U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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1221. LargoFl
..just got soaked walking the dogs but the worst is just nearing me
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting RitaEvac:
Storm/Cell motions have fallen off to ZERO in SE TX, espcially north of I-10 corridor, if a massive complex ever blows up there is gonna be flooding.


Looks like y'all have had a lot more steady rain over that way than we have here. No flood advisories as yet. But rain moving back into my area now. This one sounds like it's got a little wind with it.


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1219. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Very!

I thought so. We really have had our share of recurving storms the last few years, a pattern like that can only hold for so long.
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1217. icmoore
Quoting Patrap:


Sarcasm is lost on some sport.

It was all in jest.


Use the ignore feature,or hide. You'll feel better .


You don't need to talk down to me or explain about the blog's features I understand.
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1216. LargoFl
Quoting opal92nwf:
Was at the beach in Destin, FL today. There was a lot of organized convective activity and thunderstorms early in the morning, but as noon came around, it all fizzled...
..yeah the rest of the week its supposed to be heavier storms they say
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting opal92nwf:
Is this a favorable pattern for Gulf storm tracks?


Very!
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1214. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..I hope this wasnt your friend..

New Centre Drive
..OMG geez look at that water
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Is this a favorable pattern for Gulf storm tracks?
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1212. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
1211. ncstorm
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Yep. I remember driving a buddy of mine to his house after work one day, got to New Centre and had to drop him off right along College Rd. so he could wade home through waist deep water- felt bad but he wanted to get home and I didn't want to flood my car.

I miss Wilmington and its crazy weather


LOL..I hope this wasnt your friend..

New Centre Drive
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Quoting LargoFl:


Damm!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1208. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

NCZ030>032-102030-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-
342 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PERQUIMANS...BERTIE AND
CHOWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM YEOPIM STATION TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF WOODARD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HERTFORD TO 7
MILES WEST OF PLYMOUTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BURGESS...CAPE
COLONY...SAINT JOHNS...SNUG HARBOR...AND DRUMMOND POINT.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 3596 7696 3615 7676 3605 7671 3605 7670
3617 7671 3629 7642 3613 7629 3614 7637
3619 7646 3611 7632 3600 7652 3605 7669
3595 7672 3592 7669 3588 7673 3588 7682
3581 7689

$$

MONTEFUSCO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Was at the beach in Destin, FL today. There was a lot of organized convective activity and thunderstorms early in the morning, but as noon came around, it all fizzled...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm/Cell motions have fallen off to ZERO in SE TX, espcially north of I-10 corridor, if a massive complex ever blows up there is gonna be flooding.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting ncstorm:


New Center Drive is notorius for flooding..Jim Cantore actually filmed from there when Ex Nicole came to town..


Yep. I remember driving a buddy of mine to his house after work one day, got to New Centre and had to drop him off right along College Rd. so he could wade home through waist deep water- felt bad but he wanted to get home and I didn't want to flood my car.

I miss Wilmington and its crazy weather
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1204. LargoFl
Quoting opal92nwf:

Yikes!
sure is dark skies huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
1203. icmoore
Quoting Patrap:
in This blog, most posters ARE from florida


LoL

common Flor-idiocy


Hmmm wow...born in FL and lived here my entire almost 57 years ... wouldn't live anywhere else either. Don't take too kindly to your name calling...grown ups should play by the rules, too.
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Quoting LargoFl:

Yikes!
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1201. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:


It looks like night there..
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1200. ncstorm
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I don't live in Wilmington anymore, but these are the kind of storms that flood that place QUICK!!

I don't know what part of town you reside, but I would bet New Centre Dr and Racine are gonna be underwater very soon.... be careful down there today


New Center Drive is notorius for flooding..Jim Cantore actually filmed from there when Ex Nicole came to town..
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1199. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
1198. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:


..its a tropical wave headed towards the gulf they said this morning in their briefing
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
1197. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm.What is the satellite appearance.


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Quoting ncstorm:
beaches are catching it



I don't live in Wilmington anymore, but these are the kind of storms that flood that place QUICK!!

I don't know what part of town you reside, but I would bet New Centre Dr and Racine are gonna be underwater very soon.... be careful down there today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm/Cell motions have fallen off to ZERO in SE TX, espcially north of I-10 corridor, if a massive complex ever blows up there is gonna be flooding.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Doppler22:
Who thinks Ernesto will form in July?
July 18th to be precise!....LOL
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Quoting Doppler22:
Who thinks Ernesto will form in July?
Me and I say Florence too.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm.What is the satellite appearance.


nuttin, got an ULL to it's north
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
1189. LargoFl
....................................get ready GT...you have a whole line of storms coming at ya
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting ncstorm:
the area near the bahamas is increasing

Hmmm.What is the satellite appearance.
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1187. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting ncstorm:
the area near the bahamas is increasing



Yea, and a ridge supposed to build off the Carolinas, with heights rising there and for Florida, I'd say Gulf bound with a WNW track

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting ncstorm:
the area near the bahamas is increasing



Another weak min trof going around the high up north?
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Quoting Doppler22:
Who thinks Ernesto will form in July?
I do....
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1183. LargoFl
...a good shower coming thru here now, looks like the rains will be coming out of the south east,moving to the northwest around that HIGH sitting out in the gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heavy rain and hail being reported at Orlando International airport right now. Hail the size of dimes apparently.


A thunderstorm in Florida?! Say it ain't so.
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This is old, but still in affect

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...
northern Galveston County in southeast Texas...
Chambers County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Harris County in southeast Texas...
Brazoria County in southeast Texas...
Matagorda County in southeast Texas...

* until 345 PM CDT

* at 130 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated a persistent area
of training rainfall centered along a line from roughly
Matagorda to West Columbia to Manvel to League City to Oak Island.
While rainfall rates for much of this area isn't particularly high
for southeast Texas... we are beginning to see pockets of 1.5 inch
per hour rates at times. This is falling on increasingly saturated
grounds and may begin to runoff and create minor street and feeder
Road flooding.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include
Pasadena... Baytown... League City... Texas City... Pearland... La
Porte... Friendswood... Deer Park... Alvin... Bay city... Angleton...
Dickinson... South Houston... La Marque... Santa Fe... Bacliff...
Palacios... Webster... West Columbia... Nassau Bay... Taylor Lake
Village... Sweeny... Fresno... El Lago... Manvel... Winnie... Brazoria...
wild Peach Village... Kemah... and Anahuac.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Who thinks Ernesto will form in July?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heavy rain and hail being reported at Orlando International airport right now. Hail the size of dimes apparently.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1178. Patrap
Dad um, dad,um,,,

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
1177. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 13 2012 - 12Z TUE JUL 17 2012

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LAST FEW CYCLES IN
DEPICTING A NEAR NORMAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE JET STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...GENERALLY RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR THE CONUS...WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE ANOMALIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. CONCERNING THE DETAILS...THE
00Z GFS IS CONSIDERED THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAYS 5-7/SUN-TUE...WITH THE 12Z RUN ALSO CONSIDERED
TOO SLOW IN THE NORTHWEST BUT MORE IN PHASE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...INCLUDING SHOWING PERSISTENCE OR SLOW CHANGES
AT BEST FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SPLIT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
FAVORS EARLY SEASON MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES...
PARTICULARLY DAYS 3-5...ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY WARM CORRIDOR
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 7. IN THE EAST...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THAN ACCOMPANIES THE SLOW LIFTING AND
WEAKENING OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH MAY PREVENT THE
MOISTURE FROM INFLUENCING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
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1175. ncstorm
the area near the bahamas is increasing

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1174. VR46L
Quoting schistkicker:



I interpreted it more as:
"If you believe AGW is a serious problem, then get off the internet so that I don't have to read about things that challenge my worldview."

At any rate, it's a clumsy form of cyber-bullying that, again, doesn't propose any fact-based criticism of the data or the science itself. It's only slightly less worn-out than the Al Gore effigy over there in the corner (someone stuff some more straw in that thing, would ya?)...


Na its more to do with using electric...which by enlarge uses fossil fuels

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Here's to hoping for some changes in the ridging before we start getting some ducks in the pond...


000
FXUS62 KMFL 101816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS N FL WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FCST MAINTAINING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES FOR MID JULY.
EMBEDDED IN THE
EAST FLOW WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGHS
INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN BUT THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
THE MAINLAND WITH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST BEING THE MAIN
FOCUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CAROLINA CST AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
A
TUTT LIKE FEATURE WILL ALSO TRACK WEST ACROSS CUBA AND THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND. AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF S FL WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSPORT OF
MOIST FLOW ACROSS S FL WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
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Quoting VR46L:


Sir I am honored , you are honestly one of my favorite bloggers on this forum ..I will lol


Well, thank you Ma'am. For the most part, I understand and respect the messages here. What gets me is the arrogance with which some feel the need to push their opinions. Mostly though, I'm just an old guy trying to learn a little and have some fun...
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1171. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, nige...

Now
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature
87 °F
Feels Like 87 °F
Wind(km/h)
17
10 MPH from SE

A bit dark for a beach day, but otherwise pretty cool...


Temperature
86 °F
Feels Like 97 °F

Wind 25mph

Very nice day to go to the beach.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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