U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's 9 o clock.....

i have to go to bed at 9 o clock at school nights, 10:30 in the summer time. :(
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'll keep you guys updated from my area in NC.
I wouldn't be surprised to see flood advisories.
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1569. Grothar
Looking piddly.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow every state in the southeast is covered with thunderstorms or rain.And look at N.C wow.Carolina's seem to be getting pounded.
I'll keep you guys updated from my area in NC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
1566. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.


That was a picture of a Mastodon. We didn't have Mammoths in Florida back then. I would have known.
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Wow every state in the southeast is covered with thunderstorms or rain.And look at N.C wow.Carolina's seem to be getting pounded.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Lots of boiling water around...



Look at that giant ULL.The TUTT is well established for now.
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Gotta love the parade of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific today. It's cool how you can see all the stages of a tropical cyclone's life at one time today in the below satellite photo alone. I made a little writeup about it on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/

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When should the EWRC
be over and will Emilia
restrengthen?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting weatherh98:
It has been consistent with it for now...
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Good luck there, Largo
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Does the rain in Florida bring out the mosquitoes like it does here on the Texas coast? They have been horrible here the entire summer so far. Of course the high tides coming up farther in the marsh doesn't help either.
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Quoting weatherh98:
good night

It's 9 o clock.....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706


2140 1 ENE MOUNT PLEASANT OUTER BANKS HYDE NC 3542 7607 MOTORIST REPORTED A TORNADO WHILE RIDING DOWN HWY-264 MOVING TOWARD THE PAMLICO SOUND (MHX)
2042 175 3 N TOWN 'N' COUNTRY HILLSBOROUGH FL 2805 8258 THE PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL ON SHELDON ROAD. (TBW) Is there usually golfball size hail in FL?
2032 UNK PENDLETON ANDERSON SC 3465 8278 *** 1 INJ *** A PERSON WAS TAKEN TO THE HOSPITAL AFTER BEING HIT BY A FALLING TREE ON MECHANIC STREET IN PENDLETON. EXTENT OF INJURIES UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (GSP)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1555. LargoFl
ok lights flickering again and the storms getting closer..good night everyone..tomorrow is another day.....................T. PETERSBURG --
The afternoon heat and sea breeze is helping to produce another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

The storms are expected to die down this evening.
“As we head through the evening the storms will fall apart,” said Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay.

Power outages

Officials with Tampa Electric said nearly 5,000 customers are without power. Check to see if your area is affected.

Progress Energy also reported a few hundred power outages in Citrus, Pinellas, and Pasco counties. Power is expected to be restored by 7 p.m. Check to see if your area is affected.

In Hillsborough County, officials said there are "widespread" reports of downed tree limbs and power lines in the area of east Adamo Drive.

The following major intersections either have no power, flashing lights, or debris in the roadway:

I-275 and Fowler Avenue
Busch Blvd and Florida Avenue
Nebraska Ave and Hillsborough Avenue
Hillsborough Ave and Central Avenue
Sligh Ave and Central Avenue
Fowler Ave and 30th Street
Sligh Ave and 15th Stree(tree in roadway)
Nebraska Ave and Hanna Avneue
40th St and Hillsborough Avenue
28th St Busch Blvd (tree in roadway)
Busch Blvd and Boulevard

Officials are urging drivers to treat intersections with non-working lights as a four-way stop.

Tampa International Airport is also reporting as many as a dozen delays, with some up to 2 hours. Check your flight status

Rainfall totals as of 6 p.m. Tuesday

Citrus Co.
Crystal River 1.06
Sugarmill Woods 0.05

Hernando Co.
Weeki Wachee 0.78
Brooksville 1.57

Pasco Co.
Dade City 2.16
Hudson 0.82

Hillsborough Co.
Cheval 1.35
Westchase 2.85
Town N. Country 1.02
USF 1.31
Brandon 1.08
TIA 0.14

Pinellas Co.
Pinellas Park 1.62
Feathersound .82
Palm Harbor 0.30

Manatee Co.
Palmetto 1.27
Lakewood Ranch .25

Polk Co.
Lakeland 0.41
Bartow 0.22

Although parts of the Bay area didn't get rain yesterday, many did, as thunderstorms moved along and in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Some areas, including Town & Country and areas north, took on more than two inches of rain.
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Lots of boiling water around...

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1553. LargoFl
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That booming you heard was the National League scoring 5 runs against the American League in the first inning. lol
LOL..heard it all the way down here
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Quoting LargoFl:
...........the booming in the distance has started once again, here we go again folks, hopefully it wont be as bad with the damage as before
That booming you heard was the National League scoring 5 runs against the American League in the first inning. lol
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good night
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Looks like what's left of Daniel could live some additional days....

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1548. LargoFl
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1547. LargoFl
...........the booming in the distance has started once again, here we go again folks, hopefully it wont be as bad with the damage as before
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Just as I projected.the ridge will break down.In about a week or two watch out for development near Africa.
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#1535
Freaky flooding is common in this area.
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Quoting weatherh98:


no. not really ridge holds strong the nao has been negative all year
Yes.But it won't be as strong as it has been so far this month.
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Tropical Storm Daniel:


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just as I projected.the ridge will break down.In about a week or two watch out for development near Africa.


no. not really ridge holds strong the nao has been negative all year
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1541. JNCali
Quoting Neapolitan:
For those who are wondering what's going on elsewhere across the globe as the U.S. continues to be plagued by extreme weather events, here's a brief rundown from Mongabay.com. (Bottom line: many other places are experiencing extreme weather events):And so on...

And so on...

And so on...
They don't mention Middle TN?? it's another country around this place for sure :P
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Daniel barely a Storm.

EP, 04, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1376W, 35, 1003, TS
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Quoting weatherh98:
...thats a negative ghost rider....
Just as I projected.the ridge will break down.In about a week or two watch out for development near Africa.
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1538. LargoFl
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think he nos that


:O
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Quoting weatherh98:


EWRC



i think he nos that
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1535. LargoFl
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Deleted
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
1533. LargoFl
............................oh no, here comes another line of strong storms, and worse, its supposed to continue for another 5 days or so..gee
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1531. LargoFl
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Emilia goes below Cat 3.

EP, 05, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1151W, 95, 967, HU


EWRC
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...thats a negative ghost rider....
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Emilia goes below Cat 3.

EP, 05, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1151W, 95, 967, HU
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1527. LargoFl
Quoting Sangria:
LOL...I can appreciate some of the comments about some of us folks in FL, but please don't discount the severity of some of the storms we have....

The lightning was intense today......we like the seabreeze "pop ups" but don't particularly care for the damage that can be caused by really severe weather....just like the rest of you, I would think!!!

btw...I received 2.32" here today in Pasco County, of which most of that was during a hellacious event around 2:30pm EDT....
oh yes, the lightning today was terrible, like a warzone..and more is on the way coming from the south
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1526. LargoFl
Quoting SafeInTexas:
East Texas this year is a major turn around from last year. 50% chance of rain forecasted almost every day for a week, comparatively mild temperatures, only a few days have challenged record highs. It is unfortunate the east coast is experiencing the heat now, but it is a major relief not having to fear that the country around us will burst in to flame at any moment.
..hopefully all your lakes etc will finally fill up, i know alot of folks over there were really worried just a month or two ago, good luck with your rains
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1525. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
Some of the worst flooding we had here in the last 20 years came during June in a year when no TCs hit us... just a couple slowmoving Twaves and likely TUTT interaction... Sorta like what happened in PR earlier this year...
yes its amazing how much damage can come from a simple slow moving storm
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East Texas this year is a major turn around from last year. 50% chance of rain forecasted almost every day for a week, comparatively mild temperatures, only a few days have challenged record highs. It is unfortunate the east coast is experiencing the heat now, but it is a major relief not having to fear that the country around us will burst in to flame at any moment.
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1523. Sangria
LOL...I can appreciate some of the comments about some of us folks in FL, but please don't discount the severity of some of the storms we have....

The lightning was intense today......we like the seabreeze "pop ups" but don't particularly care for the damage that can be caused by really severe weather....just like the rest of you, I would think!!!

btw...I received 2.32" here today in Pasco County, of which most of that was during a hellacious event around 2:30pm EDT....
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For those who are wondering what's going on elsewhere across the globe as the U.S. continues to be plagued by extreme weather events, here's a brief rundown from Mongabay.com. (Bottom line: many other places are experiencing extreme weather events):
Fires in Siberia: Exceptionally dry and warm conditions have led to hundreds of wildfires in Siberia this summer. Greenpeace has stated recently that the organization believes more forest has burned this year in Russia than the devastating fires of 2010.

Killer Russian floods: Fire is not the only extreme weather event in Russia this summer: an incredible flood killed 171 people in southern Russia, damaged 13,000 homes, and has created a crisis of trust for Russian political leaders. Over two days, the region of Krasnodar Krai saw as much rain as it usually sees in five months. In less than 24 hours 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of precipitation fell.

Wet Britain: The U.K. saw its wettest June on record, after an already rainy spring, leading to massive floods and property damage. Already, insurers are predicting the flood-heavy season will cost tens of millions of pounds. Forecasters predict more floods this month even as a month's worth of rain fell in 24 hours in southwestern Britain.

Battered Bangladesh: Five days of torrential downpours in Bangladesh resulted in landslides and flooding, killing 100 people and stranding 250,000. The monsoon downpours were some of the heaviest seen in recent years. Most of the fatalities occurred in landslides. Bangladesh is considered among the world's most vulnerable nations to climate change.

Drowning Assam: Tremendous flooding has also struck the Indian state of Assam. To date, the floods have inundated over 4,500 villages and killed at least 125 people. Over a million people have been forced to flee their homes during the deluges. The flooding also swamped one of India's most famous wildlife parks, Kaziranga National Parks, killing 595 animals, including 17 Indian rhinos and two Asian elephants.

Korean drought: Both North and South Korea are suffering from their worst drought on record. The drought is decimating crops and worsening an on-going food crisis in North Korea. Tens of thousands of hectares of crops have already been lost.

Hunger in the Sahel: Officials have been warning for months that weak rains and ongoing drought in the Sahel region of Africa could lead to a famine. UNICEF has said recently that 18 million people are at risk of malnutrition and starvation. The food crisis has been exacerbated by local conflict.

Floods in Nigerian port: The massive port city of Lagos has seen dramatic flooding, as have other parts of southwest Nigeria. Waters submerged houses, the airport, and roads. Seven children were killed after their school collapsed due to the heavy rains.
And so on...

And so on...

And so on...
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1521. LargoFl
Quoting aspectre:
13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.
..amazing pic there
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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