U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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The NWS modified the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier this year which explains why they are using 130mph.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
148 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2012

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From: Mark Tew
Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch

Subject: Minor Modification of Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale Thresholds Effective May 15, 2012

Effective May 15, 2012, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
(SSHWS) will be adjusted slightly to resolve issues associated
with the conversion of units used for wind speed. This change
follows a public comment period conducted in 2011.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane
(CPHC) assign intensities of hurricanes in 5-knot (kt)
increments. For advisory products, these intensities are
converted to miles per hour (mph) and kilometers per hour (km/h),
and then rounded to the nearest 5-mph or 5-km/h increments.
Challenges occur when the current Category 4 intensity is 115 kt
(132.3 mph). Although 115 kt is within the Category 4 range, the
equivalent rounded wind speed in mph is 130 mph, which is in the
Category 3 range. To classify the hurricane as a Category 4 in
both sets of units (kt and mph), NHC and CPHC must incorrectly
convert 115 kt to 135 mph in the advisory products. A similar
issue occurs when the current Category 4 intensity of 135 kt is
converted to km/h.

Effective May 15, 2012, to resolve these rounding issues,
Category 4 on the SSHWS will be broadened by one mph at each end
of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This will
also result in a minor modification of the Category 3 and 5 wind
speed thresholds. The SSHWS will change as follows:

From:

Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h)
Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h)
Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or
higher)

To:

Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h)
Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h)
Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or
higher)

There will be no change to the wind speeds currently assigned to
Categories 1 and 2.

With this change, a 115-kt Category 4 hurricane will have its
intensity properly converted to mph and rounded to the nearest 5
mph (130 mph) and remain within the Category 4 mph range.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im surprised... it's not 135 mph anymore. Would they ever use again?
Who knows what the ACE value for this one is because I'm keeping track of it?

7.06 units.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
The anti-post?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Methurricanes:
fine how aqua-thermic updraft atmospheric system.


Stay with area of interest
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting ernesto2012:




first of all its not a low at the surface and never will be and there is lots of shear in the area...no chance od even being tagged....


Yea because the season is over huh troll?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Link
27N 70W and 8N 55W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
"Blob" is such a un-met term. I never ever use it.

Its part of the Duh-ing down of America.
fine how aqua-thermic updraft atmospheric system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 101438
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


Im surprised... it's not 135 mph anymore. Would they ever use again?
Who knows what the ACE value for this one is because I'm keeping track of it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..........with that HIGH close to florida, this wave just Might..circle around it and link up near new orleans, something to watch these next few days huh

We are Nola casting now?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not understanding why they're giving this a 40% chance of development. It looks pitiful.

So do u :P
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guess 135 mph is no longer being used.

Yeah. That's kinda weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Blob" is such a un-met term. I never ever use it.

Its part of the Duh-ing down of America.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 101439
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTRAL FEATURES BECAME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS DERIVED
FROM SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS BY TAFB AND SAB HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY
TO 115 KT. EMILIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING
IMPEDED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RELAXING
SOMEWHAT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
WEAKENING...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS/LGEM AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285/9.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...OR 270/14 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...A TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FAVORED. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.3N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.2N 146.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Whodathunkit... Daniel is actually going to be the first TC of the CPac... Though at 16N is rather low to give Hawaii more than a few waves... be interesting to see how far W the wave signature lasts...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting Ameister12:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 101438
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Guess 135 mph is no longer being used.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
There are some good rainfall totals around here but they are scattered because these storms have little movement. 2 day rainfall total here of half an inch, just east of Austin near Bastrop Travis County line over 7 inches causing flooding in that area. My dad lives 12 miles north of me and he received almost 3 inches Monday. Last 8 weeks I am up to 3/4's of an inch, last year during same period I had 2.5 inches but my yearly total is now over 20 inches and last year at this time I had 7 inches.


I feel ya, its getting almost as bad here now too. I have dumped just under 0.25 inches in the last 8 weeks. Crops are gone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 101438
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Deleted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That "cluster" over SW Florida is stirring the pot a bit I believe. Why is no one talking about it? Is it a ULL or is this the same tropical wave we were watching a week ago in the Central Atlantic? It's got some spin to it just north of the tip of Cuba.



Loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
1500 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 113.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 113.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 113.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
....................hopefully some of the area's in south florida that missed out on debby's rains will get some out of this system of storms this coming week
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting Patrap:
Any way that stuff over E TX and LA could retrograde and rain gently over the TX hill country for about 48 hrs???

Yeah, I know, wishcasting... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
There are some good rainfall totals around here but they are scattered because these storms have little movement. 2 day rainfall total here of half an inch, just east of Austin near Bastrop Travis County line over 7 inches causing flooding in that area. My dad lives 12 miles north of me and he received almost 3 inches Monday. Last 8 weeks I am up to 3/4's of an inch, last year during same period I had 2.5 inches but my yearly total is now over 20 inches and last year at this time I had 7 inches.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO
SHRINK AND WARM. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65
KT...AND THE OBJECTIVE SCHEME FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN
ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 45 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE NUMBERS...
THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 55 KT. DANIEL IS MOVING ACROSS A
SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 24C...BUT THE
STORM WILL ACTUALLY BE REACHING SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THE FARTHER
WEST IT MOVES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD CURB ANY RE-STRENGTHENING OF
THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY MIRRORS THE GRADUAL DECAY
SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...OR 270/14 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...A TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FAVORED. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.3N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.2N 146.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Patrap:
..........with that HIGH close to florida, this wave just Might..circle around it and link up near new orleans, something to watch these next few days huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...DANIEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 135.1W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST. DANIEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting akailm:
it's really not an issue that warming has occured.. to place the blame on co2 is not a reality.it's a convient theory. h2o certainly is more responsible for heat transferance.in the atmosphere. shall we allocate causes to their sources? thermodynamics suggests such.


I don't get how people can say this with a straight face when a simple high school level science experiment involving alka seltzer tablets and pop bottles can prove it false.

And the effects of H2O, CO2 and other GHGs have all been measured quantified and demonstrated over and over....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
HPC precip map




God I hope that can back to the west just a bit, could give me more than a 1/4 inch of rain for the first time in 2 months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxWxHHPF:


Me no... but making a point, and whatever my opinion on the matter is, I would make it in a more suitable venue... how's the weather up there?


The weather up here broke 80 for the first time this year yesterday. I left two windows open last night, another record for the year.

I'm not sure what you mean by a "more suitable venue".

This blog is about climate and weather. It focuses on tropical weather, but if you've read Jeff's posts it also covers worldwide weather and climate.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting hurricane23:


Not expecting a major out of this one as its northward trajectory should take into cooler sst's rather quickly.

Has about 5 days of SSTs above 26 C, wind shear between 10-20 knots, and OHC values above 0. Not the best environment, but it may allow this disturbance to become Fabio. I could see a mid-grade tropical storm out of it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting ncstorm:
Hmmm... what is that out there along 40W????

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not understanding why they're giving this a 40% chance of development. It looks pitiful.

Looks better in the movies, I gotta admit. It has the "wanna party" look to it, but I think it's pretty close behind Emilia...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting BahaHurican:


Here's an interesting storm track from 1934...

Just when u think u have seen it all...
that storm, did alot of damage to tarpon springs, the old timers still talk about it now and then, it was the last hurricane to actually hit this area if im right on that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe it was my video on the last page, but i dont see why...
its gone now anyway


i never have problems anyway
I haven't been able to figure out what it is about particular videos or the way they r posted that cause this problem. It doesn't happen with every vid.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I was gonna say the same thing yesterday but did not for fear of starting a "watch that get into the Gulf and blow up" arguments from the lesser experienced folks.......... LOL.

Vorticity has been there at the surface level for two days now but too far North as you state............. :)

Link
Betcha a few Texans didn't think it was "too far north".... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
HPC precip map


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Gonna take a break. See Yall later.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9231
Emilia peaked as a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane at the last NHC advisory early this morning. Since then, the eye has become cloud-filled.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting weatherh98:


Nasty line
..if this system stays over new orleans, that tropical wave just now entering the gulf could..link up with this and create something down the line..something to watch for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248


Here's an interesting storm track from 1934...

Just when u think u have seen it all...

http://classic.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_ charts/at_1934_charts/at193403.gif

YOu have to scroll down a bit to see the details of the storm.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
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the 00z Euro..still showing vorticity in the GOM and off the east coast..just interesting to note..should watch these areas

72hours


120 hours
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Quoting jeffs713:

Nope, still expecting storms and rain today. PW is in excess of 2 inches, (pushing 2.3, actually), so rain is highly likely.
..is your area still in a drought situation? hopefully all that rain has eased it some for you, a friend told me the lakes etc are still low
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


30% of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition and going down hill....

..actually you are right there, scientists are worried about the decline in bee's..pestiside overuse is probably the main cause, but remember bee's are so important for our food crops.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not understanding why they're giving this a 40% chance of development. It looks pitiful.



Not expecting a major out of this one as its northward trajectory should take into cooler sst's rather quickly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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