U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Started raining outside Buda Texas and my current Temp is 90, LOL, talk about a Hot rain!
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The next 20 years is going to be interesting....The next 90 days is going to be real interesting.

Good Night Folks................WW.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
Quoting wxchaser97:
Eye wall reforming:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Scene Type : EYE
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


if it keeps it up it could run for CAT 5
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Eye wall reforming:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Scene Type : EYE
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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EPA wins court case on right to limit green house gases

A federal appeals court Tuesday upheld a finding by the Environmental Protection Agency that greenhouse gases pose a public health threat and require potentially costly limits from vehicles, power plants and other industrial sources.

In an unanimous decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that the federal agency is "unambiguously correct" in its use of the Clean Air Act to regulate carbon dioxide and other gases linked to global warming as pollutants - a stinging rebuke to industry and 14 states, led by Texas, that had sued to block the landmark rules. ..........

EPAWinsCourtCase
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Quoting wxchaser97:

WXYZ) - You probably knew it was hot, but now we can answer that old question "How hot was it?" for all of Michigan and the Lower 48 states.

In fact, it was the hottest first half of a year ever recorded here in Michigan. According to data just released from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the period from January to June of 2012 was the hottest since records began back in 1895.

Coming off of our very mild winter, we had the warmest March on record, with record highs as hot as 86 degrees here in metro Detroit.

By the end of June, we'd already had 11 days with highs of 90 or hotter, which is as many as we normally get in an entire summer. And the first few days of July brought two days of 100 degrees or hotter, which aren't even included in this summary.

Across the whole contiguous United States, 28 states, all of them east of the Rocky Mountains had their hottest January-June period on record. Washington State was the only state in the Lower 48 to have a cooler-than-average first half of 2012.

An unusually strong an persistent area of high pressure was a big part of the reason for all the heat during the last six months, as it pushed the jet stream much farther north than normal. Many meteorologists note that this is the sort of weather that we can expect to become more common as climate change continues.

The First Alert Weather Team continues to be the most accurate at predicting these record-breaking temperatures, and we'll keep you up-to-date no matter what comes our way.



Read more: http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/its-official-first-ha lf-of-2012-was-hottest-ever-recorded-in-michigan-a nd-us#ixzz20ARXYwAy from WXYZ in detroit.
, see, when did actual temps actually start being recordedf? a mere 100-150 yerars ago? maybe even 2 hundred years ago, in earths history, that is a mere blink of an eye,we humans here today, have no real idea, of what IS normal, we can surely make a good guess,but in the blink of an eye, our knowledge is only guesswork,the earth moves from cold periods to warm periods, and my guess is..we are headed into the warm period in her history, end of story, mans envolvement in her temps is only temporary in her life cycle..a mere blink of an eye in her time zone...yes, ferns will grow in greenland, as they did eons ago,WE..must adapt to the changes, not the earth, if we dont...we go the way of the dinosaurs...poof..end of story
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Quoting spathy:


I thought you would be over hot flashes by now.
Or is it a centennial recurrence?

Reality is a state of mind, brought about by the absence of prescription drugs!
Last flicker of the battery, Im really out for the night now.
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The blog is dead?
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The radar right now looks other worldly
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Quoting Patrap:
Also there is no StormW.

He got booted a year ago almost.

So, so much for being "Up" on tings here.

Enjoy your blogging though.


Oh, the Sr Chief is around....google and ye shall find. ;)
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Quoting weatherh98:
the way some people talk, it sounds like animals and plants are helpless and cant adapt. A/C and zoos

nuff said

I comment on the topic no more.


Assuming that you are not completely illiterate about what transpired during interglacials the past 800,000 years or so, you are aware that most climate transitions occurred at rates much slower than what we may be facing which allowed plants and animals to move, adapt and follow normal evolutionary paths. Many did not adapt, subsequently they faced extinctions. You may or may not be aware that going back many millions of years there have been mass extinction events.

There is serious concern that we may be entering a phase of very rapid and extreme climate change that will occur more rapidly than many species can adapt to either by migrating or evolving.

You mentioned with no small sarcasm...."A/C or Zoos".

Go ahead and plan for a means to provide A/C for 9 billion people and then Zoos for every living creature.

Glad to hear that you're not going to comment on this any more!! You're not qualified to comment on this!! Is it willful ignorance or blissful ignorance??

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Warm in the Artic also.

Artic Sea Ice
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.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
106. JLPR2
Quoting floridaboy14:

notice el nino hasnt been stregnthining. cfs model showed a moderate el nino by july yet we are still warm neutral. i think this el nino will be postponed into late september what do you guys think?


It looked like El Niño was gaining steam but then it leveled out, keeping us in neutral for the moment.



Depending on how strong and when El Niño forms our season could be quiet or it could be active with an early end.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Can see the sun halo outline in the high deep convective cloud tops over us. Middle of summer, can't complain bout that, otherwise we'd be burning up and 100 in the shade and 115 in the sun
Stop telling everyone how the Weather is in South Central Texas outside the widely scattered storms in our area, in the shade here today it hit 104 still not even a trace of rain but the temps have dropped below 100 finally. I am glad a few areas of Texas arent suffering though that is a change from last year. I am still hoping for a tropical system to fill up the Lakes but chances of that happening are slim.
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Ive got to bale out now, as Im in the bush on a bad satalite link but The US has got heat waves, a lot of Europe has got floods and Im having to cope with 100F on the Mediterrainian coast, etc, etc.
This is a sure indicator of warming equals more mositure, more rain, more mysery.
more cover ups! Of course a lot of it could be down to badly sited weather stations?
Night everybody.
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When are we going to see Yukon make an appearance?
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Quoting weatherh98:


daily record lowest high?


No idea, sorry. It's generally in the mid to uppper 90's at this time of year, cooler to the 70's during the day only after a hard rain that lasts a couple of hours.
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I've made a blog update on Daniel and Emilia. Enjoy!

Hurricane Daniel continues to weaken; Emilia rapidly strengthens
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Quoting clamshell:


...if the scientist is anti-AGW, it is almost impossible to get anything published.


You sound fairly confident. Can you provide some examples of legit research that went unpublished because it was "anti-AGW"? I'm genuinely curious to know what you've heard.

There are a gagillion journals and professional conferences out there - finding one to accept your publication is relatively easy... heck, even I managed to publish a peer-reviewed paper. In my experience, the only thing that will keep you from getting published is making statements that cannot be backed up by the available evidence.
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Emilia

22:00 UTC Viz

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Quoting Patrap:
Also there is no StormW.

He got booted a year ago almost.

So so much for being "Up" on tings here.


this is what most "offseason" blogs are like anyway!
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Also there is no StormW.

He got booted a year ago almost.

So, so much for being "Up" on tings here.

Enjoy your blogging though.
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For West Palm Beach...

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Quoting Autistic2:
Me thinks Dr. Masters is better of finically, but no longer independent on his blog subject matter. With TWC footing the bills I think they are also calling the shots. That’s just the way life works.

As the Atlantic season heats up I am sure we will see more tropical weather blogs.

At non peak Atlantic times I may have to sneak over to see Levi or Storm W .


Your so wrong its laughable sport.

LOL,LMAO..yada, yada,yada..

How will the merger with The Weather Channel improve wunderground?

The Weather Channel is committed to keeping the Weather Underground brand and the web site in its current form. Weather Underground CEO Alan Steremberg will remain in charge, and our meteorologists and developers will continue to create the ground-breaking weather products that we're renowned for. The plan is to make both wunderground.com and weather.com stronger, by sharing content and infrastructure.

Many Weather Underground features, such as our Personal Weather Station data, WunderMap, and my blog, are scheduled to also appear on the weather.com web site in the coming months. My blog's main home will continue to be wunderground.com, and I have been asked to continue to write the same variety of science-based posts on hurricanes, extreme weather, and climate change that I've provided since 2005.

I enjoy communicating weather science, and am pleased I will be able to do this for both wunderground and The Weather Channel, which has an audience about three times as large as wunderground's.
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WXYZ) - You probably knew it was hot, but now we can answer that old question "How hot was it?" for all of Michigan and the Lower 48 states.

In fact, it was the hottest first half of a year ever recorded here in Michigan. According to data just released from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the period from January to June of 2012 was the hottest since records began back in 1895.

Coming off of our very mild winter, we had the warmest March on record, with record highs as hot as 86 degrees here in metro Detroit.

By the end of June, we'd already had 11 days with highs of 90 or hotter, which is as many as we normally get in an entire summer. And the first few days of July brought two days of 100 degrees or hotter, which aren't even included in this summary.

Across the whole contiguous United States, 28 states, all of them east of the Rocky Mountains had their hottest January-June period on record. Washington State was the only state in the Lower 48 to have a cooler-than-average first half of 2012.

An unusually strong an persistent area of high pressure was a big part of the reason for all the heat during the last six months, as it pushed the jet stream much farther north than normal. Many meteorologists note that this is the sort of weather that we can expect to become more common as climate change continues.

The First Alert Weather Team continues to be the most accurate at predicting these record-breaking temperatures, and we'll keep you up-to-date no matter what comes our way.



Read more: http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/its-official-first-ha lf-of-2012-was-hottest-ever-recorded-in-michigan-a nd-us#ixzz20ARXYwAy from WXYZ in detroit.
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Me thinks Dr. Masters is better of finically, but no longer independent on his blog subject matter. With TWC footing the bills I think they are also calling the shots. That’s just the way life works.

As the Atlantic season heats up I am sure we will see more tropical weather blogs.

At non peak Atlantic times I may have to sneak over to see Levi or Storm W .
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Quoting floridaboy14:

notice el nino hasnt been stregnthining. cfs model showed a moderate el nino by july yet we are still warm neutral. i think this el nino will be postponed into late september what do you guys think?


Still to early to tell IMHO. We will have to see what the picture looks like towards the end of this month and in mid-August when Gray & Company issue their August update.......I am sure they will look at that issue closely (I think they release the Aug update around the 15th).
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
73. wxchaser97 6:15 PM EDT on July 09, 2012

These type of storm "clusters" are common on the Atlantic side of ball as well during the Cape Verde season........We cannot discount that possibility down the road in a few months. The Atlantic season could shut down early due to El Nino but we could get a cluster of 2-3 Cape Verde canes during the peak period before sheer picks up in later September-October.
Yeah, I can remember a few times thats happened and not just 2005. If my teen brain remembers correctly it happened in 2008 and anything really before I can't remember as well since I was still in elementary school(I'm 15 in August and my name is the I storm this year).
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notice el nino hasnt been stregnthining. cfs model showed a moderate el nino by july yet we are still warm neutral. i think this el nino will be postponed into late september what do you guys think?
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

NCC077-145-181-092245-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-120709T2245Z/
GRANVILLE NC-PERSON NC-VANCE NC-
607 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN VANCE...EASTERN PERSON AND NORTHERN GRANVILLE
COUNTIES...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK
HILL...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OXFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BETHEL HILL...DABNEY...
HENDERSON...STOVALL...KERR LAKE AND TUNGSTEN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 206 AND 215.

IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...GET INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL DOWN TREES AND CAN BRING DOWN POWER LINES. REMEMBER THAT TREES
OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM LIGHTNING OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3631 7839 3629 7896 3655 7894 3655 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 210DEG 15KT 3638 7866

$$

DJF
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Better break out the boats then! Thunderstorm coverage will be even much higher the next 7 days then it has been.
..on the good side of things, we broke thru the drought with all these rains and storms the last few weeks
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sigh...

I guess some dont see how big Irene was supposed to be. It was the sixth costliest hurricane ever to hot the Is, and that's when it fell well short of intensity forecasts because dry air got entrained during an EWRC.


it was a cat 3 pretty close to land... you know, it went well, right over your house
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


This is on top of 2.54" yesterday. My rain guage today says 3.20". If this keeps up we will be floating in and around Wekiva Springs.


Better break out the boats then! Thunderstorm coverage will be even much higher the next 7 days then it has been.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
....Irene....

Sigh...

I guess some dont see how big Irene was supposed to be. It was the sixth costliest hurricane ever to hot the Is, and that's when it fell well short of intensity forecasts because dry air got entrained during an EWRC.
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73. wxchaser97 6:15 PM EDT on July 09, 2012

These type of storm "clusters" are common on the Atlantic side of ball as well during the Cape Verde season........We cannot discount that possibility down the road in a few months. The Atlantic season could shut down early due to El Nino but we could get a cluster of 2-3 Cape Verde canes during the peak period before sheer picks up in later September-October.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
ST. PETERSBURG --
The Bay area saw a round of intense thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

The potential for some wet weather is not over yet, as Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay said rain chances stay at 30 percent tonight. More moisture is expected Tuesday and for the rest of the week.
Early today, residents in Clearwater and Largo woke up to heavy rains and lightning. A storm moved slowly through that area, dropping more than a half-inch of rain in Clearwater and Largo.

The storms then pounded Pinellas County beaches from Clearwater Beach south to St. Pete Beach.
Rain totals through 3 p.m. Monday
Hillsborough Co:
Westchase 2.11
Citrus Park 1.23

Pinellas Co.
Palm Harbor 2.21
Oldsmar 2.36

Pasco Co.
Land O Lakes 2.98
Trinty 1.64

Hernando Co.
Spring Hill 1.23
Weeki Wachee 1.63

Citrus Co.
Sugarmill Woods 0.79
Lecanto 0.14

Manatee Co.
Holmes Beach 1.46
W. Bradenton 0.50
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Classic stormy day around Tampa Bay, with a lot more of these days to come!
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Heres another good line from the blog heading:-
"Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations."
They will be claiming that the cause of the Artic ice cap melting, is a result of the "Poor siting of the North Pole," Next!
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484...

VALID 092153Z - 092330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY
ERN PORTIONS OF WW 484.

DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY CORES WITHIN WW 484 HAVE LARGELY REMAINED
WEAKER RELATIVE TO TSTMS FARTHER E/SE IN WW 483. SEVERAL
INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPARENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR FOCUSING RENEWED UPDRAFTS.
THIS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW GIVEN POCKET OF
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S SURFACE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED INVOF THE I-74/77
CORRIDORS NEAR/NW OF GSO. WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER WLYS SAMPLED
IN THE FCX VWP /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/...ACTIVITY SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...SUGGESTING LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 07/09/2012


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 37218027 37037907 36717863 36307875 35657946 36038120
36308149 36748122 36988096 37218027
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The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
AOI OVER TEXAS
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/
http://www.thedwu.com/

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Quoting cyclonekid:


Very good. I'd say about 75%
Thanks, that would be amazing if 3 storms were occurring at the same time. In fact, here is a look at the 2 storms now: Daniel go bye-bye from dry air.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.0mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.0

I still think a cat4 with 140-150mph winds is the peak.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This storm here is sliding up toward the Orlando International Airport.

..amazing day of storms in florida today huh, quiet here by me now
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Quoting OldLeatherneck:

What is even more tragic, is the fact that we have elected officials in this country that are trying to obstruct dedicated scientists and researchers from publishing their works.


I agree wholeheartedly.

Especially if the scientist is anti-AGW, it is almost impossible to get anything published.

I guess that is typical of politicians in that they don't want anything published that goes against their views.

Oh well...


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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