U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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1716 thats all I can do. You can still post images and links if you know the basic format. Images are and links I don't know.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1720. VINNY04
Ok everyone im signing out for today. hope your blogging problems clear up tonight. have a good one yall.
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1719. bappit
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Those now south easterly winds indicate a weakening of the western flank of the high. Could be some "Mischief" brewing in the Gulf.

The proper technical term is high jinks. The usage dates back to 1825.

"boisterous or rambunctious carryings-on : carefree antics or horseplay"

Also, see:

buffoonery, clownery, clowning, foolery, high jinks (also hijinks), horsing around, monkey business, monkeying, monkeyshine(s), roughhouse, roughhousing, shenanigan(s), skylarking, slapstick, tomfoolery

...and a thanks to Mary and Webster.
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i noted it has been a vary wet in some parts of Alaska so far this summer
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting RussianWinter:
I know this is a bit off topic, but I was researching some meteorological history and I was wondering how often do events like the great blizzard of 1899 happen.
I'd sure like to see that in my life time; snow in Miami!


I have also found the occurrence of snow (and other frozen precip.) in Florida, especially Miami, to be an interesting subject to research. Snow is assumed to have fallen in the Miami area as a result of the 1899 blizzard. Also, there is also a record of snow having fallen on the northern coast of Cuba sometime during the 1800s as well as a record in the Bermuda Gazette that snow fell in Bermuda in March of 1784.

Snow flurries were also reported across South Florida (including Miami and Miami Beach) during January 1977. This same cold wave brought a mix of rain and snow to Freeport in the Bahamas. Finally, in January 2010, the cold wave, which I remember very well, brought sleet and snow to areas of Florida as far south as W. Palm Beach to Kendall, a suburb of Miami.
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1716. VINNY04
What did you do about it? justwait for a new page?
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Post 1714: I am having the same issues, also cant bold, italicize, link, or post images. Happened on the last page as well.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1714. VINNY04
Well i dont know what to do about it but now i cant quote anyone or nothing so i got to sign out. maybe if i reboot my pc then it will work
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1713. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:
Climate Change May Lead to Fewer but More Violent Thunderstorms

ScienceDaily (July 10, 2012) — Researchers are working to identify exactly how a changing climate will impact specific elements of weather, such as clouds, rainfall, and lightning. A Tel Aviv University researcher has predicted that for every one degree Celsius of warming, there will be approximately a 10 percent increase in lightning activity.

This could have negative consequences in the form of flash floods, wild fires, or damage to power lines and other infrastructure, says Prof. Colin Price, Head of the Department of Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at Tel Aviv University. In an ongoing project to determine the impact of climate change on the world's lightning and thunderstorm patterns, he and his colleagues have run computer climate models and studied real-life examples of climate change, such as the El Nino cycle in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, to determine how changing weather conditions impact storms.

An increase in lightning activity will have particular impact in areas that become warmer and drier as global warming progresses, including the Mediterranean and the Southern United States, according to the 2007 United Nations report on climate change. This research has been reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Atmospheric Research, and has been presented at the International Conference on Lightning Protection.

From the computer screen to the real world

When running their state-of-the-art computer models, Prof. Price and his fellow researchers assess climate conditions in a variety of real environments. First, the models are run with current atmospheric conditions to see how accurately they are able to depict the frequency and severity of thunderstorms and lightning in today's environment. Then, the researchers input changes to the model atmosphere, including the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (a major cause of global warming) to see how storms are impacted.

To test the lightning activity findings, Prof. Price compared their results with vastly differing real-world climates, such as dry Africa and the wet Amazon, and regions where climate change occurs naturally, such as Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where El Nino causes the air to become warmer and drier. The El Nino phenomenon is an optimal tool for measuring the impact of climate change on storms because the climate oscillates radically between years, while everything else in the environment remains constant.

"During El Nino years, which occur in the Pacific Ocean or Basin, Southeast Asia gets warmer and drier. There are fewer thunderstorms, but we found fifty percent more lightning activity," says Prof. Price. Typically, he says,we would expect drier conditions to produce less lightning. However, researchers also found that while there were fewer thunderstorms, the ones that did occur were more intense.

Fire and flood warning

An increase in lightning and intense thunderstorms can have severe implications for the environment, says Prof. Price. More frequent and intense wildfires could result in parts of the US, such as the Rockies, in which many fires are started by lightning. A drier environment could also lead fires to spread more widely and quickly, making them more devastating than ever before. These fires would also release far more smoke into the air than before.

Researchers predict fewer but more intense rainstorms in other regions, a change that could result in flash-flooding, says Prof. Price. In Italy and Spain, heavier storms are already causing increased run-off to rivers and the sea, and a lack of water being retained in groundwater and lakes. The same is true in the Middle East, where small periods of intense rain are threatening already scarce water resources.

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by American Friends of Tel Aviv University.


Very interesting article...Thanks for posting it, Sunline!
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1711. nigel20
Quoting VINNY04:
I know this is off topic but does anyone else have the problem where the show/hide button dissapears off the side of someone elses blog entry? My computer keeps doing this and its frustrating!

No, I'm not sure what's causing your problem...
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Climate Change May Lead to Fewer but More Violent Thunderstorms

ScienceDaily (July 10, 2012) — Researchers are working to identify exactly how a changing climate will impact specific elements of weather, such as clouds, rainfall, and lightning. A Tel Aviv University researcher has predicted that for every one degree Celsius of warming, there will be approximately a 10 percent increase in lightning activity.

This could have negative consequences in the form of flash floods, wild fires, or damage to power lines and other infrastructure, says Prof. Colin Price, Head of the Department of Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at Tel Aviv University. In an ongoing project to determine the impact of climate change on the world's lightning and thunderstorm patterns, he and his colleagues have run computer climate models and studied real-life examples of climate change, such as the El Nino cycle in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, to determine how changing weather conditions impact storms.

An increase in lightning activity will have particular impact in areas that become warmer and drier as global warming progresses, including the Mediterranean and the Southern United States, according to the 2007 United Nations report on climate change. This research has been reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Atmospheric Research, and has been presented at the International Conference on Lightning Protection.

From the computer screen to the real world

When running their state-of-the-art computer models, Prof. Price and his fellow researchers assess climate conditions in a variety of real environments. First, the models are run with current atmospheric conditions to see how accurately they are able to depict the frequency and severity of thunderstorms and lightning in today's environment. Then, the researchers input changes to the model atmosphere, including the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (a major cause of global warming) to see how storms are impacted.

To test the lightning activity findings, Prof. Price compared their results with vastly differing real-world climates, such as dry Africa and the wet Amazon, and regions where climate change occurs naturally, such as Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where El Nino causes the air to become warmer and drier. The El Nino phenomenon is an optimal tool for measuring the impact of climate change on storms because the climate oscillates radically between years, while everything else in the environment remains constant.

"During El Nino years, which occur in the Pacific Ocean or Basin, Southeast Asia gets warmer and drier. There are fewer thunderstorms, but we found fifty percent more lightning activity," says Prof. Price. Typically, he says,we would expect drier conditions to produce less lightning. However, researchers also found that while there were fewer thunderstorms, the ones that did occur were more intense.

Fire and flood warning

An increase in lightning and intense thunderstorms can have severe implications for the environment, says Prof. Price. More frequent and intense wildfires could result in parts of the US, such as the Rockies, in which many fires are started by lightning. A drier environment could also lead fires to spread more widely and quickly, making them more devastating than ever before. These fires would also release far more smoke into the air than before.

Researchers predict fewer but more intense rainstorms in other regions, a change that could result in flash-flooding, says Prof. Price. In Italy and Spain, heavier storms are already causing increased run-off to rivers and the sea, and a lack of water being retained in groundwater and lakes. The same is true in the Middle East, where small periods of intense rain are threatening already scarce water resources.

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by American Friends of Tel Aviv University.
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1708. VINNY04
I know this is off topic but does anyone else have the problem where the show/hide button dissapears off the side of someone elses blog entry? My computer keeps doing this and its frustrating!
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Those now south easterly winds indicate a weakening of the western flank of the high. Could be some "Mischief" brewing in the Gulf.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


You can almost set your watch to it in relation to cyclones. Funny the pulse weakens in the EPAC so do the storms.


If the MJO comes to the West.Hem and africa in late july or beginning in August as is predicted, we are going to see a lot of invests getting out of africa
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Caribbean Storm Update July 10th 2012






Tormentas Del Caribe Julio 10 2012




source
Link
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NAM
36HR
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Quoting VINNY04:
good Oklahoma needed some rain. they needed a break from this heat
Thanks.
Actually, a pretty normal summer this year. Nothing off the charts temp-wise and lots of good rain since last fall. Pockets of leftover drought may start to build again but this summer so far is just fine, fine superfine compared to 2011. Last summer, we'd had no rain to speak of since the previous October. Exceptional drought over two-thirds of the state. June, July and August with an occasional low temp below 90. Once the rainfall started last September, everything changed. Thank goodness.

Other areas of the U.S. may suffer this year. I feel for them.
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000
FXUS62 KMFL 110235
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. HAVE TRENDED
POPS SCATTERED ALONG THE PALM BEACHES TO ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE
HRRR DOES SHOW THE CURRENT TREND WELL AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACTIVITY ONSHORE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS
THERE. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE FLOW BELOW 700 MB HAS
GONE FROM EASTERLY THIS MORNING TO NOW SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE 6-15K FT LAYER/STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. STILL...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA


Current CAPE

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I feel ya, it is beautiful in SE MI and will be for the next few days. The heat will be returning but not as bad as before. Welcome to the blog.
Quoting andfol91:
I hope you all are enjoying that weather. It's beautiful in South Central PA. :D
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Good evening...

New tropical Atlantic update on my blog just released...as I have been doing daily. I highlight a couple of areas in my intro statement tonight...none of which appear serious at this time...
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Quoting stormchaser19:


The MJO is clearly in Indian ocean


You can almost set your watch to it in relation to cyclones. Funny the pulse weakens in the EPAC so do the storms.
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If it develops and goes to FL we will be at 5 and 3! lol
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1695. wxmod
Soot on Greenland ice sheet. MODIS today

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


"No MJO For You" Move Along!



The MJO clearly is in Indian ocean
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1691. VINNY04
Plant City Weather at a Glance Updated 34 sec ago
Weather Station - report
South Plant City, Plant CityElevation
98 ft
Report Station You are about to report this weather station for bad data.

Please select the information which is incorrect and click 'Submit' otherwise click 'Cancel'.
Temperature Pressure Wind Forecast Submit — Cancel

Station Select Now
Light DrizzleTemperature
72.9 °F
Feels Like 72.9 °F Wind(mph)
0.0 Sunrise / Set
6:39 AM8:27 PMMoon
Waning GibbousMore Astronomy
Tonight
72 °F
Chance of T-storms
30% chance of precipitationTomorrow
91 °F
T-storms
60% chance of precipitationTomorrow Night
70 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitationThursday
91 | 70 °F
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitationFriday
91 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitationSaturday
91 | 70 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
10-Day Forecast - Hourly Forecast Tomorrow is forecast to be Cooler than today.

Yeeeessssssss!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting spathy:


Even some Mojo with extra lime would be good at this point!


Love those darned things.
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Ya it rocky now for me
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Going to get rocky overnight on the east coast.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big rain coming to S FL now!!:)


Going to get rocky overnight on the east coast.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.

Definitely deserves code red now. When do you think it will develope and how strong TA13? I think around Thursday morning/midday and minimal hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we have mjo now lol!:)


"No MJO For You" Move Along!

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1683. VINNY04
Quoting RussianWinter:


It happened before and it will happen again, lol. And places like Tampa will never look like Antarctica.
just antarctica with skyscrapers
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Quoting charlottefl:


The first time I saw it I honestly thought it was gonna crash, cause there's not an airport anywhere in town there.
You should see Charleston WV from the West, you dive towards the city, and you see no airport, then just over the crest of the ridge behind the city, hidden from view until you hit the ground is the airport, right behind the crest, its an intresting landing.
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Quoting spathy:


Nope!
Completely missed it somehow LOL


lol
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Wow, did it bring anything to Hawaii. I didn't follow epac storms back then. I also didn't follow them on Twitter like I do now. Joke flag:ON


naa.. not even clouds. I so wanted to blow that storm dead once and for all.
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1678. VINNY04
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we have mjo now lol!:)
Is that rotation in that system? it looks like its trying to form something.
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New Oceanic Nino Index added for April-May-June (-0.1).

This year values are very similar to 2006 season...

Can we assume a correlation with 2006 season?

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Quoting VINNY04:
Not in your life!!!!! Then that means Tampa will look like antarctica or somewthing like that


It happened before and it will happen again, lol. And places like Tampa will never look like Antarctica.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




Remember Hurricane Cosme 2007...it spent many days as a depression from July 18 to July 22
Wow, did it bring anything to Hawaii. I didn't follow epac storms back then. I also didn't follow them on Twitter like I do now. Joke flag:ON
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Do we have mjo now lol!:)
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Joe. What's up?


Not much,just keeping tabs on things. A lot of moisture floating around the tropics,gonna see if anything other than 98E starts getting organised.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1672. VINNY04
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big rain coming to S FL now!!:)
allright! hope it comes up our way
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Quoting spathy:


What year?


it's there. didn't read it, did you?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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