Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
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Another Hot Sunset 2 (Nikongranny)
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Quoting PlazaRed:

You might notice on the Freeways that after a day or two of these high temps the lane, carriageway (what ever you call it?) will develop 2 distinct deep groves in it due to deformation from the weight of heavy trucks passing over it.
Wrong composition of road surface for these types of temps. Same problem on the airport runways. You need a higher temp tarmac as used in desert conditions.


In a subdivision we were developing we lost a blacktopped road during a heat wave.

Concrete trucks had to go down a fairly steep hill and then brake to make a turn at the bottom.

The blacktop broke loose some distance up the hill and started piling up at the bottom, like a folded up ribbon.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Folks,the RI forecast by SHIP at 00z for Emilia is insane.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)



*coughs up drink*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Have you read the clean up instructions for one of those new bulbs. Very unrealistic to expect people to follow them all the way thru.


Take a damp paper towel and sweep the pieces into a plastic bag.

Take the bag to a recycling center.

Keep kids and pets away while you clean up. Air out the room.


That's too hard for you?

If so, use LEDs.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting spathy:
#500
Climate Change is a global problem and will require global cooperation that has never before been seen.




No current or previous governmental or economic system has ever had to face anything of this scale. We've seen the failure and collapse of Communism, so that is not an alternative. We are also seeing that un-bridled, un-regulated Capitalism benefits the few not the many by perpetuating the myth that economic growth can continue exponentially, when faced with declining natural resources a growing population in an increasingly hostile ecosystem.

Somewhere in there is the path.
Anything other than properly regulated Capitalistic free market systems is the failure of the past.
And can be demonstrated via history.

At the beginning of this downturn President Bush uttered these famous words.
Sometimes in order to save Capitalistic economy you need to abandon Capitalism.
Thats paraphrasing.
But how wrong he was and he later said so.
We now have the worst recovery from a recession in the last 10 recessions.
No ifs ands or buts!
That is now fact.

When President Obama states we cant go back to the policies that caused this recession, he is purposefully distorting facts.

He is alluding to Capitalistic principals that have supposedly failed.
When in reality the Capitalistic economy of these United States of America have been the most successful execution of a non Socialist scheme in history.
Why?
A non socialist(add adjective) country has never been tried before in the history of man.

And if you look at the facts of history, we as An American Experiment in a free Capitalistic society, have been the most successful in helping our own and others. And we have only failed in doing so when we strayed from our foundations,our Laws,our Constitution.




Over reaching manipulative legislation is what built the bubble that has caused the latest depression,and the over reaching response has made things worse.
When President Obama states the mistakes of the past,and he doesnt want to repeat them,just realize that those mistakes are the very path he has taken us down and the very path that will continue suffering that has been the result of socialist policies of the past.


"Climate Change is a global problem and will require global cooperation that has never before been seen. "

No. Individual countries are dealing with the problem at different rates. As far as I know all countries are doing something. The US is not the leader in this effort.

"We are also seeing that un-bridled, un-regulated Capitalism benefits the few not the many by perpetuating the myth that economic growth can continue exponentially, when faced with declining natural resources a growing population in an increasingly hostile ecosystem"

True. Un-regulated captialism is not something that works for more than a few.

Future growth can continue. As long as we take a sustainable route. Quit fossil fuels and oil as feedstock.

"A non socialist(add adjective) country has never been tried before in the history of man."

Traditional monarchies were totally non-socialist. Most of our ancestors were slaves or serfs.

"Over reaching manipulative legislation is what built the bubble that has caused the latest depression"

That is 100% false. The bubble was not created by overreaching legislation. It was caused by greedy people not being checked by adequate regulation.

"When President Obama states the mistakes of the past,and he doesnt want to repeat them,just realize that those mistakes are the very path he has taken us down and the very path that will continue suffering that has been the result of socialist policies of the past."

That is also 100% false.

When President Obama states that he does no want to repeat the mistakes of the past he is talking about letting banks get "too big to fail", letting bankers play investment games with depositor money.

We did not fall into a deep recession because we provide a bit of food for hungry people or some help getting a roof over their heads. The recession was caused by letting incredibly wealthy and greedy people run wild.




Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Really wished the Atlantic looked something like this right now, storms rolling through the Atlantic with no harm to land.

Seems to me the EPAC has had less storms but far more powerful ones than the Atlantic has been having, and far more often.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Folks,the RI forecast by SHIP at 00z for Emilia is insane.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63%is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)




63% for 45 mph increase? wow!

This reminds me of Rick back in 2009
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It is so hot that the heat made a plane sink 4 inches into the tarmac.
Location: Washington DC.

You might notice on the Freeways that after a day or two of these high temps the lane, carriageway (what ever you call it?) will develop 2 distinct deep groves in it due to deformation from the weight of heavy trucks passing over it.
Wrong composition of road surface for these types of temps. Same problem on the airport runways. You need a higher temp tarmac as used in desert conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
600. yoboi
Quoting spathy:
568
are you trying to be mittens VP????

Who is mittens?
Mitt Romney?
Um no!
Any answers to my questions?
Of course not just denial blustering!
An actual conversation about ideas is verboten .
That is unless you are on the Reich side.

Can any of you discuss the ideas that you oppose or do you just know how to ridicule ad distract?

You know if you actually looked at my words you would realise I want the same results as you.
But no you prefer to divide and ridicule while stating the same towards others.

Conversation and results is a two way street.
I have tried to communicate.
Have you reciprocated?


it's better to look both ways before you cross the street, because if you only look in one direction ya might get runover......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Folks,the RI forecast by SHIP at 00z for Emilia is insane.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Daniel was probably a 100 mph/972 millibar Category 2 at 5PM EDT and the NHC had to correct themselves.



oh ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
EP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU

100 mph
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Daniel has become a Category 2.

EP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, D,
i knew he will strength to cat 2.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4306
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Daniel going under RI ??? i noteed the mb drop from 977mb from last update too 969mb this update

No. Daniel was probably a 100 mph/972 millibar Category 2 at 5PM EDT and the NHC had to correct themselves.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Daniel has become a Category 2.

EP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, D,



Daniel going under RI ??? i noteed the mb drop from 977mb from last update too 969mb this update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting BobWallace:


How silly are you willing to go?

There's very little mercury in a CFL. If you've got kids/pets running wild in your house get LEDs or tie your lamps down.




Have you read the clean up instructions for one of those new bulbs. Very unrealistic to expect people to follow them all the way thru.
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588. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


How silly are you willing to go?

There's very little mercury in a CFL. If you've got kids/pets running wild in your house get LEDs or tie your lamps down.





what kind of knot ya suggest tying the lamps down with???
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587. yoboi
Quoting redwagon:

I was taught early that civility evaporates when you start discussing sex, politics and religion. Especially all three at once.


did ya ever hear about the politician that went to church and confessed about having sex with.....yeah all 3 don't go together...
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Daniel has become a Category 2.

EP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, D,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
It is so hot that the heat made a plane sink 4 inches into the tarmac.
Location: Washington DC.
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EP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting spathy:


A good thought nice start.
But what do you think about Extremely toxic Mercury as your child steps on a broken light-bulb?
Does that trump the heat problem?


How silly are you willing to go?

There's very little mercury in a CFL. If you've got kids/pets running wild in your house get LEDs or tie your lamps down.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well there you have it, Tropical Storm Emilia.




that sure did not take long
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Tropical Storm Emilia

EP, 05, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1025W, 35, 1003, TS
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Quoting Jedkins01:


If it's a waste of time then why do come back again to argue with them?

Besides, to disagree is fine, but I really don't think he his a marxist, and even if he was, be at peace with all men as much as possible.

I was taught early that civility evaporates when you start discussing sex, politics and religion. Especially all three at once.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
EP, 05, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1025W, 35, 1003, TS

Well there you have it, Tropical Storm Emilia.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Is the CMC still showing an atlantic storm?
Or is it back to normal now
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577. yoboi
Quoting PlazaRed:
Here's a nice simple one, for those of us not dying of thirst or drowning in floods at the moment:-

TUKTOYAKTUK, NWT - 70(F)
INUVIK - 77(F)
DAWSON - 73(F)
NORMAN WELLS - 81(F)
KUGLUKTUK - 79(F)
YELLOWKNIFE - 77(F)

Thinking about this!
Most of us have a freezer, in it we have veg and meats etc.
If there is a long power cut the stuff thaws out, becomes useless and inedible and eventually starts to decompose at a rate depending on the ambient background temps, first law of thermodynamics etc.
That permafrost which nobody much seems to either know about or care about is the planets freezer!
Increasing the background temps for a sustained amount of time is equivalent to the big mother power cut. Made worse if its got running water over it.
Next phase is the decomposition and methane release stage!
This is the tipping point.Funds cant bale us out of this one.




yeah that permafrost is some bad stuff i think the FDA is coming out with a shot for that...
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Does anyone have the current tornado count so far this year?



About 25 percent of normal so far.
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EP, 05, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1025W, 35, 1003, TS

TS EMILIA
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Quoting ij24:
I wonder how people in the Midwest survive the heat wave. In my place the weather is tropical but it doesn't get that hot as if it can dry out liquids and even cheap ink printer cartridges.
It was really hot at times in metro Detroit and cooling centers did open which doesn't happen often. I did not hear of any heat related deaths or fires so we did pretty well in my neck of the woods. We did break records and almost hit our all time redord high of 105F, missed by 3 degrees.
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I would expected both numbers to stay at 5.0 or go up to 5.5, not one go down. Huh.

08/0000 UTC 14.8N 120.7W T4.5/5.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Waste of time arguing with the marxists Spathy.


If it's a waste of time then why do come back again to argue with them?

Besides, to disagree is fine, but I really don't think he his a marxist, and even if he was, be at peace with all men as much as possible.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7438
Here's a nice simple one, for those of us not dying of thirst or drowning in floods at the moment:-

TUKTOYAKTUK, NWT - 70(F)
INUVIK - 77(F)
DAWSON - 73(F)
NORMAN WELLS - 81(F)
KUGLUKTUK - 79(F)
YELLOWKNIFE - 77(F)

Thinking about this!
Most of us have a freezer, in it we have veg and meats etc.
If there is a long power cut the stuff thaws out, becomes useless and inedible and eventually starts to decompose at a rate depending on the ambient background temps, first law of thermodynamics etc.
That permafrost which nobody much seems to either know about or care about is the planets freezer!
Increasing the background temps for a sustained amount of time is equivalent to the big mother power cut. Made worse if its got running water over it.
Next phase is the decomposition and methane release stage!
This is the tipping point.Funds cant bale us out of this one.
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Does anyone have the current tornado count so far this year?
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568. yoboi
Quoting spathy:


If there is no change in path there can only be.. adapt.
If the path we are on wastes money than there is no hope.
WE are doomed to squallier and devastation.
I again ask.
How do you wish to pay for either scenario?

Your utopian dream world obviously hasent a clue..
I would be happy to loan you some money but I am broke. Good luck with your fantasy results!



are you trying to be mittens VP????
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Cant wait for tomorrow:
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07/2345 UTC 10.4N 102.5W T2.0/2.0 05E -- East Pacific
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562. ij24
I wonder how people in the Midwest survive the heat wave. In my place the weather is tropical but it doesn't get that hot as if it can dry out liquids and even cheap ink printer cartridges.
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Quoting captainmark:
Instead of fighting back and forth over each other's
political opinions. How about each of you post a
sugestion of what can be done on a local level to
help a global problem. For example;

1. please do not cut down every tall tree on your
property just because a storm may blow it down
on your house.
2. use porous materials for your driveway instead
of concrete.

Who knows, maybe we all can learn something other
than that you cannot change another person's
political opinion.
oh. I'm bored. So I'm game.

1) Instead of using leaf blowers and hosing down your sidewalk because a) there's some debris and b) you're lazy why not pay/service swap a local kid / jobless adult to rake/sweep your lawn and walkways?

2) (this one would be for some of the males in my family) Stop the irrational love affair with incandescent light bulbs. Modern testing shows that these days compact fluorescent and LED lighting is as bright or even brighter and need to be replaced much less often. They both have the kelvin temps appropriate for nearly all household use (cool, neutral, warm etc). Frankly I do not get it. Incandescent lighting is absurdly inefficient. That heat it gives off? Wasted energy (ie. wasted money) plus it warms up the air and tend to be wonderful fire/burn hazards, especially around kids.
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
Quoting Civicane49:


Correct.


And the measurement is about 5 hours old, so Daniel very well could be stronger now that what the estimate indicated
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Good evening on a 105F day in Washington DC
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557. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It has been shown via more than one study that the cost of inaction is greater than the cost of action. The "lets just put money into preparedness" does not take into account the costs for other places around the globe that do not have the resources to adapt. It doesn't take into account the countries that will have to relocate due to rising seas. It does not take into account the uncertainty surrounding possible large-scale positive feedbacks that may occur beyond 2100 as the increased heat energy continues to melt land ice.

"We'll just adapt" is generally a cop-out solution, one that enables those profiting off of our negative environmental impacts to continue profiting.


like the condition of the levee's pre katrina???
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.