U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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1521. LargoFl
Quoting aspectre:
13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.
..amazing pic there
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13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like a doozie on the text maps that is :-)



Plenty of moisture with the wave.

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Daniel, now a bigger version of Jose, coming to its end and your nearest theater.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Long trackers to Texas for sure.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
They often do.

lol

On a serious note, instability this year seems to be WAY up from last year, and the current high setup is not the one we want "set in stone" with storms not ramping up until they're west of 55W... I like the idea of the split high somebody was describing earlier... gives a bit more of a chance of the Super-CVs recurving early.



its mmainly the ecmwf

still would send storms into texla
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Quoting BahaHurican:
They often do.

lol

On a serious note, instability this year seems to be WAY up from last year, and the current high setup is not the one we want "set in stone" with storms not ramping up until they're west of 55W... I like the idea of the split high somebody was describing earlier... gives a bit more of a chance of the Super-CVs recurving early.


Both highs remain strong. Nothing is recurving in this pattern.


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Quoting LargoFl:
isnt it funny how much damage and flooding came from a tropical storm here? we dont think much of a storm unless its a hurricane huh..but its not how strong a storm is to do damage, its sometimes how long..the storm sits over an area that makes for all the flooding and damage, not today..we had excessive lightning strikes AND alot of wind and rain, just a simple afternoon thunderstorm set-up..and look at the damage...from now on, I..am taking nothing for granted with ANY storm that comes to my area..geez
Some of the worst flooding we had here in the last 20 years came during June in a year when no TCs hit us... just a couple slowmoving Twaves and likely TUTT interaction... Sorta like what happened in PR earlier this year...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes. Just thought I'd pass it along. It's odd how many tests are run during season, and how few during the off-season. Well, if not odd, at least potentially confusing...


Agreed.
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Quoting weatherh98:


what if they no somethng we dont :O
They often do.

lol

On a serious note, instability this year seems to be WAY up from last year, and the current high setup is not the one we want "set in stone" with storms not ramping up until they're west of 55W... I like the idea of the split high somebody was describing earlier... gives a bit more of a chance of the Super-CVs recurving early.

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Quoting rjla67:
Here is a pic I snapped in the Oldsmar / Brooker Creek area of the storm fronts that moved through Tampa around 5pm:

Storm Pic on Twitter
Very Midwestern appearance. Nice.
Quoting Civicane49:

This is a test.
Yes. Just thought I'd pass it along. It's odd how many tests are run during season, and how few during the off-season. Well, if not odd, at least potentially confusing...
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Looks like a doozie on the text maps that is :-)

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1508. LargoFl
isnt it funny how much damage and flooding came from a tropical storm here? we dont think much of a storm unless its a hurricane huh..but its not how strong a storm is to do damage, its sometimes how long..the storm sits over an area that makes for all the flooding and damage, not today..we had excessive lightning strikes AND alot of wind and rain, just a simple afternoon thunderstorm set-up..and look at the damage...from now on, I..am taking nothing for granted with ANY storm that comes to my area..geez
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Almost the position where Daniel is, but ya. analysis surface maps show nothing near those coordinates except DANIEL near 15N 135W
I thought "test for Daniel" when I saw it.
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1506. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLC075-110045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0041.120710T2309Z-120711T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY FL-
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN LEVY COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 8312 2934 8309 2936 8295 2917 8286
2919 8309 2922 8310 2925 8309 2928 8315
2932 8315

$$
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC has been doing a lot of tests lately. Had a few majors and a Category 5 lol.


what if they no somethng we dont :O
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The NHC has been doing a lot of tests lately. Had a few majors and a Category 5 lol.
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Whaddya mean there's no MJO in the area...

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Pretty interesting how much atmosphere the wave @ 35W is impacting, it's extents are all the way up around 30N. Wonder if it will finally allow the ITCZ to come up out of the doldrums.



I was looking at the vorticity on that earlier today. Give that 5 days, and where will it be?

Starting to hear some thunder in my area now.
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1502. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1490. MAweatherboy1 12:09 AM GMT on July 11, 2012

Interesting, no mention of any disturbance on the CPHC page...

Issued: Jul 10, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Daniel, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP4 and WMO header WTPZ24. Daniel is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area late tonight.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.


Almost the position where Daniel is, but ya. analysis surface maps show nothing near those coordinates except DANIEL near 15N 135W
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Quoting skook:
Terrible storms in Brandon fl, east of Tampa this afternoon, Trees are down everywhere, during the strongest part of the storm, I saw countless Lightning strikes hitting trees, setting things on fire, poles and trees being blow over.


Yeah, man. Luckily I was west of the main action, but it looks as if it will be a rainy night in Tampa.
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........
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1499. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
The 2012 Republican National Convention will take place in Tampa Bay, Florida from August 27 - 30, 2012.

Ya'll gotta get that severe wx under control.

Though if it continues at this rate, there won't be that many older trees left to blow over. [Wondering if the long hiatus in this type of wx has allowed for less sturdy trees to flourish.]
..yes you could be right there, we havent had real bad Wind storms here in awhile, the tree's havent built up a tolerence for the winds..
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


86= TEST


Yup. I thought so.
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1497. rjla67
Here is a pic I snapped in the Oldsmar / Brooker Creek area of the storm fronts that moved through Tampa around 5pm:

Storm Pic on Twitter
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Quoting Neapolitan:
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp862012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207101403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ONE, CP, C, , , , , 86, 2012, TD, O, 2012070918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP862012
CP, 86, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1450W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1460W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1470W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1480W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1490W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S,


86= TEST
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
And finally a buckle in the ITCZ to boot, the wave behind looks like a doozie.


that may develop
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
And finally a buckle in the ITCZ to boot, the wave behind looks like a doozie.


I've heard a lot of people comparing the position of the ITCZ to 2004. Yet another similarity to that season.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..oh yes these were really bad storms, ALOT of damaga over in Tampa also..and whats bad..tomorrow the storms are supposed to be stronger
The 2012 Republican National Convention will take place in Tampa Bay, Florida from August 27 - 30, 2012.

Ya'll gotta get that severe wx under control.

Though if it continues at this rate, there won't be that many older trees left to blow over. [Wondering if the long hiatus in this type of wx has allowed for less sturdy trees to flourish.]
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1492. LargoFl
...the storms are not over folks, a whole batch of bad ones is moving up the west coast,5000 homes without power around tampa,maybe more now, not a good night for those folks
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And finally a buckle in the ITCZ to boot, the wave behind looks like a doozie.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp862012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207101403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ONE, CP, C, , , , , 86, 2012, TD, O, 2012070918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP862012
CP, 86, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1450W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1460W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1470W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1480W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1490W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S,

Interesting, no mention of any disturbance on the CPHC page...

Issued: Jul 10, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Daniel, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP4 and WMO header WTPZ24. Daniel is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area late tonight.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp862012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207101403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ONE, CP, C, , , , , 86, 2012, TD, O, 2012070918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP862012
CP, 86, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1450W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1460W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1470W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1480W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1490W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S,
Huh?
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1488. LargoFl
Quoting StAugustineFL:


If it's the first time in 15 years would it be not normal? What is normal these days? It's been an adventure up in these parts - no telling from day-to-day or week-to-week.
..yes this is a dangerous time for us here,people are still getting things somewhat back to normal after Debby,and now these severe thunderstorms,this may well be the year we get something bigger and maybe worse
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Quoting Neapolitan:
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp862012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207101403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ONE, CP, C, , , , , 86, 2012, TD, O, 2012070918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP862012
CP, 86, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1450W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1460W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1470W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1480W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1490W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S,

This is a test.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp862012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207101403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ONE, CP, C, , , , , 86, 2012, TD, O, 2012070918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP862012
CP, 86, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1450W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1460W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1470W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1480W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 86, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1490W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty interesting how much atmosphere the wave @ 35W is impacting, it's extents are all the way up around 30N. Wonder if it will finally allow the ITCZ to come up out of the doldrums.



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Some pros and cons tonight for me. NBC news actually had a top climatologist on talk about how the weather we've been experiencing in the US is not the exception, it's the new norm. So I thought that was pretty cool to see on the mainstream news for a change. Then I talked to my father who has climate change denial syndrome. He will not discuss GW with me at all, he laughs at the science without once looking at it. You know the type, they don't want to hear it, they won't hear it, and feel perfectly fine thinking they know their right without ever fact checking that assumption. Politically it's far worse than GW, my reality is not his, but I love him so we talk about family and sports. The arrogance to assume he's right without seeking is what makes me sad. He used to be a democrat my whole childhood. Now he's a Teaparty extremist. Whatever they tell him, GW, politically, doesn't matter if it's groundless or not; it's what he believes 100% as soon as he hears it. And he's by far not alone.
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Ya'll realize we went from "poof" when WE were leaving to "poof" when a storm was done to "poof" when we thought other bloggers were done...

lol now that's what I call linguistic liveliness... lol

Quoting redwagon:
My mind is occupied with: if we got this kind of soup with a 'down' MJO, imagine what might happen when we lift.. especially with Bermuda barricading off most of the NATL.
I was just looking at the imagery and thinking the same thing....

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a big secondary eyewall. Lol.


okay now is the time you scream ANNULAR
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1481. LargoFl
Quoting skook:
Terrible storms in Brandon fl, east of Tampa this afternoon, Trees are down everywhere, during the strongest part of the storm, I saw countless Lightning strikes hitting trees, setting things on fire, poles and trees being blow over.

All Pictures from Fox 13 Tampa Bay

Fox 13



Looking east from channelside(towards brandon)




Crosstown heading towards Brandon




A Home Depot, Across the street from when I work. Our parking lot had much large trees down.




Tons of emergency vehicles all over highway 60, and Falkenburg.
..oh yes these were really bad storms, ALOT of damaga over in Tampa also..and whats bad..tomorrow the storms are supposed to be stronger
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is newer microwave... Kind of blurry but you can make out the concentric eyewalls...



As long as it completes the EWRC without any big problems it could become annular tomorrow.

That's a big secondary eyewall. Lol.
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1479. LargoFl
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Storms going an odd way around here...
..pretty strong storms there
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Caribbean Storm Update July 10th 2012






Tormentas Del Caribe Julio 10 2012




source
Link
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is newer microwave... Kind of blurry but you can make out the concentric eyewalls...



As long as it completes the EWRC without any big problems it could become annular tomorrow.
u heard that first from ta13
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This is newer microwave... Kind of blurry but you can make out the concentric eyewalls...



As long as it completes the EWRC without any big problems it could become annular tomorrow.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Actually... I think I said it first...


Ive been saying it since yesterday at 1 oclock
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Rain coming down hard now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

EWRC.




Little old though.
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Quoting weatherh98:


you heard it first from me


Actually... I think I said it first...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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