Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1205. Patrap
Summer

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Northern states will be feeling the heat big time soon...



Thankfully some relief in the South.
And it returns back to my area...

Uh oh it starting to get dark outside.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
You see that gap in the storms? Yep, that's going right over where I live....



Mixed-layer CAPE vc IAD is near 6000J/kg...better go to ground!
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1202. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1201. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
Northern states will be feeling the heat big time soon...



Thankfully some relief in the South.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7623
1199. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probability for rapid intensification in association with Emilia is quite impressive.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

We'll probably have an intensifying category 1 hurricane by this evening.




What this piddly little thing. Won't go higher than a Cat 4! Look closely at the estimated wind speed.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
You see that gap in the storms? Yep, that's going right over where I live....

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Quoting Grothar:


You mean this, that I have been posting for 2 days? It doesn't look that impressive to me. The season is a bust! :):)

Lol.Don't think nothing will come out of the current waves over Africa.
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1196. nigel20
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probability for rapid intensification in association with Emilia is quite impressive.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

We'll probably have an intensifying category 1 hurricane by this evening.


Agreed.
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1195. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFS is also showing something coming off of Africa..model agreement?.Could Ernesto be our first cape verde storm of the year?.


You mean this, that I have been posting for 2 days? It doesn't look that impressive to me. The season is a bust! :):)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
Quoting washingtonian115:
But they still show something possible coming from Africa.
I say in 2-3 weeks time our attention should shift to that part of the world as the High begins to break down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probability for rapid intensification in association with Emilia is quite impressive.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

We'll probably have an intensifying category 1 hurricane by this evening.


It was at 90% for 25-kt RI, 73% for 30-kt RI, and 63% for 35-40 kt RI yesterday. Highest probabilities I've ever seen.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Probability for rapid intensification in association with Emilia is quite impressive.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

We'll probably have an intensifying category 1 hurricane by this evening.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting allancalderini:
Is the NHC sure this is a cat 2 because I see it as a cat 3 instead.
if t number is 6.0 or higher its a three we made it to 5.5 high end 2
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wash, the GFS has a strong wave but has it coming off at the 252 hour mark and dosent develop it but it does develop the next wave while the Euro has it at 240 hour..since the euro only runs out to 240, Im not sure how it progresses after it enters the water..
But they still show something possible coming from Africa.

GTcooliebai it also shows a storm in the eastern pacific crossing over into central america and possibly aiding in development in the caribbean.The MJO will be here when that is suppose to happen.
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1189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
LinkGeorge Will On Climate Change: It's Just 'Summer ... Get Over It'

George Will discussed the latest heat waves plaguing the nation on ABC's 'This Week'. His explanation for the extreme weather? "Summer."

"How do we explain the heat? One word: summer," he said on Sunday. "I grew up in central Illinois in a house without air conditioning. What is so unusual about this?"

This week's weather has resulted in at least 35 deaths. In some parts of the country, the temperature hit triple digits more than once.

The New Republic's Noam Scheiber points out 10 hottest recorded years have all occurred in the past decade or two.

According to a recent study, a great percentage of people say they believe in climate change after recent extreme weather events like the heat waves and Colorado wildfires.

Will is, apparently, not one of those people.

"Come the winter, there will be a cold snap, lots of snow, and the same guys, like E.J. [Dionne, a Washington post columnist], will start lecturing us," he said. "There's a difference between the weather and the climate. I agree with that. We're having some hot weather. Get over it."

Last week, a climate expert told the Associated Press of the recent weather that "this is what global warming looks like."


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GFS long range 384 hrs. out:

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1187. Patrap
Hurricane 04E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2012 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:06:18 N Lon : 124:34:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.9mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.3 4.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -10.6C Cloud Region Temp : -44.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.4 degrees



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1186. Patrap
Quoting allancalderini:
Is the NHC sure this is a cat 2 because I see it as a cat 3 instead.


And you base your obs on what?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful.

Is the NHC sure this is a cat 2 because I see it as a cat 3 instead.
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1184. ncstorm
Wash, the GFS has a strong wave but has it coming off at the 252 hour mark and dosent develop it but it does develop the next wave while the Euro has it at 240 hour..since the euro only runs out to 240, Im not sure how it progresses after it enters the water..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emilia up to 65mph for the 2p.m PST advisory.

EP, 05, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1068W, 55, 997, TS



unless the nhc gos a little higher
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114753
Quoting goosegirl1:


It's definitely thundering, but no storm yet. When it hits this soup I expect a big reaction:-)
This pattern is getting old though.Big heat and Big storms.I want my normal thunder storms back.These are like super thunder storms.Miniture hurricanes if ya will.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful.



The question is will it turn annular.
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Quoting BobWallace:


I used to regard Will as a smart guy. I used to read his work because it gave me a different way to look at issues. Will was conservative but willing to put facts first and politics second.

He's turned into a hack....


While I often respected Will's writing ability, I have long since begun to doubt his credility on any number of topics. However, because he's a Chicago Cubs fan, I've always cut him some slack.

However, this year the Cubs are deteriorating faster than the Climate!!
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
Emilia up to 65mph for the 2p.m PST advisory.

EP, 05, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1068W, 55, 997, TS
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Once the storms hit the air mass expect some very strong winds and hail.Seems more tree branches will snap off of the trees outside to add to the collection.


It's definitely thundering, but no storm yet. When it hits this soup I expect a big reaction:-)
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Looks like Daniel is showing his %#$ to us.
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1176. nigel20
Quoting WxGeekVA:

Daniel looks fairly impressive at the moment.
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Beautiful.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting goosegirl1:


I had to like that because it is impressive, but all the same I feel bad for you guys in the city. Unfortunately, we have had a three day streak of the same. Fortunately, there's thunder in the air, and the storms are the way to DC to help with the drought.
Once the storms hit the air mass expect some very strong winds and hail.Seems more tree branches will snap off of the trees outside to add to the collection.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


I used to regard Will as a smart guy. I used to read his work because it gave me a different way to look at issues. Will was conservative but willing to put facts first and politics second.

He's turned into a hack....


Ultimately his credibility will suffer more and more, as will many. Until the first Palm tree takes root in Nova Scotia they will deny the undeniable. Sounds like he needs a fresca...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C TIES 4 DAY STREAK OF 100 DEGREE TEMPS BREAKS RECORD FOR THE DATE.


At 11:58 A.M at Reagan National air port recorded a temperature of 100 degrees tying the record from 1993.At 1:07 P.M the air port recorded a temperature of 101 breaking the record though it is unofficial if it held for three minutes.


I had to like that because it is impressive, but all the same I feel bad for you guys in the city. Unfortunately, we have had a three day streak of the same. Fortunately, there's thunder in the air, and the storms are the way to DC to help with the drought.
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The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
AOI NEAR TEXAS/ AOI OVER THE YUCATAN
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/
http://www.thedwu.com/

Member Since: June 6, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 94
Quoting ncstorm:
I cant post the images but can someone post the 144 frame with a weak low at the panhandle and the last frame showing a STRONG wave coming off of africa..looks like things maybe picking up again in the atlantic..and please remember I said vorticitys in my original comment..you guys take things and run with it..its something to discuss which is about weather..






GFS is also showing something coming off of Africa..model agreement?.Could Ernesto be our first cape verde storm of the year?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
D.C TIES 4 DAY STREAK OF 100 DEGREE TEMPS BREAKS RECORD FOR THE DATE.


At 11:58 A.M at Reagan National air port recorded a temperature of 100 degrees tying the record from 1993.At 1:07 P.M the air port recorded a temperature of 101 breaking the record though it is unofficial if it held for three minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
LinkGeorge Will On Climate Change: It's Just 'Summer ... Get Over It'

George Will discussed the latest heat waves plaguing the nation on ABC's 'This Week'. His explanation for the extreme weather? "Summer."

"How do we explain the heat? One word: summer," he said on Sunday. "I grew up in central Illinois in a house without air conditioning. What is so unusual about this?"

This week's weather has resulted in at least 35 deaths. In some parts of the country, the temperature hit triple digits more than once.

The New Republic's Noam Scheiber points out 10 hottest recorded years have all occurred in the past decade or two.

According to a recent study, a great percentage of people say they believe in climate change after recent extreme weather events like the heat waves and Colorado wildfires.

Will is, apparently, not one of those people.

"Come the winter, there will be a cold snap, lots of snow, and the same guys, like E.J. [Dionne, a Washington post columnist], will start lecturing us," he said. "There's a difference between the weather and the climate. I agree with that. We're having some hot weather. Get over it."

Last week, a climate expert told the Associated Press of the recent weather that "this is what global warming looks like."


I used to regard Will as a smart guy. I used to read his work because it gave me a different way to look at issues. Will was conservative but willing to put facts first and politics second.

He's turned into a hack....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting wxchaser97:
I just got back from a 6 hour NASCAR experience event so what did I miss with Daniel & Emilia, anything in the Atlantic, and any big severe weather thanks.


Quick summary:

Daniel stays at 90kts on 18z Best Track.

Emily goes up to 55kts on 18z Best Track.

GFS and Euro have a big wave emerging West Africa on long range.
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1165. ncstorm
I cant post the images but can someone post the 144 frame with a weak low at the panhandle and the last frame showing a STRONG wave coming off of africa..looks like things maybe picking up again in the atlantic..and please remember I said vorticitys in my original comment..you guys take things and run with it..its something to discuss which is about weather..






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Quoting CosmicEvents:
No. We're talking about relationships and swapping cheese cake recipes.




yes there has so dont say no


Daniel is still at 90kt & Emilia is up too 55kt
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114753
1163. Patrap
Dis aint no disco, nor drive thru.

Read back if ya wanna catch up on not much one could say.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I just got back from a 6 hour NASCAR experience event so what did I miss with Daniel & Emilia, anything in the Atlantic, and any big severe weather thanks.
No. We're talking about relationships and swapping cheese cake recipes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
I just got back from a 6 hour NASCAR experience event so what did I miss with Daniel & Emilia, anything in the Atlantic, and any big severe weather thanks.



nothing going on in the Atlantic


Daniel is still at 90kt & Emilia is now up too 55KT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114753
Quoting ncstorm:
850mb is not weak vorticity..


nothing showed up on the run, very weak 1015mb low heading into the panhandle
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I just got back from a 6 hour NASCAR experience event so what did I miss with Daniel & Emilia, anything in the Atlantic, and any big severe weather thanks.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
1158. ncstorm
850mb is not weak vorticity..
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1157. bappit
We could talk about personal boundaries. Wikipedia:

"The loss of personal boundaries, and the absorption of the self into a quasi-public world, is one of the key features associated with psychosis."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5958

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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