U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

Share this Blog
51
+

Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 621 - 571

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14636
Quoting BobWallace:


Do you really put the flapping of a butterfly's wings in the same category as burning 4,558,273,000 tons of coal and 30,210,820,196 barrels of oil each year?



Me no... but making a point, and whatever my opinion on the matter is, I would make it in a more suitable venue... how's the weather up there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not understanding why they're giving this a 40% chance of development. It looks pitiful.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
618. CJ5
Quoting BobWallace:




If we quickly quit using fossil fuels we can lessen the pain that is coming at us.


That is not going to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


30% of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition and going down hill....

You can always replace that corn with Cranberries in you diet, we got like 2 extra harvests because of the mild winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


You can see the rotation over E TX,-W LA, could you imagine if this thing was 200-300 miles south...


I was gonna say the same thing yesterday but did not for fear of starting a "watch that get into the Gulf and blow up" arguments from the lesser experienced folks.......... LOL.

Vorticity has been there at the surface level for two days now but too far North as you state............. :)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Nope, still expecting storms and rain today. PW is in excess of 2 inches, (pushing 2.3, actually), so rain is highly likely.


You can see the rotation over E TX,-W LA, could you imagine if this thing was 200-300 miles south...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe it was my video on the last page, but i dont see why...
its gone now anyway


i never have problems anyway


I'm on my phone I don't usually have problems but..
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting StormPro:
ok....my viewing of this blog is all outta whack....can't plus anything and the posts are losing the right hand side...looked in settings but didnt see any fixes...help!
It should be all good on the new page... video posts are screwing up the blog again.

When pple post a utube that causes this, I end up "ignoring" them to the end of the page, just so I can read the rest of the posts.... not a real solution, but I keep hoping WunderAdmin will actually solve this problem someday.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


30% of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition and going down hill....



I thought the corn has been delicious
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting weatherh98:


I can't see all the comments
I can't plus
I can quote
I can mainly read em all


maybe it was my video on the last page, but i dont see why...
its gone now anyway


i never have problems anyway
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not having any problem..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Happy Bahamian Independence Day to all...

Re CRS's post about corn syrup, the quote that most caught my attention was:

One particular study concluded that reducing the average weight in the wealthier countries by five kilograms can reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector by ten million metric tonnes annually./

Amazing! Just being fat can cause global warming!



30% of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition and going down hill....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormPro:
ok....my viewing of this blog is all outta whack....can't plus anything and the posts are losing the right hand side...looked in settings but didnt see any fixes...help!


I can't see all the comments
I can't plus
I can quote
I can mainly read em all
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Now it probably is back to normal as the comment page changed to 13.
Or, try Chrome. it works better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok....my viewing of this blog is all outta whack....can't plus anything and the posts are losing the right hand side...looked in settings but didnt see any fixes...help!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mom dad lose weight, you will save gas...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Happy Bahamian Independence Day to all...

Re CRS's post about corn syrup, the quote that most caught my attention was:

One particular study concluded that reducing the average weight in the wealthier countries by five kilograms can reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector by ten million metric tonnes annually./

Amazing! Just being fat can cause global warming!


that is known as the "Airline Fee Postulate".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


I understand. But there is a third group of people beside the two you list. Folks who are just learning about climate change. If we let untrue statements about climate stand, do not present the science that shows them wrong, then those people hear only the "denier" side.

I'm quite involved in discussions about ways to lessen climate change, but that discussion is not really what this site is about. We/I do drift into that topic occasionally if someone brings it up. But this blog is about climate and weather.

If you'd like to check a site that is highly involved in ways we minimize climate change let me recommend one...

Link


Thanks for the link...very informative and useful info..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
...........looks like Houston can dry out today

Nope, still expecting storms and rain today. PW is in excess of 2 inches, (pushing 2.3, actually), so rain is highly likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Happy Bahamian Independence Day to all...

Re CRS's post about corn syrup, the quote that most caught my attention was:

One particular study concluded that reducing the average weight in the wealthier countries by five kilograms can reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector by ten million metric tonnes annually./

Amazing! Just being fat can cause global warming!



Happy independence day to you bahamians:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Happy Bahamian Independence Day to all...

Re CRS's post about corn syrup, the quote that most caught my attention was:

One particular study concluded that reducing the average weight in the wealthier countries by five kilograms can reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector by ten million metric tonnes annually./

Amazing! Just being fat can cause global warming!

Now everything is causing GW?.i guess now their going to force me to become vegetarian..Back to tropical weather...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all. Happy Bahamian Independence Day to all...

Re CRS's post about corn syrup, the quote that most caught my attention was:

One particular study concluded that reducing the average weight in the wealthier countries by five kilograms can reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector by ten million metric tonnes annually./

Amazing! Just being fat can cause global warming!

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Quoting Autistic2:
Quote button not working

591
He came on yesterday



Thanks, I was afraid he was not commming back after all that flap about his track with Debbie. He does have his own blog and all.

I still say he is on my top 3 list of people I learn from!

Levi, even if is it is slow or dead in Atlantic, looking foward to your next video. Maybee why it is dead?


I think I can answer that.

For early season formation it is almost always necessary to have an upward phase of MJO. Currently, there is a downward phase over the basin. This limits convection and therefore limits development.

Levi works a lot trust that he comes on when he can
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting StormPro:


Yes that is kinda what I was asking and no....it seems there is too much finger pointing about the topic. "you did this" or " no you did this". We all did and the earth has contributed... IMO. Even I being an educated Reagan Conservative cannot argue that mankind hasn't contributed in great part to the warming of the planet. It seems that those who truly grasp the concept sometimes spend too much time and effort arguing with those who will never acknowledge the existence of GW. Let’s try to focus our efforts on exactly the examples you have given and other possible ways of easing the affects...arguing with those that have no far reaching influence or ownership of GW only will frustrate you into giving up....once again this is all my opinion


I understand. But there is a third group of people beside the two you list. Folks who are just learning about climate change. If we let untrue statements about climate stand, do not present the science that shows them wrong, then those people hear only the "denier" side.

I'm quite involved in discussions about ways to lessen climate change, but that discussion is not really what this site is about. We/I do drift into that topic occasionally if someone brings it up. But this blog is about climate and weather.

If you'd like to check a site that is highly involved in ways we minimize climate change let me recommend one...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


Do you really put the flapping of a butterfly's wings in the same category as burning 4,558,273,000 tons of coal and 30,210,820,196 barrels of oil each year?

Precisely. A monarch butterfly flapping its wings over the hills of Kenya doesn't seem like much of a match against the 40 trillion liters a day of CO2 we humans pump into the environment. But I may be wrong... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quote button not working

591
He came on yesterday



Thanks, I was afraid he was not commming back after all that flap about his track with Debbie. He does have his own blog and all.

I still say he is on my top 3 list of people I learn from!

Levi, even if is it is slow or dead in Atlantic, looking foward to your next video. Maybee why it is dead?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Nasty line
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIEL (EP042012) 20120710 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 134.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 131.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 128.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM

TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA (EP052012) 20120710 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 113.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 111.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 109.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 90NM

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982012) 20120710 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 99.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 98.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 97.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Three EPAC systems active in the sea...Emilia following Daniel, pre-Fabio(?) following Emilia (although Fabio is forecast to move NW insted of W-WNW.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxWxHHPF:
Hoping this becomes a weather blog again so lurking can be fun. I don't want to ignore people, because some of the people talking about this subject are in fact the best and most entertaining weather bloggers as well.

Does climate impact weather, yup... but so does a butterfly flapping it's wings on the other side of the planet according to some; but we don't debate about whether we should kill all the butterflies here or get angry when someone says, "no, it's not a butterfly, it's a bird or a dragonfly". Can't we all just get along?

Hey look, we have a hurricane in the Pacific we can talk about!


Do you really put the flapping of a butterfly's wings in the same category as burning 4,558,273,000 tons of coal and 30,210,820,196 barrels of oil each year?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:
Has anyone seen Levi latley. I know the Atlantic is slow now but he still has a video about debbie up.


He came on yesterday
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Has anyone seen Levi latley. I know the Atlantic is slow now but he still has a video about debbie up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
dont need any help interpreting what i read.


ok, just understand she doenst want a hurricane to hit anyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


I'm not sure what you're asking here. Are you asking if it is too late to stop global warming?

In absolute terms, yes. We've already warmed the planet. It's almost certain that we've caused extreme weather events (storms, heat waves, floods, droughts) that are hurting us.

We've shot a hole in the bottom of the boat. We're taking on water.

But we have an opportunity to keep global warming to get so bad that we would lose coastal cities around the world and make it so hot that we would have to spend most of our time in climate controlled structures and struggle to feed ourselves.

If we quickly quit using fossil fuels we can lessen the pain that is coming at us.

We don't need to shoot more holes in the bottom of the boat.


Yes that is kinda what I was asking and no....it seems there is too much finger pointing about the topic. "you did this" or " no you did this". We all did and the earth has contributed... IMO. Even I being an educated Reagan Conservative cannot argue that mankind hasn't contributed in great part to the warming of the planet. It seems that those who truly grasp the concept sometimes spend too much time and effort arguing with those who will never acknowledge the existence of GW. Let’s try to focus our efforts on exactly the examples you have given and other possible ways of easing the affects...arguing with those that have no far reaching influence or ownership of GW only will frustrate you into giving up....once again this is all my opinion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
First of all your taking my comment out of hand.Sorry that my comment made you have Katrina flashbacks.It could be like another 2010 where the big storms stayed out to sea and didn't harm anybody.It all depends on where the high is.If it's in the wrong at the wrong time their is nothing we can do about that.I have a passion for tracking these storms.Oh sorry for "offending" you.....


Quoting divdog:
very offensive.. have u ever been thru a major hurricane. my guess would be no based on your comments. wishing an active season is just crazy. i dont care if u like tracking them or not this is not a game.


Ok..my 2 cents..you both contribute to this blog..
You both hear my opinion and respect it as well..
but please keep the blog civil and sane...
and no I'm not the blog police..

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

Thanks for the good you both bring here..
I mean that .. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



she doesnt like major hurricane landfalls, she loves fish storms.

She wants a lot of very strong storms, that ALL stay out to sea.

Try reading what she said again
dont need any help interpreting what i read.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
very offensive.. have u ever been thru a major hurricane. my guess would be no based on your comments. wishing an active season is just crazy. i dont care if u like tracking them or not this is not a game.



she doesnt like major hurricane landfalls, she loves fish storms.

She wants a lot of very strong storms, that ALL stay out to sea.

Try reading what she said again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
very offensive.. have u ever been thru a major hurricane. my guess would be no based on your comments. wishing an active season is just crazy. i dont care if u like tracking them or not this is not a game.
I would never wish a major hurricane on nobody.Like I said before I love tracking these storms.Sorry if one hits land.It's nothing we can do about it.Their are other bloggers who love doing what I'm doing.I guess you just want someone to target.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
First of all your taking my comment out of hand.Sorry that my comment made you have Katrina flashbacks.It could be like another 2010 where the big storms stayed out to sea and didn't harm anybody.It all depends on where the high is.If it's in the wrong at the wrong time their is nothing we can do about that.I have a passion for tracking these storms.Oh sorry for "offending" you.....
very offensive.. have u ever been thru a major hurricane. my guess would be no based on your comments. wishing an active season is just crazy. i dont care if u like tracking them or not this is not a game.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting divdog:
why in the heck would you want it to be active. thats just crazy. people who live on the gulf coast want a dead season every year. u act like hurricanes are nothing to worry about so lets have an active august. crazy
First of all your taking my comment out of hand.Sorry that my comment made you have Katrina flashbacks.It could be like another 2010 where the big storms stayed out to sea and didn't harm anybody.It all depends on where the high is.If it's in the wrong at the wrong time their is nothing we can do about that.I have a passion for tracking these storms.Oh sorry for "offending" you.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..............................I hope it has cooled off some with all the showers
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting StormPro:


Definately not trying to perpetuate an argument nor start one but Neo, I believe most of this damage to our environment has occured in the last 80 or so years...GW hasn't been in the news but for 15 or so now...just my opionion but hasn't it been too late to effectively change this course since we really discovered it?


I'm not sure what you're asking here. Are you asking if it is too late to stop global warming?

In absolute terms, yes. We've already warmed the planet. It's almost certain that we've caused extreme weather events (storms, heat waves, floods, droughts) that are hurting us.

We've shot a hole in the bottom of the boat. We're taking on water.

But we have an opportunity to keep global warming to get so bad that we would lose coastal cities around the world and make it so hot that we would have to spend most of our time in climate controlled structures and struggle to feed ourselves.

If we quickly quit using fossil fuels we can lessen the pain that is coming at us.

We don't need to shoot more holes in the bottom of the boat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxWxHHPF:
Hoping this becomes a weather blog again so lurking can be fun. I don't want to ignore people, because some of the people talking about this subject are in fact the best and most entertaining weather bloggers as well.

Does climate impact weather, yup... but so does a butterfly flapping it's wings on the other side of the planet according to some; but we don't debate about whether we should kill all the butterflies here or get angry when someone says, "no, it's not a butterfly, it's a bird or a dragonfly". Can't we all just get along?

Hey look, we have a hurricane in the Pacific we can talk about!

Yes, there was an argument during the early morning. But I think it's all right now. Over, I think.
Yes, there is a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific and there is a disturbance that has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone. There is also a weakening tropical storm headed to the Central Pacific. Some people are talking about a system emerging into the Gulf, and says we should watch the GOM for signs of development. Also, pouch-tracking has started for 2012, starting with P01L (which is a tropical wave located west of the Cape Verde Islands). In addition, because of the stationary front located here in South Korea, heavy rain is falling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...........looks like Houston can dry out today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe the East Pacific will be dead in August will active here in the Atlantic.
why in the heck would you want it to be active. thats just crazy. people who live on the gulf coast want a dead season every year. u act like hurricanes are nothing to worry about so lets have an active august. crazy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hoping this becomes a weather blog again so lurking can be fun. I don't want to ignore people, because some of the people talking about this subject are in fact the best and most entertaining weather bloggers as well.

Does climate impact weather, yup... but so does a butterfly flapping it's wings on the other side of the planet according to some; but we don't debate about whether we should kill all the butterflies here or get angry when someone says, "no, it's not a butterfly, it's a bird or a dragonfly". Can't we all just get along?

Hey look, we have a hurricane in the Pacific we can talk about!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-102130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
For the newer bloggers, there will be lot's of talk and discussion over the next several weeks as to the various models and which are preforming well an so on. It's a good idea to familiarize yourself with the different models used by NHC and what they do (some are track models, some are intensity, etc.).....Here is the link to the NHC page discussion the different ones. You can download it or print it out in PDF format too.

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 621 - 571

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
59 °F
Mostly Cloudy