Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
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Rio Rico, AZ
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677. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?


I would suspect that this person is close to the expired individual or we would not attend the funeral. As far as the weather goes Texas still needs the rain in all areas. Bring it on please.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
emguy last night was saying to keep an eye on it as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic



I said it first :)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


that has a much more ominous look this evening! anything going on in there?


Are you talking about here or with the wave? :)
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emguy last night was saying to keep an eye on it as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
Quoting Tazmanian:




you think?



i would say YES!


Hey, Taz
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671. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.



i figure heat rises, just going by what i seen as a fire fighter now a civil engineer, take the thermal layer with heat rising and factor in wind speed an direction an when reaches cooler temps heat will fall like putting out a fire heat rises over land crosses water most times cooler drops down to lower level will heat water
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Quoting Grothar:
Rain for Florida?



that has a much more ominous look this evening! anything going on in there?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
Quoting Grothar:
Rain for Florida?





you think?



i would say YES!
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Fabio will probably form from the wave that is in the central caribbean.
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667. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

What you are discussing is generally referred to as "impervious area." It can be estimated through manual digitizing of aerial/satellite pictures and ground surveys, or estimated through satellite-based remote sensing. Impervious areas allow rainfall to immediately runoff into drainages and then streams/rivers - it can skip the soil entirely. Very important to modeling flash floods in particular and fits in with "land use" like I mentioned earlier. This data can be viewed/downloaded from the USGS on the Seamless server.

Depends.... for day to day stuff, that is just too much detail to try and take into account for such a large area. If one were doing an in-depth study of a very small watershed, especially in urban areas, those things would probably be looked at. Many times in the bigger picture those types of things are just lumped into other parameters. Even if we wanted to take levels of retention ponds into account, we typically have no automated data for such structures indicating their storage at the start of a rainfall event.


have ya'll ever looked to see how much hard surace area a town has say to compared to 10-15 yrs ago figuring economic booms a state might be expericing and do ya have access to gov sat maps because the ones i have access are a yr old because when they do fly overs is during winter when tree forage is less i have no access to military sat maps
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Rain for Florida?

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665. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:



It has been reported in several science papers, and has been cited many times on various articles on physdotorg.


Tell you what, to make things easier, just visit neven's site and pay attention on the blog there for a while, as well as the articles.

Neven's site for sea ice discussion and updates


And now to clarify something, temperatures in high latitudes is not the same thing as "global averages".


I don't mean to critique this figure, but people just plain ol don't know everything, especially evident in models that deal with things that have never happened before.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting yoboi:
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.
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663. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

What you are discussing is generally referred to as "impervious area." It can be estimated through manual digitizing of aerial/satellite pictures and ground surveys, or estimated through satellite-based remote sensing. Impervious areas allow rainfall to immediately runoff into drainages and then streams/rivers - it can skip the soil entirely. Very important to modeling flash floods in particular and fits in with "land use" like I mentioned earlier. This data can be viewed/downloaded from the USGS on the Seamless server.

Depends.... for day to day stuff, that is just too much detail to try and take into account for such a large area. If one were doing an in-depth study of a very small watershed, especially in urban areas, those things would probably be looked at. Many times in the bigger picture those types of things are just lumped into other parameters. Even if we wanted to take levels of retention ponds into account, we typically have no automated data for such structures indicating their storage at the start of a rainfall event.


i can tell ya right now not many slopes into retention ponds are built to the right grade i have seen things built on a 20 degree slop and runoff is so quick most inspectors don't look to see if slop is at code they are building things almost forcing things like ya live in a valley and 1 inch of rain today is not like 1 inch of rain 10 yrs ago that's why we having more flash flooding events now just things i see...
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could this be what the ECW is picking up on be hid 97E?



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Quoting wxmod:


What happens to people's brains when they reach 126 degrees?


You mean here on WU? We mostly drink Fresca to cool down.
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Quoting yoboi:
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??


That is called Urban Heat Island effect and it's a well known phenomenon that is already taken into consideration in global warming studies.
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659. yoboi
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??
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Quoting yoboi:


do ya also figure concrete areas per sq ft yr by yr to figure runoff??? this type of stuff really interest me....

What you are discussing is generally referred to as "impervious area." It can be estimated through manual digitizing of aerial/satellite pictures and ground surveys, or estimated through satellite-based remote sensing. Impervious areas allow rainfall to immediately runoff into drainages and then streams/rivers - it can skip the soil entirely. Very important to modeling flash floods in particular and fits in with "land use" like I mentioned earlier. This data can be viewed/downloaded from the USGS on the Seamless server.
Quoting yoboi:



do ya'll also consider the new zonning laws about retention ponds and the levels of the retention ponds prior to a rain event?

Depends.... for day to day stuff, that is just too much detail to try and take into account for such a large area. If one were doing an in-depth study of a very small watershed, especially in urban areas, those things would probably be looked at. Many times in the bigger picture those types of things are just lumped into other parameters. Even if we wanted to take levels of retention ponds into account, we typically have no automated data for such structures indicating their storage at the start of a rainfall event.
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657. wxmod
Quoting PlazaRed:

There's nowhere else for it to go.
It cant go down into the seabed; so it must migrate up through the ice into the atmosphere. This will lead to increased heat over the North pole and added surface to cloud level activity.
As I keep moaning about this, it will lead to surface storms in the Arctic and churn up the dormant waters which have been moribund for millennium!
All I can add to this is that I hope I can exist long enough to see what happens. Its going to be interesting to say the least!


I hope to see what happens too, but that's unlikely. I want to watch as the people who promoted big oil and coal all take out their guns and start shooting each other, cause they won't have any other "solutions" to the problem. What happens to people's brains when they reach 126 degrees?
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


EURO wants 3 at once

Triplet
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
654. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.



do ya'll also consider the new zonning laws about retention ponds and the levels of the retention ponds prior to a rain event?
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Quoting wxmod:


Where on Earth do you get that statistic? Did anybody really say that with a straight face?



It has been reported in several science papers, and has been cited many times on various articles on physdotorg.


Tell you what, to make things easier, just visit neven's site and pay attention on the blog there for a while, as well as the articles.

Neven's site for sea ice discussion and updates


And now to clarify something, temperatures in high latitudes is not the same thing as "global averages".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


EURO wants 3 at once
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
651. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.


Where on Earth do you get that statistic? Did anybody really say that with a straight face?
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Nige... is it still raining there?

No, but I'm happy for the relief that we got from the tropical wave.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
649. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.


i would like to know how much sq ft of concrete was in houston in 1980 compared to 2012 i know concrete can't ingest water unless the temp was high an evaperation was considered but i would like to know how fast concrete cools down beyond evaperation, 12 inch slap verses a 20 inch slap also i know concrete know is not as strong now as compared to 20 yrs ago due to the fact now they use limestone as gravel softer stone compared to pea gravel back then, retention heat had to be higher back then lot of stuff ya would have to factor
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Cousin-in-law. His kids and I are "in set" as they say here [meaning of a similar age], so I am going to support the family, more so than because we were close.


Ah. Good deal.
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Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully you'll be able to attend with little or no interruption!
Hey, Nige... is it still raining there?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?
Cousin-in-law. His kids and I are "in set" as they say here [meaning of a similar age], so I am going to support the family, more so than because we were close.
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645. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.


do ya also figure concrete areas per sq ft yr by yr to figure runoff??? this type of stuff really interest me....
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.


I also happen to think that's the primary reason the US has gotten so lucky with hurricanes the past couple years. The large-scale pattern has featured a persistent heat ridge over the central US, with a trough downstream over the western Atlantic. This has been the case since 2010, and although we have already had two landfalls this year, that pattern seems to be coming back yet again.

I really don't want to attribute climate change to every single weather event. I really don't. But there is honestly zero explanation for why these whacky and seemingly anomalous events are happening more often now.
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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

DANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A
65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST. THE
NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

DANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. DANIEL
HAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN
CAPTURING THAT MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Quoting LargoFl:
lol..GREAT SONG


INDEED!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't think records were supposed to be broken every year. Yet that seems to be norm lately. And not just for sea ice.

Jesus.


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.
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Quoting yoboi:


what yr was alicia that one i did not know was it in the middle 80's??? i kinda recall that storm i was working in la porte/ baytown by houston and i think that was alicia


Alicia hit in '83.
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Daniel becomes a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

...DANIEL BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The Sun is theoretically capable of some insane phenomena under the right conditions, but I doubt what I have in mind has happened in a very long time.

The Sun is believed to have several thousand years worth of it's radiation built up inside of it bouncing around, and that it takes several thousand years on average for the light we "see" to have gotten to the surface and escaped as light.

This begs the question, what if a rogue planet, about the size of the Earth hit the Sun hard enough to penetrate relatively deep into it, so that this insane amount of radiation escaped over a matter of a few seconds to a few minutes?

If it was pointed towards the Earth, it would be truly Biblical.

If you released an entire extra day's worth of energy instantaneously, I suspect it would probably thermolize, vaporize, or vitrify everything on one side of the Earth, as the solar constant would be some unimaginably high number, like 118 megawatts per meter squared...for like one second.

Now that's if just one day's worth of energy was released symetrically over one second.

I'm positive that would incinerate everything on at least half of the planet.

Compared to what the Sun is theoretically capable of, even that would be a mere blip.


Really, even one second's worth of that would probably kill everything on the planet unless it's in the deepest caves in the ocean...


It would be FUBAR
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
Quoting Skyepony:


Extent is far below the peak melt for that year plus sea ice extent is less at this time of year than it was in 2007, the weather pattern right now is overall bad for the ice..I'd say chances are good the record will once again be broken this year.


I didn't think records were supposed to be broken every year. Yet that seems to be norm lately. And not just for sea ice.

Jesus.
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Quoting yoboi:


what's ya range to study?? usa part of usa or beyond?

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.
Quoting yoboi:


when studying flooding events do ya consider soil conditions prior to rain event ??? terrain? elevation?
tidal events??? just curious what's involved

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.
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Post#: 633
Thanks for the info, Skye.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
634. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


All four have been.


what yr was alicia that one i did not know was it in the middle 80's??? i kinda recall that storm i was working in la porte/ baytown by houston and i think that was alicia
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633. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Skye...do you think that the ice will fall below the record low set in 2007?


Volume is far below the peak melt for that year plus sea ice extent is less at this time of year than it was in 2007, the weather pattern right now is overall bad for the ice..I'd say chances are good the record will once again be broken this year.
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Quoting bappit:

What's the SOI? That's based on atmospheric pressures. With El Nino the tradewinds should lessen.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Traditionally, this index has been calculated based on the differences in air pressure anomaly between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative SOI values coincide with abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño episodes. Prolonged periods of positive SOI values coincide with abnormally cold ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of La Niña episodes.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
Quoting yoboi:


i know 3 out of the 4 storms been retired not sure if all 4 have been


All four have been.
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630. yoboi
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had a sister-in-law that lived in Brownwood when Alicia hit. They ended up on the roof of the house when the levy over topped and flooded Brownwood. Shortly after this the home owners were bought out and the area turned into a reserve, as you have stated.

I have been through Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike. Rita actually hit east of me, but Rita took my roof. ... How many of these have been retired? ;-)


i know 3 out of the 4 storms been retired not sure if all 4 have been
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...

Hopefully you'll be able to attend with little or no interruption!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
Quoting RTSplayer:
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

What's the SOI? That's based on atmospheric pressures. With El Nino the tradewinds should lessen.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.