Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
Electric Night
Another Hot Sunset 2 (Nikongranny)
Another Hot Sunset 2

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New Orleans has been hit with some nice thundershowers the past couple of days. The rain was much needed. It's already clouding up today.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Id say a 1012 millibar low in the BOC
Things can spin up fast in that area if conditions allow it.
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902. wxmod
Full speed meltdown. 2 months to go.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh man looks like almost nothing will be coming to my area.
You actually might get some. Long range has D.C. getting wet.
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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 8 2012 - 12Z TUE JUL 10 2012

...A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE EASTERN
U.S...

...INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...

THE RELENTLESS AND IMPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE EVENT OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE EAST COAST STATES IS FORECAST TO BREAK BY
MONDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. A COLD
FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO BRING BADLY NEEDED RELIEF TO THE STIFLING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED 100+
DEGREE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF SAID FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY.

OUT WEST, A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW, A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT AND LIMIT WILDFIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

ELSEWHERE, MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THIS REGION WILL NOT SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOSE
WHO ARE UNDER ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

FORECASTER HAMRICK
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that on day 6 and 7???



Id say a 1012 millibar low in the BOC
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morning

been raining from the southwest for a while.
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Quoting hydrus:
Moisture gradually increases over the next 4 days for a large part of the southern U.S.
Oh man looks like almost nothing will be coming to my area.
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Moisture gradually increases over the next 4 days for a large part of the southern U.S.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that on day 6 and 7???


Marco Part 2
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS never predicted anything off the coast of Africa.
Someone posted a model run of it hinting at possible development.Now when mid-late July comes that won't be to hard to believe since the MJO will be in that neck of the woods.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that on day 6 and 7???



Some of that WGOM blobbage the GFS is showing? They removed it from this mornings graphics. Who knows it may be back.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that on day 6 and 7???



A weak Low in the BOC?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5435
What is that on day 6 and 7???

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Does the GFS still continue to predict something off of Africa.


Looks like they start to then lose it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Does the GFS still continue to predict something off of Africa.

The GFS never predicted anything off the coast of Africa.
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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 90 KT...AND
THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. SINCE DANIEL WILL BE
TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...275/12.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.1N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.3N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.6N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 15.9N 131.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.0N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM
HURRICANE DANIEL. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH
SOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN
ON MICROWAVE DATA.

ASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW
FROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. WEAKENING SHOULD START IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS THE
BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL
TRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5435
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Quoting LargoFl:
wonder when our next tropical something happens on the Atlantic side, dont look like anything promising out there right now huh


Yeah looks pretty quiet on the models still. Had to look real real hard for anything. The GFS starts to spin up some blobs. Later in the run it seems to run them into land in the western gom before anything gets going. That's about it. NAM still making a blob of the TW?



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Just a normal July there won't be anything untill late July or early August IMO.
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Does the GFS still continue to predict something off of Africa.
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Good wave that will likely be ripped apart by SAL.
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Good Day to All From America's Left Coast
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NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC Jul 08 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
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Lol. It just started pouring here. Then it stopped. Looks like they're coming at us from the SW today.

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The weather is about to get very strange...Again.
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Quoting etxwx:
Good morning all. We're getting some nice showers here in East Texas this morning - about a half an inch so far. Our second cut hay is almost ready so this will give it the final boost it needs.
Hope everyone stays cool, dry, or wet as needed today...staying warm seems to be covered.


I'm glad you're getting some rain. :)
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I see Daniel continued to strengthen last night and became a major hurricane. That's very impressive and surprising considering the hurricane is passing over 25 °C waters. I can only assume that weakening will begin soon, but this storm has definitely defied the forecasts, that's for sure.

Probably down to 110 mph now.

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Good morning all. I am still not getting any rain. But I'm not hurting for it. Glad it's around though. Looks like there should be a cool down in the east if the HPC is mentioning bringing temps back UP to normal. :)

FARTHER EWD... BY MID-LATE PERIOD THE
BERMUDA HIGH/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WWD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST... HELPING TO FILL THE TROF INITIALLY OVER ERN NOAM AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE REMAINING E-CNTRL CONUS WEAKNESS ALOFT TOWARD
THE PLAINS.

MEANWHILE A SLOWLY WEAKENING
STNRY FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE MID ATLC INTO SRN PLAINS SHOULD ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY MDT-HVY RNFL FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES AS TO THE EXTENT THAT MSTR
WILL RETURN NWD OVER THE ERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND... THOUGH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST SHOULD
RAISE HIGH TEMPS BACK TO AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS BY THAT TIME.

ROTH/RAUSCH

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872. etxwx
Good morning all. We're getting some nice showers here in East Texas this morning - about a half an inch so far. Our second cut hay is almost ready so this will give it the final boost it needs.
Hope everyone stays cool, dry, or wet as needed today...staying warm seems to be covered.
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More of the same.
.

.
.
More nothing.
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Nothin' out there but the zombies.
.

.
.
nothin' plus nothin'
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According to the CMC, it supposed to start raining from Tuesday, July 10 and wont stop due to the run ending Wednesday July 18th..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16578
Quoting LargoFl: (865)
great quote there and true
I should go one more and quote our local Melbourne NWS forecaster in today's AFD:

WED-SAT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AREA WIDE. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT...ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

Actually Normal...Yeah I've forgotten what normal is...this year we really haven't had a normal rainy season out on the space coast, seems like it has either been heavy rain from synoptic-scale forcing or searing sun and heat. I haven't had any rain here since the rains associated with TS Debby, although one strong storm skirted just to the west held off by the seabreeze a few days ago. Just got in from hand-watering the backyard with almost the last of the saved-rainwater, and it was like I watered myself too, I was soaking. Hope nature has been a little kinder down south.
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wonder when our next tropical something happens on the Atlantic side, dont look like anything promising out there right now huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 49050
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 49050
Quoting guygee:
Words written yesterday by a midwest corn farmer over on agweb:
"When people start talking about a "break from the heat" when it goes down into the high 80's and low to mid 90's...you know things aren't normal."
great quote there and true
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 49050
864. wxmod
Smoke from Russia fires, right, and arctic ice melting, left. MODIS satellite photo today.
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Quoting guygee:
Words written yesterday by a midwest corn farmer over on agweb:
"When people start talking about a "break from the heat" when it goes down into the high 80's and low to mid 90's...you know things aren't normal."


yep, were getting a break, it will only be 92 feels like 97!!!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
Quoting georgia325:

Good for us though! I think they'd been getting some good afternoon thunderstorms in central GA the past few days though. In the afternoons when I check radar there have been major wide spread blow ups south of ATL through Macon and south


they were ok in C GA, im glad N GA is getting rain though, my garden is dying...

The problem is that C GA needs about 5 in widespread over the whole area, not just scattered, to really have a drought improvement.
They havent had it.
Atlanta need 15in to exit the long term drought, they need closer to 20in.

But im in N GA so
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
Words written yesterday by a midwest corn farmer over on agweb:
"When people start talking about a "break from the heat" when it goes down into the high 80's and low to mid 90's...you know things aren't normal."
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 49050
.........................sun is strong today, wonderful Beach day ahead,only 30% chance of rain and thats mostly inland
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 49050
Quoting ncstorm:

A lot of rain coming for the south


thurs and friday our rain chances go up to 60%, which is ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 49050
The SHIP's RI forecast at 12z continues to be very high.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 48% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

Link
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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