Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

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The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

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1481. StormTracker2K
8:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Where are you getting all of these pictures from? These areas are too far apart for you to taking them yourself.


I'm happy for you guys! It seems lately like there is no medium anymore. It's always either too little rain or too much rain.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1480. schwankmoe
4:03 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


your jokin right????


no, i'm not. prior to CU rules applied to individuals and businesses limiting donations. then, unions, individuals and corporations were allowed to endorse candidates and even help organize things for them, but monetary donations were limited to set amounts. media were allowed to endorse candidates then as they are now.

after CU, however, the limits to donating were effectively removed. while technically unions have the ability to donate just as much to their preferred candidates and PACs as the corporate world does, we all know that the amount of cash the corporate world has on hand for this sort of thing dwarfs anything unions could scrape up. it's become completely lopsided.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
1479. PedleyCA
3:07 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Eastern Pacific Loop

Nice view of Fabio and friends... Good Morning All....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6219
1478. 7544
2:38 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
morning all looks like we have a train of waves all est of fla and with the high in place they only have one way to go <-------- but the ? is could the favorite one by the bahmas become more than a wave wait watch and see
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1476. wxmod
2:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Fires in Russia are coating the Arctic ice with soot, causing it to melt even faster than it's already disastrous pace. MODIS satellite photo.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1770
1475. yoboi
2:33 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting schwankmoe:


no. prior to CU, unions and corporations were both allowed to support candidates and positions. just to a limited degree. they both could support positions all they wanted, and endorse candidates if they wished, but monetarily the organizations were limited in their expenditures towards specific candidates' campaigns. CU effectively removed those limits. now unions and corporations can pour as much money as they want into the political system. suffice it to say, corporations tend to have much more money lying around than unions do, as the expenditures in this cycle are showing.

CU did not 'level the playing field' making it 'fair' for corporations. it was already fair. CU basically took an already-level playing field and then eliminated all the rules and fired the refs.

most of the pro-CU people are merely rationalizing breaking the system because now it's broken in their favor.


your jokin right????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2584
1474. Grothar
2:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Interesting development. The NHC has this as a depression and other sites have it as TS Fabio. A little scrambling probably going on as we speak.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1473. weatherh98
2:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Idk...maybe 1 of the other 100,000+ Cody's in this world.


yea

googled this...

There are 48 people in the US/Canada named Cody Fields
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1472. RitaEvac
2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Nature loving this water in SE TX


Water doing what it's supposed to do in subdivisions, notice the big houses high and dry, and detention ponds hold all the water


High water in Magnolia, TX


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1471. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1470. jeffs713
2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


No, just when half a foot of rain comes down in a few hrs

Or if you live on Fondren at 59, and there is a threat of rain. ;)

Houston is terribly flat, and while it drains decently, we've had a good amount of rain the last few days. Add in training storms, and you have a recipe for flooding. The gauge near my house is already crossing 5"... since midnight.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
1469. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


dude... who else could be cjfields799?

Idk...maybe 1 of the other 100,000+ Cody's in this world.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1468. weatherh98
2:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so


HOW WOULD I KNOW HIM
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1467. wxmod
2:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Huge fire in Russia, right, is peppering the Arctic ice cap, left, with black soot. MODIS satellite polar view.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1770
1466. GeorgiaStormz
2:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I live in louisiana...


so
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1465. weatherh98
2:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i know a c fields, but i doubt its him


I live in louisiana...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1464. RitaEvac
2:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Where are you getting all of these pictures from? These areas are too far apart for you to taking them yourself.


ABC 13 news
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1463. schwankmoe
2:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Great theory. Of course, the fatal flaw in it is that only climate-related disasters appear to be on the upswing (chart below). That can, of course, only be laid at the feet of climate change--unless it's somehow your contention that "this new age of technology" is only allowing us to report more floods and heat waves and the like, while somehow allowing us to not report more earthquakes and volcanoes.


that and the fact that flooding in japan is not something we'd only see records of now. japan has been continuously occupied by record-keeping people for quite a long time.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
1462. weatherh98
2:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Breaking News!
Emilia's ADT is above 6 again!
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:00 N Lon : 121:02:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.6mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1



nhc wont Care..
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1461. GeorgiaStormz
2:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


dude... who else could be cjfields799?


i know a c fields, but i doubt its him
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1460. RitaEvac
2:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


this happens everytime it rains heavy like this?

and iWas so close to making the mistake of living there


No, just when half a foot of rain comes down in a few hrs
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1459. weatherh98
2:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I already told you, I told have an instagram account. I don't use instagram.


dude... who else could be cjfields799?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1458. Bobbyweather
2:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Breaking News!
Emilia's ADT is above 6 again!
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:00 N Lon : 121:02:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.6mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2678
1457. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Deleted
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
1456. RitaEvac
2:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Rather have rain and flood waters that keep things alive and green
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1455. GeorgiaStormz
2:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
More pics coming in











this happens everytime it rains heavy like this?

and iWas so close to making the mistake of living there
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1454. Grothar
2:23 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1453. GeorgiaStormz
2:23 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
from the NHC, the AOI(not a real AOI) will die:

TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI
THROUGH LATE SUN THEN WEAKEN LOSING IDENTITY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE SW GULF ON MON.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1452. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:23 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


kill the phony accounts.

I already told you, I told have an instagram account. I don't use instagram.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1451. RitaEvac
2:21 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
More pics coming in









Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1450. weatherh98
2:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you want me to do about it lol.


kill the phony accounts.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1449. Grothar
2:19 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:

You should see a previous page. I posted an update stating 06E is now Fabio. (just briefly)


Hey,Bobby. When you get news like that. Make a big headline. All the other sites didn't even have it. You can really get the blog going. Good work.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1448. GeorgiaStormz
2:19 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


I checked NHC and saw 'nuttin.. yet anyway.. :)>


its not on nhc yet, but its there
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1447. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


instagram... youre the only c fields i know..

except for that cotton fields kid but he was 7 and from texas

Lol, what do you want me to do about it?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1446. weatherh98
2:16 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, the blog was slow. I had to get you guys going. There's usually 20 posts when a new storm forms.
well... its all the nhc stuff but you kick started the blog
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1445. schwankmoe
2:15 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting CJ5:


I agree. This is off-topic. So, prior to Citizens United, media and unions were allowed to support candidates and positions but corporations were not. CU leveled the playing field. I submit that corporations are people just as much as unions are people. The first amendment does not mean free speech is limited to only individuals but includes groups of people, the media, unions and now corporations.


no. prior to CU, unions and corporations were both allowed to support candidates and positions. just to a limited degree. they both could support positions all they wanted, and endorse candidates if they wished, but monetarily the organizations were limited in their expenditures towards specific candidates' campaigns. CU effectively removed those limits. now unions and corporations can pour as much money as they want into the political system. suffice it to say, corporations tend to have much more money lying around than unions do, as the expenditures in this cycle are showing.

CU did not 'level the playing field' making it 'fair' for corporations. it was already fair. CU basically took an already-level playing field and then eliminated all the rules and fired the refs.

most of the pro-CU people are merely rationalizing breaking the system because now it's broken in their favor.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
1444. GeorgiaStormz
2:15 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
lol, i just remembered you can use hurricane.gov, forever ive been typnig www.nhc.noaa.gov being sure to put the www.

wonder if the spc has one besides spc.noaa.gov
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1443. Grothar
2:15 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


you sound like TWC with all the hype :P


Hey, the blog was slow. I had to get you guys going. There's usually 20 posts when a new storm forms.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1442. weatherh98
2:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh?


instagram... youre the only c fields i know..

except for that cotton fields kid but he was 7 and from texas
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1441. pcola57
2:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.


I checked NHC and saw 'nuttin.. yet anyway.. :)



Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 120847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 106.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
1440. RitaEvac
2:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2012


The more you build, the more it will flood, simple fact








Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
1439. weatherh98
2:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Great theory. Of course, the fatal flaw in it is that only climate-related disasters appear to be on the upswing. That can only be laid at the feet of climate change. Or is it your contention that "this new age of technology" is only allowing us to report more floods and heat waves and the like, while somehow allowing us to not report on more earthquakes?

Huh?

One can detect an earthqwuake from the other side of the world on a siesmograph.

how ever, a flood in the tiaga may have kille 2-3 people and nobody would have ever known. now as humans expand and we could see such events on sateellite, we can see them.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1438. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I thinkim being messed with...

Huh?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1437. Bobbyweather
2:09 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.

You should see a previous page. I posted an update stating 06E is now Fabio. (just briefly)
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2678
1436. Neapolitan
2:08 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Never said anything about new record keeping. I'm saying that everything is now documented. Every tornado, every flooding event, every severe thunderstorm, etc. These events are now as they say "becoming more frequent" because of this new age of technology. Almost everyone now has the capability to take pictures or video of all that is happening both in weather and life. An EF - 3 tornado that may have torn across the middle of Kansas on May 12, 1932 went uncounted - why, because no one saw it, and it didn't effect anyone. Kind of going back to if a tree falls in a forest belief.
Great theory. Of course, the fatal flaw in it is that only climate-related disasters appear to be on the upswing (chart below). That can, of course, only be laid at the feet of climate change--unless it's somehow your contention that "this new age of technology" is only allowing us to report more floods and heat waves and the like, while somehow allowing us to not report more earthquakes and volcanoes.

Huh?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13792
1435. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:07 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Deleted
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
1434. weatherh98
2:05 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.


you sound like TWC with all the hype :P
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1433. GeorgiaStormz
2:04 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.


start us off
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1432. GeorgiaStormz
2:04 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I didn't say it'll be our next cat 5.All I'm saying is that if history teaches you anything once you have a favorable atmosphere in the Gulf with a disturbance it should be watched.Besides sst in some places in the gulf are like upper 80's to 90 degrees.


it wont be an invest
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1431. Grothar
2:03 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208

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