U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
1020. bwi
Quoting BobWallace:


I vote for people who I expect will do the right thing.

I've pretty much cleaned up my carbon footprint as much as I can. I need to install solar water heating, but I've got some other house "needs finishing" stuff first.

I do need to purchase some carbon offsets for what I can't eliminate. I've been looking at options but haven't decided which program to use yet.

I donate money to organizations which work on environmental problems.

Any other suggestions?


I put nearly 7000 miles on my bike commuting to work last year. I'm on the planning board for our town, basically trying to get better sidewalks, crosswalks, bus stops, and bike paths, as well as trying to get traffic lights set to better accommodate local traffic (rather than giving ultra-long greens to the long-distance traffic only), so that people can get around our town better by whatever means they choose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101536
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 113.7W MOVING WNW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 115 KT...GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH EMILIA
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AROUND FRI NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
MOTION IS EXPECTED. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED WNW
TRACK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN FORWARD
SPEED.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 135.1W MOVING W AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT...GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE CENTER. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW AROUND THU AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N100W IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER HURRICANE EMILIA IS
MORE THAN 600 NM AWAY FROM THE LOW. THERE IS A MEDIUM 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W
TO 13N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N119W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
1027 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO NEAR 22N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL AS WELL AS NE SWELL GENERATED
BY DANIEL AND EMILIA HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED SEAS OF
7-8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 10N W OF 110W. THE S SWELL COMPONENT WILL
STEADILY SUBSIDE...WHILE LONG PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY THE
TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT ACROSS
THE EQUATORIAL REGION AT 6-7 FT THROUGH THU.

FRESH E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW 15-20
KT ENE WINDS W OF PAPAGAYO. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS COMBINED
LESS THAN 8 FT...EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT THROUGH THU AS
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL DIMINISHES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...INCREASING N-NE WINDS
TO NEAR 20 KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT N OF 27N
BETWEEN 125W AND 133W BY WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL



Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 101710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 12N TO 22N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...
IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W
TO 18N70W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
28N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDERS OF SENEGAL
AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...TO 13N23W AND 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N40W TO 6N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND
41W...FROM 6N TO 7N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 45W...AND
FROM LAND TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO A GULF OF MEXICO 25N85W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO A 19N98W SOUTHERN MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 74W AND
80W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
GOES FROM 22N97W TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS IN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...REACHES LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N84W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR
FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SAME AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN SHEARED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO BY THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW. A CELL OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...
NEAR UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N68W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST AND 83W ALONG THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 0.58 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N29W TO A 30N33W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N35W...TO A 28N50W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 28N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO A GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
28N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N42W 19N43W 16N48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W...TO 29N73W...TO AN
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N84W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THREE
AREAS OF 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. ONE
AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. A SECOND
AREA IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A THIRD AREA
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
When I was living in Missouri, I always had a fear of New Madrid quake because it was overdue. I was glad I do not have to worry about it when I moved to NC because I knew big quakes very rarely occurs in that state. DC quake was a huge surprise to me, but it wasn't that big compared to the quake that New Madrid fault will triggers in future.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Someone earlier mention to be green or greener take the Tri-Rail or Palm Tran... I agree 100%...BUT.... Ever been on either of those modes of transportation in south Florida... ? Not my favorite place to be. I would rather take my chances with a Cat 3.
The big disadvantage w/ Tri-Rail is what happens when u get Off... It's great to move up and down along the coast, but oh so hard to move west from there. And in Broward in particular, Tri-Rail is way, way east of what many pple want to be doing.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting wxchaser97:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 13:55:50 N Lon : 113:56:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees

I'm only quoting myself so others will see this on the next page since this was post #999.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Again, NOAA Weather radio will warn you when there's tornadoes while you're sleeping. Trust me on this, it helps.
oh ok:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1012. ncstorm
Quoting VR46L:
I have a Question for all the Global warming posters what do you actually do to save the planet apart from burn electric to post these lectures ? Just wondering


I have asked that question several times on this blog and got nada..

from the internet..please do your part and help the environment by signing off but if that happen, they wouldnt be able to blog and spread their message?..how computers contribute to global warming..

A screen saver is not an energy saver. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 75% of all the electricity consumed in the home is standby power used to keep electronics running when those TVs, DVRs, computers, monitors and stereos are "off." The average desktop computer, not including the monitor, consumes from 60 to 250 watts a day. Compared with a machine left on 24/7, a computer that is in use four hours a day and turned off the rest of the time would save you about $70 a year. The carbon impact would be even greater. Shutting it off would reduce the machine's CO2 emissions 83%, to just 63 kg a year.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
So you stay all night awake to be prepare to leave in case a tornado happens?
Again, NOAA Weather radio will warn you when there's tornadoes while you're sleeping. Trust me on this, it helps.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes, and Patrap made a wonderful point about mass transit. Unfortunately, there are several states that decided it was a good idea to refuse funds to build mass transit, our great state of Florida being one of them. The fact that it would have created a ton of jobs is actually a side benefit. The eventual route was going to be a square connecting Tampa to Orlando (phase 1) then down to Miami and back across the state to Naples then up to Tampa. That would have not only used the existing interstate system, as Patrap mentioned doing, but it would connect 3 major cities and one larger city together, providing a ton of tourist infusion for Disney World, Busch Gardens and all of the lesser, but still desirable, attractions that exist in Miami and Naples/Fort Myers. That's what happens when you have Mr. Magoo as governor. No vision...
This would be SOOO coolll, especially in a tourist state where pple just don't have cars. I'd love the concept of flying into FLL and being able to get to Tampa / Orlando without having to drive. Eventually could see a similar development from Pensacola to Jax...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Hmmm...violent ground shaking vs. winds over 160 mph...

Shaking it is. I'd take an earthquake over a EF5/C5 tornado/hurricane any day.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
1008. Patrap
The webinar log in is now open.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Someone earlier mention to be green or greener take the Tri-Rail or Palm Tran... I agree 100%...BUT.... Ever been on either of those modes of transportation in south Florida... ? Not my favorite place to be. I would rather take my chances with a Cat 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
NOAA weather radio and watching the news will help at nighttime. They'll warn you about 20-30 minutes before the impact, and you'll be safe underground. I had many close calls all of my life in Missouri and Carolinas (especially with two EF-3s last year) but I was warned :)
So you stay all night awake to be prepare to leave in case a tornado happens?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Emilia is no longer a Category 4.

looking like the winds is at 120 MPH now
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
I've had dreams of encountering or getting killed by tornadoes also.Very scary dreams.But I'd rather go through an f5 tornado and cat 5 hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But nothing is coming out of those.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120709 092606.htm
Climate in Northern Europe Reconstructed for the Past 2,000 Years: Cooling Trend Calculated Precisely for the First Time
Very interesting...I still believe we are messing up our atmosphere and oceans with CO2 pollution and the ph of the ocean is proof of this and is the disappearance of the deep, dense cool waters of the oceans...now, this could really lead to some dramatic climate changes
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/1205 21104635.htm
Latest Southern Ocean Research Shows Continuing Deep Ocean Change
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bastrop was notorious for the record wild fire last year remember?


Now:

Since 500am this morning radar indicates a small area of 6-9 inches of rainfall near Webberville.

Bastrop County OEM has issued an evacuation order for all residents on Comanche Trail off of FM 969. If trapped residents should call 911…the fire department is en route to conduct swift water rescues.

Radar shows a small area of very heavy rainfall continuing along the Bastrop/Travis County line nearly stationary. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches may occur and this will worsen ongoing flooding of small creeks that are already out of banks.
If it ain't one thing, it's another...

Quoting Methurricanes:
ITs not going to be that fast, maybe Hybrids, but full electric will not catch on in 5 -10 years, gas will still be king, right now Hybrids and electric cars are limited to Hipsters, even San Francisco only has a few 100, and its not the money, its the performance.
In the Bahamas, performance would not be a deal... not that many places where you can hit more than 60mph in the first place... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting BobWallace:


I'd say that the Nissan Leaf was the first "practical" EV. GM's EV1 wasn't, best I can tell.

As far as thinking about EVs, we had them back in the 1800s and they were fairly popular. Great for getting around town/short distance stuff. They were pushed aside by gasmobiles due to range issues. Early EVs really disappeared when the electric starter was introduced.

When I'm feeling most optimistic I think we'll see significant price/range improvements within the next five years. Boost range 50% to 70% and drop price about $5,000 and we tip.

--

I don't think autos worried trains all that much when they appeared. Long distance driving in a Model T on unpaved roads and with no gas stations was not competition for rail travel.



Having watched "Who Killed The Electric Car?" which is about the EV1, I thought it had a 150 mile range. That's why I'm perplexed as to why the range on today's EV's isn't any better than what it is seeing as how the battery technology is 15 years newer.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 13:55:50 N Lon : 113:56:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'd rather have any EF5 tornado/ Cat 5 Hurricane than a megathrust earthquake because you get warning of the weather events coming when an earthquake can happen anytime anywhere.

Just ask many people on the East Coast about last year!
5.9 isn't that strong and I'm sure people from California will laughs at that, but I with ya.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting VR46L:


Cheers and true ...BTW its gal


Apologies Ma'am...
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Quoting allancalderini:
I am really scare of Tornadoes only in this year I had three nightmares that a tornado would kill me ,and I had feel an earthquake 7,3 not incredible strong but strong nonetheless.
NOAA weather radio and watching the news will help at nighttime. They'll warn you about 20-30 minutes before the impact, and you'll be safe underground. I had many close calls all of my life in Missouri and Carolinas (especially with two EF-3s last year) but I was warned :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting Waltanater:
Anyone think the area SW of SFLA has a chance of development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis. html

Thunderstorms are persistent over 30 deg C waters.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
It's official Patrap and Rita have called off the wedding. :) I like ya both, hope this doesn't get nastier between you two.


Naw, we always yakk like dat.

I did miss his exit while in Galveston 4 weeks ago, so me tinks hes still slighted maybe.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
I'd rather have any EF5 tornado/ Cat 5 Hurricane than a megathrust earthquake because you get warning of the weather events coming when an earthquake can happen anytime anywhere.

Just ask many people on the East Coast about last year!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
992. VR46L
Quoting RipplinH2O:


Don't feed the monkey's, son, they'll just poo in their hand and throw it at you...


Cheers and true ...BTW its gal
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6971
She is at 140 mph!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Blob south of Florida worth watching? Are conditions favorable in the area? TYVM to anyone who answers.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Emilia is no longer a Category 4.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Quoting VR46L:
I have a Question for all the Global warming posters what do you actually do to save the planet apart from burn electric to post these lectures ? Just wondering


I vote for people who I expect will do the right thing.

I've pretty much cleaned up my carbon footprint as much as I can. I need to install solar water heating, but I've got some other house "needs finishing" stuff first.

I do need to purchase some carbon offsets for what I can't eliminate. I've been looking at options but haven't decided which program to use yet.

I donate money to organizations which work on environmental problems.

Any other suggestions?
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I actually fears earthquakes more than tornadoes or hurricane... you actually get warnings for both EF-5 tornadoes and hurricanes, unlike earthquake. I am sure this is a joke to California people, but that 5.9 earthquake I felt last year scared the heck out of me. Can't imagined 9.0 quake or tsunami...
I am really scare of Tornadoes only in this year I had three nightmares that a tornado would kill me ,and I had feel an earthquake 7,3 not incredible strong but strong nonetheless.
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If any I would the area off the mid tx coast...it does have some decent 850 mb vortucity with it...area off by the keys no vorticity. IMO
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Bluestorm...I would agree with you about the earthquakes...But... If you are out on the road with no radio on a tornado can hit you as fast as an earthquake unless you are paying attention to the skies
You're right... but I'll rather face tornadoes than strong earthquakes. At least I grew up in the Midwest and knows what to do.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
It's official Patrap and Rita have called off the wedding. :) I like ya both, hope this doesn't get nastier between you two.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
..from Jeff Masters

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business

I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

One can go to the webinar site at :45 past for the 2pm EDT event.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting VR46L:
I have a Question for all the Global warming posters what do you actually do to save the planet apart from burn electric to post these lectures ? Just wondering


Don't feed the monkey's, son, they'll just poo in their hand and throw it at you...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I actually fears earthquakes more than tornadoes or hurricane... you actually get warnings for both EF-5 tornadoes and hurricanes, unlike earthquake. I am sure this is a joke to California people, but that 5.9 earthquake I felt last year scared the heck out of me. Can't imagined 9.0 quake or tsunami...
Bluestorm...I would agree with you about the earthquakes...But... If you are out on the road with no radio on a tornado can hit you as fast as an earthquake unless you are paying attention to the skies
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting wxchaser97:
No, she has most likely peaked but is maintaning it's strength for the most part.
I'm sure Emilia peaked at 140 mph... but NHC didn't want to be wrong with the forecast so they kept it low. Emilia look alot stronger than 130 MPH earlier.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'd LOVE to change to EV... but right now buying electricity in the Bahamas is very much not cost effective, since prior gov't placed extremely high tariffs / surcharges on energy usage. Prior to the economic downturn there had been some movement towards the installation of more efficient oil / diesel generators as well as some study of solar energy development. But all that got put on the side by the prior gov't. Basically [aside from the 1/4 billion $$ road project] everything here has been on the European model of cutting back spending along with higher taxes on everybody who uses a car, electricity, water, or who imports anything. Makes it difficult to afford a new, more fuel-efficient automobile. Similarly, a friend of mine was saying minimum installation costs for solar here is $5000+ dollars. Even if you want to kick the $300 / monthly bills, how long will it take u to find that kind of $$ in a recessive economy?


What do you pay per kWh for electricity? How much for gas? How much do you drive and how fast (max legal speed)?
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting weatherbro:
I predict Nino region 1 2 will warm-up to around 2.0C by the Aug 15th-Oct 1st timeframe and for the other regions to follow behind it. Every single model(except for the CFS which is central/west based) is going for either an east-based or equally basin-wide El Nino.

I don't think there's a chance we'll see a Modiki El Nino this Fall. Maybe by mid-Winter but the -PDO should prohibit that. I'm not sure what the CFS is picking up on.
How long do you think it will take the atmosphere to respond to the changes in the Atlantic?
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Anyone think the area SW of SFLA has a chance of development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis. html

Thunderstorms are persistent over 30 deg C waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I actually fears earthquakes more than tornadoes or hurricane... you actually get warnings for both EF-5 tornadoes and hurricanes, unlike earthquake. I am sure this is a joke to California people, but that 5.9 earthquake I felt last year scared the heck out of me. Can't imagined 9.0 quake or tsunami...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Area south of Florida needs to be watched...
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Whole point is to make you get used to it and then you never know. Get accustomed to it and whallla, your suckered in for the long haul permanently
Is that the same as "Voila!", Rita? LOL

We got the international vocab going on in this blog, even when we can't remember the correct spelling for those "for'n" words...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting allancalderini:
I gotta say the EF5 tornado I am really scare of them in terms of Earthquakes I am not scare of the shaking I am scare of the possible tsunami that comes with it.
I went through the Xenia Ohio tornado April 3rd, 1974 at 3:40 PM...Never forget it. Now I am in south Florida and have been through edges of Andrew in 92, Francis and Jeanne in 04, and Wilma in 05....Give me a hurricane anyday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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