U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

Share this Blog
51
+

Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 371 - 321

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They all look the same!
2004 was turning into a modoki but maintained warm neutral until the end of september
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe 2004 had a modoki El Nino where the Central Pacific is the area with the warmest waters. These Modoki El Nino's have a different effect on the Atlantic season (I would say what the effect is but I'm not entirely sure, but it includes the possibility of an active season). 2012 is just not a Modoki El Nino
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Daniel
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1000.6mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Emilia
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -11.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Ok it has to be wrong if it has Daniel strengthening but Emilia weakening.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
368. MTWX
Quoting wxchaser97:


Eye seems to be clearing out nicely....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
July 10 2004 SST



July 9 2012 SST



July 12 2009 SST



July 9 2006 SST


They all look the same!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
New blog. :)

Emilia intensifies into a major hurricane; Daniel hanging on; New disturbance forms
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
guys do not discuss , wait until late august to see if El NINO develops strong, but i think will be a neutral to weak El nino. one evidence of that is, every region of El NINO, comes down this week, indicate that is not developing progressively.....But again, we need to see what happens.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Civicane49:

Very impressive...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very nice discussion, floridaboy and Mississippi despite the contending views.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Deleted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That comeback by me was terrible lol
I have yet to see a meme based comeback be successful so no worries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
July 10 2004 SST



July 9 2012 SST



July 12 2009 SST



July 9 2006 SST

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


2004 was warm neutral at this time?

2004:



2012:

cool neutral. thats not important. have you seen how strong the ridge is in every model run. similar to 04. my conclusion is this will be a bad year. i dont think el nino will form until late september. what do you think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


140 MPH peak now!


Although that is at 12 and 24 hours. Emilia can still strengthen beyond that in between those two time frames.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:




thats acutally kind of sad...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:



ALTHOUGH NHC says 120 mph... i think is near 135 mph..she looks so impressive... watch for an special update at anytime..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Question... EXACTLY how does El Nino affect the Atlantic hurricanes? I know storms in Pacific get more powerful as result, but what about Atlantic?
Shear increases over the gulf and southern Atlantic which makes conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. The wind shear is lessened in the epac making more favorable conditions.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I may not make them but I can distinguished a good on from a bad one! Better luck next time.


That comeback by me was terrible lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I may not make them but I can distinguished a good on from a bad one! Better luck next time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaboy14:
i completely disagree. 2006 and 2009 were identical because of the el nino forming quite fast. 2004 was a warm neutral and notice the first TROPICAL system formed in late july July 31 Hurricane Alex. Read this. i dont have the picture of the sst anomalies posted but this is interesting. the pattern we have now is nearly IDENTICAL to 2004
another reason for such inactivity at the moment can be seen by the SST Anomaly map. The Atlantic Ocean tripole is not really established, and sst anomalies are warmer farther north, with a normal to slightly above Atlantic anomaly. What this implies is, since there are warmer anomalies far north of the Tropical Atlantic, there is no reason at the moment for Mother Nature to transport heat out of the tropics. There is basically a lack of net upward motion right now. The Tripole refers to warm anomalies near Greenland and such, and colder anomalies just south of there, and then warm anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic, which provides net upward motion in the tropics. The tripole can be seen in the 7/10/2004 anomaly map. Compare this with the current anomalies.


2004 was warm neutral at this time?

2004:



2012:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Question... EXACTLY how does El Nino affect the Atlantic hurricanes? I know storms in Pacific get more powerful as result, but what about Atlantic?

In El Nino years, the wind patterns are aligned in a way that the vertical wind shear is increased over the Caribbean and Atlantic. The increased wind shear helps prevent tropical disturbances from developing into hurricanes. In the eastern Pacific, the wind patterns are altered in such a way to reduce the wind shear in the atmosphere, contributing to more storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


This year reflects 2006 or 2009 much more than 2004. The CFS isn't the only model predicting a strong El Nino. Just look at the European. Also, the CFS moves the strongest anomalies into the Pacific throughout the hurricane season. It's not like it initializes the warmest anomalies in the Central Pacific.
i completely disagree. 2006 and 2009 were identical because of the el nino forming quite fast. 2004 was a warm neutral and notice the first TROPICAL system formed in late july July 31 Hurricane Alex. Read this. i dont have the picture of the sst anomalies posted but this is interesting. the pattern we have now is nearly IDENTICAL to 2004
another reason for such inactivity at the moment can be seen by the SST Anomaly map. The Atlantic Ocean tripole is not really established, and sst anomalies are warmer farther north, with a normal to slightly above Atlantic anomaly. What this implies is, since there are warmer anomalies far north of the Tropical Atlantic, there is no reason at the moment for Mother Nature to transport heat out of the tropics. There is basically a lack of net upward motion right now. The Tripole refers to warm anomalies near Greenland and such, and colder anomalies just south of there, and then warm anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic, which provides net upward motion in the tropics. The tripole can be seen in the 7/10/2004 anomaly map. Compare this with the current anomalies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question... EXACTLY how does El Nino affect the Atlantic hurricanes? I know storms in Pacific get more powerful as result, but what about Atlantic?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Not impressed with these tropical waves...because of unfavorable conditions they are encountering. Specific reasons I see are found in paragraphs P10 and P11 of my latest update...


Well, I am not targeting development. I am interested in observing what these waves do to the overall synoptic pattern we find ourselves stuck in ATM. They seem to be the first ones that are making a presence felt in the surrounding atmosphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting floridaboy14:
which is why i dont follow it that much. it predicted neutral for next season yet out of nowhere la nina formed. a strong el nino is ridicoulous considering how slow it is forming. the ssts resemble 2004 the pattern represents 2004 where we dont get development till early august and the steering flow is very scary. all signs of a warm neutral hurricane season with el nino possibly forming in september/october


This year reflects 2006 or 2009 much more than 2004. The CFS isn't the only model predicting a strong El Nino. Just look at the European. Also, the CFS moves the strongest anomalies into the Pacific throughout the hurricane season. It's not like it initializes the warmest anomalies in the Central Pacific.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


New CFS model predicts a very strong El Nino, of course the strongest anomalies are in the Central Pacific.
which is why i dont follow it that much. it predicted neutral for next season yet out of nowhere la nina formed. a strong el nino is ridicoulous considering how slow it is forming. the ssts resemble 2004 the pattern represents 2004 where we dont get development till early august and the steering flow is very scary. all signs of a warm neutral hurricane season with el nino possibly forming in september/october
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Emilia looked to have been a major hurricane much earlier in the day. Funny how conservative in strength the NHC is with East Pacific storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100232
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE SMALL CDO REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0/65 KT
...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
AND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD...AND IS NOW A
LITTLE FASTER AT 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.4N 132.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.4N 134.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 137.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Good evening everyone!

...DANIEL STILL A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 15.4°N 132.2°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

...EMILIA STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 13.3°N 112.2°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


140 MPH peak now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C WRAPPING
THE ENTIRE WAY AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
OF THE DAY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE THAT WAS OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FREE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T5.5 OR 102
KT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR T6.0 OR 115 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING
EMILIA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN THEREAFTER DUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS FROM DAY 3 TO 5. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMMON IN MATURE HURRICANES LIKE
EMILIA. IF ONE OCCURS...IT WOULD LIKELY PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED
AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
...EMILIA STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 13.3°N 112.2°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

120 it is
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
...EMILIA STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 13.3°N 112.2°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DANIEL STILL A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 15.4°N 132.2°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting floridaboy14:
everything is pointing to el nino but nothing is certain. right now the cfs showed a weak el nino yet we are still warm neutral. we will see in a few months


New CFS model predicts a very strong El Nino, of course the strongest anomalies are in the Central Pacific.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE SMALL CDO REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0/65 KT
...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
AND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD...AND IS NOW A
LITTLE FASTER AT 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.4N 132.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.4N 134.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 137.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Once again, for the billionth time, El Nino/La Nina take overs hardly ever go in a straight line. There are variables that cause stair-stepping to occur. The ultimate heading is El Nino, whether we want to believe it.
everything is pointing to el nino but nothing is certain. right now the cfs showed a weak el nino yet we are still warm neutral. we will see in a few months
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
0300 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 112.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 112.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting MississippiWx:
Once again, for the billionth time, El Nino/La Nina take overs hardly ever go in a straight line. There are variables that cause stair-stepping to occur. The ultimate heading is El Nino, whether we want to believe it.


BOOM WE GOT LOGIC'D!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
110kts-125MPH is my guess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 371 - 321

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron