U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting spathy:


Nice picture of China.
They are going to be cooperative now arent they?
I am sure when America cant afford to rub two sticks together the Chinese will limit their emissions.
And then the World will see reductions in co2.
When we USA quits buying all of their Walmart junk mabe they will clean up their act!!
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SAB and TAFB came back with T5.5/120 mph at 0Z. We have a major hurricane on our hands.

UW-CIMSS is at Category 4 intensity...



...close.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's pretty hostile out there right now, except the Gulf...


Moisture is high in the Gulf as well.All you need is a disturbance.Someone mentioned a tropical wave moving into the gulf.
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It's pretty hostile out there right now, except the Gulf...


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Quoting wxchaser97:
I couldn't agree any more, it will happen. All it takes is one storm and its a totally different ballgame.
Irene last year is a good example.Without Irene I honestly don't think we'll be even referring to the season.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




with in the next few days when the E storm moves closer a way
Sounds good, hopefully it takes the same path as Daniel and Emilia so Mexico doesn't take another hit this year. Then look in the Atlantic in a couple weeks and storms should begin to form.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate that people are writing off this season so fast just because it's not active,and the east pacific seems to be producing like crazy at the moment.But when a hurricane comes ah knock'in at their door don't be surprised.The Atlantic will have it's time.It just takes TIME.And it's July.Climo is winning right now.In two weeks look out over by Africa or under your nose in the caribbean...
I couldn't agree any more, it will happen. All it takes is one storm and its a totally different ballgame.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting Tazmanian:



we have are own life other then this blog if you dont mine we are all busy doing other things

I didn't mean it that seriously. :|

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Yes it does, when do you think it will develope into a TD or TS Fabio?




with in the next few days when the E storm moves closer a way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114063
Quoting ncstorm:


um humm..LOL!
I hate that people are writing off this season so fast just because it's not active,and the east pacific seems to be producing like crazy at the moment.But when a hurricane comes ah knock'in at their door don't be surprised.The Atlantic will have it's time.It just takes TIME.And it's July.Climo is winning right now.In two weeks look out over by Africa or under your nose in the caribbean...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting Tazmanian:





per 98E loooks good
Yes it does, when do you think it will develope into a TD or TS Fabio?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting thelmores:
This GW clap-trap/ argument is getting so old!!!

Who was responsible for global warming BEFORE man entered the industrial age?

Of course the Globe is warming....... and in my opinion in my life time, we will see just as dramatic a global cooling (just my opinion.....)

So the Globe is warming, what do we do about it? I support the "common sense" approach......

If we can cut emissions by 95%, and it cost "x"...... I get it! But do not tell me we should cut emissions from 95% to 98% and pay "5x".......

The arrogance of Men to believe that they can "change" the climate, without spending us all into the poorhouse......

Many say my position makes me an idiot.....

Get this! I want clean air, clean water......what I don't want to see, is the price of my electricity and gasoline to double, even triple...... all in the sake of "fighting" GW!

Many on the left support a "gas tax", to raise the price of gasoline so high, that it cuts demand...... and reduces emissions...... I am guessing these same folks would have no problem paying $6, $9, or even more for a gallon of gas! Or watch their power bill double, or triple! I am guessing they have plenty of money, and can afford these increases...... but most folks around the world CANNOT afford these type of increases....... whether it be a tax or penalty!
Especially when countries like China will NEVER go along with these energy utopian ideals!

Bottom line, I believe emissions should be reduced where possible, but not to the point of crippling our economy! My personal belief, reduce emissions as much as practical, and any money spent after that should be used to prepare for GW...... NOT prevent it! Fact of the matter is, we cannot prevent GW, we can only mitigate its effects.

I do however find it somewhat funny, that it used to be "global warming", but once some credible models and scientists predicted a possible cooling to come...... now we have "climate change"....... Ain't that just convenient! As the climate is ALWAYS changing....... with or without man!

It does not have to be a "right or wrong" issue...... the best approach is a "common sense" approach! We can ALL agree that we want clean Air and clean Water!
..i have to agree with you on this, there does seem to be a hidden agenda, i dont care about right or left, but there are those seeing this as a great way to tax everything we do,I am wondering if, yes under different circumstances, but i wonder if this is how the roman empire fell, and all empires who died of their own causes, government just grew too greedy, taxing their citizens into debt and finally the whole thing collapses..time after time..we are seeing the beginnings now of this in europe, and we will see it happen here too, our way of living is going under the weight of costs and taxes..when i was 16, a brand new car..cost what 3 thousand or so..how much does one cost today?...thats just one lil example...we are coming to the point of no return, where the average working person, the everyday kinda guy..cannot make it...then you know what comes next
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting washingtonian115:
I've seen to many examples on this blog to not get engaged in the GW debate.


um humm..LOL!
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I've seen to many examples on this blog to not get engaged in the GW debate.
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AOI 30%:



Emilia:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 13:11:01 N Lon : 111:30:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.2 degrees



Daniel:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 15:24:58 N Lon : 131:13:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 996.9mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -55.0C Cloud Region Temp : -50.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 75km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
EP052012 - Hurricane EMILIA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

23:30 UTC

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Dint see too many Neanderthal Building Refineries and Coal Plants, nor designing 30,000 Ballistic Missiles that can wack us all in day.

Yeah, show me in the last 800k years where the Co2 rose as fast,..


I have a Full Fresca too.

I'll be here.

Sip,..ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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Quoting ncstorm:
Saw this on NBC News tonight..the man had no idea a Shark was behind him ..people from the beach were trying to warn him and he didnt even know..talk about being in a vulnerable position

..that was awesome, i saw that also on the news, he is one lucky guy alright with JAWS right on this tail
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's having to fight hard to keep going... Dry air is creeping in from the west...



The strongest convection is now on the east side, probably because of that... The west side looks kind of pancaked, lol.


The west side of the convection is less than other sides.

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Quoting Civicane49:

She's having to fight hard to keep going... Dry air is creeping in from the west...



The strongest convection is now on the east side, probably because of that... The west side looks kind of pancaked, lol.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

And it was the first time he'd ever been in a kayak.


and Im sure his last time..
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure what your taling about you are for geting other fac that need too be in play



1st of all if a weak or mod EL nino fourms AUG and SEP may be dead


all so with the E PAC being so active right now you no EL nino is on the way or starting too feel more like EL nino




hurricane season starts in may for the E PAC and so far the E PAC have been vary active so far this season
Taz the El nino has not formed yet and seems to be on hold at the moment.Even if El nino forms we'll have a lag affect in the atmosphere.We'll likely not reach the Greek alphabet.Just because a season started fast doesn't mean it'll stay that way all the way through.Prime example this year in the Atlantic.I wouldn't write off the season so fast.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Saw this on NBC News tonight..the man had no idea a Shark was behind him ..people from the beach were trying to warn him and he didnt even know..talk about being in a vulnerable position


And it was the first time he'd ever been in a kayak.
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Saw this on NBC News tonight..the man had no idea a Shark was behind him ..people from the beach were trying to warn him and he didnt even know..talk about being in a vulnerable position

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Should be an invest and then Fabio. Sorry if I sounded/ was angry over the intensity forecast for Emilia. I realized the situation and then changed my comment.





per 98E loooks good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114063
This GW clap-trap/ argument is getting so old!!!

Who was responsible for global warming BEFORE man entered the industrial age?

Of course the Globe is warming....... and in my opinion in my life time, we will see just as dramatic a global cooling (just my opinion.....)

So the Globe is warming, what do we do about it? I support the "common sense" approach......

If we can cut emissions by 95%, and it cost "x"...... I get it! But do not tell me we should cut emissions from 95% to 98% and pay "5x".......

The arrogance of Men to believe that they can "change" the climate, without spending us all into the poorhouse......

Many say my position makes me an idiot.....

Get this! I want clean air, clean water......what I don't want to see, is the price of my electricity and gasoline to double, even triple...... all in the sake of "fighting" GW!

Many on the left support a "gas tax", to raise the price of gasoline so high, that it cuts demand...... and reduces emissions...... I am guessing these same folks would have no problem paying $6, $9, or even more for a gallon of gas! Or watch their power bill double, or triple! I am guessing they have plenty of money, and can afford these increases...... but most folks around the world CANNOT afford these type of increases....... whether it be a tax or penalty!
Especially when countries like China will NEVER go along with these energy utopian ideals!

Bottom line, I believe emissions should be reduced where possible, but not to the point of crippling our economy! My personal belief, reduce emissions as much as practical, and any money spent after that should be used to prepare for GW...... NOT prevent it! Fact of the matter is, we cannot prevent GW, we can only mitigate its effects.

I do however find it somewhat funny, that it used to be "global warming", but once some credible models and scientists predicted a possible cooling to come...... now we have "climate change"....... Ain't that just convenient! As the climate is ALWAYS changing....... with or without man!

It does not have to be a "right or wrong" issue...... the best approach is a "common sense" approach! We can ALL agree that we want clean Air and clean Water!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Should be an invest soon.

Agreed.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT
680 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



up too 30%

Should be an invest and then Fabio. Sorry if I sounded/ was angry over the intensity forecast for Emilia. I realized the situation and then changed my comment on the last blog.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Started raining outside Buda Texas and my current Temp is 90, LOL, talk about a Hot rain!


Hope you get some decent rain.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Should be an invest soon.



yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114063
Quoting washingtonian115:
No..just no..it's not to uncommon to see the east pacific this active in July.Besides their season starts two months earlier than ours.No we won't need the Greek alphabet.Besides after Fabio forms it seems that'll be about it for the east pacific.Then activity will shift in our basin.Watch out for a storm in another two weeks..Our August-September could be active.



not sure what your taling about you are for geting other fac that need too be in play



1st of all if a weak or mod EL nino fourms AUG and SEP may be dead


all so with the E PAC being so active right now you no EL nino is on the way or starting too feel more like EL nino




hurricane season starts in may for the E PAC and so far the E PAC have been vary active so far this season
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114063
Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT
680 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



up too 30%

Should be an invest soon.
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Quoting winter123:
I don't follow the tropics for two days and... This.

Emelia looks on its way to a major, if not there already.

epac will need Greek names by September if this keeps up. Also, RIP 2012 Atlantic hurricane season?
No..just no..it's not to uncommon to see the east pacific this active in July.Besides their season starts two months earlier than ours.No we won't need the Greek alphabet.Besides after Fabio forms it seems that'll be about it for the east pacific.Then activity will shift in our basin.Watch out for a storm in another two weeks..Our August-September could be active.
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE DANIEL IS NEAR 15.4N 130.7W MOVING W OT 275 DEGREES AT
14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. DANIEL
IS NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE
MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DANIEL
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...AND TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES 140W INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.

HURRICANE EMILIA IS NEAR 13.1N 111.1W MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES
AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA IS JUST
SHY OF A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS EMILIA
CONTINUING ON A WNW TRACK AS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W HAS HELPED PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED MORE
BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N83W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 10N98W TO 10N103W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N133W TO
06N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N
OF 04N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N98W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE RESULT OF A COMPLEX INTERACTION
BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE AND RESULTANT GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL BE OF
INTEREST TO WATCH AS IT CONTINUES ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N116W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. THE PREVIOUS AREA OF TRADEWINDS HAS NOW
SHIFTED W OF THE AREA AS DANIEL CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8
FT ARE FOUND S OF 07N W OF 105W. THE SWELL WILL MIX WITH
SLIGHTLY SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM BOTH DANIEL AND
EMILIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE EVENING AS THE JET WEAKENS.

$$
AL



Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
000
AXNT20 KNHC 091840
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N25W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 23W-27W. SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN AT
17M65W MOVING NW AT 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST
IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT REACHING 60W. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N95W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-97W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE S OF 22N FROM BETWEEN 91W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 14N16W TO 10N30W. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N30W TO 7N44W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW BREAKS THE ITCZ ANALYZED NEAR 6N45W. THE ITCZ REFORMS SW OF
THE LOW NEAR 5N46W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W. FURTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 26N80W TO 22N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO... LOUISIANA...AND S MISSISSIPPI N OF 27N BETWEEN
87W-95W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N AND
SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND INLAND OVER W PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN W OF 77W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N34W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N50W 29N72W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 35N37W...29N47W...
27N56W...26N66W...AND 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED SE OF
EACH CIRCULATION. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
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What a beauty she is and minimal/ no threat to land(maybe brush Hawaii as a TD) I say a cat3= deffinitly, cat4 likely, cat5= possible at current rate of organization.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Emilia Viz

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Quoting Patrap:
Also there is no StormW.

He got booted a year ago almost.

So, so much for being "Up" on tings here.

Enjoy your blogging though.


I check in here at least once every day during the season . Many times a day when the Atlantic is active.

Don't want to get banned but as someone else stated. Storm W. is still around. Google

Levi puts things into a way I can understand them better. The videos help alot also.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT
680 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



up too 30%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114063
Quoting Articuno:
What, is it after I post the blog dies?
WTH?



we have are own life other then this blog if you dont mine we are all busy doing other things
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114063
What, is it after I post the blog dies?
WTH?
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Started raining outside Buda Texas and my current Temp is 90, LOL, talk about a Hot rain!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.