U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting spathy:


What year?


it's there. didn't read it, did you?
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Big rain coming to S FL now!!:)
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Quoting wxchaser97:


DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4N 138.3W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph





Remember Hurricane Cosme 2007???...it spent many days as a depression from July 18 to July 22
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1667. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:


DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Considering TS.Daniel's 20.1mph(32.3km/h) travel-speed against its MaximumSustainedWinds of 35knots(40mph)65km/h, I'm surprised that NHC hasn't declared Daniel to be kaput.

Derived from the 11July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
Its vector had changed from 16.7mph(26.8km/h) West to 20.1mph(32.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 1000millibars to 1003millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

Easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel
Westernmost dot on the kinked line is Daniel's final position as a Hurricane.
The next dot west on the connected line-segment is where Daniel became a TropicalStorm again.
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii.
10July6amGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 325miles(522kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half of the blob south of the straightline)
10July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 430miles(692kilometres) South of Hawaii (Southernmost lone unconnected full dot)
10July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 312miles(503kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half of the blob south of the straightline)
11July12amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 229miles(369kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~2days9hours from now

Copy&paste 9n161w, hi25, 14.217n155.167w, 12.746n154.57w, 14.386n155.245w, san, 14.4n116.5w- 14.5n117.5w- 14.6n118.6w- 14.7n119.6w- 14.8n120.7w- 14.9n121.7w- 15.0n123.1w- 15.1n124.4w- 15.2n125.7w- 15.3n127.0w- 15.3n128.4w- 15.4n129.9w- 15.4n131.5w- 15.4n133.0w, 15.4n133.0w-15.3n134.3w, 15.3n134.3w-15.3n135.8w, 15.3n135.8w-15.4n137.6w, 15.3n135.8w-15.576n155.569w, 18.911n155.681w-15.576n155.569w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Tazmanian:




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Or: A MEDIUM CHANCE... 40 PERCENT... OF NOT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Not offical
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1664. VINNY04
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
@1447 Thanks for the reply. Maybe you are having trouble with the quote button.

Yes, there is a dip in the middle. Brought some rain today to Oklahoma. Yesterday also.

good Oklahoma needed some rain. they needed a break from this heat
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.



you can be sure that this thing is developed

:)
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting turtlehurricane:
Gotta love the parade of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific today. It's cool how you can see all the stages of a tropical cyclone's life at one time today in the below satellite photo alone. I made a little writeup about it on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/



and many people say that the storms is not gonna affect land (fish storm) even it if intensifies to cat 5, but I just wander what could happen if any boat from anywhere gets in the path of this monster.

or what if Mexico and the epac ocean flip places... all storms would impact the country, and they become strong
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@1447
Quoting redwagon:
No, you didn't, for a few years there every storm was RIP or FISH upon getting an invest.
If you look, there is a rotation all 'round TX, quite spheroid.
Thanks for the reply. Maybe you are having trouble with the quote button.

Yes, there is a dip in the middle. Brought some rain today to Oklahoma. Yesterday also.

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Heat blamed for fish kills in southern Minn. lakes


Article by: Associated Press
Updated: July 10, 2012 - 8:54 PM

ALBERT LEA, Minn. - The recent heat wave is blamed for killing thousands of fish in several southern Minnesota lakes.

Most of the lakes are shallow, and thus more susceptible to summer fish kills, and most of the fish were northern pike, which prefer cold water.

Affected waters include Geneva Lake north of Albert Lea, where Department of Natural Resources officials say several thousand northerns probably died, and Fountain Lake in Albert Lea, where hundreds of northerns floated up last weekend.

Jack Lauer, the regional fisheries manager in New Ulm, says he's heard of about 10 to 15 affected lakes. He says populations will recover.

Henry Drewes, the regional fisheries manager for northwestern Minnesota, says some waters around Alexandria have also seen fish kills, including Lake Christina and the Pomme de Terre (pom-duh-TAIR') River.
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1658. nigel20
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Hi Nigel

The SST's seems to have cooled a bit in sections of the equatorial pacific...I'm wondering if el nino will be pushed back to a later time frame...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting charlottefl:
From the SPC from the earlier storms in Tampa:

2015 UNK 3 WNW BRANDON HILLSBOROUGH FL 2794 8234 POWER POLES SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FALKENBURG ROAD AND HIGHW


As of right now it doesn't appear that there was any tornado touch downs, just powerful downdrafts.

We don't even have cold air aloft or technically a favorable atmosphere for any severe weather. This severe weather is purely from strong sea breeze convergence, warm water temps, and lots of daytime heating, as it often is this time of year. Which is why you never see severe weather outlooks for us for these events. It's a lower level and local based cause, as apposed to a synoptic situation that can be anticipated.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110238
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED
IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND
TRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

EMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND
A FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
1654. VINNY04
Quoting RussianWinter:
I know this is a bit off topic, but I was researching some meteorological history and I was wondering how often do events like the great blizzard of 1899 happen.
I'd sure like to see that in my life time; snow in Miami!
Not in your life!!!!! Then that means Tampa will look like antarctica or somewthing like that
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...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 5 15 33
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 5 24 34 36
TROPICAL STORM 1 13 30 52 58 46 29
HURRICANE 99 87 69 43 14 6 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 37 56 48 32 11 6 2
HUR CAT 2 55 23 15 7 2 X X
HUR CAT 3 6 7 5 3 X X X
HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 75KT 65KT 50KT 40KT 30KT



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
I know this is a bit off topic, but I was researching some meteorological history and I was wondering how often do events like the great blizzard of 1899 happen.
I'd sure like to see that in my life time; snow in Miami!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
1650. nigel20
...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


they sure did!


The first time I saw it I honestly thought it was gonna crash, cause there's not an airport anywhere in town there.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 115.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


Hi Nigel
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1646. nigel20
..DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110231
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER
SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting charlottefl:
Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:








More like got its butt wiped, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 138.3W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Quoting charlottefl:


They still fly planes over Bonita Springs, not sure if they're DC 3's or not. They kinda remind me a little of the hurricane hunter planes, and they fly LOW.


they sure did!
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1639. nigel20
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Or as I say ineresting

Hey Joe. What's up?
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Quoting Buhdog:
HMmmmmmm, here is in Cape Coral (swfl) low level clouds are streaming south? Wonder if a low is forming south or east of us.


What you are most likely seeing is low level flow from the north due to a large are of heavy thunderstorms from earlier, you can get consistent thunderstorm outflow persisting long after they over sometimes. I've seen that happen many times before.
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Hawaii waits for dying Daniel....




Meanwhile:

Russia Sends Warships to Mediterranean

Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Just came back on to say we have some thunder / lightning happenin w/ that approaching storm cloud.

Could get interesting tonight... lol


Or as I say ineresting
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1634. VINNY04
Quoting andfol91:
I hope you all are enjoying that weather. It's beautiful in South Central PA. :D
you better enjoy it before it gets hot up there! your on the right blog andfol91
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What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
I hope you all are enjoying that weather. It's beautiful in South Central PA. :D
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1631. VINNY04
Quoting charlottefl:
Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:





You reckon? i say it did.
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1628. nigel20
Good evening everyone!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Anyone in here from Naples FL right now? When I lived there they used to fly the DC-3'S over the city with a diesel/whatever insecticide they used to kill em. Kinda like Robert Duval smelling the napalm in Apocalypse Now and saying " It smells like victory".


They still fly planes over Bonita Springs, not sure if they're DC 3's or not. They kinda remind me a little of the hurricane hunter planes, and they fly LOW.
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Just came back on to say we have some thunder / lightning happenin w/ that approaching storm cloud.

Could get interesting tonight... lol
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Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:





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1624. Buhdog
f I stare at and zoom into this loop, its looks like a developing storm with flare ups and rotation near naples...

or I am a homer. More likely...

Link

I was just thrown off by the low level clouds going in the opposite direction as the storms earlier.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looking at the loops 98E has gotten a lot more organized recently and should be bumped up to 90% or more next TWO.
Heck one could say 98E looks better than ts Daniel right now.

VS.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
From the SPC from the earlier storms in Tampa:

2015 UNK 3 WNW BRANDON HILLSBOROUGH FL 2794 8234 POWER POLES SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FALKENBURG ROAD AND HIGHW
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Quoting wxchaser97:
TS Jose

Any similarities
TS Daniel


Daniel is more bigger...lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.