U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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What do you peoples think Daniel will be at the next advisory and when will it dissipate?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Wxchaser97 :
The most snowfall in 1 event was a wet 4" but we had atleast a few false alarms. Even though I'm almost 15 The 2011-2012 winter was the worst I went through( I extremely love lots of snow). As long as its better than last year and I make some money from snow removal I'll be fine.


The most I remember was the winter of 03-04 I think. Nashville picked up something like a foot of snow. That was amazing since I was 7 at the time and had siblings who played with me and snowball fights. Although Nashville can't clean itself up after a dusting...
I hope there is more snow this year too. I miss sledding down my hill face-first... *tearing up*
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people of Texas can't complain

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 13:15:00 N Lon : 112:02:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 degrees

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940


map above was this time 2011
map below shows now
we are way way ahead on ice loss
almost to the point of no rtn



faster and faster
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


oh we got 6"
and it was powdery

it even covered the road for 6 hours!!!
The lucky ones... I just want to forget last winter and move on. Last winter it seemed like winter was against me and never gave me a good snowfall. Hopefully if el nino developes it wont really hamper my winter or just get a nuetral and lifes good.

And know back to the tropics:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
.
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Just read the following concerning high fructose corn syrup (HCFS),
and wondered if the person who was freaking out about mercury in 
light bulbs the other night, avoids food containing  high fructose corn syrup...

The following is from:
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/07/0 9/can-banning-big-gulps-have-an-environmental-bene fit/

"Certainly, the industrial process used to manufacture HCFS is not environmentally friendly.  Lye (also known as caustic soda) is used to remove corn starch from the kernel. Hydrochloric acid and an assortment of enzymes are added as the mix is heated and pressurized.  It is also worth pointing out that lye has been sourced from industrial plants that use mercury in the production process (creating federal superfund sites that take decades to clean up), and scientists have found mercury in commercial brands of HCFS as well as products listing HCFS as an ingredient."
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Quoting SPLBeaterWx:
Maybe I am catching on late, but can ANYBODY tell me how in the world there can be a 1 in 1.6 million year event when we have and most likely will not be here for 1.6 million years? Anyone got a reasonable explanation for that?


We can "see" the climate of the past by extracting ice cores from the poles and look at the gases in the air bubbles on the inside. (It is just like looking at soil layers and being able to tell if there was a flood or a period of flourishing for a certain type of species.) From there we can see how often a certain event happens and then come up with probabilities for these events and then compare to today's climate.
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.
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i was thinking that the nhc was not doing 130 or 135mph wind any more
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
Quoting wxchaser97:
The most snowfall in 1 event was a wet 4" but we had atleast a few false alarms. Even though I'm almost 15 The 2011-2012 winter was the worst I went through( I extremely love lots of snow). As long as its better than last year and I make some money from snow removal I'll be fine.


oh we got 6"
and it was powdery

it even covered the road for 6 hours!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to take a guess at how strong Emilia is (unofficially)? 120 mph? 125 mph? 135 mph?



130 MPH
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I hope so too but, not to brag, for all of middle school and my first year of high school I've gotten all A's and even got a 100% on my science final and my weather unit test. So I really haven't been wrong alot.:) :(


You better get mostly A's also through the rest of high school if you expect to make it through Meteorology school, not to scare ya man but just saying don't get to excited, just keep on workin.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lake temps run high may even get higher still more than likly
it will help create a warming effect over the lakes
expect a stall from cold weather over entire great lake region
also we have to wait to see the total extend of ice loss over the high north with no ice no deep cold air until a complete freeze over
lots in play here with far reaching effects
we may have snow but not till early jan
and even then it will be the normal
abnormal 2 month winter
The most snowfall in 1 event was a wet 4" but we had atleast a few false alarms. Even though I'm almost 15 The 2011-2012 winter was the worst I went through( I extremely love lots of snow). As long as its better than last year and I make some money from snow removal I'll be fine.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
I say 130 or 135 at the next advisory.
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In response to TropicalAnalystwx13 question; I'll say 132-133 mph.

To WxGeekVA: Emilia is going to eat that doughnut if you keep waving it in front of her like that. lol
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I'll say 125mph-130mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to take a guess at how strong Emilia is (unofficially)? 120 mph? 125 mph? 135 mph?

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to take a guess at how strong Emilia is (unofficially)? 120 mph? 125 mph? 135 mph?


Maybe 125mph...
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Quoting wxchaser97:
What would that mean for winter in southern MI since we came of the winter that wasn't and our warmest on record? I made $0.00 in snow removal last year so I want a more normal winter.


lake temps run high may even get higher still more than likly
it will help create a warming effect over the lakes
expect a stall from cold weather over entire great lake region
also we have to wait to see the total extend of ice loss over the high north with no ice no deep cold air until a complete freeze over
lots in play here with far reaching effects
we may have snow but not till early jan
and even then it will be the normal
abnormal 2 month winter
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to take a guess at how strong Emilia is (unofficially)? 120 mph? 125 mph? 135 mph?



130 MPH is my bet.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
No way is Emilia weakening. That is a solid ring of inner core convection that Dunkin Doughnuts would be proud of. She's just getting her groove on.




Like this?

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


lol :)



Until this last year, we used to say we had 10 months of winter and 2 months of bad sledding :-)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to take a guess at how strong Emilia is (unofficially)? 120 mph? 125 mph? 135 mph?



very small range, may as well pick 125 or 130, not really much difference so i pick 130
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Quoting bappit:

Let me translate that from the idiom: just ignore the data.


thats a bad translation.
Some of what is in there can probably be added to what we know already and you cant just totally dismiss all of it.
That would be as as bad as being a compplete denialist.

It amazes me how this debate has become so polarized that we cannot even think objectively, the article is skepticist, and so we ignore it in its entirety, not even pausing to think that, if not the skepticist part, much of what is in there may still be right
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Anybody want to take a guess at how strong Emilia is (unofficially)? 120 mph? 125 mph? 135 mph?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting nofailsafe:


What is this "Winter" thing you speak of? We have "Hot" and "Less Hot" here.
Some people, like me, have "Warm/hot" and "cold" or "less cold" and "cold". Some others just sleep all winter no matter what and wake up in spring;)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Warmest Half Year On Record For U.S. Mainland, NOAA 'State Of The Climate' Reports
The Huffington Post | By Joanna Zelman
Posted: 07/09/2012 4:10 pm Updated: 07/09/2012 4:18 pm


Yes, it really is getting hot out there. A new report finds that the past 12 months have been the warmest on record for the mainland United States.

According to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's "State of the Climate: National Overview for June 2012" report released Monday, the 12-month period from July 2011 to June 2012 was the warmest on record (since recordkeeping began in 1895) for the contiguous United States, with a nationally-averaged temperature of 56.0 degrees, 3.2 degrees higher than the long-term average.

According to the report, every single state in the contiguous U.S. except for Washington saw warmer-than-average temperatures during this time period. The period from January to June of this year also has been the warmest first half of a year on record for the U.S. mainland.

For a large portion of the contiguous U.S., these first six months were also drier than average. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that as of July 3, 56 percent of the contiguous U.S. is experiencing drought conditions. In June, wildfires burned over 1.3 million acres, the second most on record for the month.

As for that brutally hot June? More than 170 all-time warm temperature records were broken or tied last month.

Not all states were feeling the heat: the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast experienced some cooler-than-average conditions, but the Southeast still saw record-high temperatures near the end of the month.

For 13 consecutive months, temperatures ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time on record. As NOAA points out, "The odds of this occurring randomly is 1 in 1,594,323."

The report comes on the heels of growing awareness that the increase in heat waves, wildfires, droughts and some other weather extremes the U.S. is experiencing may indicate what climate change holds in store for the future.

"It's hard to pinpoint climate change as the driving factor, but it appears that it is playing a role," National Climatic Data Center scientist Jake Crouch told Reuters of the long-term warming trend. "What's going on for 2012 is exactly what we would expect from climate change."

Seth Borenstein recently wrote for the Associated Press that according to climate scientists, recent U.S. weather reflects what many experts predicted would come with climate change. "In the future you would expect larger, longer more intense heat waves and we've seen that in the last few summers," said NOAA Climate Monitoring chief Derek Arndt.

And as Princeton professor Michael Oppenheimer declared on a press call, "What we are seeing is a window into what global warming really looks like."

Recent reports suggest it's going to get a lot worse. Climate change not only has been tied to weather extremes, but also linked to rising sea levels. A study released in late June by the National Research Council found that much of California can expect a sea level rise of six inches by 2030, while a report by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) government scientists found that rates of sea level rise in a "hotspot" along the U.S. Atlantic Coast are increasing about three to four times more than the global average. A study published in Nature Climate Change last month found that human activities have played a large role in global ocean warming.

The West is on fire, dozens are dead from the most recent heat wave, and the mainland U.S. has just felt its warmest 12 months on record. Welcome to the future?
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No way is Emilia weakening. That is a solid ring of inner core convection that Dunkin Doughnuts would be proud of. She's just getting her groove on.


Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5175
Quoting nofailsafe:


What is this "Winter" thing you speak of? We have "Hot" and "Less Hot" here.


lol :)
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next system for the atlantic comes a few days before the next full moon which occurs on aug 2
therefore expect to see a storm in atlantic basin from july 26 on ward
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Quoting cajunkid:
Link
Just keep an open mind.

Let me translate that from the idiom: just ignore the data.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


iam talking about cane season
you said give nino a few more months
few means 3
its jul 3 months makes oct 9
and in october we start
the downward turn to cane season

o and by the way we go neutralweak into august/sept with building conditions by late sept and full blown nino by dec thats my take anyway
What would that mean for winter in southern MI since we came of the winter that wasn't and our warmest on record? I made $0.00 in snow removal last year so I want a more normal winter.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting MTWX:


For some October is early winter!! ;)


What is this "Winter" thing you speak of? We have "Hot" and "Less Hot" here.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
if your talking bout the el nino you are wrong. in all likelyhood it should be getting stronger and should be weakining in the early winter.


iam talking about cane season
you said give nino a few more months
few means 3
its jul 3 months makes oct 9
and in october we start
the downward turn to cane season

o and by the way we go neutralweak into august/sept with building conditions by late sept and full blown nino by dec thats my take anyway
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382. MTWX
Quoting floridaboy14:
if your talking bout the el nino you are wrong. in all likelyhood it should be getting stronger and should be weakining in the early winter.


For some October is early winter!! ;)
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Daniel
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1000.6mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Emilia
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -11.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Ok it has to be wrong if it has Daniel strengthening but Emilia weakening.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

better but stiil says weakening flag on but i'll ignore it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in a few months it will be october peak will have come and gone by then
if your talking bout the el nino you are wrong. in all likelyhood it should be getting stronger and should be weakining in the early winter.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Fully wrapped around and the eye is clearing out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting floridaboy14:
everything is pointing to el nino but nothing is certain. right now the cfs showed a weak el nino yet we are still warm neutral. we will see in a few months
in a few months it will be october peak will have come and gone by then
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They all look the same!



Pretty much!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5175
Quoting MTWX:


Eye seems to be clearing out nicely....
Definitly still intensifying and the strength should be higher at 2am and 5am.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
372. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They all look the same!


I was about to say that. They are all impressively similar, though 2006 seems a little colder to me.

Those are good images that show this season could go either way, 2004ish or even 2009ish.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They all look the same!
2004 was turning into a modoki but maintained warm neutral until the end of september
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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