Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?
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Quoting Skyepony:


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.
Hey, skye. Looks like it's a match for the excessive heat and dryness, yet again, over Russia.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The Scale of the Universe 2


That was one of the coolest things I've ever seen, Georgia... good stuff!
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Quoting nigel20:

There seems to be a bit of cooling in the equatorial pacific between 110W and 70W.

Edit...That should have been 80W.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
Quoting Civicane49:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...
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Quoting RTSplayer:
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

There seems to be a bit of cooling in the equatorial pacific between 110W and 70W.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
621. yoboi
Quoting Skyepony:


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.


cell service in impacted area's is not that great in india they depend alot on cell service for weather people there will have a cell phone over a tv it's a little differ there but it's a nice place to visit, when i was there most news is shared by someone with a cell phone did not see that many tv's there....
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Deleted
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619. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 97E is not moveing at all


almost looked like in took one jog to the south and a jog to the west crazy....
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618. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).


when studying flooding events do ya consider soil conditions prior to rain event ??? terrain? elevation?
tidal events??? just curious what's involved
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617. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
My thoughts and prayers to those effected. I'm very impressed with KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora's ability to keep track of the local animal population.


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.
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looks like 97E is not moveing at all
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FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...BRADFORD...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE AND UNION COUNTIES
SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES AFFECTING COLUMBIA...
GILCHRIST AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...RESIDENTS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THREATENED PROPERTY. HIGH AND FAST
FLOWING RIVERS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR RECREATION OF ANY KIND. KEEP
CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

&&

FLC001-007-023-041-121-125-080108-
/O.CON.KJAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FWHF1.3.ER.120627T2052Z.120701T0500Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 5:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 26.0 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...DAMAGE TO HOMES AT LOW ELEVATION AS WELL AS
BASEMENT AREAS UNDERNEATH HOMES ON STILTS IS LIKELY.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MINOR DAMAGE TO DWELLINGS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
BOAT WASH.

&&


FLD OBSERVED 7AM FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SAT SUN MON TUE WED

SANTA FE
FORT WHITE 24.0 26.8 FRI 05 PM 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.5



$$
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614. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).


what's ya range to study?? usa part of usa or beyond?
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El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Skyepony:
Sea Ice volume..free falling...


Hey Skye...do you think that the ice will fall below the record low set in 2007?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


God It looks like Daniel,must be the clouds in my eyes
lol..GREAT SONG
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)

One thing you never hear people talk about is permanent water lock-up, as you would find in the more modern plumbing of new houses and apartments and high-rises in say, China or India, or the A/Cs they're now running that convert otherwise precipitable moisture into condensation drips, or even the physical bodies of new people.

Once that water is locked out of the cycle, how does one replace it?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3228
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


are you involved in any research anymore?
if so what?


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here
My thoughts and prayers to those effected. I'm very impressed with KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora's ability to keep track of the local animal population.
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607. yoboi
Quoting Autistic2:


Most of the ICW is between 25 and 40 feet here. There is ONE intersection that is 70 feet for a couple of hundred yards. My hummingbird said it was 86 all the way down. I went there just to see. I know the ICW is not like an ocean but it is alot of water and at 86-87 it felt very good to swim in! The gulf stream is 40 miles offshore here. I dont think the icw water makes it out more than a mile or two.


where it was 86-87 is there a crossing for deep water draft ships is it close to some locks??
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Derived from the 7July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:

Its vector* had changed from 11.2mph(18km/h) West to 10.1mph(16.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had increased from 60knots(69mph)111km/h to 65knots(75mph)120km/h
And minimum pressure decreased from 993millibars to 988millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost half-dot on the kinked line is where TropicalDepression 4E became TS.Daniel
Westernmost dot on the kinked line is Daniel's final position as a TropicalStorm
Easternmost dot on the longest line is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel & its most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
6July6amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 268miles(431kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Southern half of the end-blob on the longest line)
6July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 551miles(887kilometres) South of Hawaii*
(SSEastern half of the unconnected blob)
6July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 536miles(863kilometres) South of Hawaii
(NNWestern half of the unconnected blob)
7July12amGMT: H.Daniel was headed toward passing 247miles(397kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Northern half of the end-blob on the longest line) in ~10days14hours from now

Copy&paste hi25, 15.0271n155.346w, 11.007n154.323w, 11.212n154.394w, san, 9n157w, csl, 13.8n109.0w- 14.0n110.0w- 14.1n111.2w- 14.3n112.6w- 14.4n113.5w- 14.4n114.5w- 14.4n115.5w, 14.4n115.5w-14.5n116.4w, 14.4n115.5w-15.333n155.418w, 18.911n155.681w-15.333n155.418w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
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605. Skyepony (Mod)
Sea Ice volume..free falling...

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604. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




now now you no the rulse on that



lol i know taz had to poke a little fun in things...
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Quoting yoboi:


i don't think the intercoastal is deeper than 75 feet it's like taking water temps out a swimming pool if ya had alot of fresh water rain it would drop quick if not much rain it would read hot; plus ya would have to compare tug traffic over the yrs because they churn up water in the intercoastal lot of varables


Most of the ICW is between 25 and 40 feet here. There is ONE intersection that is 70 feet for a couple of hundred yards. My hummingbird said it was 86 all the way down. I went there just to see. I know the ICW is not like an ocean but it is alot of water and at 86-87 it felt very good to swim in! The gulf stream is 40 miles offshore here. I dont think the icw water makes it out more than a mile or two.
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602. yoboi
Quoting beell:


Amazing how calm and rain-free it is for a hurricane approach. Unbelieveable!


hurricanes are like horses they each have there own personality.....
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Quoting RTSplayer:
The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.

I'd probably expect it to be somewhat reversed from that... I believe that the oceans are currently acting as a heat sink, thus net heat energy transfer to the oceans from the land/atmosphere. As the oceans warm, it will not necessarily mean that heat will travel from the oceans to the atmosphere, but instead that the heat sink will be reduced or virtually "used up" such that land/atmosphere/ice warming must accelerate to reach balance.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


We are pretty teeny in the realm of things.............Imagine a big solar flare off one of these other puppies!!


The Sun is theoretically capable of some insane phenomena under the right conditions, but I doubt what I have in mind has happened in a very long time.

The Sun is believed to have several thousand years worth of it's radiation built up inside of it bouncing around, and that it takes several thousand years on average for the light we "see" to have gotten to the surface and escaped as light.

This begs the question, what if a rogue planet, about the size of the Earth hit the Sun hard enough to penetrate relatively deep into it, so that this insane amount of radiation escaped over a matter of a few seconds to a few minutes?

If it was pointed towards the Earth, it would be truly Biblical.

If you released an entire extra day's worth of energy instantaneously, I suspect it would probably thermolize, vaporize, or vitrify everything on one side of the Earth, as the solar constant would be some unimaginably high number, like 118 megawatts per meter squared...for like one second.

Now that's if just one day's worth of energy was released symetrically over one second.

I'm positive that would incinerate everything on at least half of the planet.

Compared to what the Sun is theoretically capable of, even that would be a mere blip.


Really, even one second's worth of that would probably kill everything on the planet unless it's in the deepest caves in the ocean...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting yoboi:



why not just say it will make it to cat 7 taz




now now you no the rulse on that
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


good evening, care to join us in weather chat, the blog is slow

I'm getting this when i try to enter
"Error to load client configuration file"
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
596. beell
Quoting Patrap:


Uploaded by djnanashi on Aug 31, 2008

This was the first wave of Gustav hitting the French Quarter in New Orleans. At the end you can see the speed the storm clouds are coming in and hear the wind picking up

Note everyone is evacuated.

These are Tourist,,and note her tone at the end. It was a creepy Eyewall approach.

Like a Bad Sci-Fi Movie..in 3D.






Amazing how calm and rain-free it is for a hurricane eyewall approach. Unbelieveable!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The Scale of the Universe 2


Yup, Ive seen that a while back......makes ya think....lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Daniel may make strong Category 1 status but the real show will be Emilia (97E).


I wont be surprised if Emilia is a major cane down the road.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)


are you involved in any research anymore?
if so what?
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592. yoboi
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here



india is almost like ville platte hard to get people to listen....
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Man you got to get reality into perspective, not that I in any way disagree with your write up But:-
If the ice melts, we have got big problems with methane, and storms over the Arctic. Very few people , apart from some on here seem to grasp the implications of this.

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)
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Quoting yoboi:



if it's to complex break out the everclear, with a drop of fresca

sounds like a plan
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


good evening, care to join us in weather chat, the blog is slow
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588. yoboi
Quoting snow2fire:
One more thing about standard deviations – in real systems, describing variability gets complicated in a hurry.

Say you conduct a 20 tests to describe how fast a car will go on a flat road at a given engine rpm. You conclude that at 1800 plus or minus 50 rpm, the car’s speed was, for example, 60 mph plus or minus 3 mph.

In this example, you might retest the car and observe, that going up hill, the car won’t go over 50 mph (over 3 standard deviations from the 1st test). Also, with the car going downhill, the average speed of the car might be 70 plus or minus 3 mph (mostly outside 3 SDs). At that point, you have to conclude that the car’s speed depends on engine rpm and road grade. Variability in car speed depends on both engine rpm and road grade.

But, other variables might affect the speed of the car (e.g. temperature, gravel vs. concrete, age of car, etc. etc.). So, before you can say that the car’s performance is, or is not, within 3 standard deviations, you need to better understand what statistically affects the car’s speed.

Bottom line, standard deviation of systems with multiple dependent and independent variables gets complicated in a hurry.


whats the wind speed and direction??? temp of road how hot or tires at start of each run? any down drafts??
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Good evening everyone!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
One more thing about standard deviations – in real systems, describing variability gets complicated in a hurry.

Say you conduct a 20 tests to describe how fast a car will go on a flat road at a given engine rpm. You conclude that at 1800 plus or minus 50 rpm, the car’s speed was, for example, 60 mph plus or minus 3 mph.

In this example, you might retest the car and observe, that going up hill, the car won’t go over 50 mph (over 3 standard deviations from the 1st test). Also, with the car going downhill, the average speed of the car might be 70 plus or minus 3 mph (mostly outside 3 SDs). At that point, you have to conclude that the car’s speed depends on engine rpm and road grade. Variability in car speed depends on both engine rpm and road grade.

But, other variables might affect the speed of the car (e.g. temperature, gravel vs. concrete, age of car, etc. etc.). So, before you can say that the car’s performance is, or is not, within 3 standard deviations, you need to better understand what statistically affects the car’s speed.

Bottom line, standard deviation of systems with multiple dependent and independent variables gets complicated in a hurry.
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585. Skyepony (Mod)
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here
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Quoting weatherh98:


You leave and i join in...


i join in again and you dont answer
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


We are pretty teeny in the realm of things.............Imagine a big solar flare off one of these other puppies!!


The Scale of the Universe 2
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no its hide yo kids, hide yo wife, daniel be something-ing everybody up in here..

weather chat.


You leave and i join in...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
581. yoboi
Quoting Autistic2:
I just came back and got the boat cleaned. The water temp in the intercostal was 87 degrees. That is the hottest I have ever seen it here in 40 years. Really 20 since I had a fish finder! My new one shows isotherms and there were none. The ICW was 87 degrees wither it was 15 feet or 50 feet.


i don't think the intercoastal is deeper than 75 feet it's like taking water temps out a swimming pool if ya had alot of fresh water rain it would drop quick if not much rain it would read hot; plus ya would have to compare tug traffic over the yrs because they churn up water in the intercoastal lot of varables
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


We are pretty teeny in the realm of things.............Imagine a big solar flare off one of these other puppies!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
I just came back and got the boat cleaned. The water temp in the intercostal was 87 degrees. That is the hottest I have ever seen it here in 40 years. Really 20 since I had a fish finder! My new one shows isotherms and there were none. The ICW was 87 degrees wither it was 15 feet or 50 feet.
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Daniel may make strong Category 1 status but the real show will be Emilia (97E).
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Deleted
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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