U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just becuase a computer model doesn't show any tropical developement over the next 2 weeks doesn't mean it can't happen. There are things sometimes that models don't see very well kinda like the situation near S FL as this area is looking interesting and could be mentioned by the NHC on the next 2. Again this is the time of year to watch everything as sometimes you never know.

Link

agree and good morning all looks like the area just south of south fl could be worth watching today keeps getting more and more convection all moving toward so fl today so keep one eye on this for today to see if any anything xtra can come from this blob
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just becuase a computer model doesn't show any tropical developement over the next 2 weeks doesn't mean it can't happen. There are things sometimes that models don't see very well kinda like the situation near S FL as this area is looking interesting and could be mentioned by the NHC on the next 2. Again this is the time of year to watch everything as sometimes you never know.

Link


That area by South Florida is baroclinic in nature and the the convection is being enhanced by the TUTT low cell just off the coast near the Bahamas. You can see it on link below at the 250mb level.

Link

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
Rain all day for me!!! lol
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Good Morning. Enclosing the am NCEP Caribbean desk outlook. Not much there. Looking at the radar loops at the rain across South Florida and the heavy convection on the Texas Gulf Coast slowly moving towards LA to the east. Looks like a squall line is trying to organize and move towards coastal LA and New Orleans area later this morning.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
629 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A BROAD TUTT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...IT SUSTAINS MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN WHILE SUSTAINING A CAP INVERSION AROUND 600/700 HPA. THIS TROUGH IS TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY ON THURSDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS IT ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE CAP INVERSION IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ERODE...AND MOISTURE IS TO START POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH FORECASTED PWAT TO PEAK AT 40-45MM.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...TRANSITIONING TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BUT...THEY SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE ON FRIDAY WHEN IN COMBINATION WITH INDUCED PERTURBATION IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STRONG MESO-SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON 24HRS AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY. THE NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAXIMA OF NEARLY 50MM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO. strong>HISTORICALLY...THE TUTT/TUTT LOWS TEND TO BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)



Also looks like PR area will get some more rain on Friday.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
Just becuase a computer model doesn't show any tropical developement over the next 2 weeks doesn't mean it can't happen. There are things sometimes that models don't see very well kinda like the situation near S FL as this area is looking interesting and could be mentioned by the NHC on the next 2. Again this is the time of year to watch everything as sometimes you never know.

Link
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Quoting stoormfury:
It is beginning took like there will e no cyclonic activity in the tropicl atlantic Gomex and the caribbean basin for the month of July. none of the computer models are showing up anything imminent ,and the long range prjection is not even showing anything as the 1st week of august.




At the conclusion of "Debby", I predicted dead until the 3rd week of August.
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Okay, I borrowed a denialist colleague's computer for a moment (after first carefully wiping the dried spittle from his monitor and disinfecting his keyboard) and browsed to the Watts article. I see right away Watts made, as usual, several glaring errors, the first being that even were the 1-in-1.6 million number incorrect (which it's not), it wasn't Dr. Masters who came up with it, but the good folks at the NCDC.

Second, Mr. Willis "I Don't Allow Myself To Be Bothered By Facts" Eschenbach's attempt to shoehorn the remarkable heat into a Poisson distribution completely ignored the fact that the top three hottest 12-month periods in U.S. history have ended in the past three months, while four of the top six have ended in the past four months, and every one of the top 12 warmest annual periods in U.S. history have ended since 2000.

That's "normal"?

It's always fun watching denialists twist themselves into pretzels in their endlessly feeble and always futile attempts to "prove" that the planet isn't warming. If we were grading based on perseverance, they'd all get high marks. Unfortunately, however, there's much more at play...
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Quoting stoormfury:
It is beginning took like there will e no cyclonic activity in the tropicl atlantic Gomex and the caribbean basin for the month of July. none of the computer models are showing up anything imminent ,and the long range prjection is not even showing anything as the 1st week of august.
You know these things can change on a dime.
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It is beginning took like there will e no cyclonic activity in the tropicl atlantic Gomex and the caribbean basin for the month of July. none of the computer models are showing up anything imminent ,and the long range prjection is not even showing anything as the 1st week of august.
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I'm not quite sure why we're all so happy to be rained on today, but to all,

Enjoy!

Gotta run! lol
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http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/ 2011-peterson-et-al.pdf


Trying to get beyond the standard scientific disclaimer that no single weather event can be pinned on global warming, government scientists on Tuesday unveiled a new framework: what are the odds of a specific event being impacted by warming?

From msnbc:

They tested it on several extreme events in 2011 -- a strong La Nina year -- and, in the case of the record Texas drought, concluded that such severe dry spells are 20 more times likely during a La Nina year today than a La Nina in the 1960s, before greenhouse gas emissions jumped.

"Conditions leading to droughts such as the one that occurred in Texas in 2011 are, at least in the case of temperature, distinctly more probable than they were 40-50 years ago," researchers concluded in a new study.

"It's quite striking,"Peter Stott told reporters Tuesday at a briefing organized by his employer, Britain's weather service, and the U.S. National Climatic Data Center.
"We can now quantify the changed odds" due to climate change and thus start to assess risk levels, added Stott, who edited the study along with peers from the U.S. data center.


http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/10/1266 5235-2011-texas-drought-was-20-times-more-likely-d ue-to-warming-study-says?lite
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A gust front passed through Naples from the south a short while ago. This is an image of the three-layer shelf cloud that accompanied it. I had only my iPad camera and no time to get to a better vantage point, as it was moving quickly, so it's not a great shot. But, still, nicer to wake up to than yet another cloudless day...

Naples


Shot came out nice Nea! Thanks for sharing.
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Quoting MahFL:


How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.

-He was thinking about wrestling...that's why he thinks he's off topic....LOL.
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Already have thunderstorms forming near the Volusia County and Brevard County coast and coming ashore ahead of this activity coming up from West Palm Beach.

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A gust front passed through Naples from the south a short while ago. This is an image of the three-layer shelf cloud that accompanied it. I had only my iPad camera and no time to get to a better vantage point, as it was moving quickly, so it's not a great shot. But, still, nicer to wake up to than yet another cloudless day...

Naples
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Ooooh, I'm so sorry, but my antivirus software came with the optional anti-idiocy package pre-installed, so I'm unable to open Watts' site. Say, I can send you a download link if you'd like to install it on your own computer; it'll probably help clear up some of your confusion. ;-)



Same as it ever was....
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Quoting BahaHurican:


Good Morning, all.


I pointed this out yesterday that this area near S FL is interesting and infact it appears to be getting better organized this morning with a weak low forming near Key West.

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HPC might want to consider uping these totals across FL as there has been some excessive rains with these thunderstorms coming thru here.

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Quoting JupiterKen:


Did you look at the historical data for the Alert Airport location or just cherry-pick (as usual).

I am sure you have perused this article

Link

which is referenced in this post

Link

Same old Nea... blinded by dogma.
Ooooh, I'm so sorry, but my antivirus software came with the optional anti-idiocy package pre-installed, so I'm unable to open Watts' site. Say, I can send you a download link if you'd like to install it on your own computer; it'll probably help clear up some of your confusion. ;-)
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Good Morning, all.
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All of this activity in S FL is going to transition into C FL as the morning goes on and as it moves up in our direction daytime heating will ad more fuel to produce strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the orlando area between 12pm to 3pm so get ready as this should be an areawide rain event later today.


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Quoting Neapolitan:
"These temperatures are well within their average for this date."

Really?Those looking on without ideological blinders will recognize that "maximum temperature records" are by definition not "well within their average". Nice try, though!


Did you look at the historical data for the Alert Airport location or just cherry-pick (as usual).

I am sure you have perused this article

Link

which is referenced in this post

Link

Same old Nea... blinded by dogma.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11154
Quoting JupiterKen:


Too bad you are not a scientist. These temperatures are well within their average for this date. Always the alarmist.
"These temperatures are well within their average for this date."

Really?
Special Weather Statements for Northwest Territories

AWCN11 CWNT 110043
Summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada Tuesday 10 July 2012.

Several maximum temperature records were set today as the Northwest Territories were under the influence of a strong upper ridge.

Location new record previous record records
Max temp record year began
(Celsius)
------------------------------------------------- ----------------
Fort Providence 33.6 29.0 2000 1995
Fort Smith airport 35.1 31.0 1990 1944
Hay River airport 34.3 32.2 1975 1944
Lac la martre 31.4 29.4 1975 1974
Yellowknife airport 31.9 28.9 1975 1942
Those looking on without ideological blinders will recognize that "maximum temperature records" are by definition not "well within their average". Nice try, though!
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1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
...EMILIA REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 11
Location: 14.6°N 116.6°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.6N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting Neapolitan:
That it's been very warm around much of the Arctic this year--Siberia, northern Canada, northern Europe, the North Atlantic, and so on--and all that heat has helped the ice there decline at an unprecedented pace. It almost certainly won't all vanish this year; there remains only a very small chance of that happening. But it'll be gone in summer within a few years. At least, that's the conclusion most scientists would draw.


Too bad you are not a scientist. These temperatures are well within their average for this date. Always the alarmist.
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1793. LargoFl
Quoting jrweatherman:


Scientists rely on data for a very short period in our globes history. It is hard for people to believe that based on that data that it is actually fact. Just like religion, scientists want to disprove that Jesus was the son of God by using fact when it is very much based on faith. In both cases, people are not going to believe science.
..maybe its because people dont actually see, a massive abrupt change around them,climate change? whats that? I dont see any changes.....thats why people dont believe it, the weather I personally saw 50-55 years ago, is NOT the weather i see around me today..yet the kids today have no idea, what I am talking about, they have never experienced it themselves, so..people will NOT believe it untill..the BIG change comes..and if it is a slow slow process..maybe they never will.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting Tribucanes:
When I read Jeff's still skeptical section on climate change I can't help but get frustrated. 97% of climate experts say it's a man driven change and yet the public remains in latest polls on the subject at around 35-45% of Americans don't believe in GW. Why in the world would our citizenry be so out of touch with such a vital scientific fact? Sarcastic only there, I know why.


Scientists rely on data for a very short period in our globes history. It is hard for people to believe that based on that data that it is actually fact. Just like religion, scientists want to disprove that Jesus was the son of God by using fact when it is very much based on faith. In both cases, people are not going to believe science.
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The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
Which One?
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/
http://www.thedwu.com/

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1790. LargoFl
SO WHAT if ALL the Artic Ice Melts?....read this......................Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane - a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide - have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.

The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.

In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov of the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, who led the 8th joint US-Russia cruise of the East Siberian Arctic seas, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed.

"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said.

"I was most impressed by the sheer scale and the high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them," he said.

Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tons of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire Arctic region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change.

Dr Semiletov's team published a study in 2010 estimating that the methane emissions from this region were in the region of 8 million tons a year but the latest expedition suggests this is a significant underestimate of the true scale of the phenomenon.

In late summer, the Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev conducted an extensive survey of about 10,000 square miles of sea off the East Siberian coast, in cooperating with the University of Georgia Athens. Scientists deployed four highly sensitive instruments, both seismic and acoustic, to monitor the "fountains" or plumes of methane bubbles rising to the sea surface from beneath the seabed.

"In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the seabed," Dr Semiletov said.

"We carried out checks at about 115 stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale - I think on a scale not seen before. Some of the plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere - the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal," he said.

Dr Semiletov released his findings for the first time last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. He is now preparing the study for publication in a scientific journal.

The total amount of methane stored beneath the Arctic is calculated to be greater than the overall quantity of carbon locked up in global coal reserves so there is intense interest in the stability of these deposits as the polar region warms at a faster rate than other places on earth.

Natalia Shakhova, a colleague at the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said that the Arctic is becoming a major source of atmospheric methane and the concentrations of the powerful greenhouse gas have risen dramatically since pre-industrial times, largely due to agriculture.

However, with the melting of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, the huge stores of methane that have been locked away underground for many thousands of years might be released over a relatively short period of time, Dr Shakhova said.

"I am concerned about this process, I am really concerned. But no-one can tell the timescale of catastrophic releases. There is a probability of future massive releases might occur within the decadal scale, but to be more accurate about how high that probability is, we just don't know," Dr Shakova said.

"Methane released from the Arctic shelf deposits contributes to global increase and the best evidence for that is the higher concentration of atmospheric methane above the Arctic Ocean," she said.

"The concentration of atmospheric methane increased unto three times in the past two centuries from 0.7 parts per million to 1.7ppm, and in the Arctic to 1.9ppm. That's a huge increase, between two and three times, and this has never happened in the history of the planet," she added.

Each methane molecule is about 70 times more potent in terms of trapping heat than a molecule of carbon dioxide. However, because methane it broken down more rapidly in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, scientist calculate that methane is about 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a hundred-year cycle.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1789. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1788. LargoFl
Gee Houston is getting hammered.....................FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-239-321-481-111230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0035.120711T1024Z-120711T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 517 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...FREEPORT...CLUTE...EDNA...PALACIOS...
SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...JONES CREEK...
GANADO...VAN VLECK...OYSTER CREEK...MARKHAM...SURFSIDE BEACH...LA
WARD AND QUINTANA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 2913 9527 2895 9528 2886 9539 2888 9539
2878 9559 2872 9619 2875 9618 2870 9621
2868 9639 2871 9638 2874 9640 2872 9643
2876 9645 2871 9643 2872 9666 2882 9672
2885 9670 2892 9679 2903 9686

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting JupiterKen:


And we should draw what conclusions from this data?
That it's been very warm around much of the Arctic this year--Siberia, northern Canada, northern Europe, the North Atlantic, and so on--and all that heat has helped the ice there decline at an unprecedented pace. It almost certainly won't all vanish this year; there remains only a very small chance of that happening. But it'll be gone in summer within a few years. At least, that's the conclusion most scientists would draw.
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1786. LargoFl
...................gee the 5 day rainfall forecast,going to be a stormy next 5 days in the south, but some of these area's need the rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temps a few hundred miles from north pole

last 24 hrs

Alert Airport
Past 24 Hour ConditionsMetric Units Date / Time
(EDT) Conditions Temp (°F) Humidity (%) Dew Point (°F) Wind (mph) Pressure (inches) Visibility (miles)
11 July 2012
1:00 Partly Cloudy 40 93 38 NW 6 29.70 15
00:00 Partly Cloudy 40 93 38 NW 6 29.71 15
10 July 2012
23:00 Partly Cloudy 39 88 36 WNW 7 29.72 15
22:00 Mainly Sunny 37 90 34 NW 3 29.73 15
21:00 N/A 39 86 35 E 2 29.77 N/A
20:00 N/A 38 88 35 E 2 29.78 N/A
19:00 N/A 37 89 34 ENE 3 29.80 N/A
18:00 N/A 37 89 35 ENE 3 29.81 N/A
17:00 Mostly Cloudy 38 86 34 E 5 29.82 15
16:00 Partly Cloudy 37 86 34 E 3 29.84 15
15:00 Mainly Sunny 38 86 34 ESE 5 29.85 15
14:00 Partly Cloudy 38 86 34 E 6 29.88 15
13:00 Mainly Sunny 38 86 34 E 6 29.89 15
12:00 Mainly Sunny 37 87 34 E 6 29.91 15
11:00 Mainly Sunny 40 86 36 ENE 2 29.93 15
10:00 Mainly Sunny 40 80 35 ENE 3 29.95 15
9:00 Mainly Sunny 40 84 36 N 5 29.97 15
8:00 Sunny 39 89 36 N 5 29.98 15
7:00 Sunny 41 81 35 NNW 3 30.00 15
6:00 N/A 43 82 38 ENE 2 30.02 N/A
5:00 N/A 42 79 36 E 2 30.04 N/A
4:00 N/A 41 81 35 calm 30.06 N/A
3:00 N/A 41 80 35 ENE 3 30.07 N/A
2:00 N/A 41 79 35 ENE 3 30.09 N/A
1:00 N/A 41 80 35 ENE 4 30.09 N/A


And we should draw what conclusions from this data?
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1784. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1783. LargoFl
..going to be a stormy day today, they say worse than yesterday, we shall see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1782. LargoFl
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


That may have been about as closest as I have ever been to being electrocuted. #lightningbolt

Sitting out on my back porch, minding my own business, crafting a project proposal for Artificial Neural Networks when suddenly everything turned white and a bolt cracked in front of me. I reckon it was kind of close, because afterwards I noticed that my jaw and teeth hurt on one side and my right shoulder and hip were curled into my body and spasming. Perhaps I should go inside. Have to head to campus in this weather soon anyway :)

..omg, your lucky to still be around, if it was that close maybe you should get checked up, you never know what might have happened inside your body,good luck to you
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting LargoFl:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

FLZ071>074-111045-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012


That may have been about as closest as I have ever been to being electrocuted. #lightningbolt

Sitting out on my back porch, minding my own business, crafting a project proposal for Artificial Neural Networks when suddenly everything turned white and a bolt cracked in front of me. I reckon it was kind of close, because afterwards I noticed that my jaw and teeth hurt on one side and my right shoulder and hip were curled into my body and spasming. Perhaps I should go inside. Have to head to campus in this weather soon anyway :)

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1780. LargoFl
Quoting MahFL:


How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.
..........LOL..good morning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1779. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..............................this is the 4th day in a row they have a possibility forming off the carolina coastline, will have to watch this area in the days to come
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1778. MahFL
Quoting SETexas74:
Completely off-topic, but is anyone considering pursuing a career in meteorology?


How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.
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1777. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1776. MahFL
Quoting BobWallace:


So far I've saved....


Hmmm, you make many assumptions helping your calculation look favorable, that might not occur for the majority of people.
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1775. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1774. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

FLZ071>074-111045-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 553 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIALEAH TO
3 MILES WEST OF PENNSUCO TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MICCOSUKEE
RESORT...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
HIALEAH GARDENS...
MIAMI LAKES...
MIAMI GARDENS...
INTERSECTION KROME AND U.S. 27...
PINES BLVD AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE...
MIRAMAR...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2580 8022 2578 8038 2558 8055 2575 8071
2585 8076 2609 8055 2605 8026 2594 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 153DEG 13KT 2589 8031 2590 8044
2573 8059

$$

60
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
1773. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good luck Bobby get as close to 4.0 as possible and get a scholarship, college just too expensive these days.

Thanks! I'll do my best.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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