Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.0mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 3.0

Center Temp : -21.3C Cloud Region Temp : -45.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 1.08 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 10:18:36 N Lon: 102:39:00 W
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115514
What's the saying, if your not pissed, your not paying attention.
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Quoting OldLeatherneck:
Recent Temps (Past Hour) in Northern Canada Near Beaufort Sea

Within the past hour or so the following temps have been recorded in the Northwest Territories or Nunavut Province in close proximity to the Beaufort Sea.

So much for maintaining ice in that area.


TUKTOYAKTUK, NWT - 70(F)
INUVIK - 77(F)
DAWSON - 73(F)
NORMAN WELLS - 81(F)
KUGLUKTUK - 79(F)
YELLOWKNIFE - 77(F)

Link

According to that linked map, the Northwest channel is allready open if you were to stick close to the North Canadian shoreline! Similarly the North East channel is open if you also stick close to the Northern Russian shoreline. Only according to map of course. Any confirmation on this?
With those temps that you list, there is going to be some serious permafrost melting in that area!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
369 Jedkins01: ...the heat capacity of water is enormous, which is why all nuclear plants are by the ocean, there just is no better way to cool other than using large amounts of water.

Not all, many use lakes and rivers as their cooling ponds. Such nuclear-powered generating plants typically use (via excess evaporation for cooling) more water than all of their customers combined, excluding farmers if you count precipitation as part of their water usage.

As a bit of a side note, drought and heat waves have routinely had major impacts on inland nuclear power.

"Reactors in the Southeast U.S. might be forced to temporarily shut down in 2008 due to the drought which continues to dry out rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the amounts of water they need to operate. Utility officials say shutdowns probably would not result in blackouts, but they could lead to much higher electric bills for millions of Southerners. According to the Associated Press, of the nation's 104 nuclear reactors, 24 are in areas experiencing severe levels of drought."

From what I recall authorities across the south had to shut down a number of reactors during the 2007/2008 season. I know for sure Brown's Ferry and one in Georgia were shut down.

2003 Western European heat wave had France shutting down a large number of their reactors, which caused blackouts, which contributed to the cooling issues and to the number of deaths.
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soullive.live.now..http://fatmusicradio.com/wp/..fa vorite.jam.band.is.moe...soullive.is.right.up.ther e
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5042
Quoting washingtonian115:
Taz this is a troll-a-cast right here.Lol.I think we'll some storms in august.El nino will be weak any way.And we will see a Major hurricane.We do every year.You can bet on that one.




we do not see a Major hurricane evere year not in a mod or storng EL Nino year any ways all so we are at lest a weak EL nino we could have a mod or strong EL nino come AUG or SEP


1986 was a on going EL nino year and it did not have not one Major hurricane


1972 was a strong EL nino year and that year did not see any Major hurricane

Link



not sure if 1994 was a EL nino year or not but that year did not have any Major hurricane

Link





am sure there are more years that we have not have any Major hurricane for that season but am too lazy find them all have i made a point or sould i keep looking?

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115514
Logic dosent require emotion.

Plus I live in NOLA.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130495
77F in Yellowknife?

Yeah, Tax cuts for 10 more years should stop that easily.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130495
1992 was an El Nino, year not sure whether it was strengthening or weakening but it was def over the threshold.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
Recent Temps (Past Hour) in Nortern Canada Near Beaufort Sea

Within the past hour or so the following temps have been recorded in the Northwest Territories or Nunavut Province in close proximity to the Beaufort Sea.

So much for maintaining ice in that area.


TUKTOYAKTUK, NWT - 70(F)
INUVIK - 77(F)
DAWSON - 73(F)
NORMAN WELLS - 81(F)
KUGLUKTUK - 79(F)
YELLOWKNIFE - 77(F)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is up with the Fresca jokes?.Is that what everyone In hurricane alley prefer to drink?.

Spathy your welcomed.El nino was in full gear when Andrew formed and was pretty strong to.
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The wealthy can recover and help others.

Please, show us ONE example of this, er...scheme?

I 'll be draining the Burled Shrimp's...and Tater's and the corned beef Brisket that I tossed in.

Al Roker is taking notes too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130495
co2 schemes

Really, a scheme, as in Ponzi?

LOL

Thats ridiculous.

Fresca?


June co2 is in.

395.77ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for June 2012

Are you surprised?

How is the scheme seeming to be trending?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130495
Quoting Tazmanian:


no need wind shear is way too high





all so it looks likes too me the EL nino is really starting too kick in

The shear is behind the rotation about to cross over into the BOC where the shear is.... 5kts.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3282
Quoting Tazmanian:



this be come we have the MJO i think with EL Nino starting too kick in i dont think we will see marh of any thing in AUG



am forcasting 7 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 or higher
Taz this is a troll-a-cast right here.Lol.I think we'll some storms in august.El nino will be weak any way.And we will see a Major hurricane.We do every year.You can bet on that one.
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Quoting islander101010:
watching.the.n.w.carib.


no need wind shear is way too high





all so it looks likes too me the EL nino is really starting too kick in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115514
Quoting washingtonian115:
If the MJO sticks around into the beginning of August oh boy....



this be come we have the MJO i think with EL Nino starting too kick in i dont think we will see marh of any thing in AUG



am forcasting 7 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 or higher
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115514
It is absolutely coming down in buckets. Just under an inch in about 19 minutes...

Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
watching.the.n.w.carib.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5042
Daniel and TD 5-E.

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Quoting Grothar:



It was not reclassified as a Cat 5 until much later.
Grother, Just woke up from a nap..........Yes, I know Hamilton and Middletown very well....My brother lives near there. Ever been to "Jungle Jims"? Xenia has never recovered from the 74 tornado. Another failing but beautiful little city.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If the MJO sticks around into the beginning of August oh boy....
Also is it possible that the MJO could get stuck on our basin since it's the warmest on the planet right now?.
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Quoting Grothar:



Did you copy that from me? :)

No...what's up, Grothar?
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Quoting aspectre:
369 Jedkins01: ...the heat capacity of water is enormous, which is why all nuclear plants are by the ocean, there just is no better way to cool other than using large amounts of water.

Not all, many use lakes as their cooling ponds. Such nuclear-powered generating plants typically use (via excess evaporation for cooling) more water than all of their customers combined, excluding farmers if you count precipitation as part of their water usage.
What I find amazing is for every 3 units of energy produced at a nuclear plant 2 units are disharged into the environment as wasted heat......Safe, but wasted
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.
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If the MJO sticks around into the beginning of August oh boy....
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Quoting nigel20:

Andrew's eyewall looked pretty impressive on radar...many eyewall mesovortices were reported in hurricane in Andrew's eyewall. In these vortices, wind speed can be up to 10% higher than in the rest of the eyewall. via wiki



Did you copy that from me? :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop it was upgraded too cat 5 at landfall



It was not reclassified as a Cat 5 until much later.
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Evening Everybody.
It seems that Western Europe isnt the only place getting a months rain in a day. 'Now on a regular basis!'
This report linked below if from Central Russia and I supose somebody has allready posted it but here's an updated link:-

At least 134 killed in southern Russia floods disaster

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/07/07/ 225058.html

Keep saying this but it might just have something to do with increased moisture content due to warmer than usual air temps.

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Quoting allancalderini:
yeah it was a td and ts for most of its life.tell me if I am wrong but Andrew at first was thought to peak at cat 4 right?

Andrew's eyewall looked pretty impressive on radar...many eyewall mesovortices were reported in hurricane in Andrew's eyewall. In these vortices, wind speed can be up to 10% higher than in the rest of the eyewall. via wiki
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A good shot of the blob in the Caribbean and TD 5E, formerly 97E, formerly the blob off of Central America.


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369 Jedkins01: ...the heat capacity of water is enormous, which is why all nuclear plants are by the ocean, there just is no better way to cool other than using large amounts of water.

Not all, many use lakes and rivers as their cooling ponds. Such nuclear-powered generating plants typically use (via excess evaporation for cooling) more water than all of their customers combined, excluding farmers if you count precipitation as part of their water usage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
yeah it was a td and ts for most of its life.tell me if I am wrong but Andrew at first was thought to peak at cat 4 right?



nop it was upgraded too cat 5 at landfall
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115514
If anyone is interested, I've made a blog update on Hurricane Daniel and TD 5-E. Check it out.

Daniel likely reached peak intensity; new Pacific tropical depression forms
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Quoting allancalderini:
yeah it was a td and ts for most of its life.tell me if I am wrong but Andrew at first was thought to peak at cat 4 right?
I think so.And then it was re-analysed.It was orginally thought to have been a 155mph storm.
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Quoting spathy:
Does anyone know.
Was Cane Andrew El Nino> neutral year?

1995?

In other words. El Nino ended or became N at peak season.
Am I remembering that correctly?
I tried looking it up but all I found was garbage.
Spathy, two dates I will never forget, Andrew...August 23,24, 1992.....and April 3rd, 1974...............I was there for both
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Andrew as in a El nino year.Shear had affected him most of his life until that faithful trip to the Bahamas.
yeah it was a td and ts for most of its life.tell me if I am wrong but Andrew at first was thought to peak at cat 4 right?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Taz, Im well aware, the page is here: Floater 97E

Thanx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130495
Oh my!! does the people in Hawaii really thought that they will retire all the names that they submit btw this is of 2006 Several storms originating in the East Pacific have become
memorable in Hawaii because of damage, threat, etc. Hawaii State
Civil Defense has asked that the following names be retired and no
longer used. Remove the following names from the East Pacific
Tropical Cyclone name lists: Bud, Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia,
Estelle, Fabio, Fausto, Fernanda, Gil, Gilma, Guillermo, Jimena,
John, Jova and Kenneth.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting spathy:
Does anyone know.
Was Cane Andrew El Nino> neutral year?

1995?

In other words. El Nino ended or became N at peak season.
Am I remembering that correctly?
I tried looking it up but all I found was garbage.
Andrew as in a El nino year.Shear had affected him most of his life until that faithful trip to the Bahamas.
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Quoting Patrap:
97E Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop





its now TD 5E not 97E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115514
97E Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130495
BobWallace: I realize that you're just kidding, but have you realized that there's no soil underneath the Greenland ice sheet?
361 spathy: There will be plenty of exposed peat bogs that can be used to enrich the soil.

1) Digging up peat bogs releases greenhouse gases AND causes new greenhouse gases to be created.
2) Mixing peat with soil causes creation of greenhouse gases.
3) There's a reason why farmers moved en masse from NewEngland* to the OhioRiverValley (then beyond to the Mississippi, then Missouri, etc). Soil of formerly glacier-covered land is covered and shot thru&thru with LOTS of rocks, lots of BIG rocks. Such soil is not conducive to mechanized farming, and especially not to the industrial-scale farming necessary to feed the World.

* Yeah, NewEngland still has some truck farms... which are not price-competitive with grains&produce farmed in other regions. They barely make do locally due to local-preference and low transportation cost.
NewEngland-style farming would vastly increase food prices to most of the World. Unlike in the FirstWorld where preparing, advertising, packaging, transportation, and waste -- ie throwing out food cuz it ain't pretty enough or is "past the expiration date" -- make up the overwhelming majority of the cost of food, most people depend on purchases of unprocessed or minimally processed foods (eg flour instead of wheat) to fill their dietary needs.
ie Their food-cost is FAR more directly tied to farm-production cost, so they have to use a vastly larger proportion of their income to buy food when there are rises in food-prices at the wholesale level.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

I agree. I know some of you are saying that El Nino will reduce the number of named storms, but something I also realized is that if you look at the El Nino years 2002, 2006, and 2009, they managed to still produce 12, 9, and 9 storms after July 10th, respectively. So lets say that if the rest of this season follows in a similar fashion, then we could get an average of 10 additional storms and end up with a total around 14. In addition, each of those three years also managed to produce storms in the MDR (some examples: Josephine, Lili in 2002, Ernesto, Gordon, Helene, Isaac in 2006, and Bill, Fred, Ida in 2009) so we best keep an eye on the Atlantic as the season progresses.
Actually I think Isaac didn`t form in the MDR but I say we would get 14 to 16 storms in the Atlantic,and two in July.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Daniel has peaked unless something crazy happens and TD 5 is offical. I think it will strenghen more than the offical forecast to a 115mph low end cat3 imo.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

I agree. I know some of you are saying that El Nino will reduce the number of named storms, but something I also realized is that if you look at the El Nino years 2002, 2006, and 2009, they managed to still produce 12, 9, and 9 storms after July 10th, respectively. So lets say that if the rest of this season follows in a similar fashion, then we could get an average of 10 additional storms and end up with a total around 14. In addition, each of those three years also managed to produce storms in the MDR (some examples: Josephine, Lili in 2002, Ernesto, Gordon, Helene, Isaac in 2006, and Bill, Fred, Ida in 2009) so we best keep an eye on the Atlantic as the season progresses.
Yep.And let's not forget about that good 'ol A storm back in August of 92 that originated from the MDR from the cape verde islands.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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