Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
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With a lessened hibernation season last year and weather and climate conditions snake bites are at all time highs in many states, with Florida leading the way. They're out and about.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Grothar:

See, I told you if we glared at the GOM for long enough something would step up and manifest. I still don't know why some theoretical storms get diamond shapes instead of ovoids or spheres?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3170
Quoting Grothar:
Some earlier models have hinted at some development in the SW Caribbean; then they drop it.


Sometimes you just have to go with what you know and throw the models out of the window.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting weatherh98:


i think its called a la mesa central over there not 100% sure


You missed that one too, weather!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
Quoting goosegirl1:
I just remembered the funniest mis-heard lyric ever. My daugter's friend used to replace a word in the Eagles song- "looking for a lover who won't blow my cover" with... well, replace "cover" with "a male sibling", if you wish to avoid a ban. Too cute!


LOL
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


bringing in the sheaves


Correct- referring to a big celestial harvest someday, when sheaves of wheat need to be brought in from the fields. It's a reference to Judgement Day, and thus appropriate to be played while you lsten to a list of the people who passed away during the night.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
Quoting dabirds:
midgulfmom - same prob w/ Deacon Blues from Steely Dan - call me peek a boo - til I saw name of song -duh
OH NO!!!! U mentioned Deacon Blues!!!!! Now I must go and play it 47 times in a row!!!!!

lol

I "discovered" Deacon Blues long after Steely Dan had come to an end [started to use an appropriate metaphor, then thought "family blog" ;o)]... because I don't follow much US football, it took me a while to figure out what in the WORLD they were talking about...

Some of the Best all-round "I think a hurricane is coming" music there is... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
I just wrote a very exciting NEW BLOG!!! about Daniel and 97E which you should read.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7612
Quoting NoNamePub:
Dr M. No Love for the pacific?
Hawaii watching 97e with great interest


you mean daniel
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Some earlier models have hinted at some development in the SW Caribbean; then they drop it.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


sooo what was it actually?!


bringing in the sheaves
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Dr M. No Love for the pacific?
Hawaii watching 97e with great interest
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Quoting goosegirl1:
My brother and I once got into an argument about the gospel song that played every morning on our mom's radio, while she listened to the obits (strange, I know.) I said "bringing in the cheese", while his was "bringing in the sheep." Neither was correct, but at least his made sense :) Who harvests cheese, anyway?


sooo what was it actually?!
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, I've always heard the rain in Spain stays mainly on the plain.


i think its called a la mesa central over there not 100% sure
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
http://blogs.nature.com/from_the_lab_bench/2012/0 7/06/weathering-the-storm-surge

Researchers at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, La, have created the first comprehensive database of storm surge information for small and large tropical cyclones alike to hit the Gulf Coast and shores worldwide since 1880. The database, called SURGEDAT, is unique in that it pulls from historical data to help validate computational modelling approaches to hurricane and storm surge predictions.
....
SURGEDAT currently provides an interactive map showing locations of more than 400 peak surge events along the Gulf Coast and worldwide. The coordinates for each surge event are plotted in a Geographic Information System, or GIS, with each surge event represented by a circle on the map. Larger, darker circles represent larger surges.

For more about SURGEDAT, read the whole story on LSU's website, written by LSU Research Communications Intern Paige Brown.

http://www.lsu.edu/departments/gold
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
My brother and I once got into an argument about the gospel song that played every morning on our mom's radio, while she listened to the obits (strange, I know.) I said "bringing in the cheese", while his was "bringing in the sheep." Neither was correct, but at least his made sense :) Who harvests cheese, anyway?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Which was so weird...usually pple r running FROM the Keys....

Unfortunately the plains are real hogs, while the rest of the country seems to bee in a perpetual rain shadow...



Well, I've always heard the rain in Spain stays mainly on the plain.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
Boomer's

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting kwgirl:
2004 was the year that folks came to Key West to "shelter" their planes and boats from the storms.
Which was so weird...usually pple r running FROM the Keys....

Quoting Grothar:


...in Spain.
Unfortunately the plains are real precipitation hogs, while the rest of the country seems to be in a perpetual rain shadow...

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
401. weatherh98
9:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no, sprite please.
and a big bag of jolly ranchers.

youve gotten quite good with paint.
i might even end up writing a blog myself...


good do it its fun to see people appreciate it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
400. weatherh98
9:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Imma bit mad, .97 inches. not 1 .97.... thats okay i got a nother storm coming :)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
399. GeorgiaStormz
9:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
fresca anyone


no, sprite please.
and a big bag of jolly ranchers.

youve gotten quite good with paint.
i might even end up writing a blog myself...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
398. weatherh98
9:09 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
fresca anyone
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
397. TStormSC
9:09 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
Quoting BobWallace:




I always wonder about the people who comment here who don't understand this graph.


Graph looks good. Using an exponential trend to extrapolate is what I would take issue with. Not knocking the downward trend, but you have to take into account that the abrupt downward extrapolation is where you loose some of those who are willing to listen.
Member Since: July 15, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 205
396. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:08 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
395. Tribucanes
9:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Shadow of an atom has some nice hurricane characteristics.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
394. BahaHurican
9:05 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
The pictures hardly show how bad it was.
These your pics, hydrus?

Actually, if it looks like this all round, that's pretty bad...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
393. GeorgiaStormz
9:04 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Front yard.


you really live in the thicket...
an F0 near you could be a real problem.
here 60mph winds arent even a worry.
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392. GeorgiaStormz
9:02 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
shadow of an atom...



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391. Tribucanes
9:00 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Cuba has seen a lot of daytime storms this week that occupy the whole island and virtually none of storms were over water at all. Intriguing to watch.
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390. BahaHurican
8:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Afternoon all. Home at last after another hot, busy day. And did I mention HOT???

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389. hydrus
8:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Front yard.
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388. nigel20
8:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We could be dealing with a cat 1+ storm in a few days.
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387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
386. hydrus
8:56 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Dat still creeps me out.

I Liked the Mosquito coils at the Drive in.



Loved those things..Especially when we anchored on the Shark River in the everglades. Citronella is also effective.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20501
385. GeorgiaStormz
8:56 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting GPTGUY:


You mean the heat index was 98 degrees? its impossible to have the temp at 98 and a humidity reading at 99% at the same time.


no its not. It just means that 98F air has 99% of the moisture it can hold.
I dont know exactly where it happens, maybe just after a tstorm in 110 weather next to the ocean.
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384. GeorgiaStormz
8:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


ouch.

I see i missed the lottery guys, just to be safe, i claim half on wh98's share
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383. MAweatherboy1
8:52 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7612
382. MAweatherboy1
8:50 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

...DANIEL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 116.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. DANIEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7612
381. Levi32
8:49 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
Pretty sure you got the speed shear part wrong.

I always thought of speed shear as the opposite. In normal sheared conditions upper level clouds are being blown away from the low level circulation. That's the reason I always though speed shear was different was because the circulation would actually move out ahead of the convection because of faster low level flow. Otherwise, if it just happened in the process you described (convection getting away from the llc), every sheared situation could be considered speed shear.


Speed shear is simply shear induced by the difference in wind speeds between different levels of the atmosphere, not difference in direction of wind flow. Yes the term could be applied everywhere to an extent, but it usually refers to a uniform wind flow, such as off western Africa where both low-level and upper-level winds are easterly, but one air stream is faster than the other.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
380. midgulfmom
8:48 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Pat I'm right south of ya....u r my alert!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
379. GPTGUY
8:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
well thats what the sign at a bank there said..humidity is high dunno if it really is 99..although..storms were around



lol yea a temp of 98 and humidity of 99% would produce a heat index of 179!! dont trust those bank signs!!
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
378. midgulfmom
8:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting dabirds:
midgulfmom - same prob w/ Deacon Blues from Steely Dan - call me peek a boo - til I saw name of song -duh
FOTFL!.....
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
377. dabirds
8:46 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
If a Major City loses Power from another Large MCS,Derecho thingee, and the heat is in place.

Well, calamity could follow.


Read that and UFO came on Media Player - Too Hot To Handle - let's hope not!
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 722

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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