U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting OldLeatherneck:

What is even more tragic, is the fact that we have elected officials in this country that are trying to obstruct dedicated scientists and researchers from publishing their works.


I agree wholeheartedly.

Especially if the scientist is anti-AGW, it is almost impossible to get anything published.

I guess that is typical of politicians in that they don't want anything published that goes against their views.

Oh well...


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Quoting Grothar:
Amazing how the North Atlantic is warmer than just South of it.



Yup the gulf stream heats up in the gulf like nobodys business! carries the warmth all the way up
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Quoting Patrap:
Climate change: Global warming is a fact
By Joel Achenbach Washington Post


Saturday night I hung out in my sauna. Actually I just sat on the front porch.


Interesting. I now have a Turkish Bath on my front porch! Just turned it back on after heavy rains yesterday and this morning.
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Amazing how the North Atlantic is warmer than just South of it.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Thanks for the informative update on the US gereral weather statistics.
I cut this line out of the blog:-
"However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record."
Questions must be are the general public begining to ask questions about what is causing this? Or are the generally too preocupied with other things!
I would chance to say that in addition to these heat waves, there will also be a lot of wet records from around the world by the end of this year.
Who knows what else is going to be in store!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
After almost rain all day, it's 73 degrees, don't remember the last day of that temperature. Heat index is 76, but that's still beautiful compared to 100+. Louisiana doesn't normally have this temp in daylight in July. Lovin it!


daily record lowest high?
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Thanks Dr. M for the second entry today. I do not suppose that any respectable climate scientist can state 100% whether these recent extremes (I remember the extreme heat wave in Russia last year) can be definitively linked to human based emissions, or, a natural earth cycle but the evidence seems to be leading in the same direction. If it is indeed true that these extreme anomalys are in fact related to human causes, then one would have to conclude that the Earth may have reached the "tipping point" over the last decade or so. The next 20 years is going to be most interesting.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
After almost rain all day, it's 73 degrees, don't remember the last day of that temperature. Heat index is 76, but that's still beautiful compared to 100+. Louisiana doesn't normally have this temp in daylight in July. Lovin it!
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Climate change: Global warming is a fact
By Joel Achenbach Washington Post


Saturday night I hung out in my sauna. Actually I just sat on the front porch. It was 101 degrees at 8:15 p.m., according to the Post website; while weather.com reported that it was 99 degrees. In such situations I prefer the front porch because of the veneer of civilization suggested by the street, the cars, the other houses. The back porch views nature, which, we now know, is not our friend.

We seem to have suddenly jumped from the Holocene back to the Eocene. Soon there will be ferns and palm trees in Greenland.

It’s not climate change that worries me. It’s climate change denialism, and all other forms of anti-scientific thinking, and solution-deferring, and the covering of the eyes in hopes that it will create invisibility.

On “This Week,” George Will blamed the current heat wave on “summer,” which is certainly technically true. He seems to believe that only hysterics get concerned about climate change when the thermometer is stuck at 100 for two weeks and all-time temperature records have fallen in much of the country, and all this coming after a bizarrely winterless winter:

“You asked us -- how do we explain the heat? One word: summer. I grew up in central Illinois in a house without air conditioning. What is so unusual about this? Now, come the winter, there will be a cold snap, lots of snow, and the same guys, like E.J. [Dionne], will start lecturing us. There’s a difference between the weather and the climate. I agree with that. We’re having some hot weather. Get over it.”

I’m not sure that advanced the conversation. Yes, climate and weather are different, but E.J. didn’t argue that the heat wave is due to climate change, he merely argued that it would be prudent to assume that climate change is going to create problems for us and we should take precautions. You can argue solutions all you want, and there is abundant room for disagreement about how to respond most effectively to climate change. But to say it’s just summer is too much like the Black Night in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” saying it’s just a flesh wound.

At some point we should stop litigating the basic question of whether climate change is happening. Climate change is a fact. The spike in atmospheric CO2 is a fact. The dramatic high-latitude warming is a fact. That the trends aren’t uniform and linear, and that there are anomalies here and there, does not change the long-term pattern. The warming trend has flattened out in the last decade but probably only because of air pollution from Chinese coal-fired power plants or somesuch forcing we haven’t fully discovered (smog is hardly the long-term solution we should be seeking). The broader patterns are clear.

Models show the greatest warming spike down the road still, decades hence. Thus in a sense, saying that “this is what global warming is like” whenever we have a heat wave actually understates the problem. Having spent much of my life in Florida, I can tell you, what kills you in summer is not the temperature but the duration of the season, which lasts basically forever — into November or even December in South Florida. So, yeah, 100 degrees in July gets my attention here in DC, but so will a stretch of 85-degree high temperatures in October.

Let’s say it’s April 1999 and you’re watching a baseball game, and a guy comes to the plate who is built like the Pentagon. He is so huge he has muscles not yet described by science. His neck is as wide as his head. He swings the bat so violently that the fans hear a sonic boom. He swings and misses a lot, but when he finally connects, he hits the ball completely out of the stadium and into the players parking lot. Question: Does this mean baseball players are using steroids?

It’s an unfair question, clearly. Babe Ruth used to hit home runs like that, and he wasn’t on steroids, he was on hot dogs and beer. But the scenario I’ve described is consistent with steroid use by baseball players.

Seems to me it’s not the heat, it’s the temerity that’s our real problem – the temerity to think that we can go, quickly, from about a billion people to 7 billion, on our way to 9 billion, with dramatic increases in resource usage and energy consumption and carbon emissions and so on, without it having dramatic consequences for the planet.

My suspicion (and others will recoil from this) is that the planet in the future will have to be managed the way you run a nuclear power plant – lots of engineers, risk assessors, government oversight, a public-private partnership of sorts, with a steady eye toward low-probability but high-consequence events.

This isn’t the Thoreau view of nature, and it will incite objections from those who say we need to just pull back and stop putting so much stress on natural systems. But I think we need more science, more research, more engineering, more innovative solutions, and most of all more political leaders who understand that individual choice and free markets, though essential to modern society, by themselves will not protect the commons from long-term exploitation.

Or maybe the heat has gotten to me. I am retiring now to my fainting couch.

By Joel Achenbach | 09:29 AM ET, 07/09/2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting winter123:
I don't follow the tropics for two days and... This.

Emelia looks on its way to a major, if not there already.

Also, RIP 2012 Atlantic hurricane season?


What in the world? Nah bro! It's early July. We've got a couple of months to go.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Derived from the 9July6pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneEmilia:
Its vector had changed from 9.1mph(14.7km/h) WNWest to 13.2mph(21.2km/h) WNWest
MaxSusWinds had increased from 90knots(104mph)167km/h to 95knots(109mph)176km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 973millibars to 969millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Emilia's path...
CSL is CaboSanLucas :: The lone unlabeled dot is IslaSocorro :: ZLO is Manzanillo

The Easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalDepressionFiveEast became TS.Emilia
The Westernmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalStormEmilia became HurricaneEmilia
The ESEasternmost dot on the longest straight line-segment is H.Emilia's most recent position.

The longest straight line-segment is the straightline projection through H.Emilia's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to IslaSocorro
9July6pmGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing 370miles(595kilometres) SSWest of IslaSocorro in ~9hours from now

Copy&paste csl, zlo, lzc, zih, 10.4n102.5w- 10.7n104.0w- 10.9n105.3w- 11.2n106.7w- 11.5n107.8w- 12.0n108.7w, 12.0n108.7w-12.4n109.4w, 12.4n109.4w-12.8n110.5w, 12.4n109.4w-13.635n112.861w, 18.694n110.97w-13.635n112.861w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
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Quoting wxchaser97:
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

What are the chances of this developing into Fabio in general( not just 48hrs)?


Very good. I'd say about 75%
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I don't follow the tropics for two days and... This.

Emelia looks on its way to a major, if not there already.

epac will need Greek names by September if this keeps up. Also, RIP 2012 Atlantic hurricane season?
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Quoting Grothar:


:)


Wait no! its annular!
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the way some people talk, it sounds like animals and plants are helpless and cant adapt. A/C and zoos

nuff said

I comment on the topic no more.

Emilia looks bout as good as ever
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This afternoon's radar scatter during the Tall Ships Parade of Sail near Newport, Rhode Island.(The Parade of Sail is a farewell tour of the harbor with as many ships as possible displaying all their sails.)



Now back to your regularly scheduled hurricane season . . .

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Can see the sun halo outline in the high deep convective cloud tops over us. Middle of summer, can't complain bout that, otherwise we'd be burning up and 100 in the shade and 115 in the sun
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Quoting weatherh98:


pinhole;P


:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Grothar:
I'm not sure, but I think I see an eye.



pinhole;P
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lots of rain all over even in the desert state of texas


the desert part is dry,,,,,
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I'm not sure, but I think I see an eye.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Thanks for the update, Doc. I'm glad you clarified the temperature abnormality. I thought I was just having hot flashes again. Good graphs.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting OldLeatherneck:
Dr. Masters,

Thanks for a very sobering report and analysis. Your persistence and professionalism in keeping us, and hopefully others, informed about how AGW and the resulting Climate Change are effecting weather, locally, regionally and globally.

What is even more tragic, is the fact that we have elected officials in this country that are trying to obstruct dedicated scientists and researchers from publishing their works.

The effort to reduce GHG levels in the atmosphere with the goal of mitigating and eventually stabilizing the earth's climate must be considered the highest priority of our government.

This is no longer a matter of:
"Hugging Trees,..Saving Whales & Polar Bears,...or even Saving Pygmy Owls......"

This is now a matter of:
"Saving the Earth's Biosphere for Future Generations of Humans and the Flora and Fauna to Sustain that Existence"








Good luck with that one
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1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

What are the chances of this developing into Fabio in general( not just 48hrs)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
43. MTWX
Evening all! Loving all these scattered showers around!! Now if one would only drop some wet stuff on my place, I'd really be a happy camper!! :)

Link

Sure am glad TX is getting some too!! Now we just need to move it over to Georgia when we are finished!!

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If what models are saying when to verify we will have Fabio and Gil,a for the weekend Amazing!!! four storms in a week Imagine if it was in the Atlantic we would have Ernesto ,Florence,Gordon and Helene.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


If no threat to land, it doesn't exist to man. But if possibly destroy man and his assets, it's the end of the world and hype for all mankind


What Hawaii isn't man or land or assets? Im looking at you Emilia.....stay away!!!!!!
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Dr. Masters,

Thanks for a very sobering report and analysis. Your persistence and professionalism in keeping us, and hopefully others, informed about how AGW and the resulting Climate Change are effecting weather, locally, regionally and globally.

What is even more tragic, is the fact that we have elected officials in this country that are trying to obstruct dedicated scientists and researchers from publishing their works.

The effort to reduce GHG levels in the atmosphere with the goal of mitigating and eventually stabilizing the earth's climate must be considered the highest priority of our government.

This is no longer a matter of:
"Hugging Trees,..Saving Whales & Polar Bears,...or even Saving Pygmy Owls......"

This is now a matter of:
"Saving the Earth's Biosphere for Future Generations of Humans and the Flora and Fauna to Sustain that Existence"






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Quoting ClimateChange:
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters. Also thanks to wxchaser97 above for that info from SW Michigan, which provided a good historical perspective for the recent heat wave. Looks some more heat coming back by the weekend. Hopefully, it isn't as severe as last week.
Your welcome, I hope the heat coming over the late week/weekend isn't so bad because we baked up here and most other people were fried to a crisp. Even though I'm in Southeast MI it was still extremely hot with records broke at DTW( Detroit Metro Airport), Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lots of rain all over even in the desert state of texas


Nice to see the rains. Although it looks more scattered than what it appears in the zoomed out view. Looks like a lot of places missing out on the rain too.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


If no threat to land, it doesn't exist to man. But if possibly destroy man and his assets, it's the end of the world and hype for all mankind
....Irene....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters. Also thanks to wxchaser97 above for that info from SW Michigan, which provided a good historical perspective for the recent heat wave. Looks some more heat coming back by the weekend. Hopefully, it isn't as severe as last week.
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lots of rain all over even in the desert state of texas
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Pretty amazing what's going on across the E-Pac and no mention of it.


If no threat to land, it doesn't exist to man. But if possibly destroy man and his assets, it's the end of the world and hype for all mankind
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US forecast disscusion:
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
432 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

VALID 00Z TUE JUL 10 2012 - 00Z THU JUL 12 2012

...A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ARKLATEX WILL FOCUS AN AXIS
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...

...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT HAS
BEEN SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WHICH HAD BEEN EXPERIENCED MUCH OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION...HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL REMAIN MORE COMMONPLACE WHICH
WILL MARK TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
PUSHING BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR RISES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MEANDERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POCKETS OF HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERALL...ANY WHERE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
CAROLINAS CAN EXPECT A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
IT IS THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER...AIR-MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WARM AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OVERALL...THE MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH HAD BEEN PROVIDING A LARGE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE LESS
PROMINENT TO START THE WEEK. THE BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
REGION WILL BE AIMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UP INTO
COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IN RECENT DAYS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS A RESULT
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACKING A TOP AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THESE SLOW-MOVING BATCHES OF ENERGY WILL
WORK THEIR WAY FROM CENTRAL OREGON TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH
UNCOMMON...THIS MARKS THE BEST TIME OF YEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS PARTICULAR SETUP SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN MONTANA.

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ALLOW THE MERCURY TO RISE OVER THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. IN
PARTICULAR...THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
110S WITH POSSIBLY SOME READINGS NEARING THE 120 DEGREE MARK IN
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS. MEANWHILE...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND EXTENDING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.


RUBIN-OSTER

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This storm here is sliding up toward the Orlando International Airport.

Getting some good rains down there.It has been in it's upper 70s to low 80's around here.I'm so excited we've been begging for this.We had some good rains 'round about 2 in the morning.I got woken up by loud thunder and bright flashes of lightning.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
Quoting RitaEvac:


Welcome to TWC


Pretty amazing what's going on across the E-Pac and no mention of it.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
140mph or so still seems reasonable for a peak...


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Posible 2 new storms E of Emilia

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.

It appears the Doc doesn't give two %#%#& about whats going on in the Pacific.But this is more important.Because everyone has been feeling it.


Welcome to TWC
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This storm here is sliding up toward the Orlando International Airport.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VA. ALONG/NEAR MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE
ZONES ACROSS THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH LOWER 70S F
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN MOST AREAS. SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29015.


...GUYER/WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2 Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2" Hail
Low Low


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T.C.F.W
R.I.FLAG FLAG
05E/MH/E/C3
MARK
13.35N/112.23W
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My peeps are on!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron