Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
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Daniel's not looking too great right now IMO... Convection is strong but not very organized.

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting hydrus:
Charley.


That's what my neighborhood looked like after Charley and then came Frances & Jeanne.

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271. MTWX
Trying to get us again!! On the bright side the more it has problems, the more overtime I get!! ;)

Link
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Quoting weatherh98:


well then you best be winning
we all have dreams 50 million lottery draw tonight if i hit it that one number could be worth 500,000 to ya and iam serious
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Quoting PlazaRed:

Hydrus,
It looks like you have had a monster troll testing out a massive strimmer in the garden.
What caused all that mess.
On another note the UK is have yet another months rain in 24 hours with hundreds of flood alerts.
Hurricane Charley 2004.
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Quoting hydrus:
Charley.

Hydrus,
It looks like you have had a monster troll testing out a massive strimmer in the garden.
What caused all that mess.
On another note the UK is having yet another months rain in 24 hours with hundreds of flood alerts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you will if i do


well then you best be winning
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those that gave up a number i will let ya know if we all won tomorrow

Don't forget the little people when you win big, KotG. (I was going to say "13", but I was too late)
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Quoting weatherh98:


I won right?
you will if i do
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those that gave up a number i will let ya know if we all won tomorrow


how do you win?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Our kennel did well considering.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
3 more numbers 1 to 49

2

edit: oops, contest is over.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
those that gave up a number i will let ya know if we all won tomorrow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Charley.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok got em no more contest over


I won right?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number

17
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok got em no more contest over
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Thousands could lose internet access on Monday thanks to a virus called DNS Changer
Posted on July 6, 2012

July 6, 2012 – INTERNET - As viruses go, DNS Changer appeared fairly harmless – initiated in 2007, it simply generated fraudulent clicks on adverts, and made its Estonian creators something under £10million. Infected computers accessed the web slightly more slowly, but their users could be forgiven for not even noticing they had a so-called “botnet infection”, let alone realising that they were aiding a criminal gang. In shutting down the virus, however, the FBI opened a can of worms that reveals what one analyst calls “a weakness in the internet’s infrastructure.” Dan Brown, director of security research at web firm Bit9, says that worse still the FBI’s “band-aid approach” mirrors how security as a whole has evolved on the web. “Generally,” he says, “it has preferred band-aids over real solutions.” The problem arises because DNS Changer alters the directory that tells a computer the digital address to which intelligible sitenames refer: so rather than Amazon.co.uk leading you to the online bookshop, it redirects you to a fraudulent site, derives revenue from the invisible click and then passes you on to where you wanted to go. The FBI’s solution was simply to replace the criminal server, to tell people that something was wrong and to keep passing the traffic through. Now, however, it says that it can’t spend endless taxpayers’ money on maintaining that server. When it turns it off on Monday, some 350,000 people will lose their connections, of which around 20,000 live in Britain. “Security was not paid a great deal of attention while the Internet was first forming,” says Brown. “Now, years later, we’re stuck with the bill. It’s long been known what the fix for this particular problem is, but like kids eating vegetables, it’s something we put off as long as possible.” It’s extremely unlikely that this could ever be repeated on the grand scale that would be required to make a major difference to the internet as a whole; but it is possible that the constant cat and mouse game of viruses versus security experts continues to cause a number of small problems that all add up to a decent sized headache. Even Apple has recently dropped the claim that its computers are immune from viruses. But nonetheless, the distributed nature of internet infrastructure lends itself to a secure, resilient network. It’s worth emphasising, too, that those 500,000 affected by DNS Changer represent just a very tiny percentage of the 2 billion currently online. Even so, many of the 350,000 computers currently infected won’t know until Monday. And although preventable by any standard security software, there are still many users who aren’t sufficiently computer savvy to know how to keep themselves safe online. The “DNS Checker Page” allows users to see if they have the virus and to remove it, and has been largely responsible for the fall in the virus’s prevalence. –Telegraph
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
3 more numbers 1 to 49
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
Back To Silence
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/


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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number


41
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number

3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937 51058209749445923078164062862089986280348253421170 679...
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24
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 3:00 PM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.91 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 95.2°F
Dewpoint: 54.3°F
Humidity: 25 %
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Humidex: 100
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
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The pictures hardly show how bad it was.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number


37
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
They are quite funny.....lol
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242. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


Extrapolation of a present trend doesn't take into account real world limitations, such as negative feed backs which slow down the rate of warming.

The more ice you melt, the more convection can carry away the heat from the ocean and mix it with the atmosphere, so it actually gets harder to keep melting the ice.

Additionally, the last chunk of ice is dead on the N. Pole, whereas most of Greenland is a few tens of degrees farther south, with higher incidence of sunlight and for a longer time.


So that's my reasoning.


There is absolutely no basis for your argument. If there was, then the lines on the graph would show the slowing melting that you fantasize about. Measurements show that the melting is faster this year than last. Measurements also show that the atmosphere is stagnating, so there is less convection all over the place.
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Quoting hydrus:
You must have heard of The Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers...I own the entire collection, and there original.Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 am CDT Friday Jul 06 2012


Valid 061630z - 071200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the upper
Midwest...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over far northern Maine...


..There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the middle-south and
lower MS valley...


..upr Midwest...
Healthy nocturnal mesoscale convective system has diurnally weakened over northern Minnesota with only
remaining strong convection of elevated variety across the upper
Great Lakes region. Despite being elevated...gusty winds can still be
expected with activity moving across northestern Minnesota and lksup region
through early afternoon.


Later this afternoon...a challenging forecast has unfolded. As middle/upper level
cloud canopy from early mesoscale convective system thins/diminishes...very strong low level
heating will commence along/S of an east-west oriented front across eastern South Dakota
into WI. Morning soundings suggest that warming will take place in
the 700 mb-500 mb layer...further complicating matters as cinh likely
increases. In fact...latest deterministic and sref guidance suggest
that any storm initiation will likely be north of the front with little
if anything forming in the warm sector. As a result...this outlook
has trimmed along southern edge of ongoing slight risk. But...outlook
will maintain at least a small probability of thunderstorms developing S of
the front. If this occurs...upscale growth into bows and lewps with
damaging winds...large hail and perhaps a brief tornado could occur.
These storms would reach the central Great Lakes later tonight.


Otherwise...at a slightly higher probability...storms developing north
of the front will likely produce large hail given the steep lapse
rate environment and wind shear of 40-50 kts. Activity will tend to
backbuild southwestward along the cold front toward surface low pressure in southeastern
South Dakota during the evening with similar severe risks and eastward into the upper
Great Lakes region overnight.



WOW....that would be quite the collection!!!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I've got comments about this African tropical wave about to enter the Atlantic in the last paragraph of my newest update...

LOL...what's up with these numbers everyone is calling out? Is there a lottery drawing going on? I don't have a lottery ticket....


Hello.
i may have to go read your blog. i wrote one and went to sleep!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
239. wxmod
This shows arctic sea ice thickness. From what I have looked at to date, everything that is red will melt before September, and the light purple will probably also melt. Only the dark purple will make it to next year.

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Quoting wxmod:


Why do you say that? It's just a graph based on measurements. Is your hunch better than the measurements?


Extrapolation of a present trend doesn't take into account real world limitations, such as negative feed backs which slow down the rate of warming.

The more ice you melt, the more convection can carry away the heat from the ocean and mix it with the atmosphere, so it actually gets harder to keep melting the ice.

Additionally, the last chunk of ice is dead on the N. Pole, whereas most of Greenland is a few tens of degrees farther south, with higher incidence of sunlight and for a longer time.


So that's my reasoning.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
18z Best Track for 97E and Daniel:

EP, 97, 2012070618, , BEST, 0, 93N, 960W, 25, 1006, DB

Daniel:

EP, 04, 2012070618, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1155W, 60, 993, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14887
I'm having wind gusts in excess of 30mph and a lot of lightning...BBL
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235. XLR8
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number


8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
234. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


Graph may be a little over doing it for about the 4 iciest months, since in order to get that bad, you'd probably first need to melt all or most of the Greenland ice.

Still, it's probably very reliable for about the 4 or 5 warmest/least icy Northern Hemisphere months.


Why do you say that? It's just a graph based on measurements. Is your hunch better than the measurements?
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I may have to log off soon...I'm having a very impressive lightning display at the moment.
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Quoting wxmod:
Quoting BobWallace:




I always wonder about the people who comment here who don't understand this graph.


Graph may be a little over doing it for about the 4 iciest months, since in order to get that bad, you'd probably first need to melt all or most of the Greenland ice.

Still, it's probably very reliable for about the 4 or 5 warmest/least icy Northern Hemisphere months.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I've got comments about this African tropical wave about to enter the Atlantic in the last paragraph of my newest update...

LOL...what's up with these numbers everyone is calling out? Is there a lottery drawing going on? I don't have a lottery ticket....


Lol. I don't know either. I was just happy there was a post I actually had an answer for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


I've got comments about this African tropical wave about to enter the Atlantic in the last paragraph of my newest update...

LOL...what's up with these numbers everyone is calling out? Is there a lottery drawing going on? I don't have a lottery ticket....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
We don't smoke marijuana in Muskogee;
We don't take our trips on LSD
We don't burn our draft cards down on Main Street;
We like livin' right, and bein' free.

I'm proud to be an Okie from Muskogee,
A place where even squares can have a ball
We still wave Old Glory down at the courthouse,
And white lightnin's still the biggest thrill of all

We don't make a party out of lovin';
We like holdin' hands and pitchin' woo;
We don't let our hair grow long and shaggy,
Like the hippies out in San Francisco do.

And I'm proud to be an Okie from Muskogee,
A place where even squares can have a ball.
We still wave Old Glory down at the courthouse,
And white lightnin's still the biggest thrill of all.

Leather boots are still in style for manly footwear;
Beads and Roman sandals won't be seen.
Football's still the roughest thing on campus,
And the kids here still respect the college dean.

We still wave Old Glory down at the courthouse,
In Muskogee, Oklahoma, USA.
You must have heard of The Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers...I own the entire collection, and there original.Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 am CDT Friday Jul 06 2012


Valid 061630z - 071200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the upper
Midwest...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over far northern Maine...


..There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the middle-south and
lower MS valley...


..upr Midwest...
Healthy nocturnal mesoscale convective system has diurnally weakened over northern Minnesota with only
remaining strong convection of elevated variety across the upper
Great Lakes region. Despite being elevated...gusty winds can still be
expected with activity moving across northestern Minnesota and lksup region
through early afternoon.


Later this afternoon...a challenging forecast has unfolded. As middle/upper level
cloud canopy from early mesoscale convective system thins/diminishes...very strong low level
heating will commence along/S of an east-west oriented front across eastern South Dakota
into WI. Morning soundings suggest that warming will take place in
the 700 mb-500 mb layer...further complicating matters as cinh likely
increases. In fact...latest deterministic and sref guidance suggest
that any storm initiation will likely be north of the front with little
if anything forming in the warm sector. As a result...this outlook
has trimmed along southern edge of ongoing slight risk. But...outlook
will maintain at least a small probability of thunderstorms developing S of
the front. If this occurs...upscale growth into bows and lewps with
damaging winds...large hail and perhaps a brief tornado could occur.
These storms would reach the central Great Lakes later tonight.


Otherwise...at a slightly higher probability...storms developing north
of the front will likely produce large hail given the steep lapse
rate environment and wind shear of 40-50 kts. Activity will tend to
backbuild southwestward along the cold front toward surface low pressure in southeastern
South Dakota during the evening with similar severe risks and eastward into the upper
Great Lakes region overnight.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:




I always wonder about the people who comment here who don't understand this graph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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