Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Storm coming later today. I think we all know where the upward motion of the MJO is.

That system will undergo rapid intensification and become a major hurricane. Just me harmless opinion.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
Quoting LargoFl:
..................hmmm next thurs and friday..you could be right there Hydus
Rain!...I'm loving this looks like we're back to the good ole days with coastal showers early in the day the seabreeze moves inland and comes back towards us in the late afternoon.

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Hottest summer on record?



Here is last summer for the same date range. Last summer ended up with a national mean temperature of 74.3F, just 0.1F below the record set in 1936.



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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
I'm sorry I cant even looks at that graph of Chicago's "possible" 90 degree days based on future emission scenarios in any serious way.

First of all, Chicago's 90 degree days have been decreasing. The long term average is 23 days at Midway airport.

Here are the annual 90> per decade (Midway Airport data)



Number of 90 degree days since 2007

2008:10
2009:7
2010:24
2011:26
2012: 26 to date

So with all the co2 pumped into the air since the 1930's Chicago has never seen nearly the kind of heat we had during the Dust Bowl. Furthermore, we have been getting wetter during the summer months which means lower frequencies of high heat. This summer of course the exception. It's been quite dry (as was 2005).

Officially the number of 100 degree days are fewer mainly because the official temperature site was on the lakeshore throughout the Dust Bowl







Also, Chicago Midway airport had ELEVEN 100F days in 1934







On the NWS Chicago website today:

A Comparison of Chicago and Rockford Heat Waves and Hot Summers

Historic Chicago Heat Waves

Chicago has experienced a number of significant heat waves and hot summers over the years. So how does 2012 compare? Here is a comparison of some of Chicago%u2019s worst hot spells and hottest summers.

Early July Heat Wave 1911
Temperatures hit the century mark three straight days from July 3 through 5 for the first time in Chicago history. This was part of a 5 day hot streak with temperatures above 95.

Late July Heat Wave in 1916
July 26 through July 30, 1916 was arguably the most oppressive period of heat and humidity ever in Chicago. Minimum temperatures were in the 80s for 5 consecutive nights, the longest such string in Chicago history. Warm minimum temperatures are an indication of very high humidity.

1930s Dust Bowl Summers
A series of hot dry summers occurred in the early and mid 1930s. June of 1933 was the hottest June on record for Chicago. The summer of 1936 was the 4th driest on record with only 5.54 inches of rain falling in June, July and August. In the official Chicago record books, the summers of 1934 and 1936 had above normal temperatures but didn't appear to be extremely hot. But these were lakefront temperatures. Inland records from Rockford, Midway and Aurora tell a different story. Many of Rockford's daily record maximum temperatures for the months of May, June, July and August were set in 1934 and still stand today. On May 31 it was 104 at Midway, the earliest 100 temperature recorded at any Chicago area location. Chicago's official all time high temperature of 105 (University of Chicago) was set July 24 1934. It was 109 at Midway on July 23, 1934, the highest temperature ever recorded at a Chicago location (but Midway was not the official observatory for Chicago in 1934). July of 1936 produced the longest period of scorching heat ever in northeast Illinois. July 6 through 14 1936 there were 9 days in a row over 100 at Rockford (all records that still stand) and 8 100s in a row at Midway. The hottest day ever in much of northeast Illinois was July 14 1936. The high temperature was 112 at Rockford, 111 at Aurora and 104 at Midway.

August 1947 Heat Wave
June and July of 1947 featured below normal temperatures, but August was sizzling. The average temperature of 80.2 makes it the hottest August on record. There were 4 days of 100 or greater, including three in a row, and five other days with a temperature of at least 97. .

The Hot Summers of the 1950s
There were 4 consecutive hot summers beginning in 1952. The heat peaked in 1955, Chicago all time warmest summer (1952 was the 12th warmest, 1953 was 7th and 1954 was 9th). July 1955 was the warmest month on record with an average temperature of 81.3. Summer of 1955 had 46 days with a temperature of 90 or greater, including a record 11 in a row from July 26 through August 5. (The summers of 1953 and 1954 also had 11 straight days of 90 weather) this period also had 10 straight minimum temperatures of 75 or greater. This had to be the longest period of very oppressive heat and humidity in Chicago history.

The Hot Dry Summer of 1988
There were 47 days with temperatures in the 90s and 7 days in the 100s, both records. Drought led to lower humidity and lower minimum temperatures than other hot summers. So, despite all the 90 and 100 days, 1988 ended up only the 10th warmest summer.

The Deadly Summer of 1995
Around 600 people died in the mid July heat wave, making this the deadliest weather event in Chicago history. Humidity was extremely high with dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The hottest day was July 13. The high of 104 at O'Hare (official Chicago observatory) was the second highest official temperature in Chicago. The temperature reached 106 at Midway and 103 at Meigs Field. The heat index peaked at 119 at O'Hare and 125 at Midway. This was probably the most intense combination of heat and humidity ever in Chicago. The summer of 1995 was the second warmest on record.
a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstor y.php ?wfo=lot&storyid=85091&source=0" target="_blank">Link
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Eye just got filled in with clouds.

If Daniel is a Category 2, it is a very borderline one (100 mph). More than likely though, the NHC will go 90 mph/80 knots.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Based on satellite presentation and T-numbers, I'm going to go with 85kts/100mph on Daniel at the advisory unless SAB says something drastically otherwise.
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Should get a tropical depression later today.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
TD later Today. Near 100%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Storm coming later today. I think we all know where the upward motion of the MJO is.


yes we do

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yea, baltimore city calling for a high of 105, BWI going for 106 last i heard.

At least I'm up in the cow knee. Gotta go down to the city around 9pm though. Still gonna be 101 @ 9PM tonight, first time i've ever seen it over 100 that late.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2012 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 14:34:50 N Lon : 119:32:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.2mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -20.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Could Daniel do something like this??

I don't think so but anything can happen
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My weather station is all ready saying 100F with a heat index of 116F, in Michigan!!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Tropical Storm coming later today. I think we all know where the upward motion of the MJO is.

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If Cuba mainland can fire nice thunderstorms again this afternoon and feed some energy and instability to the area again then this will be a blob of interest to watch if the energy can have a chance to come together as a system before it moves too far west. Western movement going to continue with this spin and associated storms?
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UW-CIMSS ADT T-numbers support a 100 mph Category 2 Hurricane Daniel. We'll see what SAB says shortly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting LargoFl:
looking at that, seems like anything coming off africa, goes to south america..am I right on that?

maybe but looking at the steering flow for the one by 40W it looks like it may very well miss SA as it should pull up to WNW around 50W-55W then yeah it should miss it but not only that but shear right now is down to 5-10kt the the E Carib and that lower shear is expected to bring lower shear to the Central caribbean in the coming days and SAL is very weak in this area so it may be something to keep an eye on and for the one out in the E Atl too early to tell but has more convection and bigger spin than the one by 40W not only that it has alot of 5kt shear to work with so no problem there has no SAL in the area and I think it has enough moisture and convection to push the SAL out of its way
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


i'll say greater than cat 1

105 is greater then cat 1 so yeah, I'd say anywhere from
95-110
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Pasadena MD

Temperature
103.6 °F
Feels Like 117 °F
Dew Point
74 °F
Humidity
39%

Excessive heat warning in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening...
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..................hmmm next thurs and friday..you could be right there Hydus
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Could Daniel do something like this??
That would be nice, big waves for Hawaii.
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Quoting Articuno:
Daniel will be at 105 mph at next advisory IMO.


i'll say greater than cat 1
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Daniel will be at 105 mph at next advisory IMO.
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Quoting Krycek1984:


The dew point in Cleveland is 77 right now so maybe that's already coming to fruition....the temp is 97, heat index of 113...we are not used to this. It is dangerous.


that's just fugly.
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Could Daniel do something like this??
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I must say he is looking better and have cleared out an eye. Could make a run at a major. Good thing he is all alone out there.

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The low near 40 W is small with little convection at this time but more potent that appearances would give it. It will be interesting to see if the convection can refire once the night falls out there. Last night's OSCAT placed it near 9 N but today's pass not yet downloaded. It would need to separate itself from the ITCZ and pull up to about 10 degrees to have a chance of developing.




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Big changes coming for the eastern half..I simply cant wait...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


maybe 100 - 110 mph? you think higher, lower or the same?
I say with the bursts of convection around the center should increase the winds to 90-105mph maybe stronger.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting hydrus:
If so, not for much longer. The whole ITCZ will shift north soon.
..thanks, looks like we have peace for a few weeks more
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Daniel approaching the dry, stable airmass.

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Daniel has an eye.)Winds could be up at the next advisory since it is looking better.


maybe 100 - 110 mph? you think higher, lower or the same?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting Chicklit:
From 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN TROPICAL ATLC... ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE WEST AFRICA. THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS TODAY...AS MODEL DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE.






Wow, that's a pretty wave
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Quoting LargoFl:
looking at that, seems like anything coming off africa, goes to south america..am I right on that?
If so, not for much longer. The whole ITCZ will shift north soon.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM AROUND NOON AND THEN
INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDING
DOWN TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE SLOW AND ERRATIC WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Still 8 a.m. (old news):
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 23N47W TO 12N44W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTICED ON TPW IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know if you guys took a look at the 12Z surface map but there is somthing that I have not seen for a long time



look at 40W and 24W within the MDR


Yes,I posted a visible image on the first page about the tiny rotation at 40W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA..
SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...BRADFORD...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE AND UNION COUNTIES
SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES AFFECTING COLUMBIA...
GILCHRIST AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES

THE SANTA FE RIVER ROSE TO FLOOD FOLLOWING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ON JUNE 25-27. EXTENSIVE AREAL FLOODING
OCCURRED WITH MANY ROADS CLOSED AND MUCH OF THE CITY OF LIVE OAK
FLOODED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...RESIDENTS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THREATENED PROPERTY. HIGH AND FAST
FLOWING RIVERS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR RECREATION OF ANY KIND. KEEP
CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

&&
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Quoting Progster:


The first few storms, maybe. Erie is very shallow so its temperatures tend to fall off rapidly with the first cold outbreak. The others are deeper but the elevated temperatures are confined to a shallow layer. I'd be more concerned about very high humidity downwind of the lakes for the remainder of the summer as it increases the risk of stronger thunderstorms, as well as high humidex.


The dew point in Cleveland is 77 right now so maybe that's already coming to fruition....the temp is 97, heat index of 113...we are not used to this. It is dangerous.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Could Daniel become Annular?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know if you guys took a look at the 12Z surface map but there is somthing that I have not seen for a long time



look at 40W and 24W within the MDR
looking at that, seems like anything coming off africa, goes to south america..am I right on that?
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I don't know if you guys took a look at the 12Z surface map but there is somthing that I have not seen for a long time



look at 40W and 24W within the MDR
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.