U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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1121. MrMixon
Quoting VR46L:


If you really believe in it you would do your utmost to do your bit . AGW believers should try to live their life in the way they tell non believers to do so ..but that is just my opinion


Interesting that you feel that way. Other than specific answers to the question you posed, I haven't observed anyone here telling people how to live, but I suppose it does happen (I don't read every comment). I can understand why that would be frustrating - no one likes being told what to do. But from what I've seen, most of the AGW comments on this blog are about the science itself, not about personal lifestyle choices.

You will always find hypocrites if you look for them... but that doesn't prove anything except that humans are capable of hypocrisy. Playing "gotcha" on an internet forum does nothing to change people's minds - it only drives the wedge a little deeper.
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1120. nigel20
Quoting RitaEvac:


Looks like I might have finally gotten over an inch for the first time in a day since rain event began over the weekend.

That's good to know.
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Miriam is mourned

Norman's no more.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Ouch ouch ouch and finally ouch!
Between each "ouch", please insert the requisite [sigh]... lol

There's an old Walter Hawkins song, "Be Grateful"...

Be Grateful
Because there's someone else who's worse off than you
Be Grateful
Because there's someone else who'd love to be in your shoes


I try to sing that a lot on the days when the electic bill comes... :o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Lots of individual swirls over TX and LA going on. Maybe it'll try some out over the water where the convection is. Has good outflow from high pressure aloft causing the fanning affect.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting washingtonian115:
What's the next name on the list?.


John. All the names are on nhc.gov
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1115. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41829
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Hector's had it!

Ileana's iced!

John jammed
Kristy kicked to the curb
Lane laid off
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1113. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Why am I seeing so many politics on here today? Blah...



what politics??
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That comment 960--has anyone figured out who is that fake scientist 'Steven Goddard' in the link?
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Hector's had it!

Ileana's iced!
What's the next name on the list?.
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1110. Patrap
I guess the materialism bugs some,

Me not so much.

The Jeep runs fine,right down 246 to 45.

LOL



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1109. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41829
Quoting BobWallace:



I recycle (lots), reduce, reuse and compost.


Green Your Driving

Set a specific goal for the amount of trash you want to limit yourself to each week as well as the amount of paper towel and toilet paper consumption. My wife and I have been able to stay under 1 kitchen trash bag per week for the last 4 years and about half a roll of paper towels and less than one roll of toilet paper per week. Those are small things but every little bit helps. We don't have the privilege of being off the grid but our electric bill only hits $200 once each year during August, usually, and we live in a 2650 sq ft home. A/C is the biggest consumer as our electric bill is usually right at $100 during the winter months. We're trying but of course, as like many others, we do have a limited budget. I'd love to apply foam insulation in our attic, a solar array and geothermal A/C but of course those are all pipe dreams at this point...
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Quoting nigel20:

You guys seems to have gotten quite a bit of rain overnight and early this morning.


Looks like I might have finally gotten over an inch for the first time in a day since rain event began over the weekend.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fabio's Finished.

Gilma's gone.


Hector's had it!

Ileana's iced!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ah this explains one of the blobs on the models.

TROUGH LIFTING FROM CUBA TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
PREFERENCE: NON-12Z NAM COMPROMISE

CYCLONIC MOTION SEEN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN CUBA
COINCIDED WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDED INTO FLORIDA. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS A WEAK OR EVEN WEAKENING TROUGH...THE 12Z NAM REPRESENTS
AN OUTLIER...AS IT SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENS THE FEATURE BEFORE IT
ARRIVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THE NAM TENDENCY TO WORK
QUICKLY TOWARD DEVELOPING CLOSED CIRCULATIONS AT THESE
LATITUDES...AND GIVEN THAT IT IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER...OUR
PREFERENCE IS AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION.


Pulled this local model from the NWS Melbourne that seems to illustrate that scenario nicely.

Link
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something is lurking North of Key West...

Animate the NASA site

Link

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Quoting VR46L:


If you really believe in it, you would do your utmost to do your bit . AGW believers should try to live their life, in the way they tell non believers to do so ..but that is just my opinion
I think a lot of them do. I know many bloggers here purport to do so. A lot of the things that could slow GW are just common-sense measures of frugality, diligence and cleanliness. These are qualities that used to be admired and sought after among previous generations of Americans.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting washingtonian115:
And when Fabio dies he is finished.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Tomorrow we maybe can say Daniel's Dead.


Can we say Emilia's Expired by the weekend? :P

Fabio's Finished.

Gilma's gone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32707
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


It's Emilia, Emily is in Atl...don't mix them


You are correct. My comment is corrected as well.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Tomorrow we maybe can say Daniel's Dead.


Can we say Emily's Expired by the weekend? :P
And when Fabio dies he is finished.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
I don't understand the nine point binomial filter used to draw the green line on the bottom graph. Does it only take into account preceeding information? If not, how can the line extend to the last year of data?


I don't like it either. I sort of assumed that it took in data from a few years before and a few years after each year. But with the final few years in the graph the binomial line being based on assumptions about what future temperatures will be. Not rigorous. But I'm not sure.

See if Dr. Masters will answer :)
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1098. txjac
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nah, I was making fun of his piece of $#^! saturn he got rid of and probably didn't like that


Hey now ...I love my Saturn SL2. Always gets me from point A to point B ...lol
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
EP, 05, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1141W, 110, 953, HU

125 mph EMILIA
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Quoting VR46L:


If you really believe in it, you would do your utmost to do your bit . AGW believers should try to live their life, in the way they tell non believers to do so ..but that is just my opinion


Duck! LOL!!...
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Tomorrow we maybe can say Daniel's Dead.


Can we say Emily's Expired by the weekend? :P


It's Emilia, Emily is in Atl...don't mix them
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1094. nigel20
Quoting RitaEvac:
bad beach day


bad boardwalk day


lil muddy



You guys seems to have gotten quite a bit of rain overnight and early this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ah this explains one of the blobs on the models.

TROUGH LIFTING FROM CUBA TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
PREFERENCE: NON-12Z NAM COMPROMISE

CYCLONIC MOTION SEEN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN CUBA
COINCIDED WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDED INTO FLORIDA. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS A WEAK OR EVEN WEAKENING TROUGH...THE 12Z NAM REPRESENTS
AN OUTLIER...AS IT SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENS THE FEATURE BEFORE IT
ARRIVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THE NAM TENDENCY TO WORK
QUICKLY TOWARD DEVELOPING CLOSED CIRCULATIONS AT THESE
LATITUDES...AND GIVEN THAT IT IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER...OUR
PREFERENCE IS AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOTs of discussion about this issue in train blogs around the internet. Even train enthusiasts agree with a lot of what u r saying. OTOH, I note NM has implemented their RailRunner, which is eventually supposed to provide alternative service along the I-25 corridor, where expansion of road / surface travel is really very restricted by topography. There the rail alternative is viable and there seems to be a fair amount of public support for it [especially between Albuquerque and Santa Fe].

Most important thing to me about all of this discussion [and ironically the person who sparked a lot of it has left :o)] is that there has to be more than a "wait and see" fatalistic response to the changes we are encountering. Humanity continues to survive, not through physical evolution of people's bodies, but through our ability to adapt to changes in our environment AND change our environment in response to changing needs.

As to the max legal speed, that's 45mph... as to how fast I actually drive, I refuse to reply on the grounds that it may incriminate me... lol. Basically, we have mostly 2-lane roads with a few 4-lane "highways", all considerably narrower than what I'm used to in the S FL area. Gas where I normally buy is currently $5.17 / gal. Electric is:

up to 200 KWH - .1095
201 - 800 KWH - .1195
over 800 KWH - .1495
Fuel Surcharge - .26968 [per KHW]

Prior to 2007 I was getting back .0185 per KWH or so on fuel, so my monthly bill would have been between $150 and $200. Now, my SURCHARGE alone is usually over $300.

[sigh]



Ouch ouch ouch and finally ouch!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Daniel down to 50 mph.

EP, 04, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1358W, 45, 1000, TS

Emilia down to 125 mph.

EP, 05, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1141W, 110, 953, HU



Tomorrow we maybe can say Daniel's Dead.


Can we say Emilia's Expired by the weekend? :P
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I don't understand the nine point binomial filter used to draw the green line on the bottom graph. Does it only take into account preceeding information? If not, how can the line extend to the last year of data?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Ever heard of bookoo money
Todally... lol Don't have any, though...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Daniel down to 50 mph.

EP, 04, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1358W, 45, 1000, TS

Emilia down to 125 mph.

EP, 05, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1141W, 110, 953, HU
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32707
1087. LargoFl
ok the warnings are starting.....................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ037-040-101900-
MARION-PUTNAM-
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PUTNAM AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALT SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SALT SPRINGS...FORT MCCOY...HOG VALLEY...ORANGE SPRINGS AND
JOHNSON THROUGH 300 PM EDT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2944 8205 2960 8202 2963 8174 2931 8169
2925 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 173DEG 9KT 2941 8185

$$

SHASHY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41829
bad beach day


bad boardwalk day


lil muddy


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Baha............Perfectly stated... I want my boyfriend standing 10 feet from the train when I get off... Ever been on the east side of Sunrise or Broward Blvd?
HO yeah... Have tried the bus system too... NOT so attractive to the average tourist, and much less so to anybody shopping for anything... I actually think the LD polygon FLL-ORL-TPA-NAP would be a more viable tourist / business train than Tri-Rail is.

I'm not saying Tri-Rail doesn't have a role to play; I'm just speaking from the "I can actually afford to drive a car" point of view... In terms of reducing emissions, Tri-Rail isn't going to do much.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


We post the same images of our own weather as does Patrap show everything that pertains to New Orleans. It's ashame he (Patrap) would call us out from FL for posted our local weather conditions.
Dunno why I think pat's been having a not so wonderful day so far...

Quoting VR46L:


Maybe turn off the P.C
If everybody else gets to keep their gas-guzzlers, I get to keep my PC....

Quoting MrMixon:




I'm willing to bet the general lack of responses to queries like this stems from the fact that most of us can easily tell when someone is just being argumentative rather than asking a legitimate question.

The tone you've both used in asking these questions makes it seem that you are trying to tease out some sort of hypocrisy on the part of AGW believers. But my question to you is this: what do you hope to do with this bit of information when/if you find it? Do you think that finding hypocrisy among AGW believers will somehow invalidate the science supporting AGW? Cuz, I'm afraid that's not how science works...

Plus I've seen some pretty constructive replies. And pple have posted some of them before.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
1084. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:

Cloud tops have been warming and the eye is filling in. She is weakening but what will she be at 5pm EDT?

I'd say 110-115mph...
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Quoting VR46L:


Maybe turn off the P.C


I produce my own power. I'm off the grid with solar.

But thanks for caring....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting txjac:


Recycling ..thats what I do a lot of



I recycle (lots), reduce, reuse and compost.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1081. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's 85 degrees today in Raleigh... it's a miracle :)
..thats quite a difference,bet you can really feel it..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41829

Cloud tops have been warming and the eye is filling in. She is weakening but what will she be at 5pm EDT?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1079. nigel20
Good afternoon everyone!

Daily SOI: 6.46
30 Day SOI: -3.76
90 Day SOI: -10.17
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1078. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41829
Good evening all. Hurricane Emilia seems to be peaking nicely. The heatwave in the Northeast and the upper Midwest is broken for the present. Northwest is fine and hot.

Looks pretty good, cept for the drought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anybody know what the reflectivity is by Saginaw? It is usally there and it is not rain but it is on my radarscope app, WU radar, and NWS radar. Also it is not a lake/land breeze.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GW has been mashed over many times here. There is no real debate. More than ample info has been given here over the last couple weeks, months, and years to quell anyone with any doubt that GW is happening and is man driven. Jeff articulates this at a powerful level on WU. All one must do is click on it and read, and then follow up to fact check. When vast majority of all scientists say GW is happening and is man driven, is there really a true debate......NO. It's big business buying politicians and pushing bad science on the masses and hoping it sticks, while burying the real facts at any cost. Last 15 years have been icing on the cake. If you don't want to believe the undeniable science, just look out the window.
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It's 85 degrees today in Raleigh... it's a miracle :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1073. LargoFl
.................................west coast sea breeze is firing up
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41829
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no guarantee the MJO is coming back anytime soon.

But if it does a situation where we get our first cape verde storm of the year in late July isn't out of the question.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
It's official Patrap and Rita have called off the wedding. :) I like ya both, hope this doesn't get nastier between you two.


Nah, I was making fun of his piece of $#^! saturn he got rid of and probably didn't like that
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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