U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Better late than never :)


Walmart will do that to you. :/

Have to work until 9:30 tomorrow.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm late yet again, but I just did a blog on the three East Pacific systems.



Better late than never :)
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I'm late yet again, but I just did a blog on the three East Pacific systems.
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EP, 05, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1125W, 115, 948, HU

130 mph.
would they use 130 or 135 mph?
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Was I incorrect when comparing the TUTT and a ULL?

Post #451
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Quoting Barkeep1967:
I used to come here for tropical information. I was here for the tunnels. This has become nothing but a global warming propaganda website. Please haters tell how Jeff is far more knowledgeable then William Grey or Stephen Hawking, I will go back to Lurking now enjoy your Al Gore ( Idiot) fun because I am done with it. 50 after the hour for me I guess


Good riddance. Deniers of facts will have a hard time discussing with people attempting to analyze facts, evidence, and the potential impact these known facts may have on our lives, our children's lives, and the future of the planet as a whole. If you don't want to believe facts and evidence, no one can make you. I am sorry you are in denial. If dumbing yourself down or simply ignoring the evidence helps you live a happier life, then by all means, indulge in that way of thinking. I just personally think it is selfish to intentionally ignore facts, data and evidence when your grandchildren and their generation, not you, will be the ones forced to deal with problems created, ignored, and left behind by people like yourself.

If you feel like coming back to reality, we will happily welcome you back at any time. Until then, enjoy your trip to Imaginationland
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TampaSpin, you quit coming for the truth told here? This ain't the site for you then.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
I almost forgot why i stop coming here very often, NOW I REMEMBER!
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Political Noise: What a word used to herd the sheep!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
captainktainer that was well stated sir.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1530 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AND ON MAJOR HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


future Fabio
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Quoting Barkeep1967:
I used to come here for tropical information. I was here for the tunnels. This has become nothing but a global warming propaganda website. Please haters tell how Jeff is far more knowledgeable then William Grey or Stephen Hawking, I will go back to Lurking now enjoy your Al Gore ( Idiot) fun because I am done with it. 50 after the hour for me I guess


Well, with respect to weather and climate he's more knowledgeable than Stephen Hawking... because Hawking is an astrophysicist. With respect to William Gray, Jeff is superior due to his ability to not make wildly stupid predictions- such as Gray's prediction that the globe would start cooling as of a few years ago, in contravention of literally all the science and actual reality.

It is not "propaganda" to show the truth. It is not "propaganda" to show the data and connect it to the peer reviewed research that has come before. The fact of the matter is that the globe is warming - feel free to question it if you have the background to do so, but the scientific community is more solidly certain of this fact than they are that the Higgs boson has been found. The fact of the matter is that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, as shown by changes in the isotopes of carbon present in the atmosphere, are up hugely. The fact of the matter is that atmospheric carbon dioxide, by the laws of thermodynamics, is a major greenhouse gas.

If you persist in trying to run away from weather sites that acknowledge these facts, all out of some misguided attempt to prevent your worldview from being challenged, you will find yourself retreating further and further into a dark mental corner of bitterness and ignorance, and in the process will deny yourself many pleasant opportunities to interact with wonderful people and expand your understanding of this complex world we live in. You do not have to be like that. You have an opportunity to choose evidence-based thinking over political noise. I can only hope that you will do so.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
You might be right about that :)



We got about .6 in my neighborhood.
Any rain around here in the summer is a good :)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I have not yet read ahead to see if this link had been corrected. .... Here is the correct link - EPA wins court test on right to limit greenhouse gases.


Thanks!
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Emilia was 65mph early yesterday afternoon right? Wow, 130mph now, nice double Emilia! Heatwave returns at the end of this week for Midwest and then possibly intensifies afterwards. No rain forecast at all for South and South Central Wisconsin in next 7, and future looks bleak too. Almost all corn in that area of my state is dead or dying now. Corn in South and South Central Wisconsin to be a total loss. This is not good. Faster and faster now Keeper, so I see.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
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Quoting stormchaser19:
people of Texas can't complain

You might be right about that :)

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Quoting stillwaiting:
something appears to be trying to spin up off swfl coastline,most likely ull diffluence causing the aoi,however if it persists,we could have a homegrown suprise by tomorrow night!


Im not exactly sure if a TUTT would work the same as a ULL toward Tropical Development,but I think they kinda the same thing? Someone can correct me if I am wrong.
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G'Night Chaser
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Quoting stillwaiting:
something appears to be trying to spin up off swfl coastline,most likely ull diffluence causing the aoi,however if it persists,we could have a homegrown suprise by tomorrow night!


Isn't there a TUTT ( Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) in the vicinity of the Florida Straits?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


She looks pretty healthy!
She does look very healthy. Last images and then I'm in bed.

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Just did my 2nd blog...

Link

Good night, y'all.
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Nite everyone! The epac is still on a roll with that AOI that should become Fabio. In a Couple weeks the Atlantic will heat up so prepare now or be caught looking when a storm hits you.
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G'Night Nigel
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something appears to be trying to spin up off swfl coastline,most likely ull diffluence causing the aoi,however if it persists,we could have a homegrown suprise by tomorrow night!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

The eye is not as cleared out as earlier but she is still imo strengthening.


She looks pretty healthy!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


map above was this time 2011
map below shows now
we are way way ahead on ice loss
almost to the point of no rtn



faster and faster

That's quite worrying to say the least. Good night everyone...I'm off to bed!
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Year before last so 10-11, we had a white Christmas with an inch or so. That was interesting for our cat since he had never experienced one. He always wanted to be inside, but we managed to get him outside so we could put snow on top of him and make him more like our dog (Great Pyrenees). That was fun.

Sounded like fun, I like winter and hopefully it is not ruined like last year.
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Hi...just checkin in for a bit. Hey Caicos....Corn industry claims your body can't tell the difference between HFCS and other corn syrups. RIIIGHT....
The GOM looked a bit angry today. Possible flare up?
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Daniel:


Emilia:
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Good night everyone.
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Sure don't want a Storm heading for the Big Bend of Florida or LA,As it could get a infusion of really warm water in the hours prior to landfall.
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Quoting FutureWx6221:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Fabio anyone?


Please read back to find out the answer too that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
The gulf is heating up even after Debby's upwelling. Just thnk what would happen if a minimal hurricane was heading in there.
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Deleted
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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Fabio anyone?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I was around 6 1/2 then and we in Berkley, MI had a white Christmas with 2". In 02 we had a white Christmas with 6+" and they both came from overnight snowfalls.


Year before last so 10-11, we had a white Christmas with an inch or so. That was interesting for our cat since he had never experienced one. He always wanted to be inside, but we managed to get him outside so we could put snow on top of him and make him more like our dog (Great Pyrenees). That was fun.
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The eye is not as cleared out as earlier but she is still imo strengthening.
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I personally think 70mph and Wednesday night.
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Interesting a local met here in swfl mentioned a outside possibility of the eastern gom ull working to the surface if it sits over water for to long and conditions remain favorable.
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Quoting Astrometeor:
Wxchaser97 :
The most snowfall in 1 event was a wet 4" but we had atleast a few false alarms. Even though I'm almost 15 The 2011-2012 winter was the worst I went through( I extremely love lots of snow). As long as its better than last year and I make some money from snow removal I'll be fine.


The most I remember was the winter of 03-04 I think. Nashville picked up something like a foot of snow. That was amazing since I was 7 at the time and had siblings who played with me and snowball fights. Although Nashville can't clean itself up after a dusting...
I hope there is more snow this year too. I miss sledding down my hill face-first... *tearing up*
I was around 6 1/2 then and we in Berkley, MI had a white Christmas with 2". In 02 we had a white Christmas with 6+" and they both came from overnight snowfalls.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

What do you peoples think Daniel will be at the next advisory and when will it dissipate?


60MPH WEDNESDAY
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Quoting wxchaser97:

What do you peoples think Daniel will be at the next advisory and when will it dissipate?


Strong Tropical Storm, maybe 65-70 mph, dissipation sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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