Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

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The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

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Emilia:


98E:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
If I evolves really,really Fast like, will I become Peek a chu ?


I need to know as I don't have much pink in my Wardrobe currently.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Keeper and I couldn't agree less on evolution but I respect his opinion.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.

While I believe the AGW part, I really think your joking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.


Hey, Scoost! Here is one lame example. If this doesn't help, I'll show you a picture of my first wife.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Renumber doesn't come for another 30 minutes.

Where do you get the renumber info TA?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting KoritheMan:


Evolution doesn't claim that organisms evolve in the manner you're thinking. This isn't Pokemon, where my Meowth evolves into a Persian after a certain point.


OK

ev·o·lu·tion/ˌevəˈlo͞oSHən/
Noun:
The process by which different kinds of living organisms are thought to have developed and diversified from earlier forms during the...
The gradual development of something, esp. from a simple to a more complex form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx 13, at TWO they didn't put a sentence that I believe is the final signal of having a renumber."If current trends continue,advisories will be initiated". Because if that sentence not being there,I am not sold on a renumber before the 8 PM PDT time of advisories.


No, but it's happened before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.


Climate change is leaving a visible mark on at least one subspecies of plant in South Australia. The leaves of the hopbush (Dodonaea viscosa subspecies angustissima) have narrowed by 2 millimetres over the past 127 years — a 40% decrease in width. The finding is published in Biology Letters1 this week.

Previous studies2 have documented shifts in species ranges and the timing of natural cycles such as plant flowering and bird migration as a result of global warming. But few have demonstrated morphological adaptations to climate change in plants and animals.


Link

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.

LOL. You're joking right?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
Tx 13, at TWO they didn't put a sentence that I believe is the final signal of having a renumber."If current trends continue advisories will be initiated". Because of that sentence not being there,I am not sold on a renumber before the 8 PM PDT advisory time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.


Evolution doesn't claim that organisms evolve in the manner you're thinking. This isn't Pokemon, where my Meowth evolves into a Persian after a certain point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.


Rut-roh,

..dats gonna leave a mark I bet.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
I can feel TWC eyes upon us.

It's downright creepy.


I wonder if Al is a lurker ?


A Partial shot of the Sun Rainbow or Solar Halo a few weeks back here,




Similar one here

The solar halos or rainbows are caused by viewing the light from the sun through high, thin cirrus clouds that are made of ice crystals, according to meteorology experts.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Your mind is the gatekeeper of life, and sometimes it lets a little true life in, but most of the time it does not.


I suspect that depends on the filters installed in your particular brain.

Belief systems can function to inhibit the intake of facts.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We have come a very, very long way, but we have a little further to go. The next and last step in our evolution is learning and accepting the truth of life, and this includes acknowledging our true past.

The truth will free us from the animal world we all evolved from.

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Hey Keep
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It'll be interesting to see how she interacts with this dry air to the west...

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Quoting BobWallace:


That's a very interesting observation.

Thanks.


Your mind is the gatekeeper of life, and sometimes it lets a little true life in, but most of the time it does not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Is Daniel still contributing to the EPAC's ACE even though it has moved into the CPAC?

Also of note, if CI estimates are correct, Emilia is now in the neighborhood of a 145 mph Category 4 monster.

It added a whole 0.1225 units this morning when it moved into the basin as a TS, but its a TD now, which gets no ACE, east pacific or not.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
CMC at 240HR!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4528
Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 14:50:33 N Lon : 118:35:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +7.5C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.7 degrees

************************************************* ***

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting Tazmanian:
no TD at 11pm

EP, 98, 2012071200, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1043W, 25, 1005, LO



wind stay the same mb up too 962mb

EP, 05, 2012071200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1186W, 100, 962, HU

Renumber doesn't come for another 30 minutes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
Is Daniel still contributing to the EPAC's ACE even though it has moved into the CPAC?

Also of note, if CI estimates are correct, Emilia is now in the neighborhood of a 145 mph Category 4 monster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We have come a very, very long way, but we have a little further to go. The next and last step in our evolution is learning and accepting the truth of life, and this includes acknowledging our true past.

The truth will free us from the animal world we all evolved from.


That's a very interesting observation.

Thanks.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
I spin, therefore,

I am
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


swirl, not swril..
lol, jk

nite all

Nite GAstormz. To be a swril, not to be a swril. To be a blob, not to be a blob lol.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Emilia RGB

00:30 UTC 12 July

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting Patrap:



Because dey on da right side of Truth and History.

Anything else?

: )



Says you!!!!


LOL!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
It's not what you look at that matters; it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau


AH! Too many words of wisdom! lol

Can't wait for next update from NHC to stay on topic here...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I have to say, I found the tree ring study thing interesting...

Link


This has been pointed out a few times already. Of course, the DailyMail article probably isn't the right article to look at if you want a good summary of what the study actually says and what it means in the larger context of science.

What the study shows was that for trees in that portion of Finland, the best estimate was that it was warmer in Roman times and Medieval times than present. Finland makes up less than 1% of the globe. It also suggests that human activities have halted an even steeper cooling trend than generally accepted. And no, one study does not "prove" anything, it suggests. Many independent studies over time lead to conclusions and proof, which is where our current understanding of climate science stands today.

Also the Medieval Warm Period was not experienced everywhere, and was not experienced everywhere at the same time. When this happens it is referred to as climate variability... think PDO, ENSO, NAO, etc. Heat energy in the system moving through the system via ocean currents/oscillations.

The same information, as reported on in scientific context:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22040-tree- rings-suggest-roman-world-was-warmer-than-thought. html

The actual paper:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurr ent/full/nclimate1589.html
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I have to say, I found the tree ring study thing interesting...

Link


me 2.
It helps to keep an open mind.
This finding, if true, would seem to say that part of our current GW is expected, and part is not.
Strange
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


How come no one ever says that to Nea?
Or Tom Taylor,
Or Bob Wallace?




Because dey on da right side of Truth and History.

Anything else?

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
no TD at 11pm

EP, 98, 2012071200, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1043W, 25, 1005, LO



wind stay the same mb up too 962mb

EP, 05, 2012071200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1186W, 100, 962, HU
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
It's not what you look at that matters; it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau
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Quoting wxchaser97:
12/0000 UTC 15.5N 143.0W TOO WEAK DANIEL -- Central Pacific
12/0000 UTC 13.1N 105.0W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific
12/0000 UTC 14.9N 118.6W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific



swirl, not swril..
lol, jk

nite all
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
We have come a very, very long way, but we have a little further to go. The next and last step in our evolution is learning and accepting the truth of life, and this includes acknowledging our true past.

The truth will free us from the animal world we all evolved from.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Also I prefer to think of it as bringing the truth.
truth

A man should look for what is and not for what he thinks should be.
Albert Einstein

Truth you can check: It is as matter of fact as the ground and as useful as food. It's the kind of truth that can make hate and war as unnecessary as ignorance.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry it is long but I'm posting a current view in images:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting TomTaylor:
Really quick...

Interesting to note that the GFS wants to bring the MJO back in our area of the world on the phase diagram, yet over the next two weeks it continues to show downward motion over the Atlantic on the actual global display. Instead, it moves the upward motion over Africa and the East Pacific, keeping the Atlantic suppressed with downward motion.



That would seem to be supported by continuous runs of zilch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Really quick...

Interesting to note that the GFS wants to bring the MJO back in our area of the world on the phase diagram, yet over the next two weeks it continues to show downward motion over the Atlantic on the actual global display. Instead, it moves the upward motion over Africa and the East Pacific, keeping the Atlantic suppressed with downward motion (with the exception of the East Atlantic where it shows a little upward motion).

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I'll be out for now.

Here's my blog entry earlier today for those who missed it:

Emilia re-strengthens; 98E nearly a tropical depression; Daniel weakening
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Visible looks good as well.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Should see a depression soon:



Agreed.
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Satellite picture of Hurricane Emilia from NASA. Taken from the Terra on July 9, 2012 at 2:25p.m. EDT. Yet another picture of the beautiful storm of Hurricane Emilia.
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I think Daniel should be declared post-tropical cyclone at the next advisory by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Satellite loop shows that Daniel is lacking deep convection over the past several hours.

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Should see a depression soon:

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12/0000 UTC 13.1N 105.0W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific
Should see the upgrade at 11pm EDT.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting caneswatch:


Bringing more politics on here?


Also I prefer to think of it as bringing the truth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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