Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
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Another Hot Sunset 2 (Nikongranny)
Another Hot Sunset 2

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


MJO is peeking into the NW Caribbean. Could see some action in a week or so out in the C-ATL. Not that there will be a MJO pulse about but, supposed to be neutral from the looks of things. Meaning no sinking anomalies nor rising anomalies.



Hey, PP. You're getting pretty good at this. MJOs and everything. Just don't get too technical with us by talking about baroclinic inversions. I don't think I could take it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Call me crazy for going 35 mph above the NHC's forecast for Emilia. New blog. ;)

Daniel further strengthens into a Cat 2; Emilia forms, expected to become a hurricane
Yes, score!
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One last thing Daniel looking stronger agian.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2012 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 14:50:59 N Lon : 121:08:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 956.6mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +2.7C Cloud Region Temp : -62.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.6 degrees

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Quoting Grothar:



Not much out there. Do you think we will nail the next one?


We will have our time in mid to late July :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15706
Call me crazy for going 35 mph above the NHC's forecast for Emilia. New blog. ;)

Daniel further strengthens into a Cat 2; Emilia forms, expected to become a hurricane
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Getting a little antsy trying to find something that maybe worth tracking over on the Atlantic side.



Not much out there. Do you think we will nail the next one?


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Quoting PedleyCA:


Sup, Nigel, Hows your weather, was 90 here, so not like back East.

Hey Pedley...today was a very dry and windy day...nice beach weather i would think.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
The 0Z NAM is interesting in the fact it developes a closed low with this tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean and then moves it NNE to the west coast of FL. It will be interesting to see if other models jump on board.


MJO is peeking into the NW Caribbean. Could see some action in a week or so out in the C-ATL. Not that there will be a MJO pulse about but, supposed to be neutral from the looks of things. Meaning no sinking anomalies nor rising anomalies.

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img src="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-t c/2012_04E/webManager/gifsBy12hr_05.gif

Eyewall Issues
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Daniel
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!



Sup, Nigel, Hows your weather, was 90 here, so not like back East.
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30,000+ people still without power in SE MI from Wed night/Thru mornings storms. They won't get power fully restored until sometime on Monday, luckly the heat/storms are over for a little while. Good night!
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Good evening everyone!

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This is what happens when the Atlantic is dead...people start talking about politics.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15706
Everyone have a great evening. Sorry, but I hate politics and arguements. But we had a half inch of rain today from a good thunderstorm, which I love when I'm home to really enjoy them, so it was a good day. :)
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739. yoboi
Quoting spathy:


I agree.
Gosh I hope I have not called someone names.
I have tried not to but I my fervor I have been known to do so.
I am truly sorry if I have stooped to that level here this fine evening.
I only wish to evoke thought and conversation.
Grothar and others you have furthered that desire.
Thank you for your responses.
I only wish that on this serious note I could think of something funny to end the evening.
But its just late and I am saying good night and thanks for the Bouncing board.
See ya on the sunny flip side.
Later.



it's cool turn ya mercury filled computer off now....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1962




Daniel looks to have a little better eye and Emilia looks on track to becoming another hurricane.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We still have Don Rickles. ;-)


...alway's a wise guy in front.


Sit down sir, your blocking the Lady's view of my act.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125493
735. yoboi
it don't matter if ya a right winger, left winger or just a swinger ya need clean water to survive....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1962
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Your wisdom no longer surprises me, but it does still amaze me. You will always remain, "The Teacher". ..... Your days spent went Aristotle and Socrates were not wasted. ;-)


They were kind of boring. They would just sit there thinking all the time. I told them to at least write their thoughts down. Well, you know the story. They gave it to me and I said, "It's all Greek to me."
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732. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
We have serious problems and we need serious people to solve them.

Well Dick Clark, Andy Griffith and George Carlin are
gone.


We're so screwed.



best thing to do is invest in fresh water while we have it. with out fresh clean water were all done....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1962
Quoting spathy:
#701 Grothar: You are one of the first people I met on the blog.
And you are still here blogging?
You my friend are a hearty soul! LOL
Thanks for your well thought out post.

It does make me think.
Thats what blogging should do.
Make ya thimpk!


I try not to think too much anymore. That was the biggest problems Socrates and I had. I just like to post colorful weather maps and relax.
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We have serious problems and we need serious people to solve them.

Well Dick Clark, Andy Griffith and George Carlin are
gone.


We're so screwed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125493
Isolated estimated rainfall amounts of 3-4" in Tx.Link
Still some rain in central Tx.
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Quoting spathy:


Thanks Groth.
Those are wise words.
I do try that every time something stirs a response in me.

And every time I am reminded of those that escape tyranny abroad to fight and make their way to The United States of America.
And when I listen to what they have to say,they are telling me not to allow the oppression they worked so hard to escape.
They are telling me they are so saddened that the Country they risked their life to get to(legally) is now falling under the spell of dictate they left behind!

They thought they had found freedom.
Yet they see the seeds of dependence and the cruel slow creep of Gov servitude they risked their lives and fortunes to escape.

That is sad, yet they work like me as hard and determined to not allow such a fate.

I only wish all could see this through the eyes of the truly suppressed and the truly determined.
Adversity and strife wipes many windows clean to see the truth. The blind and dependent only see the next free wind to blow their way.

Such a sad wind we are breathing now! Intoxicating as it may be!
It will be the death of us and a civil society.



Dickens
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.........

We have to remember we have faced worst times before in this country, much worse. Not everyone in government is out to get us. The only thing that will be a detriment is when we start turning on each other. In the example when someone who holds a dissenting opinion is called names.

The argument used by some is those talking about democracy and freedom, but only want one party in charge. Others want three parties. In the past, the two party system worked quite well with different levels meeting in the middle.

We have serious problems and we need serious people to solve them.
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All fluorescent bulbs contain some gaseous mercury including the straight variety. Mercury and mercuric compounds are poisonous, most environmental mercury is from coal-burning power plants and industrial boilers.

The electricity is more toxic than the light-bulbs.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Getting a little antsy trying to find something that maybe worth tracking over on the Atlantic side.
I know right.The GFS hints at something off of Africa.But the MJO will pay a visit to us by the mid-end part of the month.We could get something off of Africa or the caribbean.Seems it stays into August one of the most active parts of hurricane season...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15706
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Might I remind everyone here that when I first joined a few weeks ago, I came here to learn about the weather, not everybody's political leanings.

Rule #2: Stay on topic.

There is plenty for us to discuss with two named entities in the EPAC and an apparent third swirl coming behind it.

Now, back to what we all came here for.


Weather is the short term variations in climate.

If you don't understand the climate and how it works then weather will continue to be a mystery.

(How come we never see "get back to the weather" when people are talking about what they are going to have for lunch, their dating problems, that sort of stuff?)

(Actually, I'm pretty sure I know the answer.... ;o)
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Getting a little antsy trying to find something that maybe worth tracking over on the Atlantic side.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



There you go again....
Class-warfare, Socailism at best Marxism at worst.
You know the problem with socialism is that pretty sonn you run out of other peoples money.


I love it when republicans automatically label any form of wealth redistribution as socialism. Worst part is most of the people complaining would actually benefit from it since Democrats favor the middle to lower classes. But no, blind middle class republicans see any form of tax raises for anyone as some sort of socialist scheme that must be destroyed. To them it's all about not trusting the government and not letting the government expand (unless it's for defense) or tell us what to do.
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720. etxwx
Dr. Masters and WU get a brief mention in this piece from The Christian Science Monitor:

Heat wave 2012 culprit? That pesky Atlantic oscillation
Excerpt:
Why is it so hot? Large swaths of the country are covered by a massive heat dome described by Wunderground.com meteorologist Jeff Masters as “one of the greatest in recorded history.” A heat dome is basically a lump of high-level, slow-moving high pressure air that blocks cooling winds, leaving mammals inside the dome sweltering in very hot temperatures, medium to high humidity, and relatively still air.

The domes are formed as air moves across the high plateaus of the desert Southwest, where they’re fed by baking temperatures, and then slide eastward on the jet stream. When trees, lakes, and rivers begin to predominate as the dome moves across the Mississippi River, moisture evaporates into humidity, helping to create smog in cities and driving up the “feel” of the heat. On Saturday, likely the peak of the current heat wave, that “feel” was expected to rise to a blistering 112 in Washington.

So why the giant heat dome all of a sudden?

Some have pointed to urban heat island effects and suspected warming from man-made greenhouse gases as playing a role in Heat wave 2012. But one certain culprit, experts say, is the same atmospheric effect that sparked a lot of the big snow storms across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast in recent years: The North Atlantic Oscillation.

The massive oscillation helps set weather in motion, and its movement can have direct, long-term effects on specific regions. This year, the oscillation is moving particularly slowly, meaning that it’s not letting through the hot air coming off the North American shelf, causing that air, in essence, to back up across the country, pushing hotter temperatures northward.


Complete article here
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
The 0Z NAM is interesting in the fact it developes a closed low with this tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean and then moves it NNE to the west coast of FL. It will be interesting to see if other models jump on board.
The Euro shows a votex with it.
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Deleted
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Quoting yoboi:
did love bugs come to the USA from Africa by a cape verde storm???


I believe they migrated or were brought in from Central America.
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The 0Z NAM is interesting in the fact it developes a closed low with this tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean and then moves it NNE to the west coast of FL. It will be interesting to see if other models jump on board.
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714. yoboi
did love bugs come to the USA from Africa by a cape verde storm???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1962
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Might I remind everyone here that when I first joined a few weeks ago, I came here to learn about the weather, not everybody's political leanings.

Rule #2: Stay on topic.

There is plenty for us to discuss with two named entities in the EPAC and an apparent third swirl coming behind it.

Now, back to what we all came here for.


The rules also state that we can discuss the subject of the current blog, ie climate change. Sounds to me like we are staying on subject.

Spathy - how people treat you is their karma, how you react to them is yours. I admire your passion.



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Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS
TIME...THE BANDING STRUCTURE ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES
WAS IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IN THIS
ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING
APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP EMILIA FROM INTENSIFYING
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR PERHAPS EARLIER...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INCREASED FROM A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY TO A 73 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE
CENTER...WHICH IS COMMONLY AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION AT A
FASTER PACE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE GOOD NEWS FOR
MEXICO IS THAT THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STEERING
FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
GOOD CLIP WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. SINCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...EMILIA WILL
PROBABLY DECREASE SOME IN FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED
STEERING FLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT VERY TIGHT...BUT STILL ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE EMILIA WESTWARD OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 10.7N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 11.3N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 12.8N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INCREASED FROM A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY TO A 73 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE
CENTER...WHICH IS COMMONLY AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION AT A
FASTER PACE.


interesting
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Quoting yoboi:
parts of texas getting much needed rain....
All my Ex'es live in Texas...Lol Texas is getting rin but we're entering phase number two on our drought.I really want a T.C to run up the coast and bring some much needed rain.I'm not wishing death or destruction on anybody.Yeah it's quite unfair that some people have to pay the price though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15706
5 day track for Emilia


5 day track for Daniel
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Quoting spathy:


A good thought nice start.
But what do you think about Extremely toxic Mercury as your child steps on a broken light-bulb?
Does that trump the heat problem?
It's already been said by other posters but no one is forcing anyone to use mercury bulbs at all and especially not in places that they would not be appropriate to use. So don't worry, the barefoot pregnant strawwoman and children will be safe.

Hysteria doesn't change the fact that there are many applications to which they are better suited for compared to inefficient incandescents.

We can't eliminate all chemicals from our lives. Just like there are ways to responsibly use other potentially toxic chemicals that form our world such as in lubricants, sealants, preservatives, batteries, fabrics, plastics, fertilizers, paints etc etc, "mercury bulbs" have their place. Production and disposal is were regulation AND economics come into play.
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Quoting yoboi:
parts of texas getting much needed rain....

We are?

Between the new stuff in the EPAC, NWCAR and The Walking Dead, I've forgotten to look in my own backyard! thanks :)
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707. yoboi
parts of texas getting much needed rain....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1962

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.