U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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It looks angular.

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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Eye also looks quite a bit less defined in this new frame... Dare I say it's peaked or just a temporary fluctuation?

Ahh it's Freddy!!.
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EP042012 - Hurricane DANIEL

01:15 UTC

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Low Sun Angle Viz

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Line of Heavy storms came thru here and dropped .20, can anyone say Drought, THundered for over 2 hours but very little rain.


LOL-- They're avoiding San Antonio. Earlier they were to the west, but headed west. Now that they are to the east they are heading east. There are some to the northwest but they are heading southwest.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


seems to be eroding best get it together or it could be in trouble
I agree.She looks a mess.She looked so much better earlier today.the dry air is getting to her.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


seems to be eroding best get it together or it could be in trouble

Eye also looks quite a bit less defined in this new frame... Dare I say it's peaked or just a temporary fluctuation?

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Quoting Chicklit:


I would not be surprised to witness the early development of a Cape Verde storm this year.


I'm interested to see what these next couple waves do the next few days. Finally seeing some kinks in the otherwise flat lined ITCZ with these two, moreso with the second overland right now. Could the high be showing signs of breaking down a bit? Stay tuned...

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
Quoting cajunkid:


Link?


Here's a starting point, at least:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/heading-into-new- little-ice-age-basic.htm
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Anyway, SST's are hot enough in the Atlantic, shear is low so who knows. The conditions concerning MJO aren't right so expect nothing to form but I wouldn't discount anything. Best thing to do is be prepared and hope nothing happens in your part of the basin.
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seems to be eroding best get it together or it could be in trouble
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4 months from may9 to jul 9 nino/nina regions






nino has stalled and is neutral as of jul 9th
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The models show the wave coming off of Africa next Wens as a 1008 millibar low.
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No shear or SST are holding Emilia back
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.7mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1
Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
Quoting allancalderini:
can you give me the link please that I always lost this things.hope it develops but I hope if it develops to be a fish.

Link
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Derived from the 10July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:
Its vector had changed from 16.7mph(26.8km/h) West to 17.8mph(28.7km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 70knots(81)130km/h to 65knots(75)120km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 988millibars to 992millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel
Easternmost dot on the longest line is H.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii.
9July6amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 233miles(375kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Top half of the dot north of the straightline)
9July12pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 365miles(588kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom dot of the blob on the straightline)
9July6pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 236miles(380kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half of the dot north of the straightline)
10July12amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 336miles(541kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~3days15hours from now

Copy&paste 9n161w, hi25, 15.527n155.471w, 13.641n155.005w, 15.484n155.476w, san, 14.4n116.5w-14.5n117.5w, 14.5n117.5w-14.6n118.6w, 14.6n118.6w-14.7n119.6w, 14.7n119.6w-14.8n120.7w, 14.8n120.7w-14.9n121.7w, 14.9n121.7w-15.0n123.1w, 15.0n123.1w-15.1n124.4w, 15.1n124.4w-15.2n125.7w, 15.2n125.7w-15.3n127.0w, 15.3n127.0w-15.3n128.4w, 15.3n128.4w-15.4n129.9w, 15.4n129.9w-15.4n131.5w, 15.4n129.9w-14.052n155.114w, 18.911n155.681w-14.052n155.114w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Daniel is traveling tonight on a plane
And I can see the red tail lights heading for Spain
And I can see Daniel waving goodbye
Oh it looks like Daniel, it must be the clouds in my eyes
Oh God it looks like Daniel, must be the clouds in my eyes





Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

01:00 UTC

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Quoting schistkicker:


True, but the Milankovitch forcings aren't helpful here for explaining either the observed trends OR the rapidity at which the changes seem to be occurring. The orbital shape, the wobble of the Earth's axis, and the hemispheric tilt toward the Sun aren't the cause.


Link?
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another reason for such inactivity at the moment can be seen by the SST Anomaly map. The Atlantic Ocean tripole is not really established, and sst anomalies are warmer farther north, with a normal to slightly above Atlantic anomaly. What this implies is, since there are warmer anomalies far north of the Tropical Atlantic, there is no reason at the moment for Mother Nature to transport heat out of the tropics. There is basically a lack of net upward motion right now. The Tripole refers to warm anomalies near Greenland and such, and colder anomalies just south of there, and then warm anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic, which provides net upward motion in the tropics. The tripole can be seen in the 7/10/2004 anomaly map. Compare this with the current anomalies.

this discussion points out the comparison of 2012 season to the 2004 season. i dont have the ssts for 2004 but they are nearly identical to right now. 2004 was a warm neutral just like we are and the ridging looks nearly idential and dangerous
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Quoting cajunkid:


You forgot about the Earth's proximity to the Sun in its annual orbit.

Just saying...


True, but the Milankovitch forcings aren't helpful here for explaining either the observed trends OR the rapidity at which the changes seem to be occurring. The orbital shape, the wobble of the Earth's axis, and the hemispheric tilt toward the Sun aren't the cause.
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I would not be surprised to witness the early development of a Cape Verde storm this year.
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Line of Heavy storms came thru here and dropped .20, can anyone say Drought, THundered for over 2 hours but very little rain.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Who is that?


the laptop GM
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Good thing no one is in the way of this strengthening storm.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL the raw GM is back


Who is that?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Maybe a little something for Hawaii?
Emilia and Daniel can go suck it!.How dare they set their sites on Hawaii?.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If that's the case...

Link
The data is the exact same.
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Daniel has shrunk and shrunk yet still minimum cane, nice little fighter. Not going to be much to fall apart at this rate when he does. The Gulf looks ripe this year for big storms, but is anything going to make it in there until mid to late August? Near record SST's, silly low shear, but instability is low and everything in the Western Caribbean looking to go Westward at this time and not into the Gulf.
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Maybe a little something for Hawaii?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting stormchaser19:
the GFS is shows a little wave getting out of africa, could this wave have any chance of be ernesto ?





can you give me the link please that I always lost this things.hope it develops but I hope if it develops to be a fish.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
7 rows above the bottom row. Everything in between is CIRA estimates.

EP, 05, 201207091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1280N, 11050W, , 1, 90, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VI, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO CON

EP, 05, 201207091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 11050W, , 1, 90, 2, 970, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DM, VI, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, LLCC PSN BSD ON 16 NM EYE.

If that's the case...

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Were the values at 18Z 5.0/5.0?
7 rows above the bottom row. Everything in between is CIRA estimates.

EP, 05, 201207091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1280N, 11050W, , 1, 90, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VI, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO CON

EP, 05, 201207091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 11050W, , 1, 90, 2, 970, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DM, VI, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, LLCC PSN BSD ON 16 NM EYE.
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LOL the raw GM is back
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting schistkicker:
1. Data is data. If it's published, anyone can attempt to replicate the experiment, the model, the results. Data has no liberal or conservative bias. It just is.

2. If the data shows that the world is warming, and warming in a way inconsistent with "natural", external causes (i.e. the Sun's not doing it, there's no higher heat flow, no flux in incoming cosmic radiation, etc), then that's what's happening.


You forgot about the Earth's proximity to the Sun in its annual orbit.

Just saying...
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Good for you keep up the good work!
Thnaks! I want to be a meteorologist and work with severe/tropical wx or work with wx for aviation.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951
it's really not an issue that warming has occured.. to place the blame on co2 is not a reality.it's a convient theory. h2o certainly is more responsible for heat transferance.in the atmosphere. shall we allocate causes to their sources? thermodynamics suggests such.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It takes skill. :) What's in bold is all you need to know:

EP, 05, 201207092330, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 11160W, , 1, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 1, 5555 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

EP, 05, 201207100000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 11170W, , 1, 102, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JK, VI, 1, 5555 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO CON

Were the values at 18Z 5.0/5.0?
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
tropics chat anyone?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting stormchaser19:
the GFS is shows a little wave getting out of africa, could this wave have any chance of be ernesto ?





I don't think that's the one?.The Euro shows a low coming off Africa in the next ten-14 days.Yes long range.But it has been consistent now with it.
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
The GFS

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Quoting stormchaser19:
the GFS is shows a little wave getting out of africa at 168 hours, could this wave have any chance of be ernesto ?





Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You found the latest SAB/TAFB readings in that mess? O_o
It takes skill. :) What's in bold is all you need to know:

EP, 05, 201207092330, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 11160W, , 1, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 1, 5555 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

EP, 05, 201207100000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 11170W, , 1, 102, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JK, VI, 1, 5555 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO CON
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the GFS is shows a little wave getting out of africa, could this wave have any chance of be ernesto ?





Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks MH09.

You found the latest SAB/TAFB readings in that mess? O_o
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.1
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7951

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.