U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Tx drought is going down too in a few days of this rain :P
..thats good news for you folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42269
Tx drought is going down too in a few days of this rain :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Other things like the location / strength of the AB[Azores-Bermuda] high play a role as well. The AB high location matters; if the southern edge is particularly far south, it constrains the ITCZ to the area near the equator, which reduces the potential for Coriolis spin which contributes to TC cyclogenesis. Additionally, a particularly strong high forces a speedy westward motion of the AEWs [African Easterly Waves] also known as Tropical Waves once they hit the water. This fast motion makes it more difficult for Twaves to organize themselves into low pressure areas with strong tight circulation.


start slow. hahah
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Until they bite your arm/leg off or poison you.



... if youre not stupid about it you will be fine
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Quoting weatherh98:


it mainy depends on whn the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) returns and it isnt upposed to come to our area until late july. so thats probably when our next storm will come. after july you dont need MJO as much because conditions become right for evelopment.
Other things like the location / strength of the AB[Azores-Bermuda] high play a role as well. The AB high location matters; if the southern edge is particularly far south, it constrains the ITCZ to the area near the equator, which reduces the potential for Coriolis spin which contributes to TC cyclogenesis. Additionally, a particularly strong high forces a speedy westward motion of the AEWs [African Easterly Waves] also known as Tropical Waves once they hit the water. This fast motion makes it more difficult for Twaves to organize themselves into low pressure areas with strong tight circulation.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting PyrateDiver:
Here is an interesting read on James Lovelock, one of the major players in early climate change theory.

He admits to being alarmist.


Link


He previously painted some of the direst visions of the effects of climate change. In 2006, in an article in the U.K.’s Independent newspaper, he wrote that “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”

Clearly that was alarmist. He still says global warming is happening, just not at the apocalyptic rate he was envisioning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

List of things TropicalAnalystwx13 hates:

- Sharks
- Alligators
- Snakes

I've never actually seen either of those in real life, and I don't want to. I wish the beaches down here had crystal clear water like the Bahamas so that you can see underneath you when you get in the ocean.
..gators are in fresh water lakes streams and ponds,and move from one to another..at night, so if there isnt a gator in your lake today, there might be..tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42269
Quoting weatherh98:


Ihave to shoot snake daily, i live next to a bayou with gators. and i go fishing and catch sharks. dont fear them its cool

Until they bite your arm/leg off or poison you.
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763. txjac
Quoting BobWallace:


Why wouldn't you move to some place where cooling is not as big an issue?

Arizona is likely to get nothing but hotter. Water is going to become a bigger issue.

I'd think somewhere like the Pacific Northwest would make more sense. Much cooler. No water problems. Lots of clean hydro/wind energy.



We'd just move the data center, not a bunch of human beings. We suffered greatly when Ike came through and system downtime caused great issues. Arizona would work for us as aside from being hot we wouldnt have to worry about flooding and wing dameage caused by hurricances. Tornadoes would also be less of an issue.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

List of things TropicalAnalystwx13 hates:

- Sharks
- Alligators
- Snakes

I've never actually seen either of those in real life, and I don't want to. I wish the beaches down here had crystal clear water like the Bahamas so that you can see underneath you when you get in the ocean.


Ihave to shoot snake daily, i live next to a bayou with gators. and i go fishing and catch sharks. dont fear them its cool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oops Pacific NW is subject to Volcanic activity and large Earthquakes, lots of rain too.
Quoting BobWallace:


Why wouldn't you move to some place where cooling is not as big an issue?

Arizona is likely to get nothing but hotter. Water is going to become a bigger issue.

I'd think somewhere like the Pacific Northwest would make more sense. Much cooler. No water problems. Lots of clean hydro/wind energy.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


FL is about the only state in the US that is NOT is a drought right now. Amazing becuase just a month ago most of FL was in a severe drought but that has since been wipped away.
..thanks Debby
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42269
What any single Human believes or not has NO bearing on the Active Terra-forming of Earth's atmosphere.

The Warming continues unabated as we add more Fossil fuel burned toxins into our only atmosphere.

The future will judge us all harshly for not acting in a timely matter to stop the Warming.

Food for thought.

Fresca?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Speaking of webinars,at 10:30 AM CDT the ImpactWeather site will talk about what to expect during the rest of the North Atlantic 2012 season.Those who want to see the webinar register for free at link.

Link
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Hempstead, TX yesterday evening


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Heard that is the most ever for the USA to be going thru some kind of drought, so bring on the rain for everyone that needs it.


FL is about the only state in the US that is NOT is a drought right now. Amazing becuase just a month ago most of FL was in a severe drought but that has since been wipped away.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting txjac:


Actually thats a quite interesting subject. Our company is considering moving our data center to Arizona for this exact reason.


Why wouldn't you move to some place where cooling is not as big an issue?

Arizona is likely to get nothing but hotter. Water is going to become a bigger issue.

I'd think somewhere like the Pacific Northwest would make more sense. Much cooler. No water problems. Lots of clean hydro/wind energy.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Geesh!

Gator bites off swimming teen's arm

Florida teen recovering after encounter with gator

MOORE HAVEN, Fla. (AP) -
A Florida teenager has lost his right arm below the elbow to an attacking alligator.

Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission spokesman Jorge Pino told Fort Myers television station WBBH the teen's arm was still inside the 11-foot alligator when it was hunted down and killed Monday evening.

The television station reports 17-year-old Kaleb Langdale was rushed to a Fort Myers hospital but the arm couldn't be reattached.

Langdale was swimming in the Caloosahatchee River near Moore Haven when the attack occurred.

Matt Baker says the gator swam straight at Langdale. It bit the teen's arm and pulled him under water.

Another friend, Gary Beck says Langdale popped out of the water, screaming "my arm is gone."

Officials say it's alligator mating season and attacks are not uncommon


Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/central-florida/Gator-bit es-off-swimming-teen-s-arm/-/11788162/15459846/-/h twqmk/-/index.html#ixzz20FFdklme



List of things TropicalAnalystwx13 hates:

- Sharks
- Alligators
- Snakes

I've never actually seen either of those in real life, and I don't want to. I wish the beaches down here had crystal clear water like the Bahamas so that you can see underneath you when you get in the ocean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That convection off of tx is enhanced by a ull lol no circle needed.
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That is because the greenies turned on their champion for suggesting nuclear power was the ansewr

You are free to drive a prius, but governments have no place here.

I will keep my Hemi thanks
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Wow, I just realized how much of the United States is experiencing drought conditions.



That's quite a bit.
Heard that is the most ever for the USA to be going thru some kind of drought, so bring on the rain for everyone that needs it.
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Current heat indicies for C FL.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting PyrateDiver:
Here is an interesting read on James Lovelock, one of the major players in early climate change theory.

He admits to being alarmist.


Link
Lovelock was nowhere near a "major player in early climate change theory". He was, in fact, lambasted by climate scientists for his overly-alarmist projections, and was asked to tone down his rhetoric dozens of times. (And to call him "early" is a bit of a misnomer, since climate change theory has been around for well over a century, whereas Lovelock's heyday was just a few decades ago.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divingpyrate:
Funny how Bob shows up, just post the words Obama or Climate change and boom he magically appears

The planet is warming, and for all the hot wind blowing, it has not conclusively been totally blamed on Co2

Like most of the tactics used, keep calling it something until everyone believes.

Even the God Father of Global Warning just stated people are using it as an alarmist tool to get rid of the things they dont like.

Here is the easy way out for those folks. Find a fuel to replace fossil fuels. We will all jump on then. But regulating that position into being, aint going to work

Oooo... can't resist...

Obama!!! Climate change!!!!

[waits to see Bob show up]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
I c we have a er, dissenter of truth among the Hive here.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
746. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
There's a feeling I get when I look to the west
And my spirit is crying for leaving
In my thoughts I have seen rings of smoke through the trees
And the voices of those who stand looking,

and it makes me wonder

really makes me wonder,

And it's whispered that soon, if we all call the tune
Then the piper will lead us to reason
And a new day will dawn for those who stand long
And the forest will echo with laughter



Does anybody remember laughter?


You betcha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gators, like Sharks, attack the shadow above them, its instinct. When we swim on the Surface with he Sun above us, we look like the outline of prey for both animals.

Never swim when seals or other prey food sources are near. And never swim alone.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Wow, I just realized how much of the United States is experiencing drought conditions.



That's quite a bit.

Too much is the word
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Lonewulf:
I have a question for one of you guys that has a better understanding of this than I do. I understand that the computer models aren't predicting anything significant in the Atlantic over the next 5-7 days, but why is the general consensus that there probably won't be a named storm until August or later? What is it that you look at outside of the models that allows you to make that determination?


it mainy depends on whn the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) returns and it isnt upposed to come to our area until late july. so thats probably when our next storm will come. after july you dont need MJO as much because conditions become right for evelopment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is an interesting read on James Lovelock, one of the major players in early climate change theory.

He admits to being alarmist.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


GREAT! Just dealing with a bad mosquito season, seemingly turbocharged by 6+ inches from TS Debby and a wet last week or so. Hopefully mosquito control acts soon. Loving the rain though and so does the grass. Waiting for Ernesto to pop up...could be the first chase of 2012!
LOL... "ernesto" has been popping up far too often this a.m..... lol

But SERIOUSLY...

Surprisingly the mosquitos here haven't been as bad as I expected, given how rainy it was all May and part of June... we are into our "dry" part of the summer now, since we usually don't get much significant rainfall in the first part of July. I'm still expecting to see some action later in July, but whether that actually happens is going to depend a LOT on what happens with this monster high in the ATL... if that moderates over the next 10 days we may see some action. If not, it may be the beginning of August before the tropical ATL begins to heat up.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Geesh!

Gator bites off swimming teen's arm

Florida teen recovering after encounter with gator

MOORE HAVEN, Fla. (AP) -
A Florida teenager has lost his right arm below the elbow to an attacking alligator.

Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission spokesman Jorge Pino told Fort Myers television station WBBH the teen's arm was still inside the 11-foot alligator when it was hunted down and killed Monday evening.

The television station reports 17-year-old Kaleb Langdale was rushed to a Fort Myers hospital but the arm couldn't be reattached.

Langdale was swimming in the Caloosahatchee River near Moore Haven when the attack occurred.

Matt Baker says the gator swam straight at Langdale. It bit the teen's arm and pulled him under water.

Another friend, Gary Beck says Langdale popped out of the water, screaming "my arm is gone."

Officials say it's alligator mating season and attacks are not uncommon


Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/central-florida/Gator-bit es-off-swimming-teen-s-arm/-/11788162/15459846/-/h twqmk/-/index.html#ixzz20FFdklme


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42269
I have a question for one of you guys that has a better understanding of this than I do. I understand that the computer models aren't predicting anything significant in the Atlantic over the next 5-7 days, but why is the general consensus that there probably won't be a named storm until August or later? What is it that you look at outside of the models that allows you to make that determination?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's a feeling I get when I look to the west
And my spirit is crying for leaving
In my thoughts I have seen rings of smoke through the trees
And the voices of those who stand looking,

and it makes me wonder

really makes me wonder,

And it's whispered that soon, if we all call the tune
Then the piper will lead us to reason
And a new day will dawn for those who stand long
And the forest will echo with laughter



Does anybody remember laughter?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Here's an excellent and pertinent video--Welcome to the Rest of Our Lives--highlighting some of what's going on (bonus: Dr. Masters at 4:21, 4:48, 5:07, and 5:30) The "best" part? When the CEO of ExxonMobil shrugs and says (I'm paraphrasing here), "Well, tough; I guess you'll just have to get used to it".



Anyone watching honestly will have to admit that comments such as #728 are fantastically off the mark...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42269
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 09 2012

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 19 2012

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
TODAY'S MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS, AND SIMILAR TO THE
PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 8-14 DAY MEAN, INDICATING A RELATIVELY PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION
FEATURES. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF MEAN CONSIDERING ITS MODEL
SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AND ANALOG ANOMALY CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE
HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL FORECASTS RESEMBLE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERNS THAT HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD.

TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS UNDER EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS,
WHILE THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN
ALASKA WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN ALASKA.

THE EASTERN TROUGH ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE GULF COAST STATES, AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGESTS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN ALASKA WITH BELOW MEDIAN AMOUNTS
FAVORED IN THE WEST.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE
FORECAST TOOLS.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
It's interesting how the CPC has us such at risk for below normal temperatures but only marginally at risk for above average rainfall. What gives?





i would say deeper trooughs and stronger ridges
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Wow, I just realized how much of the United States is experiencing drought conditions.



That's quite a bit.


next drought monitor, there will be no colors over louisiana and east texas, i can asure you
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, hj... just saw that was u... how's it going?


GREAT! Just dealing with a bad mosquito season, seemingly turbocharged by 6+ inches from TS Debby and a wet last week or so. Hopefully mosquito control acts soon. Loving the rain though and so does the grass. Waiting for Ernesto to pop up...could be the first chase of 2012!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's interesting how the CPC has us such at risk for below normal temperatures but only marginally at risk for above average rainfall. What gives?



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Funny how Bob shows up, just post the words Obama or Climate change and boom he magically appears

The planet is warming, and for all the hot wind blowing, it has not conclusively been totally blamed on Co2

Like most of the tactics used, keep calling it something until everyone believes.

Even the God Father of Global Warning just stated people are using it as an alarmist tool to get rid of the things they dont like.

Here is the easy way out for those folks. Find a fuel to replace fossil fuels. We will all jump on then. But regulating that position into being, aint going to work

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42269

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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