Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
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777. ScottLincoln
2:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
I don't know if anyone still cares about this string of our thread, but Dr M DID post about the heat island effect and any possible temperature measurement anomalies this may cause here:
Link

Nothing directly relating to the flash flood aspect of it, but there's certainly an argument to be made there. I know where I live (MN), 3"+ rainfalls have doubled in frequency, which is certainly (at least partially) related to the increased amount of water vapor our warmer planet can hold...



There is at least some evidence suggesting that the urban heat island effect has changed rainfall patterns "downwind" of large urban areas. Clearly it's real and it is having an effect, but urban areas are the minority of land areas, and land areas are the minority of our planet's surface. The effect averaged globally is just not significant.

In regards to the increase in high-end precipitation events, are you referring to the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization report?
http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3172
776. ScottLincoln
2:29 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


have ya'll ever looked to see how much hard surace area a town has say to compared to 10-15 yrs ago figuring economic booms a state might be expericing and do ya have access to gov sat maps because the ones i have access are a yr old because when they do fly overs is during winter when tree forage is less i have no access to military sat maps


If you have the ability to view GIS gridded data, you can download the 2001 and 2006 impervious surface estimates from the USGS Seamless server:
http://seamless.usgs.gov/website/seamless/viewer. htm

This would give you a way to estimate impervious surface changes, at least over a short period. I believe there are other papers out there on this topic. One pet project of mine for the last few years has been to try and digitize buildings and paved surfaces from old aerial imagery back to 1930 for a rapidly urbanizing watershed to use in a model to estimate the impact on flash flooding.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3172
775. AtHomeInTX
12:51 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
When is that suppose to happèn


I think they are dated 120625.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
774. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
773. Tropicsweatherpr
12:41 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Up to 75kts.

EP, 04, 2012070712, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1186W, 75, 980, HU
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
772. TAMPASHIELD
12:29 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
on a delta flight from prico to new orleans fourty yrs ago one of the engines exploded and we had to make a landing in miami there were firetrucks on the side of the runway waiting. no problems though. man is not meant to fly except in our dreams


Keep saying that to yourself... I don't like your register date...
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 297
771. islander101010
12:27 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
Daniel expected to go down...

headed to hi.they can expect some rainshowers from it in a few days
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4377
770. islander101010
12:25 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
on a delta flight from prico to new orleans fourty yrs ago one of the engines exploded and we had to make a landing in miami there were firetrucks on the side of the runway waiting. no problems though. man is not meant to fly except in our dreams
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4377
769. GeoffreyWPB
12:23 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11014
768. Tropicsweatherpr
12:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
African wave fighting SAL...



Hi pr. Is there a tiny circulation in that small ball around 9N-40W?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
767. WxGeekVA
11:56 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yay! I'm a hurricane... haha! That's my name!

Omg you too!?!?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
766. MAweatherboy1
11:37 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
765. sunlinepr
11:25 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
African wave fighting SAL...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9738
764. sunlinepr
11:23 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
97L will repeat the same story....?

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9738
763. sunlinepr
11:22 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Daniel expected to go down...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9738
762. trunkmonkey
11:16 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Then a miracle was found, ..revealed, Yelled about..cheered.

The aircraft was destroyed during the impact, explosion, and subsequent ground fire. A total of 153 people were killed (145 passengers and crew on board and 8 on the ground). Another 4 people on the ground sustained injuries.

In one of the destroyed houses, a baby was discovered in a crib covered with debris that protected her from the flames.


Six houses were destroyed; five houses were damaged substantially.

Shes a Mother..30 years later.





I went to an After Action Class, by the Fire Chief, when he gave the class, he was still distraught and that was a year after the crash, I will never forget this guy!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
761. weatherh98
11:15 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

WOAH, whats up with the CMC and UKMET?

theyve gone crazy, the wave wont develop
Ik but it shows the wave going where I think it goes soo.

Cmc is apocalyptic
Ukmet has brain disease
Lol.

Someone doesn't like seaside
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
760. weatherh98
11:13 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


When do people realize that waves fizzle when they hop off of africa?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
759. GeorgiaStormz
11:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2012

WOAH, whats up with the CMC and UKMET?

theyve gone crazy, the wave wont develop
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
758. Tropicsweatherpr
11:02 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Daniel has become quite a nice storm...



Good morning.It has around 12-18 hours left before it hits cooler waters.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
757. weatherh98
10:58 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


NOGAPS
The models make me look like I know what I'm doing
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
756. CaribBoy
10:34 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
July is starting yo get boring! El nino go away please we need rain!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6028
755. MAweatherboy1
10:19 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Good morning. Daniel has become quite a nice storm...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
754. LargoFl
10:18 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
753. LargoFl
10:16 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
752. LargoFl
10:14 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
751. allancalderini
8:40 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
TPZ44 KNHC 070833
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

HINTS OF AN EYE ARE APPARENT IN THE LAST FEW GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
DATA SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC...AND A SSMIS PASS AROUND 0400 UTC
INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RAGGED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES. DANIEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THESE
COMBINED FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING STARTING IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.7N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.2N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 16.3N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4100
750. allancalderini
8:36 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


CMC
When is that suppose to happèn
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4100
749. GPTGUY
7:28 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting GPTGUY:

Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.

I have video of that.


Link
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
748. GPTGUY
7:23 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.

I have video of that.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
747. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:09 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
746. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:49 AM GMT on July 07, 2012


NOGAPS
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
745. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:45 AM GMT on July 07, 2012


UKMET
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
744. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:43 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
743. geepy86
6:35 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



LOL

That's not gonna happen ; )
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1701
742. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:32 AM GMT on July 07, 2012



LOL CMC AGAIN
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
741. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:30 AM GMT on July 07, 2012


CMC
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
740. tropicfreak
6:03 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting Civicane49:
Daniel becomes a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

...DANIEL BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


Yay! I'm a hurricane... haha! That's my name!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
739. Grothar
5:39 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25571
736. Patrap
5:25 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting spleenstomper:


Acrid. I don't think it was only JP-4 we were smelling. :( did you read the FAA report? So interesting/horrible/gruesome/sad.

Going to say a prayer then off to bed.... Night.


I read the NTSB report and heard the Tapes.

They were trying to make the canal, to avoid the Homes but Airspeed and angle of attack was both lost..and the tree somersaulted the aircraft thru the Hood.

They made a bad decision to roll V1,V2 into a July Thunderstorm.

And with Full Crew and Passengers aboard, Load,fuel,a Micro-Burst..,well, fate turned and it happened.

Am going to the Mass Monday.

I will think of you and yours then and now.

G'night.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
734. Patrap
5:09 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting spleenstomper:


I misspoke... She lived a few houses down from the little girl on the porch. Fairway Dr almost at 17th street.

We obviously didn't get onto the scene until the next day. My parents erred in judgement bringing us there. I can still SMELL it when I think about it.


I dated a Girl named Diane that lived right close there too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
733. Patrap
5:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting spleenstomper:


Did you get a busy signal? We did because the phone lines were knocked down. You must have been at wits end given how far away you were and with no Internet and twitter...


My Dad answered as he just got off at 4pm from Shell Norco and had just came down Roosevelt to Westgate 8-9 minutes before it happened..so I knew right away by his tone it was bad as he could smell the JP-4 even his way.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
732. Patrap
5:06 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
West Metairie and Roosevelt Blvd,the Shell Station.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
728. BahaHurican
4:57 AM GMT on July 07, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

Not really. I've attended several funerals for the sole purpose of providing support, but I wasn't at all close to the deceased. Remember, we are talking about the individual -- the one who's dead. I never said he wasn't close to the other attendants.
I find that different societies have different practices. I find here - and to a certain extent throughout the Southern US - one attends the funeral to support the deceased person's family as much as or sometimes more than out of love / respect / close relationship with the deceased. This is particularly true if you, like me, have a large extended family. In other societies, large crowds at the funeral symbolizes excessive stress on the bereaved family, so only those who feel genuinely bereaved attend the funeral.

In any case, I think I'm going to go out and turn my car around before I head to bed tonight, because it looks like it's likely to rain before I get up in the morning...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21665
727. HurricaneHunterJoe
4:56 AM GMT on July 07, 2012


a bit old?....................my bad
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.