Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
Electric Night
Another Hot Sunset 2 (Nikongranny)
Another Hot Sunset 2

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Quoting Skyepony:


GEOS-5 picked up all the storms to develop this year first or close to it, along with two that didn't. It's been 50/50 on where the ones that formed went. So it was unwavering wrong about Debbie going to TX.. It's a model, I wouldn't "trust" any of them.

That wave maybe interesting to watch once closer to FL. Hopefully brings me rain. Models so far suggest it will be moving too fast & facing too much shear from the SW to pull it together.


my distrust of it has nothing to do with debby, but we will see
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1706. Gearsts
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS has it too and by the way I wasn't bullish as I was just stating that we could have something as the Gulf is hot right now. Whether people like it or not the Cape Verde season is showing signs that it may start to get going. The position of this Bermuda High has me on edge. We can only hope that a trough sets up over the eastern US over the next 2 weeks.
You should wait cause 10days out is long range for the models and it will change. Also yes the cape verde season should be starting as it always does by this time of the year you are saying FL should watch the low in the gfs and euro but again is just way too early and conditions still suck in the MDR.
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Although all the signs are here for arrival of an El Nino event the warm sst off south america and the slow increase in temperature in the central pacific has not been reflected in the in the pacific to herald the rapid onset of an el nino event. it apperas that the 2012 el nino will be a weak one and will not have too much of a adverse effect on the atlantic hurricane season this year. what will affect the numbers are the cooler than normal sst and the rather dry and stable upper levels in the MDR
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1704. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning To All From America's Left Coast
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1701. ncstorm
HPC Precip Map


SPC Severe Weather Map
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1700. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Bluestorm5:


85 Knots = 97.81 MPH

Emilia is already Category 2... I wonders how strong she will be.
she will make it to cat 4 be a three after sunset today maybe
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1699. bappit
Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino or not the shear across the Atlantic Basin is really low for this being El-Nino.

That comment does not really make sense.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
1698. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and it also has an open wave off the coast.
I dont trust that model to forecast sunshine....


GEOS-5 picked up all the storms to develop this year first or close to it, along with two that didn't. It's been 50/50 on where the ones that formed went. So it was unwavering wrong about Debbie going to TX.. It's a model, I wouldn't "trust" any of them.

That wave maybe interesting to watch once closer to FL. Hopefully brings me rain. Models so far suggest it will be moving too fast & facing too much shear from the SW to pull it together.
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Quoting ernesto2012:
as i said the pacific activity will continue to pick up and the atlantic is going down the tubes...el nino is here and it doesnt sit well with the atlantic hurricane season....i really doubt if we get a storm in july or even august....i think we are going to have to wait for the fronts to come down and something form on the front....no this hurricane season for 2012 is in the dumpster.....el nino came out to early i think it even surprised the NHC....
upwelling.in.the.epac.atlantics.turn.is.coming
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Emilia is a cat 2 per 12z Best track.

EP, 05, 2012070912, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1094W, 85, 977, HU

Link


85 Knots = 97.81 MPH

Emilia is already Category 2... I wonders how strong she will be.
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1695. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ernesto2012:
even the gulf ssts are cooled down from last year...anything forms in the gulf will be nothing to get excited about...


where do u see the cooling from last year to this year

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1694. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS has it too and by the way I wasn't bullish as I was just stating that we could have something as the Gulf is hot right now. Whether people like it or not the Cape Verde season is showing signs that it may start to get going. The position of this Bermuda High has me on edge. We can only hope that a trough sets up over the eastern US over the next 2 weeks.


Yesterday I posted the Euro where it had several vorticities in the GOM as well as on the east coast..
Today's run


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Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino or not the shear across the Atlantic Basin is really low for this being El-Nino.
40 knots in mid-Atlantic isn't low.
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El-Nino or not the shear across the Atlantic Basin is really low for this being El-Nino.
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1690. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ernesto2012:
as i said the pacific activity will continue to pick up and the atlantic is going down the tubes...el nino is here and it doesnt sit well with the atlantic hurricane season....i really doubt if we get a storm in july or even august....i think we are going to have to wait for the fronts to come down and something form on the front....no this hurricane season for 2012 is in the dumpster.....el nino came out to early i think it even surprised the NHC....
all right wise guy i hope you are around when a killer storm slams into a populated area so you can tell them not to worry no cane season this year
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Quoting stoormfury:
with the MJO beginning to set up off the coast of Afica, this could be the start of the cape verde season


Yup look near Africa. This could be why the models are jumping on a Cape Verde system developing over the next 7 to 10 days.

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Emilia is a cat 2 per 12z Best track.

EP, 05, 2012070912, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1094W, 85, 977, HU

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 is showing a possible invest in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday..


Keeps it weak & moves it into Southern Mississippi/Southern Alabama Friday & Saturday..


Yeah the gulf is one to watch this week with a trough setting up over the SE US. That is what the Euro was showing last week.
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Mariner’s Guide For Hurricane Awareness In
The North Atlantic Basin

Each year, an average of ten tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and
Gulf of Mexico. Of these ten storms, six typically develop into hurricanes.

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally
weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
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Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 is showing a possible invest in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday..


Keeps it weak & moves it into Southern Mississippi/Southern Alabama Friday & Saturday..


and it also has an open wave off the coast.
I dont trust that model to forecast sunshine....
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1675. StormTracker2K 8:45 AM EDT on July 09, 201

Good Morning. I say this respectfully as you were real bullish on that same model last week which was showing the wave moving into the Gulf near Florida with possible development; it never happened.

Better to wait a until model consensus from several models before jumping on this one IMHO.



GFS has it too and by the way I wasn't bullish as I was just stating that we could have something as the Gulf is hot right now. Whether people like it or not the Cape Verde season is showing signs that it may start to get going. The position of this Bermuda High has me on edge. We can only hope that a trough sets up over the eastern US over the next 2 weeks.
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with the MJO beginning to set up off the coast of Afica, this could be the start of the cape verde season
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1681. Skyepony (Mod)
GEOS-5 is showing a possible invest in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday..


Keeps it weak & moves it into Southern Mississippi/Southern Alabama Friday & Saturday..
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Both the EUROand GFS are showing a low pressure area in the EATL by wednesday next week
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the low off Africa that the Euro developes and notice all the lows over Africa. So you can really tell things are about to go crazy in the tropics over the next few weeks so enjoy the quiet time now as things will change fast come next week.




nah...
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1675. StormTracker2K 8:45 AM EDT on July 09, 201

Good Morning. I say this respectfully as you were real bullish on that same model last week which was showing the wave moving into the Gulf near Florida with possible development; it never happened.

Better to wait a until model consensus from several models before jumping on this one IMHO.

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Here's the low off Africa that the Euro developes and notice all the lows over Africa. So you can really tell things are about to go crazy in the tropics over the next few weeks so enjoy the quiet time now as things will change fast come next week.

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1676. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:




its winter in the Southern Hemisphere
its not the southern hemisphere its the tropical pacific region and if you look you can see tha cooling right on the 0 degree mark west ward winter does not matter its the tropical region there is cooling occuring looks like neutral it will be
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. Here is the am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk..............All clear.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
720 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG 25N...WHILE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN ANTILLES. AT MID-LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHED AT 700-750 HPA AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 40-45MM. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS...AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING COMING DAYS.
..AS INFLUENCE OF RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE. EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST DECREASING IN SPEED BY 72 HRS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...MODELS AGREE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF 10-15MM/DAY. THE CHANCE OF LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN TIER OF PUERTO RICO AS DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES IS ADVECTED WESTWARD.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



As for the tropical Atlantic, the ITCZ looks pretty healthy but has dropped back down below 10N.........Still a few weeks before we get to that magical line above 10 but we have had a few stragglers recently above 10N that have not developed. The current waves are E-Pac bound.



Euro is showing a storm next week from one of these waves rolling off Africa. This one could be douzy and it's this one the US really needs to watch!


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Quoting floridaboy14:
yeah slight cooling. i wonder why. last year we were supposed to be neutral and out of nowhere la nina formed




its winter in the Southern Hemisphere
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Good Morning Folks. Here is the am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk..............All clear.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
720 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG 25N...WHILE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN ANTILLES. AT MID-LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHED AT 700-750 HPA AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 40-45MM. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS...AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING COMING DAYS.
..AS INFLUENCE OF RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE. EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST DECREASING IN SPEED BY 72 HRS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...MODELS AGREE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF 10-15MM/DAY. THE CHANCE OF LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN TIER OF PUERTO RICO AS DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES IS ADVECTED WESTWARD.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



As for the tropical Atlantic, the ITCZ looks pretty healthy but has dropped back down below 10N.........Still a few weeks before we get to that magical line above 10 but we have had a few stragglers recently above 10N that have not developed. The current waves are E-Pac bound.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
COMPARE MAPS JUN 9 2012 JUL 9 2012 LOOKS LIKE COOLING TO ME BUT MAYBE A ROCKET SCIENTIST CAN CONFIRM THIS


yeah slight cooling. i wonder why. last year we were supposed to be neutral and out of nowhere la nina formed
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1671. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The scary thing is there is nothing in the way to stop these systems from developing into powerful systems all the way to the US Coast as shear and dry air are absent right now.



What are you on about ?, there is 40 kts of shear in the middle of the Atlantic.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
COMPARE MAPS JUN 9 2012 JUL 9 2012 LOOKS LIKE COOLING TO ME BUT MAYBE A ROCKET SCIENTIST CAN CONFIRM THIS




Remember Keeper it's winter in the Southern Hemisphere so you would expect to see SST's cool this time of year but as an average they are running 1 to 2 degrees above average near S America.
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1669. MahFL
At home we lost internet 6 pm Saturday, and it's not back on yet, from an intense thunderstorm. We actually had 2 sparks near our kitchen ceiling, from 2 differet blts of lightning, although none of the kitchen appliences were damaged. Good news Comcast are coming out today to try fix it.
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1668. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
COMPARE MAPS JUN 9 2012 JUL 9 2012 LOOKS LIKE COOLING TO ME BUT MAYBE A ROCKET SCIENTIST CAN CONFIRM THIS


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Quoting floridaboy14:
i see el nino has not been strenghthining.


Looks like the same as last week.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
i see el nino has not been strenghthining.
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1665. icmoore
This is a link to the Beach Beacon and an article about the damage that Debby did to the beaches here. I really hope the area is spared in the near future...

Link
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Good morning. Hopefully,any of our friends here got disconnected by that thing that is occuring today with the PC's. I am here so nothing happened on this end.

Wow,Emilia is doing the RI bigtime now.My peak intensity is 125kts.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
1662. icmoore
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I never post this early in the morning but this is concerning! I smell a 2004 set up happening here.

0Z GFS


Good morning and NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! :) Already had a nice sun shower with some thunder this morning.
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Quoting NSB207:
What has happened to the usual afternoon showers in East Central Florida?

NOAA prediction is for a wetter than normal period, but nada!


I'm NW of Orlando and I got rain nearly everyday last week but I see what you mean as coastal Volusia and then back down into Orlando itself and there has hardly been any rain while 15 miles NW of Orlando we have been getting hammered. Weird! Hopefully this week will bring rain areawide.
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
Hurricane EMILIA
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1658. NSB207
What has happened to the usual afternoon showers in East Central Florida?

NOAA prediction is for a wetter than normal period, but nada!
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Picked up 2.54" of rain yesterday from an intense late afternoon thunderstorm that produced some very intense lightning. For the month I'm at 4.14" for the month.

Here's some hail video from this storm 2 miles west of me.
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.