U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

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Storms going an odd way around here...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

EWRC.


you heard it first from me
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Quoting Civicane49:

EWRC.
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1467. skook
Terrible storms in Brandon fl, east of Tampa this afternoon, Trees are down everywhere, during the strongest part of the storm, I saw countless Lightning strikes hitting trees, setting things on fire, poles and trees being blow over.

All Pictures from Fox 13 Tampa Bay

Fox 13



Looking east from channelside(towards brandon)




Crosstown heading towards Brandon




A Home Depot, Across the street from when I work. Our parking lot had much large trees down.




Tons of emergency vehicles all over highway 60, and Falkenburg.
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1465. Morgana
The webinar posted by Patrap post #1410 well worth burning 12 min. of your time.
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Quoting Tazmanian:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.9mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


bout time we got a pinhole
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Quoting NorCalSevereWx:


So a TUTT can help a Storm (increase outflow) once it has formed but makes it hard for one to develop in the first place......I guess it makes sense but my mind is having a hard time with it.


IT always hurts because of shear unless it has an anticyclone then the effects arent great. and yes it increases ventelatiom
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Heavy rain Ocracoke island,OBX.
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I measured a wind of 35mph.You can tell which direction the wind was coming because one side of the tree is very wet well the other not so much.I heard a rumble of thunder or two.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I keep forgetting u weren't here for that... lol

83. presslord 5:14 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Do y'all remember 'Stoopid' from last year? His response to Hebert Boxes was 'The Stoopid Circle'...he drew a huge circle encompassing all of the US East and Gulf coasts, Central America, and the Carribean...it was hilarious...


I got my bloggers wrong... lol


thanks
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Quoting redwagon:


I was actually just looking at someone's infrared post and had a similar thought regarding the current MJO down cycle.
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.9mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
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Quoting charlottefl:


It has a lot to due with position in relation to a storm/wave too. There is a "sweet spot", just like with ULL's. If you get a storm in the right position relative to it it will help ventilate it. Wrong position, well you get the idea.


Bingo!! Mind block released. :)
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1456. ncstorm


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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting NorCalSevereWx mind having a hard time's:


My mind is occupied with: if we got this kind of soup with a 'down' MJO, imagine what might happen when we lift.. especially with Bermuda barricading off most of the NATL.
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Up to 60% for 98E.


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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Quoting NorCalSevereWx:


So a TUTT can help a Storm (increase outflow) once it has formed but makes it hard for one to develop in the first place......I guess it makes sense but my mind is having a hard time with it.


It has a lot to due with position in relation to a storm/wave too. There is a "sweet spot", just like with ULL's. If you get a storm in the right position relative to it it will help ventilate it. Wrong position, well you get the idea.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,the TUTT has been stucked in the Western Atlantic for the past few weeks closing things for development at this time.


So a TUTT can help a Storm (increase outflow) once it has formed but makes it hard for one to develop in the first place......I guess it makes sense but my mind is having a hard time with it.
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Getting some pretty good rains right now.Some wind to move the tree leaves around nothing major...errrr never mind wind has picked up and rain going side ways...
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


No, you didn't, for a few years there every storm was RIP or FISH upon getting an invest.

If you look, there is a rotation all 'round TX, quite spheroid.
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Quoting nigel20:


Temperature
86 °F
Feels Like 97 °F

Wind 25mph

Very nice day to go to the beach.


100.1 the PWS up the hill both say 102 the humidity is 15%....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's not necessary mate, one could replace the words 'regular' 'thunderstorms' and 'Florida' in your post with 'a' 'tropical storm' and 'the Atlantic' respectively and everyone would be flipping out over it, 10 posts every 30 seconds, ect. Point is, the hurricane season is slow atm and most of us are Floridians and they are very exciting to watch especially if you live in the area.
you are so right been 6or7 yrs since i've seen this kind of thunderstorms. Wicked lightning and heavy rolling thunder. AWSOME!!!!!
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Hmmm... is there a new blog, or did everybody just go to eat dinner...
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Quoting weatherh98:


who?

i was just circling every thunderstorm i could see!
I keep forgetting u weren't here for that... lol

83. presslord 5:14 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Do y'all remember 'Stoopid' from last year? His response to Hebert Boxes was 'The Stoopid Circle'...he drew a huge circle encompassing all of the US East and Gulf coasts, Central America, and the Carribean...it was hilarious...


I got my bloggers wrong... lol
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*Poof*
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1441. Patrap
,,most of us.


Amen
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Quoting redwagon:
@1433. LOL. I did not say that.
Quoting weatherh98:


here you go


miss anything?:)
Keep your eye on the bouncing wannabe "b"s. Especially the one S of TX and LA.
;)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh geez it's regular thunderstorms in Florida.Ohhh the horror.Everyone is gonna die.....


That's not necessary mate, one could replace the words 'regular' 'thunderstorms' and 'Florida' in your post with 'a' 'tropical storm' and 'the Atlantic' respectively and everyone would be flipping out over it, 10 posts every 30 seconds, ect. Point is, the hurricane season is slow atm and most of us are Floridians and they are very exciting to watch especially if you live in the area.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Not to single you out. Just a little wu history for anyone who might be interested.

"BLOB" related to possible tropical development was coined here in the first year of these blogs, 2005. Back then, though, the term was not used loosely. Bloggers typed things like, "Should we use the 'B' word yet?" Then "blob" was the equivalent of probably what's now a red circle on the NHC graphic - a significant mass of clouds with a good chance for development.

And, long as I'm here, "POOF" was first used by a young blogger called cjnew as a sweet sign off at the end of a comment. Meant "I'm out of here." Others picked it up and used it that way also. So, if you see old-timers type "Poof" at the end of a comment, doesn't necessarily mean they put you on ignore.
:)


LOL, I remember when POOF meant the person writing was leaving, not that they were ignoring someone. Another rainy day here, and more to come.
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Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Masters webinar Presentation today
Posted by: Patrap, 5:02 PM CDT on July 10, 2012


I watched Dr. Master's presentation live. He gave a very professional and educational presentation and was perfectly framed for the audience it was intended. The insurance industry, who face dealing with mounting financial losses due to our changing climate may be our natural ally in getting government to take action.

The science is real and the impact on lives and liveliehoods is growing. The cost of inaction, in terms of dollars and lives, far outweighs the financial inconveniences required to take action now.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I was about to say, as long as we have TUTTs and ULLs just lying about the basin, we're not going to see huge development.


Yes,the TUTT has been stucked in the Western Atlantic for the past few weeks closing things for development at this time.
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Miami NWS Discussion...

DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS N FL WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FCST MAINTAINING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES FOR MID JULY. EMBEDDED IN THE
EAST FLOW WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGHS
INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN BUT THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
THE MAINLAND WITH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST BEING THE MAIN
FOCUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CAROLINA CST AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A
TUTT LIKE FEATURE WILL ALSO TRACK WEST ACROSS CUBA AND THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND. AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF S FL WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSPORT OF
MOIST FLOW ACROSS S FL WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


If you lived down here you would know that this year is the 1st since about 1997 that has had a normal summertime pattern with daily thunderstorms


If it's the first time in 15 years would it be not normal? What is normal these days? It's been an adventure up in these parts - no telling from day-to-day or week-to-week.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:

No misinterpreting 'RIP', though. lol
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I was about to say, as long as we have TUTTs and ULLs just lying about the basin, we're not going to see huge development.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Is this like CChwx's stoopid circle, only different?


who?

i was just circling every thunderstorm i could see!
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Quoting weatherh98:


here you go
Is this like CChwx's stoopid circle, only different?
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Where's that ULL northeast of the Bahamas headed??
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Can't mow my grass as well and it's only been a week and my grass is atleast 6" high from all of this rain. 7.43" over the last week at my location.
Might have to mow your grass at night and wear some night vision.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting washingtonian115:
But the aoi doesn't have any vorticity unlike the one over the Bahamas.


just remember. TWC circled i :P

hype much?
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Quoting Cat5hit:
Baha - Isn't this the normal lull of the season?
Yep. July, stand by... [though that June too soon didn't work out too well for FL this year...]

Around the first of the month the long-range GFS was shadowing something out in the E/C ATL around the 15th or so... so we may actually get some action towards the end of the month. I'd be surprised to see anything even go to TD before then, though. [The 15th, I mean.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Not to single you out. Just a little wu history for anyone who might be interested.

"BLOB" related to possible tropical development was coined here in the first year of these blogs, 2005. Back then, though, the term was not used loosely. Bloggers typed things like, "Should we use the 'B' word yet?" Then "blob" was the equivalent of probably what's now a red circle on the NHC graphic - a significant mass of clouds with a good chance for development.

And, long as I'm here, "POOF" was first used by a young blogger called cjnew as a sweet sign off at the end of a comment. Meant "I'm out of here." Others picked it up and used it that way also. So, if you see old-timers type "Poof" at the end of a comment, doesn't necessarily mean they put you on ignore.
:)


here you go


miss anything?:)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
R u guys getting any of the rain today?

not yet though...
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Nice!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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