 11 2012
===================================

SUBJECT: "DANIEL" Weakens To A Tropical Depression..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Daniel (1006 hPa) located at 15.4N 142.2W or 785 NM east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 15.2N 147.5W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


maybe youre a weak forecaster:)

Who told you to get up?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32876
Quoting bappit:

In this case, pleas for an open mind usually are just requests to ignore the data.


Having an open mind in a discussion goes both ways. Not just for the ones who disagree with mine or your position.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Paying now to prepare for tomorrow's consequences from GW is going to be WAY cheaper than waiting until it happens and being reactionary. Corporations still see 1 to 2 decades of current profitability before they have to make major concessions because of GW effects. Corporations really want that 10-20 years of current revenues because GREED and love of money trumps all. If American's really catch on to what's coming, if the average America even had a little clue that 90% plus of climate experts know this is man driven; then you could toss those years of profitability for corporations out the window. They, as they have readily shown, really, really don't want that. It's suffer a great deal now, or suffer a human catastrophe possibly later. A national purpose could be achieved again by building and preparing for what's to come. To prepare for the daunting task of preparing for what's to come could possibly lead to countless jobs and huge National projects.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
I know you said street flooding already and most likely more of that happening. Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

FLC057-101-103-112045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0042.120711T1948Z-120711T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-PINELLAS FL-PASCO FL-
348 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TAMPA

SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...HOLIDAY

PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TARPON SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...DUNEDIN


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2832 8274 2834 8259 2811 8245 2789 8243
2786 8248 2780 8242 2785 8256 2796 8256
2797 8266 2798 8262 2800 8265 2795 8271
2794 8271 2789 8258 2777 8262 2777 8265
2785 8277 2806 8283
..this is some storm lol..those poor people in low lying area's are going to get flooded for sure
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Quoting LargoFl:
..dont know yet, its still pouring and storming outside, slow moveing storm it is
I know you said street flooding already and most likely more of that happening. Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

FLC057-101-103-112045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0042.120711T1948Z-120711T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-PINELLAS FL-PASCO FL-
348 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TAMPA

SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...HOLIDAY

PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TARPON SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...DUNEDIN


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2832 8274 2834 8259 2811 8245 2789 8243
2786 8248 2780 8242 2785 8256 2796 8256
2797 8266 2798 8262 2800 8265 2795 8271
2794 8271 2789 8258 2777 8262 2777 8265
2785 8277 2806 8283
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Gearsts:
Why is everything and El derecho now?

Cause they are soooo cool!
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Hey you good guys on computers, i cannot post flash...look for the Tropical atlantic-rainbow loop and LOOK at that swirling rotation half way between florida and africa!!!!...now this COULD be our tropical event if it gains strength
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Quoting bohonkweatherman and Ritaevac:


Well, the frontal activity seems to be settling down. Almost sunny over Lake Travis. But it seems the coast wants to do something with the front and all the moisture it stirred up. Is the front strong enough for a cut-off low of its SW axis to break away and spin?
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Quoting carcar1967:



Then question then becomes, WHO are the truly ignorant people? If you are steadfast in your opinion and are bullheaded about it, and so is the other person, and both have facts on their respective side giving credence to their own position, then both would be considered ignorant by not listening with an open mind to each other.

In this case, pleas for an open mind usually are just requests to ignore the data.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why do Daniel and Emilia hate me so? When I say they're weakening they start strengthening.



maybe youre a weak forecaster:)
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607. Skyepony (Mod)
Trolling the news. Heat stirred up the anthrax killing 150 bison in Canada. Looks like flash flooding in TN, heat wave in Southern Cali is overwhelming the power grid & US corn crop looks even more doom than last week.

lahcuts~ The beer analogy is a great one. It's a scene that plays out again & again here on earth.. Some species finds a niche, an advantage or the environment ripe for it's population to explode..until it's waste from it's abundant consumption slows, stops or eradicates it.. Human population has exploded..we are making waste & alot of it from air pollution to the dead zones that surround alot of the coasts. Not only are we changing the composite of our air forcing the heat balance, we are putting Round Up in Rain water, Viagra & antibiotics in our drinking water, Growth hormone in our milk, oil in our fishing grounds & etc..
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Quoting carcar1967:



Then question then becomes, WHO are the truly ignorant people?


the uninformed people who deny basic reality. sorry, but 'ignorant' does not mean 'does not suffer fools gladly'.
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Very heavy rain here now at Madeira Beach but not a lot of lightening yet.

img src="Photobucket">
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used CIMSS vorticity maps
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603. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


sorry, but i'm long past trying to convert the willfully ignorant. i've tried for years. i might as well try to convince pat robertson to become a muslim.


it's worth trying.....
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
One area east of Austin has received over a foot of rain since yesterday and it is pouring there now. Unfortunately they are near a huge creek and in a flood zone. I am getting my first good rain this week right now. I have some family members in West and Southwest Austin that have received 4 to 6 inches this week. For July this is a Blessing for Texas, I will say this when it isnt rain the 90 degree temps and 80 percent humidity are very hard to tolerate and not seen around here in July very often.


That's gulf coast air man
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Why do Daniel and Emilia hate me so? When I say they're weakening they start strengthening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32876
nice!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


THIS STORM CAN'T BE 105 MPH WHEN IT SAYS THERE NEARLY 145 MPH... and it will not be 115 at 5 PM.

she looks like when she became a cat 4 before.
Maybe alittle much but I get what you mean. This is the NHC being conservative again.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Its the wonder of nature baby! How much rain and how strong of winds did you get Largo or anyone else in Tampa?
..dont know yet, its still pouring and storming outside, slow moveing storm it is
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Quoting LargoFl:
..this is bad, i have a river flowing down my street gee i dont want to hear them say oh..we got a half inch of rain..its simply pouring rain, the kind that floods people and the wind..and the heavy booming..hahaha..oh how i love it

Its the wonder of nature baby! How much rain and how strong of winds did you get Largo or anyone else in Tampa?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Maybe those who ignore scientific factual information don't deserve a seat at the table, but they are the only ones at the table right now. That 90% or so of climate experts that say GW is happening and man driven are the ones with no seat at the table, hence our problem with true solutions our leaders will embrace.
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EP, 05, 2012071118, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1178W, 100, 960, HU,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
593. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


97% of all climate scientists accept that the Earth is warming and that human-caused greenhouse gases are causing the warming.

More than 50% of all Americans believe that climate change is happening right now. Another 30% believe that climate change will start affecting us soon.

Less than 20% of all Americans believe that climate change will never happen.

Who has the minority position?



use global numbers, if you are the majority with climate change then the debate is over...
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Quoting yoboi:


but if ya look at all scientific polls your way of thinking is the minority concerning climate change and if you really desire change you will first have to understand there thinking so ya can use that to your advantage with teaching them to maybe be on your side of the debate, ya can't just stand there with the big ole whip and swing it at people who don't share your views, be creative counter flank tactics and understanding the big picture will lead to change.


sorry, but i'm long past trying to convert the willfully ignorant. i've tried for years. i might as well try to convince pat robertson to become a muslim.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Hasn't rained all day in my area since before sunrise. Nuttin, only got 0.15"
One area east of Austin has received over a foot of rain since yesterday and it is pouring there now. Unfortunately they are near a huge creek and in a flood zone. I am getting my first good rain this week right now. I have some family members in West and Southwest Austin that have received 4 to 6 inches this week. For July this is a Blessing for Texas, I will say this when it isnt rain the 90 degree temps and 80 percent humidity are very hard to tolerate and not seen around here in July very often.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


but if ya look at all scientific polls your way of thinking is the minority concerning climate change and if you really desire change you will first have to understand there thinking so ya can use that to your advantage with teaching them to maybe be on your side of the debate, ya can't just stand there with the big ole whip and swing it at people who don't share your views, be creative counter flank tactics and understanding the big picture will lead to change.


97% of all climate scientists accept that the Earth is warming and that human-caused greenhouse gases are causing the warming.

More than 50% of all Americans believe that climate change is happening right now. Another 30% believe that climate change will start affecting us soon.

Less than 20% of all Americans believe that climate change will never happen.

Who has the minority position?
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting wxchaser97:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +0.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION



THIS STORM CAN'T BE 105 MPH WHEN IT SAYS THERE NEARLY 145 MPH... and it will not be 115 at 5 PM.

she looks like when she became a cat 4 before.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.that red is right over my house lol..whoa booming big time out there
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +0.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
..tree's blowing around big time now
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Quoting Skyepony:
How's those 15" rain storm totals treating y'all in TX?.

27.1 inches wow!!! Topping debby :p...depends where u are bohonk!
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img src="Photobucket">
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think WNW maybe NW.


Thanks StormTracker
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Quoting schwankmoe:


neither will bending over the line and deliberately kissing the ring of rank ignorance. there's no use in trying to change the minds of people that have an irrational knee-jerk disbelief in the most basic way the universe works. as i said, all that does is waste time.

look, you're not teaching me the rules of debating. there is no debate here when it comes to people who refuse to believe the basic rules of the physical world. people don't get to bring utter bullheaded ignorance to the table and demand to be treated as equals, to say 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'. giving the deliberately ignorant a seat at the table just gives them the idea that they deserve to be there. they don't.



Then question then becomes, WHO are the truly ignorant people? If you are steadfast in your opinion and are bullheaded about it, and so is the other person, and both have facts on their respective side giving credence to their own position, then both would be considered ignorant by not listening with an open mind to each other.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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