Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

Share this Blog
26
+

It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
double rainbow

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 577 - 527

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Deleted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
576. yoboi
how could anything survive in the GOM right now, it would be tore apart
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
574. yoboi
Quoting weatherh98:


after that, yall may need something stronger



if it's to complex break out the everclear, with a drop of fresca
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
573. yoboi
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Evening, everyone! It rained!!! Was walking around the PX with my daughter when a huge thunder crashed overhead, instantly the electric went off. A few seconds later the electric came back on. It did this about five or six times. Then the rain hit, thunder on the roof. Everyone was smiling and we could tell who didn't live on Post as they were saying exactly what I had just said to my daughter - "I hope it's raining at home!"


where ya get rain at ??

i didn't get a drop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.

There's nowhere else for it to go.
It cant go down into the seabed; so it must migrate up through the ice into the atmosphere. This will lead to increased heat over the North pole and added surface to cloud level activity.
As I keep moaning about this, it will lead to surface storms in the Arctic and churn up the dormant waters which have been moribund for millennium!
All I can add to this is that I hope I can exist long enough to see what happens. Its going to be interesting to say the least!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


hide ya kids hide ya wife.. jk its just hurricane daniel


no its hide yo kids, hide yo wife, daniel be something-ing everybody up in here..

weather chat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
570. yoboi
hey DOC M did ya'll ever switch servers to the twc? i been having probs past few days is there an twc IT dept i can e-mail???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:

Moan! :-
"Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns."
Man you got to get reality into perspective, not that I in any way disagree with your write up But:-
If the ice melts, we have got big problems with methane, and storms over the Arctic. Very few people , apart from some on here seem to grasp the implications of this.
The Atlantic and the Northern Pacific are separated by ICE! The ice can be removed by heat and in fact will be!
Once the ice is gone then storms that churn up water will prevail in the Arctic. So something that we as humans have never experienced. This is going to be one hell of a show!
Added to the above, we have the mundane increase in methane and the progressive melting of the tundra and the permafrost. All a bit of a bore if you are waiting for a Cat 5? in the Caribbean!
All a bit of a worry if you look a few years ahead of now?



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting weatherh98:


Well considering this...

and this....


her day is numbered..

pay attention to the ssts in the east pacific. they have cooled. el nino stalling?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
567. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:


i say it will make it too cat 5
Quoting Tazmanian:


i say it will make it too cat 5



why not just say it will make it to cat 7 taz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
..Lord I miss Daniel





God It looks like Daniel,must be the clouds in my eyes
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting BahaHurican:
Finally. I was thinking it might have time to get to cat 2 before the inevitable weakening set in, but I dunno...


i say it will make it too cat 5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That assumes that ocean/air temps in the Arctic and subsequent ice melt is at equilibrium with the rate of global climate warming, and that said increase in heat was linear. Neither of these can adequately describe the state the climate system right now.

Right now, Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns. Until land ice can begin melting at a rate that it provides a volume of ice comparable to sea ice losses through already-observed mechanisms, this will not change.

Moan! :-
"Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns."
Man you got to get reality into perspective, not that I in any way disagree with your write up But:-
If the ice melts, we have got big problems with methane, and storms over the Arctic. Very few people , apart from some on here seem to grasp the implications of this.
The Atlantic and the Northern Pacific are separated by ICE! The ice can be removed by heat and in fact will be!
Once the ice is gone then storms that churn up water will prevail in the Arctic. So something that we as humans have never experienced. This is going to be one hell of a show!
Added to the above, we have the mundane increase in methane and the progressive melting of the tundra and the permafrost. All a bit of a bore if you are waiting for a Cat 5? in the Caribbean!
All a bit of a worry if you look a few years ahead of now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plutorising:
because i'm going to the beaches of south carolina, i predict that the blob currently off hatteras will form into a tropical storm and be pushed southeast far enough to form into a nice hurricane, and wham right at the georgia/south carolina coast as a cat2. 

the day after i leave...


This is 2012. I guess anything can happen.



Actually has convection over water showing up on Dvorak now. Not too shabby, but still far from what it was even yesterday.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Blob going to get much further west than it is now? Cuba is a launching pad for energy and storm feed with the island and surrounding waters being so hot for this time of year. Been watching Cuba flare with thunderstorm activity all through the week. Mostly the storms remained over the majority of Cuba and not the surrounding waters and dissipated at night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
because i'm going to the beaches of south carolina, i predict that the blob currently off hatteras will form into a tropical storm and be pushed southeast far enough to form into a nice hurricane, and wham right at the georgia/south carolina coast as a cat2. 

the day after i leave...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting timtlu:


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?


And, given a normal distribution, the number of standard deviations away a number is from a sample mean can be calculated using a z-score.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


or drink some beer and throw some dice???


after that, yall may need something stronger
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting RTSplayer:
Caution: You're about to enter the no shear zone.




Lol.

Wonder if this remnants is really worth watching?


Im going to make a blog on sunday including that, its featured in my blog from today
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting timtlu:


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?


That WAS English, though I must admit, I was equally perplexed by the outburst of mathematical elucidation.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
GFDL on 97E



Edit: Picture won't show up, but it shows a Cat 2 storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
555. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.
Quoting Patrap:
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.


or drink some beer and throw some dice???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting timtlu:


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?



hablamos matematicas in espanol.

Fresca?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Caution: You're about to enter the no shear zone.




Lol.

Wonder if this remnants is really worth watching?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Patrap:
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening, everyone! It rained!!! Was walking around the PX with my daughter when a huge thunder crashed overhead, instantly the electric went off. A few seconds later the electric came back on. It did this about five or six times. Then the rain hit, thunder on the roof. Everyone was smiling and we could tell who didn't live on Post as they were saying exactly what I had just said to my daughter - "I hope it's raining at home!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Finally. I was thinking it might have time to get to cat 2 before the inevitable weakening set in, but I dunno...


Well considering this...

and this....


her day is numbered..
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


hide ya kids hide ya wife.. jk its just hurricane daniel
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
we got a new hurricane


EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU
Finally. I was thinking it might have time to get to cat 2 before the inevitable weakening set in, but I dunno...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hard to say... If the blast from this X flare is squarely directed at Earth it would be possible.


Thank you:) my knowledge of solar flares is more than most people but less than most of you.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Very strong convection looks to be building around what looks to be a forming eye...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I thought this was interesting, forecaster discussion from the Cincy, OH region:

quote:

Saturday is shaping up to be a very interesting day to say the
least. Upper level high will settle south across the Ohio Valley.
Using a blend of the NAM and European model (ecmwf)...forecast 850 mb temperatures
are expected to peak between 25 c and 26 c. These values are very
anomalously high considering past climate data. In fact...they
are 3 to 4 Standard deviations from climatology...which is very rare
indeed. Given that many locations to our west have been recording
high temperatures in the 103 to 107 range with these type of
values (srn Wisconsin was around 106 on thursday) leads ME to
believe that Saturday is shaping up to be one of the hottest days
in our area for quite some time. Other factors that are favorable
will be an increasing west wind between 10 and 15 miles per hour as a cold
front approaches slowly from the north...which may add a
compressional heating factor. Also...skies should be mostly
sunny...and with the lack of convection...the full heating process
should be undisturbed. As a result...will be forecasting highs
from 102 to 106 with all three climate sites flirting with 105
degrees. With deep mixing expected...dewpoints should drop into
the middle 60s by late in the day. These values combined with the
record breaking heat will result in heat index values of 108 to
113.

3-4 standard deviations! Any more knowledgable folks have thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Thats cool... Are we expecting technical problems?

Hard to say... If the blast from this X flare is squarely directed at Earth it would be possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Geomagnetic storm now in progress...



This is a really great website for these kind of things.


Thats cool... Are we expecting technical problems?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting aspectre:
Wrong analogy. Talk about a pro-football stadium filled with ice next to a pond covered in an inch of ice. Which is gonna melt first?


Depends on a lot of variables. Like is the field heated? Is either area in the shade? What's the temperature of both areas? Is one being refrigerated? Lotta variables I see here...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
Quoting weatherh98:


Technical problems expected?

Geomagnetic storm now in progress...



This is a really great website for these kind of things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A major solar flare reaching X1.1 peaked at 23:08 UTC Friday evening.

The flare was centered around Sunspot 1515.


Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


LASCO



EVE X-RAY





Technical problems expected?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Wrong analogy, RTSplayer. Talk about a pro-football stadium filled with ice next to a pond covered in an inch of ice. Which is gonna melt first?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
we got a new hurricane


EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU


Hey!! i thought so!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Hurricane Daniel:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Its mid-level signature really isn't that impressive, with very little wind shift at 650mb within the African Easterly Jet. Short-term convective flare-up could largely be a result of daytime heating.



Where do you think the wave in the carribbean go to bring rain

Im leaning towards florida, im thinking that the 1016 millibar line is going to retreat east a bit as the next trough digs in. The TUTT has killed any chance of development on this thing but a ligitement gulf coast rain threat I would think.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
we got a new hurricane


EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some dramatic pictures of the sinking of the Brownwood subdivision of Baytown are here. It's a nature preserve today, what's still above sea level.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CaptainMarks debut post got me to do a search on New Orleans and datums. Some interesting reading on New Orleans, the River and such out there.

Historical Background on the New Orleans Levee System

The Hurricane of Sept. 29th, 1915, and Subsequent Heavy Rainfalls.

Vertical Settlement They ain't talking about high rises.

The datum issue can be tricky since the ground is continually settling particularly with water being pumped from aquifers and oil/gas production. I saw a broadcast while the Allison flood waters were still subsiding where they had an engineer from Rice University on along with Neil Frank. The Rice professor was basically calling Frank a liar about the amount of rain that had fallen. He insisted that it had been greater than reported. Turns out he was involved in the design of a hospital where the emergency generators had flooded--at least that's my recollection. What I also remember after things had settled down some is that they realized the benchmark they used in designing the hospital had subsided by about three feet.

Parts of Houston have subsided dramatically because of ground water pumping. I know I've commented on this blog about this before, but I think the issue is worth bringing up again. It is not just a matter of using old datums. Newer ones can be inaccurate, too.

Edit: They have a Houston-Galveston subsidence district established to deal with the issue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A major solar flare reaching X1.1 peaked at 23:08 UTC Friday evening.

The flare was centered around Sunspot 1515.


Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


LASCO



EVE X-RAY



Member Since: Posts: Comments:


850 Vort Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic WAVEtrak 5 Day Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 577 - 527

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast