Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Thanks again for that article AtHome. I'm off to bed now. Good night.
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Thanks AtHome, I scrolled through the article but I would like to read it at a later date. It's funny, but I never heard my parents, or grand parents talk about this storm and they lived on Galveston Island at that time. They are all deceased now, but I might try to quiz some old timers around town to see if they can recall anything.
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Quoting hydrus:
1943 off the coast of Texas.


Believe it or not that is known as the Surprise Hurricane and not Humberto. Pretty interesting article on the storm here.

Censorship Of Weather Information
The news of this hurricane was heavily censored by the government due to national security. The loss of production of war materials couldn't be found out by the Axis Powers. This was 1943 and the tides in both the Atlantic and Pacific theaters of war were finally starting to turn. There was a report that the FBI shut down the telegraph office in La Porte because someone had sent a telegram out of the state informing someone of the damages from the hurricane. The only news of the hurricane was published in the two states that were affected, Texas and Louisiana. After this hurricane, never again were advisories censored from the public. War or no war, the risk to human life is too great. This was a lesson learned.


THE 1943 "SURPRISE" HURRICANE©
Lew Fincher
Hurricane Consulting, Inc.
Bill Read
Houston/Galveston Area National Weather Service Office




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ok one last thing,
satellite of june 29 derecho:


Would be better then an Izquierdo...
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Quoting hydrus:
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. The hurricane was down played in effort to keep the area booming..There efforts failed miserably. The average 24 hour wind speed exceeded 76 mph.


How bad would the same hurricane affect Miami today?
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1602. hydrus
I see moistah..
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Just went back and browsed through some NHC archives.. didn't realize that 2003 was their first time with the 5-day intensity/track forecasts. Prior to that it was just out to 72 hours. Wonder how long it'll be until they're able to do a full seven days...
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Link

Microwave image shows Emilia is building an eyewall nicely.
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1599. hydrus
Quoting Astrometeor:


Wait, I got it! It is the....*drum rolls* THE GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE OF 1926! Ta-Da!
No.! it was Bonnie dude..jk...really..jk :)
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Deleted
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Quoting hydrus:
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. The hurricane was down played in effort to keep the area booming..There efforts failed miserably. The average 24 hour wind speed exceeded 76 mph.


Wait, I got it! It is the....*drum rolls* THE GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE OF 1926! Ta-Da!
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1596. hydrus
Neither one looks like an 85 mph hurricane. They listed Ione with top winds of 115..hhhhaaaaa!
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T.C.F.W
R.I.FLAG FLAG
05E/XH/E/C1
MARK
11.15N/108.2W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61084
The cell that just blew up over Rosslyn, VA was loud as heck with lightning. Was gonna go to bed till I heard the ruckus. Night everyone.
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A few cool images of Emilia to end the night for me. Heavy convection really wrapping around the center and is transforming into a hurricane as we read/post. Can't wait to see how strong it is in the morning. I've got a special China corp learning event every morning for the next 2 weeks so(in my city) so I have to get up early and get more sleep. Nite all!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting WxGeekVA:
GAStormz washingtonian115 it's coming your way!!!>


nope, its hanging out just to my north and putting on a lightning show.
my hotel is just north of alexandria, or in it.

this lightning and thunder is keeping me up, im really tired , its midnight.

The thunder sounds so hollow though.
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1590. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


andrew?
camille?

now im out.
i think
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. The hurricane was down played in effort to keep the area booming..There efforts failed miserably. The average 24 hour wind speed exceeded 76 mph.
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The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
the District of Columbia...
eastern Arlington County in northern Virginia...
eastern city of Alexandria in northern Virginia...
central Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* until 1230 am EDT

* at 1145 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was detected near Rosslyn...
and was moving east at 10 mph. This storm is capable of producing
hail up to the size of quarters and damaging winds in excess of 60
mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Crystal City...
Reagan National Airport...
Howard University...
nationals park...
US Capitol...
downtown Washington...
Fort Totten...
gallaudet University...
Anacostia...
rfk stadium...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging wind gusts... large hail and frequent cloud
to ground lightning. Move indoors to a sturdy building and stay away
from windows.

This storm is producing frequent cloud to ground lightning. If you
can hear thunder... you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Move indoors immediately.

Lat... Lon 3872 7680 3881 7708 3883 7711 3892 7712
3895 7708 3900 7677
time... Mot... loc 0348z 277deg 8kt 3887 7706


Jrk


GAStormz washingtonian115 it's coming your way!!!

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


now im out.
i think


ok one last thing,
satellite of june 29 derecho:
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1587. hydrus
With seventeen storms, this season was slightly above average. At eleven, the number of hurricanes was also above average. In the central Pacific, one tropical storm formed. Very unusually, on August 26 there were six systems active: Ione, Olive, Kirsten, Lorraine, Joyce, and Maggie. Olive was a Central Pacific storm and had weakened to a tropical depression by this time. The other five were of at least tropical storm intensity simultaneously and remained so until 06Z Aug 27. Five storms were also active 18Z Aug 23-06Z Aug 24To list an example of how far behind we were with satellite intensity observations, just take a look at these images and you can see for yourself that they were inaccurate. I would bet if the mets reviewed this puupy, it would be reclassified as a major..:).Eastern Pacific 1974..Hurricane Kirsten
Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)

Duration August 22 %u2013 August 29
Intensity 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min), 973 mbar (hPa)

Hurricane Kirsten took an erratic path. After traveling northwest for a while, it reversed direction and backtracked to almost where it started. It then reversed direction again and underwent a Fujiwhara interaction with Hurricane Ione.Part of NOAA-3 visible range VHRR image of Hurricanes Ione (left) and Kirsten (right.) The effect of two interacting hurricanes is termed the Fujiwhara effect.
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Quoting hydrus:
What hurricane since records have been kept had the highest average 24 hour wind speed in the U.S.?


andrew?
camille?

now im out.
i think
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a little big lightning storm here in DC.
nite all
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It would be extremely hard for Daniel and hard for Emilia to get to Hawaii as anything major.
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One last image before I go .

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1582. hydrus
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I wrote a blog for Hurricane Daniel. Started the section(s) for Emilia, but ran out of time as I have to go now. Good night all and I'll have a full blog out for both systems tomorrow morning.

Daniel briefly becomes a major hurricane overnight, now on a weakening trend
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842

Good thing they are not coming at the US(mabey PT for Hawaii) or there would be many issues.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


probably, i dont think it was a tornado
On July 15th, 2010 at around 6:00pm-6:30pm my city(Berkley, MI) had 60-70mph winds which downed many trees, power lines/poles, fires,and even damaged a few houses and most people called it a tornado. Even the warning sirens went off but thats because Oakland county sounds sirens for tornadoes or severe storms with 70 mph winds. The damage was just straight line wind damage from a bow echo, so probably not.

From dtx nws: On July 15, 2010, severe thunderstorms moved through most of Southeast Michigan. There were 32 severe weather reports included a measured 71 mph wind gust near Davison and wind damage consistent with winds up to 80 mph in Flushing. Most of the reports were wind gust and associated wind damage, but there were a few isolated large hail reports.

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1578. hydrus
What hurricane since records have been kept had the highest average 24 hour wind speed in the U.S.?
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108 today at Farmville, VA. That appears to be a monthly state record high. This shows the record for July at 107 at Lincoln in 1934. I don't know if the NWS still updates these records though. I know Petersburg reached 108 in June, which would beat the 105 at St. Paul from 1970. I don't know if any of these are considered official since they are both AWOS sites. Today's reading at Farmville was certainly plausible though, with numerous sites showing 103 to 106 nearby.

Virginia monthly extremes: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0930264.html

Farmville, VA daily temps (108 at 4:35, 5:15 PM):
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFVX.html
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1576. hydrus
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Post 1534: Is this the same as that, its listed as T-storm wind damage on spc and 0 tornado reports(I know its possible tornado but this is for clarrification).

2131 UNK 3 S FREDERICKSBURG SPOTSYLVANIA VA 3826 7749 *** 2 INJ *** STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE ON FLEMING ST OFF JEFF DAVIS HWY (LWX)


probably, i dont think it was a tornado
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1574. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gordon Dunn.

Gordon Dunn (1965–1967)
Robert Simpson (1967–1973), co-creator of the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Neil Frank (1973–1987), responsible for creating strong ties between NHC and the media while director.
Bob Sheets (1987–1995)
Bob Burpee (1995–1997)
Jerry Jarrell (1998–2000)
Britt Max Mayfield (2000–2007)
Xavier William Proenza (2007)
Edward (Ed) N. Rappaport (2007–2008)
Bill Read (2008–2012)
Richard Knabb (2012-)
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Post 1534: Is this the same as that, its listed as T-storm wind damage on spc and 0 tornado reports(I know its possible tornado but this is for clarrification).

2131 UNK 3 S FREDERICKSBURG SPOTSYLVANIA VA 3826 7749 *** 2 INJ *** STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE ON FLEMING ST OFF JEFF DAVIS HWY (LWX)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
*Singing* Thunderstorms surrounding me all day but no rain.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
#1528.... That was very funny - out of a clear blue sky, too! lol

But now my blog is messed up.... :o/


ill take it down, think its just you with the problem though
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Quoting post 1565. nigel20
I think that Emilia will be close or at major hurricane status by late Monday.


Definitely reasonable since it is almost a hurricane and strengthening really quickly. I say between Mon pm and Tues am and a peak around 140-150mph seeing what Daniel could do with Emilia being in a better enviorment.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting hydrus:
Who was the first director of the NHC.?


I turn to google and then I say to self, "Um, what was the question again?" Looks back at hydrus's post...

round two: turn back to google after typing the above and then "wait, what was the question?"
*Big Sigh*

round three: turn to google after round 2, type question, hit search, top 10 results, no answer...

I GIVE UP. WHAT IS IT?
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Emilia looks to take the exact same path as Daniel but stronger and maybe a little farther south.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting hydrus:
Who was the first director of the NHC.?

Gordon Dunn.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting Post 1496:those are some extreme cold cloud tops...


Bone-chillin' Michigan cold cloud tops!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
1565. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:
Forecast for Emilia:


I think that Emilia will be close or at major hurricane status by late Monday.
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The NHC's prediction for Emilia to peak at 120 is low. Daniel reached 115 and went far higher than the pros thought. Emilia is in much more favorable conditions than Daniel and has plenty of time as they stated in their last update. Also Emilia already has 1/2 an eyewall and an eye so I think Emilia is ready to undergo some rapid intensification and will at least reach cat 4 maybe even cat 5 although that might be a little difficult to achieve. That's what I've gathered so far...
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1563. hydrus
Who was the first director of the NHC.?
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Well, I guess that's it for me... I give up on trying to get around GAstorm's video post.
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Forecast for Emilia:

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1560. hydrus
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edit 'cause we don't need 4 forecast discussions
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Daniel: compared to Emilia:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Emilia will probably peak at 145 and I want to remark that the ACE of the ENP should be a lot with these types of systems.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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