Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

Share this Blog
41
+

The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
Electric Night
Another Hot Sunset 2 (Nikongranny)
Another Hot Sunset 2

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 107 - 57

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting ernesto2012:


the atlantic season is over..our only hope of getting anything is forming on a front...


Are you still intoxicated from the 4th?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5497
Quoting Grothar:


It is hot all over. Has anyone ever done a piece on what caused the temperatures to soar during the 1930's. Growing up, I heard people talking about it all the time. i've read articles, but no clear explanation.




In the early part of the 20th century, it looks like warming on the climate change timescale is attributed to increases in solar energy, decreases in volcanic aerosols, and - to a smaller extent - increases in greenhouse gases. Climate variability (weather noise) on top of that likely exacerbated heat/drought. During periods of drought, temperatures are able to climb much higher, although heat content might not be that much higher due to reduced moisture content (water has a higher specific heat).

The Arctic Multidecadal Oscillation has been suggested as a possible climate variability cause of high-latitude warming in the 1930s:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/200 4/12/the-arctic-climate-impact-assessment/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alice shivers though 10yr low

The weather bureau says temperatures in Alice Springs dropped to their lowest in 10 years this morning.

Bureau spokesman Joel Lisonbee says a temperature of minus 4.9(23.1F) was recorded at 6:00am (ACST).

He says temperatures are expected to stay low for the next few days.

"Last night it dropped to minus 4.9(23.1F), so basically minus five degrees in Alice Springs - that was measured at the Alice Springs airport," he said.

"Minus 4.9(23.1F) is notably cold, it's the coldest Alice Springs has felt in 10 years.

"The last time we dropped this cold was on the first of July 2002."

© ABC 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
El Niño is coming

Australia is heading towards generally drier and warmer than normal conditions with an El Niño event now looking likely, but don't shout about drought yet.

During the past month climate indicators have been giving strong indications that El Niño will return during late winter or early spring.

For many people living on the east coast, these drier conditions will be happily welcomed. Brisbane has had its wettest start to the year in more than a decade, while many Sydneysiders were disappointed by the cold and damp summer. It may even feel like summer begins early as there are indications that spring will be warmer than average.

Farmers usually see the prospect of an El Niño event as bad news. Drought is more likely during El Niño events, however it is too early to tell whether this one will trigger widespread drought conditions. Most of eastern Australia has had above average rainfall this year, meaning that high soil moisture will keep most areas drought free for a while.

There are a number of indications that El Niño is likely to return. In the past month sea surface temperatures have increased by around 0.4 degrees in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean (towards South America). Another indicator is that the easterly trade winds have remained weaker than normal.

During an El Niño event seas are cooler near Australia's east coast and air pressure is generally higher. This difference in atmospheric pressure results in weaker easterly trade winds across the tropical Pacific, with less moisture being driven over eastern parts of the nation.

© Weatherzone 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


Weather patterns & such were such it's mostly blamed on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The Tropical Pacific was cool. The Tropical Atlantic was warm. The jet stream weakened & was farther south, so the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was cut off.

Hard times..


Thanks Skye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sydney has endured its coldest start to July in 15 years.

The first six days of July have failed to reach 17(62.6F) degrees in Sydney for the first time since 1997.

The nippy start to the coldest month of the year was the result of a large and semi stationary high pressure system over southern Australia. This high maintained a persistent flow of cool air from the Southern Ocean into eastern NSW.

Yesterday was the coldest day of the month so far reaching just 14.9 degrees, one below the monthly average. Despite plenty of sunny breaks today, the temperature only reached 16 degrees.

As the centre of the high moves further east across Victoria tomorrow, the cool airflow will be cut off and Sydney should reach 17 degrees for the first time this month.

If Sydney fails to reach 17 degrees once again on Saturday, it will become the coldest first seven days of July in 27 years. In 1985, Sydney remained below 17 degrees for the first 11 days of the month.

© Weatherzone 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lake michigan heating up might not be a good thing...

from "Huroncane" on Wiki, 1996:
"Between 1200 UTC September 14 and 0000 UTC September 15, visible satellite imagery of the vortex revealed a resemblance to a tropical cyclone, with an eye-like feature about 19 miles (30 km) wide.[1] In addition to the eye, convective clouds had also formed, creating the eyewall of a tropical cyclone.[2] Furthermore, feeder bands of convective showers continued extending westward to about 310 miles (500 km). Soon after the cyclone passed buoy 45008, winds turned to the east-northeast and rapidly increased. In contrast to earlier in the storm's life, which had more energy in the high levels (like a cold-core low), now it was stronger near the surface (like a warm-core low)."

There is talk about "Medicanes" over in europe... i realize conditions and steering would have to be close to perfect for some development in the lake, but the potential seems to be there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




there is no Ernesto.

Psssst it was a joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OrchidGrower:
I would guess that U.S. snowfall this winter should be astounding, thanks to the super-warm temps in the Great Lakes.
What is normal water temp?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 10Speed:


Cool. Welcome to the world, Ernesto.




there is no Ernesto.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting etxwx:
Disclaimer: Not an official update...it fact, it's just a little bit of bull.
Non tropical update: Cowclone landfall this morning near 30.9° N 94.0° W. This small system was forecast by the BIGCOW and the FARM models to make landfall in early July. Current speed less than 1 mile per hour. Current direction uncertain and erratic with a tendency to wobble. This small system - tentatively designated as “Ernesto" - is likely to grow and strengthen under the influence of a large and protective upper level low(ing) system hovering nearby. The large low(ing) air breathing mass is producing abundant moisture that will contribute to strengthening of Ernesto even though both systems are currently over land. Elsewhere…cowclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Forecaster: BOVINE


Cool. Welcome to the world, Ernesto.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
June Co2 is in.

Surprised?

395.77ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for June 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7th aniverary of the 7/7 attacks, my thoughts are with our friends across the pond.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting ernesto2012:



we are lucky if we have anymore stors this year with el nino already kicking in...not going to be a great 2012...

Marsha, it would be good luck (J) if we had no stors (F) for the remainder of the this (V) season. That would make for a great 2012 season.

I suspect somehow we'll atleast get over 10 total and I'm not liking the setup of the Bermuda High.

Does anyone know if the Bermuda high this far west tends to stay like that for the entire season or will it move back and forth throughout the season.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since we're making comparisons to 1934 here, especially with regard to a hot pattern over Chicago so early.

Not many storms, but they seemed to have an affinity for CONUS. Note the prominent shift west in the pattern, for all Atlantic systems.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least 99 people have been killed after flash floods caused by torrential rain swept the southern Russian Krasnodar region, officials say.

The floods, the worst there in living memory struck at night, reportedly without warning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18751198
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jeff focused strictly on this heat wave again because it''s the story. Daniel is beautiful in a lot of ways and has a short window remaining under good conditions but is no threat in all likelihood to Hawaii at all. This heatwave was and still is historic and long term outlooks implies that this heatwave and a summer of scorchers to come may induce one of the top five crop losses in US history. Fires are at all time extremes for this time of year too, yet we go on talking about Daniel and storms to come because, really, in the last fifteen or so this has just been the norm. Any crop loss estimates from the devastating derecho?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
That small circulation around 40W has been added to the 12z TAFB Surface Analysis.

That wave about to go into South America reminds me of Rick from 2009.Went into S.A as a swirl came out as a monster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
That small circulation around 40W has been added to the 12z TAFB Surface Analysis.By the way,another low has been added South of CV islands.


Also,they add a low South of CV islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida will be in the cross hairs of a lot of storms this year.So far they only had two storms.Could add more to that count if that high doesn't move out the way. Florida has been quite for a few years now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Swirling currents fuel huge blooms in North Atlantic
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48102003/ns/technolog y_and_science-science/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That small circulation around 40W has been added to the 12z TAFB Surface Analysis.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The area near the Yucatan is really lighting up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:
Bermuda High really starting to make it's stand now
Seems to be a bit farther south this year..
Edit: First image is forcast for 7/11/12..second is for 7/13/12..I thought I'd better clear that up :)





It is further south and also stretches closer to the US Coast. Could very well be the year of it only takes one. Time will tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

'07, the year of persistent PrairieCane Erin. Going to try to find the accompanying surface charts for that storm.


Haven't heard her called PrairieCane before. Apt description. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting washingtonian115:
Storms were land goers it seems..Lol.


Looked like all but a couple of them.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Or 07? Hopefully neither.


'07, the year of persistent PrairieCane Erin. Going to try to find the accompanying surface charts for that storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rookie question whilst tropical activity quiet
What is the reasoning behind the invest numbering system? a)Why start in the nineties and b) Why slip back to start again at 91 if no other current invests? Can't think of another system that constantly moves back to the start- there is presumably some good reason? And how would anyone be able to identify a particular (say) invest 93 from others days before/after.
I am asking for pure interest reasons although also interested to know how many total invests there are in a season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Or 07? Hopefully neither.

Storms were land goers it seems..Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting luvtogolf:


That is if we get any storms in the MDR. All depends on El Nino.
I think we'll get a few storms in the MDR.2009 could do it.And that was year of the shear...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Certainly less "fish" storms this year than the last few years.04 part 2?.


Or 07? Hopefully neither.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434


Hmmmm.... Wrapping a full eyewall?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3481
Quoting luvtogolf:


That is if we get any storms in the MDR. All depends on El Nino.
There are some things that should hold back El nino effects on the atmosphere until after the peak of hurricane season. After that, most hurricanes form outside of the MDR anyway. It is always interesting, and this year will be no exception. jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24750

Hurricane Daniel with 97E coming into the picture behind it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting washingtonian115:
Certainly less "fish" storms this year than the last few years.04 part 2?.


That is if we get any storms in the MDR. All depends on El Nino.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Disclaimer: Not an official update...it fact, it's just a little bit of bull.
Non tropical update: Cowclone landfall this morning near 30.9° N 94.0° W. This small system was forecast by the BIGCOW and the FARM models to make landfall in early July. Current speed less than 1 mile per hour. Current direction uncertain and erratic with a tendency to wobble. This small system - tentatively designated as “Ernesto" - is likely to grow and strengthen under the influence of a large and protective upper level low(ing) system hovering nearby. The large low(ing) air breathing mass is producing abundant moisture that will contribute to strengthening of Ernesto even though both systems are currently over land. Elsewhere…cowclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Forecaster: BOVINE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Gro, here is a better image of that tiny circulation around 7N-40W.



Thanks, PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.

Quiet times continue with nothing on the horizon in the ATL except this interesting feature near 9N and 40W. Below is the OSCAT pass from last night.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OrchidGrower:
I would guess that U.S. snowfall this winter should be astounding, thanks to the super-warm temps in the Great Lakes.


Water temperatures were at record highs throughout the winter and it didn't produce much snow! It rarely got cold enough to snow last winter! At Buffalo, for instance, records for water temperature have been taken 30' below the surface by the Water Treatment Plant since 1927. This year recorded monthly record highs of 37 in February and 41 in March. Nevertheless, snowfall was the third lowest on record at Buffalo, and the lowest by far since records have been kept at the airport site. Last summer also set the all-time record high of 80. That record is in jeopardy this year, as water temps this morning were at daily record highs with a reading of 75.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

...DANIEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 7
Location: 14.9°N 119.2°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981

**Latest SIISE**
Exclusive; New SIISE Estimate of AOI Near The Yucatan 12z 7/7
Link
http://www.thedwu.com/

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:
Bermuda High really starting to make it's stand now
Seems to be a bit farther south this year..

Certainly less "fish" storms this year than the last few years.04 part 2?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:
Bermuda High really starting to make it's stand now
Seems to be a bit farther south this year..

If it stays like that, not good for us in the U.S.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24750
Bermuda High really starting to make it's stand now
Seems to be a bit farther south this year..
Edit: First image is forcast for 7/11/12..second is for 7/13/12..I thought I'd better clear that up :)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
57. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


It is hot all over. Has anyone ever done a piece on what caused the temperatures to soar during the 1930's. Growing up, I heard people talking about it all the time. i've read articles, but no clear explanation.


Weather patterns & such were such it's mostly blamed on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The Tropical Pacific was cool. The Tropical Atlantic was warm. The jet stream weakened & was farther south, so the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was cut off.

Hard times..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 107 - 57

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
86 °F
Mostly Cloudy

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto