Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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a bit old?....................my bad
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting spleenstomper:


My aunt lives 4 houses down from where the baby was found. We didn't know if my aunt was alive or not. My parents dragged us to the accident scene and I was in 7th grade. Had nightmares about all the sticks with fluorescent ribbon representing bodies found and about the body bags. If you look at news broadcasts, you will see my family and that is my cousin with the black hair with gret patch on the newsfeeds. Can't believe it has been 30 years.


Grew up in Westgate behind Chapelle High myself.


I was in the Field in 29 Palms, Cali on a CAX Air Wing Runway 8 miles in the Desert.
I heard about it a few minutes after from the ATC Guys. I ran to a Major's Tent, he saw a winded flushed Cpl.

What ya need? He Asked.

"A Commercial Airliner went down near my Home. I need to call Home now".

Whats the number son?..he barked.

Some things stick with yas.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting HurrikanEB:
we had a pretty intense lightning storm the other night just as the local fireworks were starting to go off...
It was one of those storms that you could see spitting out lightning in the distance for a good 20-30 minutes.
To be honest, the storm was more impressive than my local fireworks--even when it was a good 15 miles away.. this photo was taken about 20 miles down the river.


Link
Awesome shot!
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A shot of Egmont Key from Eagle 8, courtesy of Meteorologist Brooks Garner.

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we had a pretty intense lightning storm the other night just as the local fireworks were starting to go off...
It was one of those storms that you could see spitting out lightning in the distance for a solid 30-45 minutes.
To be honest, the storm was more impressive than my local fireworks--even when it was a good 15 miles away.. this photo was taken about 20 miles down the river.



Link
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir .html

Check out the infrared image right now... the high is clearly outlined by a ring of precipitation...



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Some of you are talking about how El Nino will supress tropical activity in the Atlantic this year. However, consider this, the El Ninos of 2002, 2006, and 2009 still managed to generate 12, 9, and 9 named storms after July 10th, respectively. So lets say we take the average of these, that would be 10 additional storms, on top of the 4 we've already had. Therefore, maybe ending up with 14 storms by the end of the season may seem reasonable.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Chances for development this month appear low until the last week of July IMO.


Agreed. Said that before Debby dissipated.
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Chances for development this month appear low until the last week of July IMO.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat of the wave that is about to come off Africa.
do you it has potential to become something in the future?
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a cold front blew through minnesota today, and cooled us down to below 70. about time, if you ask me. wherever you are, it's coming to you too, don't worry!

Quoting tazmaniad:
record high low temps in the upper midwest. does not seeem to be cooling at the forcasted levels
could use a respite from this heat without ac
oh well you take what u can
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Then a miracle was found, ..revealed, Yelled about..cheered.

The aircraft was destroyed during the impact, explosion, and subsequent ground fire. A total of 153 people were killed (145 passengers and crew on board and 8 on the ground). Another 4 people on the ground sustained injuries.

In one of the destroyed houses, a baby was discovered in a crib covered with debris that protected her from the flames.


Six houses were destroyed; five houses were damaged substantially.

Shes a Mother..30 years later.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
713. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat of the wave that is about to come off Africa.
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record high low temps in the upper midwest. does not seeem to be cooling at the forcasted levels
could use a respite from this heat without ac
oh well you take what u can
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"Come Monday 30 years ago..a nightmare, has to be revisited.

We owe it to the lost..the weather involved, and the safety it eventually brought about to all US air travel."

Pan Am Flight 759

Pan Am Flight 759, operated by a Boeing 727-235, N4737 Clipper Defiance, was a regularly scheduled passenger flight from Miami to Las Vegas, with an en route stop at New Orleans. On July 9, 1982 at 4:07:57 PM central daylight time, Flight 759, with seven crew members, one non-revenue passenger in the cockpit jumpseat, and 137 passengers (a total of 145 on board), began its takeoff from runway 10 at the New Orleans International Airport (now Louis Armstrong International), in Kenner, Louisiana.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting 7544:
what ever th wave is looks like it heading forrrrrrrrr


LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234


The west side still hasn't closed? Thats what I see. Is that a correct interpretation?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
708. wxmod
How fast does ice melt in Greenland? The top photo was taken on June 27. The bottom photo was taken July 6.


Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
707. 7544
what ever th wave is looks like it heading forrrrrrrrr
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706. Skyepony (Mod)
Actually really died back in the last hour. Maybe starting to refire over The Bahamas. Click pic for loop.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
How strong should 97E be if it develops and where would it go? Also is there a chance that Daniel gets stronger than forecasted? I have been gone/ busy all day so I just found out 97E and Daniel becoming a hurricane. TIA


Some of the models forecast 97E to become a hurricane. 97E is expected to move west-northwestward and not threaten any landmasses, similar to Daniel's track.

I doubt that Daniel gets stronger than it is forecast as it has about 12 hours left of remaining in warm waters and in moist environment.
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Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm home grown action with that bahama wave ?

nope
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Quoting Skyepony:

I love those night time shots. Glad I'm in a dark spot.
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702. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, is that a closed circulation?


No where near. Scroll back for the recent ASCAT.
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701. 7544
hmmmmm home grown action with that bahama wave ?
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Quoting Skyepony:



Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, is that a closed circulation?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
699. Skyepony (Mod)
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I don't know if anyone still cares about this string of our thread, but Dr M DID post about the heat island effect and any possible temperature measurement anomalies this may cause here:
Link

Nothing directly relating to the flash flood aspect of it, but there's certainly an argument to be made there. I know where I live (MN), 3"+ rainfalls have doubled in frequency, which is certainly (at least partially) related to the increased amount of water vapor our warmer planet can hold...

Quoting yoboi:
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??
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Quoting Grothar:



I said it first :)


You are of course Grothar Guru of Guessdom!!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234

Quoting wxchaser97:
How strong should 97E be if it develops and where would it go? Also is there a chance that Daniel gets stronger than forecasted? I have been gone/ busy all day so I just found out 97E and Daniel becoming a hurricane. TIA
Daniel only has about 12 hours to strengthen further. 97E/Emilia will likely follow the same trajectory as Daniel.
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Quoting owntime:


I would suspect that this person is close to the expired individual or we would not attend the funeral.
Not really. I've attended several funerals for the sole purpose of providing support, but I wasn't at all close to the deceased. Remember, we are talking about the individual -- the one who's dead. I never said he wasn't close to the other attendants.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I really still say it wont develop.
I said it first.


Does look like it's got a bit more ooooomph tonight. is it a DMAX-DMIN thing?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting Grothar:


Are you talking about here or with the wave? :)


LOL coin flip :)
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting yoboi:


also google what bill gates had in mind after 2005 hurricane season, if ya drop huge amounts of ice in a storm and cool sst's below what a trop storm needs could it survive???? after he seen how much it would cost to do that for 1 storm he dropped the idea but with the money ya could do it

You could bail out all of the EU, too, probably--although any heat absorbed by the ice would already have been released into the environment wherever the ice was manufactured--and then some.
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How strong should 97E be if it develops and where would it go? Also is there a chance that Daniel gets stronger than forecasted? I have been gone/ busy all day so I just found out 97E and Daniel becoming a hurricane. TIA
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Rain over the east coast of Fl would be nice
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door open should anything be in the area?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting yoboi:


go to mexico an get it tomm for half the cost


No thank you I will get my local walmart 4 399
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Quoting Grothar:



I said it first :)


As always sir
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
686. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, Skye. so what do you think?


Upper shear over the Bahama/Cuba blob is 15-30kts. Mid-level shear that a weak/shallow storm could live under is 10-kts or less. No convergence at the surface but has decent divergence aloft. Vorticity near the surface is unimpressive. Maybe enhanced chance of rain for FL tomorrow looks to be a good call.
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685. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



Hi getting a ipad 2 next Friday


go to mexico an get it tomm for half the cost
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Quoting Grothar:
Rain for Florida?



A slight increase in moisture BUT bet it fizzles.
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683. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.


also google what bill gates had in mind after 2005 hurricane season, if ya drop huge amounts of ice in a storm and cool sst's below what a trop storm needs could it survive???? after he seen how much it would cost to do that for 1 storm he dropped the idea but with the money ya could do it
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


EURO wants 3 at once


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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Taz



Hi getting a ipad 2 next Friday
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
emguy last night was saying to keep an eye on it as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic


I really still say it wont develop.
I said it first.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Hi, Skye. so what do you think?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
678. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.


i am not saying this is the exact big picture in global warming but i feel it's a major factor just by applying simple physics to the equation, ask yourself this if the whole wworld was covered in a hard surface how do ya think that would affect temps an flash flooding? compare how much grass we had on the globe 100 yrs ago to present day, heat will rise until a cool temp is injected -water temps once that is injected heat falls, ya can walk into a house fire open up fog pattern on nozzle water will evap until temps come down then turn into steam prior to that once ya cool the thermal barrier drop it down to the surface extequish fire
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677. Skyepony (Mod)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.