U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherh98:


July has been cool for me mainly because we have had about an inch of rain every day in the last week!


Not here in FL it was 96 in Orlando yesterday with a heat index of 109. I have had however 7.20" of rain so far this month but the weird thing is just 30 miles away at OIA (Orlando International) they have only had .20". What a crazy difference in precip over only 30 miles.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looking at the long range models it appears another Heat Wave is oming for the East and MidWest in 5 to 7 days.



July has been cool for me mainly because we have had about an inch of rain every day in the last week!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Looking at the long range models it appears another Heat Wave is coming for the East and MidWest in 5 to 7 days.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting seminolesfan:


I agree with the sentiment regarding creative lingustics present in the blog posts; More overtly over the past months, IMO. I think we will notice more and more control of WU from its new masters over at TWC. They just bought a new pet and need to teach it to sit and potty outside and such.

I also remember the tunnels, STORMFLOP, and the days of this actually being a more hidden corner of the internet with more weather nerds than bored teens on summer break. Believe it or not this really used to be an 'Underground' Weather community.

I guess I should check and see if
theweatherchannelunderground has any dns leases, yet...



Bit uncalled for, imma remember this comment when I'm doctor (weatherh98)

Thanks

Quoting StormTracker2K:
We may have something to track soon. Looking interesting in the SE Gulf this morning. These systems can go under the radar and come out of no where so I figured I would point it out this morning.



Thanks, yea with this rocket fuel it must be watched
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I'm not calling out anyone specific, but more alluding to the trolling/'blog noise traffic' that fills the pages from time to time.

Genuine weather analysis and learning/teaching posts are always 'good traffic'.
I know for a fact you(GeorgiaStormz) post decent graphics and at least attempt to have a few words about why you posted it and what you see in it.
So, yes; You ARE a weather nerd! :)
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



are you saying im not a weatehr nerd and im just a bored teen?

Ive been lurking here since 06 after katrina and im definitely a weather nerd.
and im not just on here during summer, im an all seasons wu-blogger
I even remember the atrocious looking classic WU :P

So am I.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


I don't believe that man is the biggest cause of Climate Change. This doesn't make me a bad person or in denial, that was out of line. What's also out of line that this blog is all bout Global Warming...

False. Dr. Masters always discussing the main events in the world today whether it be climate change, hurricanes, winter weather, and I respect him for that. I believe Climate Change is caused by the aging of the earth and if I wanted to use prophecy from the Word (bible), this was all predicted. This topic is another subject which I won't go into. I am subject to my opinion and should not receive bashing like you're doing to this dude, even if he is wrong. What really makes you the better person?

All I am saying is calm down and let the guy believe what he wants.. It doesn't make him a bad person to not believe something you and other scientists do.
Not supporting the overwhelming science behind anthropogenic climate change absolutely does not make you nor anyone else a bad person; it only makes you mistaken. The only "bad persons" here are those who knowingly and willfully spread disinformation and misinformation in their (so far fruitful) attempts to keep that scientific truth from being heard. If you ask me, those people are guilty of crimes against humanity. Harsh? Probably. But deservedly so.

So far as the "just calm down" statement, however, I--and many thousands of very knowledgeable and credible scientists--believe we're beyond the point of inaction/non-action. For too long, scientists did just "calm down" and put the scientific facts out there for all to see, crossing their fingers in the hope that people would just "get it", and we could thus all work together to do something to stop the impending doom we're bringing about. Unfortunately, however, those who stand to profit the most financially and/or politically by maintaining the fossil fuel-only status quo have worked overtime and spent billions to keep the petro dollars and the votes rolling in, so science must no longer "just calm down" if life as we know it is to continue.

(And I won't delver too far into biblical prophecy and AGW except to say this: if there actually were some Supreme Being who created this planet, I can't imagine that he, she, or it would be at all pleased to see us, the idiots to whom he entrusted it, intentionally destroy it through greed, ignorance, and willful negligence.)
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


How am I ignoring him? I responded to his post. Twice. As for personal attacks, he not only "attacked" Dr. Jeff Masters and the direction of his blogs, but told people who believe in climate change something along the lines of "go have fun with al gore (idiot)". I never called him names like an idiot, just stated that people who ignore facts, evidence and proof contribute NOTHING positive to the blog, and good riddance if he doesn't like the blog the way it is. I even welcomed him back in advance if he decides to accept FACTS and reality.

I'm sorry, you're right, I'm wrong, I have to learn more, etc. Yes, the one you were posting to "attacked" Dr. M and climate-change-believers, but that doesn't mean you should attack him back. This argument wouldn't have happened if you were patient enough.
If I made you feel frustrated, I apologize. But as I said earlier, it would be nice if you don't use inappropriate manners/language. Thankk you.
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We may have something to track soon. Looking interesting in the SE Gulf this morning. These systems can go under the radar and come out of no where so I figured I would point it out this morning.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting seminolesfan:


I agree with the sentiment regarding creative lingustics present in the blog posts; More overtly over the past months, IMO. I think we will notice more and more control of WU from its new masters over at TWC. They just bought a new pet and need to teach it to sit and potty outside and such.

I also remember the tunnels, STORMFLOP, and the days of this actually being a more hidden corner of the internet with more weather nerds than bored teens on summer break. Believe it or not this really used to be an 'Underground' Weather community.

I guess I should check and see if
theweatherchannelunderground has any dns leases, yet...




are you saying im not a weatehr nerd and im just a bored teen?

Ive been lurking here since 06 after katrina and im definitely a weather nerd.
and im not just on here during summer, im an all seasons wu-blogger
I even remember the atrocious looking classic WU :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
Quoting newt3d:
"However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month."

This is a weird stat, given the 11-month overlap ... with the conclusion that June 2012 was slightly more warm (when compared to average) than May 2011 was.


I agree with the sentiment regarding creative lingustics present in the blog posts; More overtly over the past months, IMO. I think we will notice more and more control of WU from its new masters over at TWC. They just bought a new pet and need to teach it to sit and potty outside and such.

I also remember the tunnels, STORMFLOP, and the days of this actually being a more hidden corner of the internet with more weather nerds than bored teens on summer break. Believe it or not this really used to be an 'Underground' Weather community.

I guess I should check and see if
theweatherchannelunderground has any dns leases, yet...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14885
Actually, there is a seperate blog area specifically for climate change... However when the tropics are quiet it's often found here. Guess not many are interested in the Pacific storms?

Another good rain day for Louisiana. My garden is soaking it up, and my water bill says thank you.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
"However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month."

This is a weird stat, given the 11-month overlap ... with the conclusion that June 2012 was slightly more warm (when compared to average) than May 2011 was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barkeep1967:
I used to come here for tropical information. I was here for the tunnels. This has become nothing but a global warming propaganda website. Please haters tell how Jeff is far more knowledgeable then William Grey or Stephen Hawking, I will go back to Lurking now enjoy your Al Gore ( Idiot) fun because I am done with it. 50 after the hour for me I guess


See ya.
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The next couple of days will be ideal summer conditions, with temps right where they are suppose to be for early July. Temperatures will moderate as we head into the Weekend, with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms.
Today
Mostly
Sunny
High: 84 °F

Tonight
Mostly
Clear
Low: 60 °F

Wednesday
Sunny
High: 85 °F

Wednesday
Night

Mostly
Clear
Low: 63 °F

Thursday
Sunny
High: 87 °F

Thursday
Night

Partly
Cloudy
Low: 68 °F

Friday
Mostly
Sunny
High: 87 °F

Friday
Night

Chance
Thunderstorms
Low: 68 °F

Saturday
Chance
Thunderstorms
High: 85 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
AOI NEAR TEXAS COASTLINE
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/
http://www.thedwu.com/

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BIG storms off shore of SW Florida this morning - should be interesting to see what comes about with the sea breeze this afternoon!!
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The West Heats Up In the interior west, daytime high temperatures will reach into the upper 90s to 100s this week. Temperatures in some localized areas in the southwest may reach into the mid-120s. Link
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..................Tampa Bay 7 day
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She probably has peaked...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 13:29:42 N Lon : 113:06:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
I agree that she has most likely peaked and if she hasn't then I would think a 145mph peak. Her eye is shrinking and becoming less defined with a slightly warmer eyewall. I'm not writing her off but I'm saying she has probaly peaked.
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TS Daniel

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 15.4N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.4N 136.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 139.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 15.2N 157.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Does anyone think Emilia peaked and if not what her peak intensity be?


She probably has peaked...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 13:29:42 N Lon : 113:06:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98E

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207100548
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Currently at 20kts and 1007mb
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Does anyone think Emilia peaked and if not what her peak intensity be?

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New invest in the epac:


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WOW a cat4 with 140mph winds, thats the bottom of my forecasted range of her peak intensity.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

10/0600 UTC 13.3N 112.5W T6.0/6.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.1 6.1

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
490. vanwx
Talk about change in the weather! I'm srarting to think that Cape Verdi storms are an extinct species! Is that because the jetstream has faltered so much? The missing jetstream that gave me the weather of my childhood, the jetsteam that may be missing because the polar area(where climate change is really happening) can no longer drive the jet? Georgia and the Carolinas are the least affected parts of scotus from climate change; is that where the deniers come from?
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Yeah... sorry for interrupting... but I believe each and every person here is posting comments because of their fascination to weather. You currently are ignoring whoever you're talking to, and yet you don't think it's bashing, ignoring, etc. You ARE ignoring him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you think ignoring facts is "wrong", and your statement "In the meantime, those of us who live in the real world and analyze facts and evidence..." proves my opinion. It might be, but it doesn't give you the right to personally attack someone.

Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.

And that's just what I'm gonna do now.


How am I ignoring him? I responded to his post. Twice. As for personal attacks, he not only "attacked" Dr. Jeff Masters and the direction of his blogs, but told people who believe in climate change something along the lines of "go have fun with al gore (idiot)". I never called him names like an idiot, just stated that people who ignore facts, evidence and proof contribute NOTHING positive to the blog, and good riddance if he doesn't like the blog the way it is. I even welcomed him back in advance if he decides to accept FACTS and reality.
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TEST, AL, L, , , , , 89, 2012, TD, O, 2012082212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL892012
AL, 64, 2012082212, , BEST, 0, 118N, 788W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 64, 2012082218, , BEST, 0, 121N, 789W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 64, 2012082300, , BEST, 0, 124N, 790W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 64, 2012082306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 791W, 20, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 64, 2012082312, , BEST, 0, 130N, 792W, 25, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, M,
AL, 64, 2012082318, , BEST, 0, 133N, 793W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 64, 2012082400, , BEST, 0, 136N, 794W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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AL, 64, 2012082412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 802W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 143N, 806W, 40, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 60, 0, 60,
AL, 64, 2012082500, , BEST, 0, 146N, 809W, 45, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 25, 70,
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AL, 64, 2012082512, , BEST, 0, 155N, 813W, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 75, 40, 90, 1008, 150, 35, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082512, , BEST, 0, 155N, 813W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 35, 30, 15, 35, 1008, 150, 35, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082518, , BEST, 0, 158N, 815W, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 75, 40, 90,
AL, 64, 2012082518, , BEST, 0, 158N, 815W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 35, 30, 15, 35,
AL, 64, 2012082600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 817W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 60, 100,
AL, 64, 2012082600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 817W, 65, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 25, 50,
AL, 64, 2012082600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 817W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 20,
AL, 64, 2012082606, , BEST, 0, 170N, 820W, 75, 981, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 60, 100,
AL, 64, 2012082606, , BEST, 0, 170N, 820W, 75, 981, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 25, 50,
AL, 64, 2012082606, , BEST, 0, 170N, 820W, 75, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 20,
AL, 64, 2012082612, , BEST, 0, 180N, 822W, 90, 971, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 90, 75, 100, 1008, 150, 25, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082612, , BEST, 0, 180N, 822W, 90, 971, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 45, 30, 50, 1008, 150, 25, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082612, , BEST, 0, 180N, 822W, 90, 971, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 15, 20, 1008, 150, 25, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082618, , BEST, 0, 190N, 824W, 105, 963, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 75, 100, 1008, 150, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082618, , BEST, 0, 190N, 824W, 105, 963, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 50, 1008, 150, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082618, , BEST, 0, 190N, 824W, 105, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 15, 20, 1008, 150, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082700, , BEST, 0, 201N, 826W, 115, 957, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 75, 100,
AL, 64, 2012082700, , BEST, 0, 201N, 826W, 115, 957, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 50,
AL, 64, 2012082700, , BEST, 0, 201N, 826W, 115, 957, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 15, 20,
AL, 64, 2012082706, , BEST, 0, 210N, 828W, 125, 949, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 80, 100, 1008, 150, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082706, , BEST, 0, 210N, 828W, 125, 949, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 50, 1008, 150, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082706, , BEST, 0, 210N, 828W, 125, 949, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 25, 1008, 150, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 830W, 125, 945, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 80, 100, 1008, 150, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 830W, 125, 945, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 50, 1008, 150, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 830W, 125, 945, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 25, 1008, 150, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082718, , BEST, 0, 232N, 832W, 105, 950, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 80, 100, 1008, 150, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082718, , BEST, 0, 232N, 832W, 105, 950, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 50, 1008, 150, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082718, , BEST, 0, 232N, 832W, 105, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 25, 1008, 150, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 243N, 833W, 95, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 130, 120, 90, 100,
AL, 64, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 243N, 833W, 95, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 40, 50,
AL, 64, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 243N, 833W, 95, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 30, 20, 25,
AL, 64, 2012082806, , BEST, 0, 251N, 833W, 90, 958, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 130, 100, 110, 1008, 150, 15, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082806, , BEST, 0, 251N, 833W, 90, 958, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 60, 45, 55, 1008, 150, 15, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082806, , BEST, 0, 251N, 833W, 90, 958, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 150, 15, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082812, , BEST, 0, 260N, 833W, 90, 956, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 130, 100, 110, 1008, 150, 15, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082812, , BEST, 0, 260N, 833W, 90, 956, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 60, 45, 55, 1008, 150, 15, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082812, , BEST, 0, 260N, 833W, 90, 956, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 150, 15, 110, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082818, , BEST, 0, 269N, 832W, 95, 952, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 140, 100, 120, 1008, 150, 15, 115, 20, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082818, , BEST, 0, 269N, 832W, 95, 952, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1008, 150, 15, 115, 20, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082818, , BEST, 0, 269N, 832W, 95, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 35, 20, 30, 1008, 150, 15, 115, 20, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S,
AL, 64, 2012082900, , BEST, 0, 278N, 830W, 110, 947, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 100, 120, 1008, 150, 20, 135, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, D, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 100, 175
AL, 64, 2012082900, , BEST, 0, 278N, 830W, 110, 947, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 50, 60, 1008, 150, 20, 135, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, D, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 100, 175
AL, 64, 2012082900, , BEST, 0, 278N, 830W, 110, 947, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 35, 25, 30, 1008, 150, 20, 135, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, D, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 100, 175
AL, 64, 2012082906, , BEST, 0, 288N, 824W, 95, 953, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 150, 100, 120, 1008, 150, 20, 115, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082906, , BEST, 0, 288N, 824W, 95, 953, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 40, 60, 1008, 150, 20, 115, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082906, , BEST, 0, 288N, 824W, 95, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 35, 20, 25, 1008, 150, 20, 115, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082912, , BEST, 0, 299N, 816W, 70, 964, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 150, 100, 120, 1008, 150, 20, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082912, , BEST, 0, 299N, 816W, 70, 964, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 40, 60, 1008, 150, 20, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082912, , BEST, 0, 299N, 816W, 70, 964, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 25, 1008, 150, 20, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082918, , BEST, 0, 308N, 803W, 70, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 160, 100, 110, 1008, 150, 20, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082918, , BEST, 0, 308N, 803W, 70, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 75, 40, 60, 1008, 150, 20, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175
AL, 64, 2012082918, , BEST, 0, 308N, 803W, 70, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 25, 1008, 150, 20, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GISPERT, S, 12, NEQ, 175, 175, 125, 175

Future Major Hurricane "Gispert"... LOL... it's in the ATCF as 89L and 64th tropicl cyclone.
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Quoting Barkeep1967:
I used to come here for tropical information. I was here for the tunnels. This has become nothing but a global warming propaganda website. Please haters tell how Jeff is far more knowledgeable then William Grey or Stephen Hawking, I will go back to Lurking now enjoy your Al Gore ( Idiot) fun because I am done with it. 50 after the hour for me I guess

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
Respect the rules.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I am quite calm. But I fail to understand why people who don't believe in scientific evidence come to a blog where scientific evidence is being provided, analyzed and discussed. I don't mean to come across as rude, but in my opinion, the blog loses nothing when someone who willingly ignores facts, evidence and proof, "threatens" to stop coming to the blog because we are all crazy for discussing global warming/climate change. As for trying to bring religion into the debate... I suggest you go to bible study if you feel like discussing that topic. It has zero to do with weather, climate change, global warming, or anything else related to the blog. I am glad you don't want to go into that topic here because it really is not relevant to any discussion.

Also, I am not bashing anyone. I told him specifically if he is happier living in denial, if that makes his life more meaningful or less frightful, he should go along with those thoughts/ideas that make him feel secure. He has that right and no one can take it away from him.

In the meantime, those of us who live in the real world and analyze facts and evidence will continue to do so. Those who ignore it can live with their heads in the sand- nothing necessarily wrong with that, but thats pretty much what ignoring FACTS equates to. To each his own

Yeah... sorry for interrupting... but I believe each and every person here is posting comments because of their fascination to weather. You currently are ignoring whoever you're talking to, and yet you don't think it's bashing, ignoring, etc. You ARE ignoring him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you think ignoring facts is "wrong", and your statement "In the meantime, those of us who live in the real world and analyze facts and evidence..." proves my opinion. It might be, but it doesn't give you the right to personally attack someone.

Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.

And that's just what I'm gonna do now.
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Quoting reedzone:


I don't believe that man is the biggest cause of Climate Change. This doesn't make me a bad person or in denial, that was out of line. What's also out of line that this blog is all bout Global Warming...

False. Dr. Masters always discussing the main events in the world today whether it be climate change, hurricanes, winter weather, and I respect him for that. I believe Climate Change is caused by the aging of the earth and if I wanted to use prophecy from the Word (bible), this was all predicted. This topic is another subject which I won't go into. I am subject to my opinion and should not receive bashing like you're doing to this dude, even if he is wrong. What really makes you the better person?

All I am saying is calm down and let the guy believe what he wants.. It doesn't make him a bad person to not believe something you and other scientists do.


I am quite calm. But I fail to understand why people who don't believe in scientific evidence come to a blog where scientific evidence is being provided, analyzed and discussed. I don't mean to come across as rude, but in my opinion, the blog loses nothing when someone who willingly ignores facts, evidence and proof, "threatens" to stop coming to the blog because we are all crazy for discussing global warming/climate change. As for trying to bring religion into the debate... I suggest you go to bible study if you feel like discussing that topic. It has zero to do with weather, climate change, global warming, or anything else related to the blog. I am glad you don't want to go into that topic here because it really is not relevant to any discussion.

Also, I am not bashing anyone. I told him specifically if he is happier living in denial, if that makes his life more meaningful or less frightful, he should go along with those thoughts/ideas that make him feel secure. He has that right and no one can take it away from him.

In the meantime, those of us who live in the real world and analyze facts and evidence will continue to do so. Those who ignore it can live with their heads in the sand- nothing necessarily wrong with that, but thats pretty much what ignoring FACTS equates to. To each his own
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100852
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE WEST...OR 270/14 KT. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIEL SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED TO ITS NORTH...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS
MODEL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD MOVE ACROSS 140W
LONGITUDE AND PASS INTO THE NOAA CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.

DANIEL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND AN EYE HAS EVEN OCCASIONALLY BEEN
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE
EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT IN BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. DANIEL SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DESPITE
MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 15.4N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.4N 136.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 139.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 15.2N 157.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TS Daniel... 60kt... weakening...
CAT4 MH Emilia... 120kt... peak strength...
INV 98E... 20 kt... 40% chance in 48 hrs...

And... no signs of tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic anywhere. Tomorrow, July 11, is the 7th anniversary of the formation of Tropical Storm Emily (which became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record), and the "nth earliest Nth named storm" streak ends.
FYI, Beryl was tied (with a 1908 storm) to second earliest forming second tropical storm, Chris was the third earliest forming third tropical storm, and Debby was the earliest forming fourth tropical storm.
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Hmmm... I don't see Emilia's eye very clearly. Maybe she's starting to weaken, as mentioned by the NHC.
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120kt EMILIA

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100848
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS
OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A
VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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140 mph Emilia
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
EP, 05, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1125W, 115, 948, HU

130 mph.
would they use 130 or 135 mph?

130 MPH.
I've mentioned this yesterday, you can see it in the previous blog comments.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Good riddance. Deniers of facts will have a hard time discussing with people attempting to analyze facts, evidence, and the potential impact these known facts may have on our lives, our children's lives, and the future of the planet as a whole. If you don't want to believe facts and evidence, no one can make you. I am sorry you are in denial. If dumbing yourself down or simply ignoring the evidence helps you live a happier life, then by all means, indulge in that way of thinking. I just personally think it is selfish to intentionally ignore facts, data and evidence when your grandchildren and their generation, not you, will be the ones forced to deal with problems created, ignored, and left behind by people like yourself.

If you feel like coming back to reality, we will happily welcome you back at any time. Until then, enjoy your trip to Imaginationland


I don't believe that man is the biggest cause of Climate Change. This doesn't make me a bad person or in denial, that was out of line. What's also out of line that this blog is all bout Global Warming...

False. Dr. Masters always discussing the main events in the world today whether it be climate change, hurricanes, winter weather, and I respect him for that. I believe Climate Change is caused by the aging of the earth and if I wanted to use prophecy from the Word (bible), this was all predicted. This topic is another subject which I won't go into. I am subject to my opinion and should not receive bashing like you're doing to this dude, even if he is wrong. What really makes you the better person?

All I am saying is calm down and let the guy believe what he wants.. It doesn't make him a bad person to not believe something you and other scientists do.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


are you at work now? or you go in the morning?


I said I was off. :P
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Derived from the 10July6amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneEmilia:
Its vector had changed from 9.2mph(14.8km/h) WNWest to 8mph(12.8km/h) WNWest
MaxSusWinds had increased from 105knots(121mph)194km/h to 115knots(132mph)213km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 959millibars to 948millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Emilia's path... CSL is CaboSanLucas
The northernmost dot on the longest straight line is IslaSocorro :: ZLO is Manzanillo

The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalDepressionFiveEast became TS.Emilia
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalStormEmilia became HurricaneEmilia
The westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is H.Emilia's most recent position

By 10July6amGMT, H.Emilia had passed 378miles(608kilometres) SSWest of IslaSocorro

Copy&paste csl, zlo, lzc, 10.4n102.5w- 10.7n104.0w- 10.9n105.3w- 11.2n106.7w- 11.5n107.8w- 12.0n108.7w, 12.0n108.7w-12.4n109.4w, 12.4n109.4w-12.8n110.5w, 12.8n110.5w-13.2n111.7w, 13.2n111.7w-13.4n112.5w, 13.2n111.7w-13.372n112.388w, 18.694n110.97w-13.372n112.388w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Im gonna crash,its midnight in sooo cal
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually, I overslept (big time) today because I haven't been getting much sleep lately. Though hindsight reveals there are probably better ways to spend your day off... >_>

Then by the time I was ready to blog, my Internet crashed for like five hours. And well, here I am.


are you at work now? or you go in the morning?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Long Day


Actually, I overslept (big time) today because I haven't been getting much sleep lately. Though hindsight reveals there are probably better ways to spend your day off... >_>

Then by the time I was ready to blog, my Internet crashed for like five hours. And well, here I am.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Walmart will do that to you. :/

Have to work until 9:30 tomorrow.


Long Day
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Better late than never :)


Walmart will do that to you. :/

Have to work until 9:30 tomorrow.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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