Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
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Rio Rico, AZ
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Atlantic WAVEtrak 5 Day Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
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looks like relief is on the way

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting RTSplayer:

Over all, about the same amount of ice will melt each year anyway, if you plotted the TOTAL of the two ice amounts: land and sea; It's just a matter of variation between the two and where that loss comes from.


That assumes that ocean/air temps in the Arctic and subsequent ice melt is at equilibrium with the rate of global climate warming, and that said increase in heat was linear. Neither of these can adequately describe the state the climate system right now.

Right now, Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns. Until land ice can begin melting at a rate that it provides a volume of ice comparable to sea ice losses through already-observed mechanisms, this will not change.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.89 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 89.2°F
Dewpoint: 62.1°F
Humidity: 40 %
Wind: N 11 mph
Humidex: 98


FINALLY BELOW 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is this the most impressive and powerful wave that we've seen move off of Africa so far, or is it my imagination?

Someone with better links, please post a superior animation of this thing.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.






Its mid-level signature really isn't that impressive, with very little wind shift at 650mb within the African Easterly Jet. Short-term convective flare-up could largely be a result of daytime heating.

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My View of Gustavs same approach.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That graph is of Arctic sea ice. If by "Greenland ice" you are referring to "ice on Greenland", then that would not be something shown on a graph of sea ice. I'm not exactly sure what you are trying to get at in your critique of why you are skeptical of the graph, but the rate of ice loss, both sea ice and greenland ice, has been shown to be accelerating through more than one method.



I'm not skeptical of the ice loss.

What I'm saying is the HUGE amount of ice on land is going to start acting as a temporary buffer to further change in ice loss and SST in the arctic, simply because it's there and there's so much of it.

Yes, it's all melting, and it's all melting exponentially, I know this.

Over all, about the same amount of ice will melt each year anyway, if you plotted the TOTAL of the two ice amounts: land and sea; It's just a matter of variation between the two and where that loss comes from.

If I had a pond with ice in it, and I have a wall with ice 3 feet deep stacked on top of it, and I blow hot air over the wall, which is going to melt first? The pond, or the wall?

I'd say the wall, unless some freaky effects intervene.


It's VERY hard to warm that pole in winter time. It's -40C to -60C, so even 5C or 10C worth of polar warming won't hurt the "winter time" ice pack automatically, but only over a very long time...


Nevertheless, first september meltdown should be 5 to 10 years.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
Quoting Methurricanes:
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.


Uploaded by djnanashi on Aug 31, 2008

This was the first wave of Gustav hitting the French Quarter in New Orleans. At the end you can see the speed the storm clouds are coming in and hear the wind picking up

Note everyone is evacuated.

These are Tourist,,and note her tone at the end. It was a creepy Eyewall approach.

Like a Bad Sci-Fi Movie..in 3D.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is this the most impressive and powerful wave that we've seen move off of Africa so far, or is it my imagination?

Someone with better links, please post a superior animation of this thing.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.









Eastern and central MDR is average SST at best, as a general rule.



I wouldn't get too excited until it passes 45 west. It's not like there's some hot anomaly on the east side of the MDR or anything like that. Plus there's more dry air over there right now than a few weeks ago even.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Graph may be a little over doing it for about the 4 iciest months, since in order to get that bad, you'd probably first need to melt all or most of the Greenland ice.

Still, it's probably very reliable for about the 4 or 5 warmest/least icy Northern Hemisphere months.

That graph is of Arctic sea ice. If by "Greenland ice" you are referring to "ice on Greenland", then that would not be something shown on a graph of sea ice. I'm not exactly sure what you are trying to get at in your critique of why you are skeptical of the graph, but the rate of ice loss, both sea ice and greenland ice, has been shown to be accelerating through more than one method.
Quoting RTSplayer:
The more ice you melt, the more convection can carry away the heat from the ocean and mix it with the atmosphere, so it actually gets harder to keep melting the ice.

Generally the feedback for the Arctic sea ice is considered to be positive, as the ice melts, albedo increases dramatically (this has already been observed) which increases the rate of melt. The fact that the trend line best fit is exponential is consistent with that understanding of the cryosphere.
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515. yoboi
Quoting Methurricanes:
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.


yep had to deal with that one also first time i have seen a total coastal evacuation order given in la,from the texas state line to the mississippi line, then had ike strike right after that, cameron had worse flooding for ike than rita by 2 feet. storm surge was 22 feet for ike 20 for rita and 19 for audrey
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Looks like whatever is left of that wave is sort of merging with the afternoon pops over Cuba.

Last night really did a number on that thing, and it'd be hard pressed for whatever's remains to rebuild at this point.

I could hardly find any offshore storms at all on Cuban radar compared to 24 to 36 hours ago when it was near Puerto Rico.


Cuban Radar

Yeah, there's a ling of storms out over the water, but that's looking pretty weak by comparison...
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dang I sure hope these storms wash away the 100 degree heat we've been having...just watched these bad boys pop, not often you see heavy rain in the sunshine around here

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97E up to 60%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Is this the most impressive and powerful wave that we've seen move off of Africa so far, or is it my imagination?

Someone with better links, please post a superior animation of this thing.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Chicago O'Hare officially hit 103F today, and Chicago Midway airport hit 105F. West suburban Itasca is said to have reached 108F!

An interesting side note: Official records state that Chicago's all -time high is 105F in July 1934. However, the official thermometer then was at the University of Chicago Campus, located right on the lakeshore. On that same day Midway airport (around 10 miles inland) reached 109F. Also, in 1936, Midway airport recorded 8 straight days above 100F. Just to put things in a bit of perspective.
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Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.



Lol your on the levee
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting LargoFl:
well thats what the sign at a bank there said..humidity is high dunno if it really is 99..although..storms were around

Which is why bank thermometers are not official observing stations.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no its not. It just means that 98F air has 99% of the moisture it can hold.
I dont know exactly where it happens, maybe just after a tstorm in 110 weather next to the ocean.

It is about as close to impossible as you can get... the highest recorded dewpoint in the world is usually published as in the mid 90s Fahrenheit.
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It's been in the making for days: The Sun has unleashed an X class flare.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7612
Uploaded by bnvn1 on Sep 6, 2010

RAW MASTER

08/30/2005 Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, LA Aftermath Video - Katrina Raw Master 32. To license this footage, visit http://www.stormchasingvideo.com .

08/30/2005 Footage shot at Interstate 10 and Causeway Overpass of Coast Guard and National Guard helicopters landing and dropping off people who were rescued from their roof tops in New Orleans.

Footage shows the massive rescue effort that was happening as survivors were waiting for additional busses to transport them to shelters outside of the devastated area. Footage ends with an interview of a man that asked for a ride from the photographer to try and get to his mothers home to take shelter in the city of Kenner, LA.

The interview explains what happened to him which is pretty much the same story for most of the survivors of Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans, La. area. Catalog ends with non flooding storm damage along Airline Highway.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
501. dolig

appears the GOM is getting warm...

Link
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Quoting yoboi:


do ya have anymore pics of i-10 an causeway?








Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
499. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Quoting yoboi:


wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...


I want to thank you personally for being there.

Those were trying times for men and Nature as well.


thank you pat, yes it was, then i went back home and had to deal with rita a few weeks later....can't really put into words how 2005 was for la...
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When it forms into Emilia,IMO,it may be the strongest system this EPAC season if it gets great enviromental conditions.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 06 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...


LOW PRESSURE 1006 MB NEAR 09N95W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THUS FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TOWARD A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EVENT IN THE EPAC. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
THIS CASE WOULD BE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ENABLE
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE LATEST FORECAST FROM
NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting Grothar:
From Hurricane History:


Hurricane of July, 1502--Was a storm that the great explorer and discoverer of American, Christopher Columbus, predicted would strike the island of Hispanola. He used his prediction to warn the Governor of Hispanola, Nicholas de Ovando, who had 30 ships in his fleet set sail back to Spain. However, the governor ignored him, and refused Columbus' request to stay in port at Santo Domingo. Within two days the storm struck in the Mona Passage between Hispanola and Puerto Rico, and sank 21 of the 30 ships, and killed approximately 500 sailors.


Pay attention to what Christopher Columbus says to you. After all, he did discover the New World. So that makes his opinion worth more than that pathetic governor.
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496. yoboi
Quoting captainmark:
Most of New Orleans is below sea level so many
of the elevations are listed in Cairo Datum which
applies a positive number instead of a negative one
to avoid confusion. For example, a property may
have its slab elevation listed as 20.03 feet but
still may be 4 feet below sea level. There is a
conversion table to convert but I don't know how
to post it here. Many home owners here do not realize
this.


i did not know that and i live in la
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Quoting yoboi:


wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...


I want to thank you personally for being there.

Those were trying times for men and Nature as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Most of New Orleans is below sea level so many
of the elevations are listed in Cairo Datum which
applies a positive number instead of a negative one
to avoid confusion. For example, a property may
have its slab elevation listed as 20.03 feet but
still may be 4 feet below sea level. There is a
conversion table to convert but I don't know how
to post it here. Many home owners here do not realize
this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
493. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


Causeway and I-10 was the Rally Helo Point.







Vets and 17th Canal One was entry Point to Lakeview,east.

Sandbagging breech






do ya have anymore pics of i-10 an causeway?
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Quoting yoboi:


wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...


Causeway and I-10 was the Rally Helo Point.







Vets and 17th Canal One was entry Point to Lakeview,east.

Sandbagging breech




Canal Blvd, I-610




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
491. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


Thats pretty near here..we gutted these 3 in Upper 9th Ward in late November on N. Robertson.





wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...
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www.weather.com

Today's Top Headlines
Upper Midwest in Storm Zone Today
Waterspout Swirls Off Panama City
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
From Hurricane History:


Hurricane of July, 1502--Was a storm that the great explorer and discoverer of American, Christopher Columbus, predicted would strike the island of Hispanola. He used his prediction to warn the Governor of Hispanola, Nicholas de Ovando, who had 30 ships in his fleet set sail back to Spain. However, the governor ignored him, and refused Columbus' request to stay in port at Santo Domingo. Within two days the storm struck in the Mona Passage between Hispanola and Puerto Rico, and sank 21 of the 30 ships, and killed approximately 500 sailors.
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I hate to back up what Hydrus posted earlier in this fashion... but TWC has some pictures from Tennessee of the storms on their weather.com
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Quoting yoboi:


i think some of the worst flooding i saw was in st bernard parish...


Thats pretty near here..we gutted these 3 in Upper 9th Ward in late November on N. Robertson.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol... not you, the EPAC... wants to hog all the precipitation and leave none for the CAR...


I couldn't let that one go :)
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Quoting GPTGUY:


it doesnt happen anywhere lol...a 98 degree temp with 99% humidity produces a heat index of 179 degrees! where on earth have you heard of a heat index of 179? tell me and then ill agree with you!


hmm, maybe you are right.
I doubt it would happen, but youd never know.
The moisture would have to be introduced unnaturally..
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484. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.

Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.



i think some of the worst flooding i saw was in st bernard parish...
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483. wxmod
Quoting TStormSC:


Graph looks good. Using an exponential trend to extrapolate is what I would take issue with. Not knocking the downward trend, but you have to take into account that the abrupt downward extrapolation is where you loose some of those who are willing to listen.


In two months the Arctic sea ice will be at record low volume, lower volume than any year in the last thousand at least. I'm not going to argue about the style of graph. Come back in two months and tell me I'm wrong. The graph is telling you something and you are making excuses for not looking at it.
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482. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.



oh ok i remember that area during katrina.....
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Quoting yoboi:


the elavation is 20' or 20"????


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....is that "The Blob"
.....or perhaps your finger?
My finger was a blob that day.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
478. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Went from 97F to dis..


Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans

Elevation
20 ft

Rain
Temperature
75.0 °F
Feels Like 74 °F

Hee, hee..
You can here a collective..Ahhhhhhh fer miles.


the elavation is 20' or 20"????
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you really live in the thicket...
an F0 near you could be a real problem.
here 60mph winds arent even a worry.
I was looking for"before Pics". Cant find them yet.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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