Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
double rainbow

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In case anyone missed it, I just checked it out after seeing it on Facebook, Levi's site just got some nice new graphics! Already bookmarked it, it will save me trips to other sites!

Tropical Tidbits Analysis
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600 miles from the north pole. MODIS today.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1602
Quoting wxmod:
Open water 250 miles from the north pole. MODIS today

ITS Looking worse every year now,my grandkids or their children might just see the northpole ice free or very little ice there if this keeps up
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Open water 250 miles from the north pole. MODIS today

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Quoting Grothar:


Good prognostication.


Yah, I went out on a limb there.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BIGGEST THREATS WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE. YOU CAN ALSO FOLLOW OUR
OFFICE ON FACEBOOK BY SEARCHING FOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW
ORLEANS OR ON TWITTER BY SEARCHING FOR NWS NEW ORLEANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
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We having a lot of lightning here in Jamaica...i may have to log off if it continues.

Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE

Thursday, July 5, 2012 – 5:00 p.m.

*** INCREASED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY***

A strong Tropical Wave, currently across Hispaniola, is expected to move across Jamaica Thursday night into Friday morning.

While the Wave is across Jamaica, showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, are likely to affect most parishes but particularly eastern parishes. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday night through Friday morning, with an improvement in weather conditions by Friday afternoon.

Fishers and other marine interests should exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

vtj/kjg
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Behind Daniel, the next EPAC storm is already forming. One can see elevated low-level vorticity near 10N, 95W beneath light winds aloft.



More plots here
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.91 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 91.9°F
Dewpoint: 62.1°F
Humidity: 37 %
Wind: WNW 11 gust 17 mph
Humidex: 103
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Thanks Dr Masters...good morning everyone!

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notice the cooling of ssts north of the equator. the dark orange line has been getting thin. could this be a slowing of the upcoming el nino?
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#@&! Nooooooooooo!!!!!!!




ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS TODAY...WITH 15Z TEMPS ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S. MIXING
OCCURRED UP TO NEARLY 750MB YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. TAKING A PARCEL
FROM THAT LEVEL DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON THE 12Z KILX UPPER AIR
SOUNDING YIELDS A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 102 FOR LINCOLN...WHICH
IS 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YERSTERDAYS HIGH. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE...THINK HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
BOARD. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF I-70 APPROACHING 110. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...BUT THESE CHANGES
ARE TOO MINOR TO WARRANT A FULL ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
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Quoting FutureWx6221:
Current intensity less than Dvorak estimate shows a weakening Daniel in the EPAC...at a loss as to why, center is under 5 knots of shear and over 82-83 degree waters.

UW-CIMSS isn't typically very reliable.
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Derived from the 6July12pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
Its vector had changed from 10.4mph(16.7km/h) WNWest to 10.3mph(16.5km/h) WNWest
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 55knots(63mph)102km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path...
HI28 is Pahala :: HI23 is MountainView :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost half-dot on the connected line-segments is where TD.4E became TS.Daniel
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
5July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passage 374miles(602kilometres) South of Hawaii
6July12amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passage 196miles(316kilometres) South of Hawaii
6July6amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passage over HawaiiVolcanoesNationalPark(nearHI28)
6July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel was heading toward passage over LeilaniEstates(nearHI23) in ~10days18hours from now

Copy&paste hi28, hi23, 13.507n155.061w, 16.0613n155.495w, 19.257n155.209w, san, 9n157w, csl, 13.8n109.0w-14.0n110.0w, 14.0n110.0w-14.1n111.2w, 14.1n111.2w-14.3n112.6w, 14.3n112.6w-14.5n113.5w, 14.5n113.5w-14.7n114.4w, 14.5n113.5w-19.431n154.875w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
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Current intensity less than Dvorak estimate shows a weakening Daniel in the EPAC...at a loss as to why, center is under 5 knots of shear and over 82-83 degree waters.
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Gro. Do you know how to upload photos for the blog? I have storm pics.
Did you get an adequate answer to you question?
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On Tuesday lightning blew out out modem and phone lines here at my work and it looks like another round is on tap today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
929 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.UPDATE...

TODAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BASED ON CLOUD MOTIONS...IS ABOUT
OVER VERO BEACH...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CANAVERAL SOUNDING
IS SHOWING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CENTERED IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WAS PROVIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS WAS SPREADING
MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CANAVERAL
SOUNDING INDICATES TEMPS ALOFT HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH.

GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ARE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT THE CANAVERAL SOUNDING IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
(BELOW NORMAL VALUES). THESE LITTLE NUANCES (POCKETS OF
HIGHER/LOWER MOISTURE...DEBRIS CLOUDS...A FEW KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND
DIFFERENCES...ETC.) MAKE DAY TO DAY FORECASTING OF CONVECTION
DIFFICULT.

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BUT THERE IS NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED
AFTERNOON POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH COAST AND 20 PERCENT FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
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i sent mail hydrus let me know if ya can figure it out
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I have to say. Emilia will be one pretty storm, I believe. I just have a feeling...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125467
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should see a Depression from that within the next 48 to 72 hours.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just 1 question

when in the world are we here in Grand Cayman going to get some heavy rain?


I also just found out how to make things big


Congratulations.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23682
Daniel is in a disorganized state currently, though it appears close to becoming a Hurricane, there is cool waters and dry, stable air ahead of it...
I believe Daniel will squeeze out 75 Mph Category 1 status, though nothing considerable will come of him with the inhibitors coming into play within the next 24 hours.
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Quoting Progster:


This GOMEX blob is moving into a very low shear area. No surface convergence to speak of but good divergence aloft. Sort of interesting...


Good prognostication.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23682
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Storm report text

Wow. Not able to use manual html code to make an image link to the storm reports. Or even to post the report image. Usually no problem. OK. Glitchy this morning or... ?

Oops. Just me, on the latter count anyway.
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Quoting hydrus:
I down loaded from my camera to my computer, so there is no url for me to copy and paste. That is where I am lost.

That is where you will have to upload them to wunderphotos or a similar online service for web hosting.

Wunder Photos - Uploading guide
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On the right side of this page.

Recommended Links

About Dr. Jeff Masters

Flying into Hurricane Hugo

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How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125467
Quoting hydrus:
I down loaded from my camera to my computer, so there is no url for me to copy and paste. That is where I am lost.

Upload the pics upto a site. whether it be wunderground, or whichever you choose. Then copy and paste it from the site itself.
Thats what everyone has been basically telling you. Pat posted a link earlier on how to do it on WU.
Take a little time and you'll get it done :-)
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Quoting jeffs713:

You have to upload them either to wunderphotos, or a free image hosting site like imageshack. Then just click the "Image" button when you are typing out the post, and copy/paste the link to the image.

I usually only post images that are publicly posted, like satellite pics and the like.
I down loaded from my camera to my computer, so there is no url for me to copy and paste. That is where I am lost.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-062330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
511 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON ON ALONG AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I 4 CORRIDOR AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...WITH STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL
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East Coast Visible Hurricane Loop

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Thank you Dr. Masters. My family in Wisconsin will be happy to get rid of these record breaking temps. I'm glad they only have two more days before the temps cool a bit
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Quoting Grothar:
Another blob.




This GOMEX blob is moving into a very low shear area. No surface convergence to speak of but good divergence aloft. Sort of interesting...
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Quoting Grothar:


I'm lucky I know where the space bar is on the keyboard and you're asking me how to upload pictures???? :) (Sorry, I don't)
Youmayhavelostyourspacebar,butIforgotmycaPSLOCKKE Y.
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Quoting wxmod:
The arctic's thickest ice is cracking. MODIS today.

Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Gro. Do you know how to upload photos for the blog? I have storm pics.

You have to upload them either to wunderphotos, or a free image hosting site like imageshack. Then just click the "Image" button when you are typing out the post, and copy/paste the link to the image.

I usually only post images that are publicly posted, like satellite pics and the like.
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Quoting Grothar:
Another blob.




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Quoting weatherh98:


Officially the dew point is 69


Looking at the personal weather station readings around the airport, which I assume is where you derive the "official" reading, it looks like the dewpoints are lower there. But I'm 30 miles west of St. Louis and all the dewpoints near me are in the lower to mid 70s.
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BBL
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DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/1200 UTC 14.6N 114.5W T4.0/4.0 DANIEL
06/0600 UTC 14.3N 113.5W T3.5/3.5 DANIEL
06/0000 UTC 13.8N 112.6W T3.5/3.5 DANIEL
05/1800 UTC 14.0N 111.3W T3.0/3.5 DANIEL
05/1200 UTC 13.4N 110.4W T3.5/3.5 04E
05/0600 UTC 13.3N 109.3W T3.0/3.0 04E
05/0000 UTC 13.3N 108.1W T2.5/2.5 04E
04/1800 UTC 13.6N 107.2W T2.0/2.5 04E
04/1200 UTC 13.4N 105.9W T2.5/2.5 04E
04/0545 UTC 12.0N 105.4W T2.5/2.5 96E
03/2345 UTC 10.5N 103.6W T2.0/2.0 96E
03/1745 UTC 11.2N 102.8W T1.5/1.5 96E
03/1145 UTC 10.4N 102.1W T1.5/1.5 96E
03/0545 UTC 10.0N 99.1W T1.0/1.0 96E
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Quoting Grothar:
Another blob.




Eyes see's it to my East.

Itsa Big un.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125467
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just 1 question

when in the world are we here in Grand Cayman going to get some heavy rain?


I also just found out how to make things big


Well, it depends if the TUTT can completely kill off this wave. could be tomorrow couldbe next week
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Gro. Do you know how to upload photos for the blog? I have storm pics.


I'm lucky I know where the space bar is on the keyboard and you're asking me how to upload pictures???? :) (Sorry, I don't)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23682
Tropical Storm 04E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2012 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 14:46:55 N Lon : 114:48:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -62.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees



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Quoting thelmores:


nothing at the surface, development unlikely


yup
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I'll say it's a hurricane...



Very borderline though.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
I'm looking at the tropical wave approaching the Bahamas this morning,there is a spin with this wave you can see it very clear in the Caribbean rainbow loop,just wondering if this means anything? possible development down the line?.


nothing at the surface, development unlikely in the near term......
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hey guys just 1 question

when in the world are we here in Grand Cayman going to get some heavy rain?


I also just found out how to make things big
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Quoting Grothar:
Another blob.




Blob obsession?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.