U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tribucanes:
It's official Patrap and Rita have called off the wedding. :) I like ya both, hope this doesn't get nastier between you two.


Nah, I was making fun of his piece of $#^! saturn he got rid of and probably didn't like that
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1070. VR46L
Quoting MrMixon:




I'm willing to bet the general lack of responses to queries like this stems from the fact that most of us can easily tell when someone is just being argumentative rather than asking a legitimate question.

The tone you've both used in asking these questions makes it seem that you are trying to tease out some sort of hypocrisy on the part of AGW believers. But my question to you is this: what do you hope to do with this bit of information when/if you find it? Do you think that finding hypocrisy among AGW believers will somehow invalidate the science supporting AGW? Cuz, I'm afraid that's not how science works...



If you really believe in it, you would do your utmost to do your bit . AGW believers should try to live their life, in the way they tell non believers to do so ..but that is just my opinion
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1069. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting washingtonian115:
MJO should be in our basin by then.So that won't be to laughable.

Euro shows a low coming off of Africa a developing 240 hours out.But it's all speculation at this point.

There is no guarantee the MJO is coming back anytime soon.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Tribucanes:
Scott Walker nixed the train plan here and said no to a lot of Federal monies. The train would have connected Madison to Milwaukee and points along with the eventual plan having the train connect to Minneapolis and Chicago. Was not going to be a bullet train or even high speed. Not a great need for it, nor do I believe it would be viable for profit in the future. Patrap, high speed bullet trains would be nice, but to make that something the majority would use is a stretch in many areas. We couldn't build a bullet train or high speed train here because of topography. The money to build an elevated bullet train here is astronomical and not practical. This is an issue lots of America has. In Japan and China where bullet trains are common they are along flat corridors for the most part. High gas millage and electric cars are the future of American transportation. Bullet trains would work in a few areas of America, just not an overwhelming public desire for it. Our gas usage as a country has really plummeted last couple of years, so this is a good sign many, many are taking steps to cut down on consumption. Couple hundred million driver age here in the States, and we, as a people, love to drive. We will not be giving up our cars to take a train anytime soon. The ONE thing I agree with Scott Walker on, the train would create a few thousand short term jobs and a few hundred permanent ones. Long term it just wasn't what was needed, as the future showed potentially huge loses from this endeavor. People would love to take a bullet train here, and would ride it regularly. It's just not possible for many reasons. We're talking about a train that maxes out at 65 here is what was prospected, and most people say to that, "Yawn".
LOTs of discussion about this issue in train blogs around the internet. Even train enthusiasts agree with a lot of what u r saying. OTOH, I note NM has implemented their RailRunner, which is eventually supposed to provide alternative service along the I-25 corridor, where expansion of road / surface travel is really very restricted by topography. There the rail alternative is viable and there seems to be a fair amount of public support for it [especially between Albuquerque and Santa Fe].

Most important thing to me about all of this discussion [and ironically the person who sparked a lot of it has left :o)] is that there has to be more than a "wait and see" fatalistic response to the changes we are encountering. Humanity continues to survive, not through physical evolution of people's bodies, but through our ability to adapt to changes in our environment AND change our environment in response to changing needs.

Quoting BobWallace:


What do you pay per kWh for electricity? How much for gas? How much do you drive and how fast (max legal speed)?
As to the max legal speed, that's 45mph... as to how fast I actually drive, I refuse to reply on the grounds that it may incriminate me... lol. Basically, we have mostly 2-lane roads with a few 4-lane "highways", all considerably narrower than what I'm used to in the S FL area. Gas where I normally buy is currently $5.17 / gal. Electric is:

up to 200 KWH - .1095
201 - 800 KWH - .1195
over 800 KWH - .1495
Fuel Surcharge - .26968 [per KHW]

Prior to 2007 I was getting back .0185 per KWH or so on fuel, so my monthly bill would have been between $150 and $200. Now, my SURCHARGE alone is usually over $300.

[sigh]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21646
1066. Patrap
Oh da irony.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting Patrap:


Im on Magazine Street Uptown, and can get anywhere in the Metro area in 25 minutes from the Airport to NOLA East so I'm tactically good to go.




Detroit Metro Airport is located way outside the city and our Michigan roads fall apart fast and when they fix them you can't go anywhere, which is every summer it seems. People all over the tri-county area and others in southeast MI have to get there and it takes longer with an airport 20-30 miles from downtown with all the cars/ backups and accidents. There really needs to be a solution to the problem but people don't change easily so not many would give up their own car for mass transit.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is very long range (July 26) so take this 12z GFS with a grain of salt. It has a weak low pressure in the Windward Islands. Let's see how GFS continues to show it or not in future runs.

MJO should be in our basin by then.So that won't be to laughable.

Euro shows a low coming off of Africa a developing 240 hours out.But it's all speculation at this point.
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1063. ncstorm




might be invest city here real soon..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14639
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is that the same as "Voila!", Rita? LOL

We got the international vocab going on in this blog, even when we can't remember the correct spelling for those "for'n" words...


Ever heard of bookoo money
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah. That day of the quake in the US east coast last year kinda reminded me of it...I had like a 2 minute flashback or so
Good thing it wasn't any stronger!
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1060. MrMixon
Quoting VR46L:
I have a Question for all the Global warming posters what do you actually do to save the planet apart from burn electric to post these lectures ? Just wondering


Quoting ncstorm:

I have asked that question several times on this blog and got nada..


I'm willing to bet the general lack of responses to queries like this stems from the fact that most of us can easily tell when someone is just being argumentative rather than asking a legitimate question.

The tone you've both used in asking these questions makes it seem that you are trying to tease out some sort of hypocrisy on the part of AGW believers. But my question to you is this: what do you hope to do with this bit of information when/if you find it? Do you think that finding hypocrisy among AGW believers will somehow invalidate the science supporting AGW? Cuz, I'm afraid that's not how science works...

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just looked up... wow. That's a strong quake. I've been in many storms with the winds of 80 mph so I'll be fine with Category 1. I think it'll have to be Category 4 before I get little nervous. I also had many close calls with strong tornadoes so I'm not afraid of them. Earthquakes scares me.


yeah. That day of the quake in the US east coast last year kinda reminded me of it...I had like a 2 minute flashback or so
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Why am I seeing so many politics on here today? Blah...
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Quoting Patrap:
I doubt one could digest my Flavors.

They a tad, er...potent potables.



Geesh man you must be drinking Florida haterade.
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HurricaneHunterJoe: My electricity provider is San Diego Gas and Electric( Sempra Energy )
My cost's go up with the more I use! The first 400KW is like .06 or .08 per KW and then like doubles after 400KW.
I always thought if ya buy a higher volume you get a better price like at Costco


Baseline-power generators operate at a bit over 60% efficiency at converting heat energy into electricity.
The best peak-power generators, single-stage gas turbines, operate at ~40% conversion efficiency.
(Other peak-power generators are far less efficient)
Right off the bat, peak-power generators are burning at least 50% more fuel than baseline-power generators... leading to at least 50% higher fuel costs.
And turning those peak-power generators on&off&on&... is very rougn on the machinery, leading to FAR higher maintenance and replacement costs than baseline-power generators.
The more power that goes through transmission lines, the more resistance those lines have to electricity passing through. That resistance leads to transmission-line heating, which increases resistance further, which leads to more energy being wasted on heating those transmission lines, which leads to buying more peak-power, which lead to sending even more even more electricity through the line (to fill the same demand), which leads to more resistance, which leads to...
All of which you have to pay for.

Then there are the financial speculators like J.P.Morgan, BainsCapital, and similar vulture capitalist "business"es, which make tons of money buying peak-power from the producers then reselling it to the local utilities. Since they have zero generating equipment costs, they can afford to spend lots on high-speed computer systems which can point out which power companies will be needing to buy electricity and how much before the utility companies themselves know.
And it doesn't take much foreknowlege to make a quick buck. Thanks to computerized trading, milliseconds of lead time is more than enough to beat the utilities to purchases, and to jack up electricity-market prices considerably on the resale.
Which you also have to pay for.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Back in April 1991. It was in an afternoon after I came from school. I almost die.
BTW it was in Costa Rica
Just looked up... wow. That's a strong quake. I've been in many storms with the winds of 80 mph so I'll be fine with Category 1. I think it'll have to be Category 4 before I get little nervous. I also had many close calls with strong tornadoes so I'm not afraid of them. Earthquakes scares me.
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Quoting islander101010:
area.of.disturbed.weather.off..w.fl.needs.close.a tt ention


Why is that?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5163
Is very long range (July 26) so take this 12z GFS with a grain of salt. It has a weak low pressure in the Windward Islands. Let's see how GFS continues to show it or not in future runs.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
This is something I wrote about on my blog yesterday that looks a bit more interesting on satellite today...

"P6...Caribbean upper vorticity has elongated into a few features while wedged between the Central America upper ridge in paragraph P5...eastern Caribbean upper ridge in paragraph P7...and North America upper ridge in paragraph P1. This upper vorticity now consists of an upper low in the southern Gulf of Mexico...an upper trough over the Bahamas...with split flow divergence at the boundary between these two features supporting a new surface trough/t-storms near south Florida. This upper vorticity also has an upper vortex in the south Caribbean...and yet another upper vortex south of Bermuda."

However...surface pressures in the east Gulf of Mexico are still high....
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Quoting txjac:


Recycling ..thats what I do a lot of
And drink Light Beer
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'll be fine with Category 1, but 7.5 is little strong for me. When did it happens?


Back in April 1991. It was in an afternoon after I came from school. I almost die.
BTW it was in Costa Rica
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-102130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY





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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Will Daniel make it to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center?

Yes, it has soon it has been persistant enough to make it through thie dry air, so it can make it another 5 degrees.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
1046. txjac
Quoting BobWallace:


I vote for people who I expect will do the right thing.

I've pretty much cleaned up my carbon footprint as much as I can. I need to install solar water heating, but I've got some other house "needs finishing" stuff first.

I do need to purchase some carbon offsets for what I can't eliminate. I've been looking at options but haven't decided which program to use yet.

I donate money to organizations which work on environmental problems.

Any other suggestions?


Recycling ..thats what I do a lot of
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro running--strong vorticity still in the GOM..the euro has been pretty consistent showing it





Probably something invest worthy.Seems it runs into land before getting a real chance to develop.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how about this...I experienced a cat 1 hurricane, and a 7.5 quake
I'll be fine with Category 1, but 7.5 is little strong for me. When did it happens?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Will Daniel make it to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center?




Issued: Jul 10, 2012 8:00 am HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Daniel, located 1330 miles east southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP4 and WMO header WTPZ24. Daniel is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area late tonight.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.

DONALDSON

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Quoting ncstorm:


You shouldnt have to rant or defend why you post about florida..


We post the same images of our own weather as does Patrap show everything that pertains to New Orleans. It's ashame he (Patrap) would call us out from FL for posted our local weather conditions.
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Quoting allancalderini:

How can that be at 50? someone
High confidence, some organization, decent environment... or they know something we don't or they want another 95E.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting Bluestorm5:
5.9 isn't that strong and I'm sure people from California will laughs at that, but I with ya.


how about this...I experienced a cat 1 hurricane, and a 7.5 quake
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Quoting Bluestorm5:

I guess it's the waiting game then, haha.
The high in the Atlantic is forecast to break down and the MJO should be over by Africa allowing robust waves to move off and one possibly developing.GFS and Euro both show a low coming off into the Atlantic developing into Ernesto.I know it's long range but looking at the pattern that won't be to hard to believe.
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1038. ncstorm
12z Euro running--strong vorticity still in the GOM..the euro has been pretty consistent showing it





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14639
98E:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Will Daniel make it to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting BahaHurican:
This would be SOOO coolll, especially in a tourist state where pple just don't have cars. I'd love the concept of flying into FLL and being able to get to Tampa / Orlando without having to drive. Eventually could see a similar development from Pensacola to Jax...


Absolutely. I thought the economic development potential was off the charts. Our local economic development director thought the same thing. Our visitor and convention bureau people were excited by it as well. The amount of intrastate tourism that would have provided to Disney and Busch Gardens alone would have been worth it.
Alas, it was not to be because of governor buzzkill.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have high confidence it will become a tropical cyclone eventually, whether or not it looks good right now.
Oh ok.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The big disadvantage w/ Tri-Rail is what happens when u get Off... It's great to move up and down along the coast, but oh so hard to move west from there. And in Broward in particular, Tri-Rail is way, way east of what many pple want to be doing.
Baha............Perfectly stated... I want my boyfriend standing 10 feet from the train when I get off... Ever been on the east side of Sunrise or Broward Blvd?
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1032. Patrap
2 minutes to the webinar
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Having watched "Who Killed The Electric Car?" which is about the EV1, I thought it had a 150 mile range. That's why I'm perplexed as to why the range on today's EV's isn't any better than what it is seeing as how the battery technology is 15 years newer.



From Wiki -

"The NiMH batteries, rated at 77 amp-hours (26.4 kWh) at 343 volts, gave the cars a range of 160 miles (257 km) per charge, more than twice what the original Gen I cars could muster."

The EV1 was very aerodynamic. It got a lot more mileage from its 26.4kWh batteries than the Leaf gets from its 24kWh batteries. I would guess that Nissan thought a more aerodynamic car wouldn't sell as well, but that's just a guess.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think in the next 10-14 days we'll see that change.

I guess it's the waiting game then, haha.
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A little warmer today under the drizzle. :-)



Light Rain

73°F

23°C

Humidity100%
Wind SpeedS 7 mph
Barometer29.98 in
Dewpoint73°F (23°C)
Visibility4.00 mi
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Quoting allancalderini:

How can that be at 50? someone

They have high confidence it will become a tropical cyclone eventually, whether or not it looks good right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Bluestorm5:
That high pressure in Atlantic isn't gonna move anytime soon... anyone think it'll move out soon and have CV hurricanes this year?
I think in the next 10-14 days we'll see that change.
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Only reoccurring dream I have ever had other than Tribulation dreams have been tornado dreams. Had probably 25 of them from the ages of 10-20, each feeling real and scary as all get out. Was in a tornado as a young boy and my window was blown out as I slept, so it sticks with me that's for sure. F5, with no underground available, would be one of my biggest whatwo moments. How people die in a F5 is everything, structure included, gets lifted into the funnel. You die by being impaled while in the funnel itself in a F5. Many, many miracle stories about survival in a F5 though. Stories that are almost unbelievable and filled with hope even in the worst possible situation.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

How can that be at 50? someone
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That high pressure in Atlantic isn't gonna move anytime soon... anyone think it'll move out soon and have CV hurricanes this year?
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98E up to 50%.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.