Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
double rainbow

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Afternoon all....wow radar out of NOLA has showers coming up from the SE and down from the NE. A one two punch....
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Quoting weatherh98:


Lol pat haha


don't tempt fate less fate tempt you
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like this years pattern. This could be why FL has already been hit twice.



Yup that 1016 mb line has swayed from me to you this year
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting StormTracker2K:
2004 was the year that FL almost got hit by everything that formed.


Jamaica was pretty luckily in 2004...we had had close encounter with Ivan, but it could have been much worst had there been a direct impact. Damages were in excess of 350 million dollars.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


can you tell where the rain is?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting weatherh98:


You can see the position(s) of the ridge


Looks like this years pattern. This could be why FL has already been hit twice.

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Quoting Patrap:


They dont too well when a Bolt hits a Pine tree or Power Pole and that Bark comes thru the window neither.

"Brain Protector"





Lol pat haha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting weatherh98:


surge protector...


They dont too well when a Bolt hits a Pine tree or Power Pole and that Bark comes thru the window neither.

"Brain Protector"



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting nigel20:

The power of 150mph+ winds.
I'm having light showers at the moment, but I'm happy for the relief that we've gotten from this tropical wave though we're still in need of a bit more.


I'm about to get pounded here as the dark clouds are moving in. If you look at the radar it doesn't look to bad but the east and west coast seabreezes are going to collide soon. Once that happens all hell is going to break lose around here. On Tuesday I lost all phones and my modem at work from a lightning strike.

GFS 8 day precip accum and it looks like FL is in for a lot of rain over the next week.

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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.90 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 95.2°F
Dewpoint: 57.7°F
Humidity: 29 %
Wind: NW 7 mph
Humidex: 101
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting StormTracker2K:
2004 was the year that FL almost got hit by everything that formed.



You can see the position(s) of the ridge
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting TomTaylor:

That Northern blob must be doing 90mph or better. It was over Montana at 7a, should be over DC by dinnertime to cool them down a little bit, and I guess Patrap will take custody by sundown.

I'm getting all cozied in for an all-day The Walking Dead marathon tomorrow.
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Quoting Patrap:


Powerdown, dont tempt fate here.


surge protector...
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Quoting weatherh98:


Im about ta get it Pat


Powerdown, dont tempt fate here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Punta Gorda after Charley.


The power of 150mph+ winds.
I'm having light showers at the moment, but I'm happy for the relief that we've gotten from this tropical wave though we're still in need of a bit more.
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2004 was the year that FL almost got hit by everything that formed.

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Quoting Patrap:


We all came out to Montereax,
On the Lake Geneva shoreline.
To make records with a mobile,
We didn't have much time.
But Frank Zappa and the Mothers,
Were at the best place around,
But some stupid with a flare gun,
Burned the place to the ground.
Smoke on the water and fire in the sky.
Smoke on the water..





Im about ta get it Pat
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am afraid to mention Grand Funk Railroad, The Grass Roots or Deep Purple. I am afraid some will only think that they are some new kind of iPod app. sigh


We all came out to Montreux,
On the Lake Geneva shoreline.
To make records with a mobile,
We didn't have much time.
But Frank Zappa and the Mothers,
Were at the best place around,
But some stupid with a flare gun,
Burned the place to the ground.
Smoke on the water and fire in the sky.
Smoke on the water..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
etc.

its/it's

effect/affect (the HPC's Subjective List of Model Perforance Characteristics gets this horribly wrong but is still interesting reading)

your/you're
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Deleted
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2 weeks after Hurricane Charley hit, these little leaves appeared on a severely damaged oak. It was like a sign that everything would be alright. ..Then Frances and Jeanne.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
305. MTWX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN AL...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061936Z - 062100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN AL...AND WRN TN ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AT 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL AND WRN TN MOVING SWWD AT AROUND 20 KT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND
SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
NOT STRONG...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY MERGE
AND GROW UPSCALE AS THEY PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN ENHANCED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP...AND COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 07/06/2012
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning everyone...since the topic seems to be about the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) I thought I would present this chart. These are the 4 features that come into play during the hurricane season .

Usually when the TUTT extends through the Caribbean a lot of times tropical waves get sheared apart, when the TUTT retreats to the North and allow for the Subequatorial Ridge to build in westerly windshear relaxes and conditions become conducive for development, same with when the TUTT pushes South that allows for the Subtropical Ridge to build in.

One thing to note on the Subequatorial Ridge is often times tropical waves find themselves moving too fast from the Atlantic into the Caribbean at 20-25 mph. inducing what some call speed shear or strong easterlies, when that happens convection sometimes outruns whatever circulation develops or development is slowed.

Pretty sure you got the speed shear part wrong.

I always thought of speed shear as the opposite. In normal sheared conditions upper level clouds are being blown away from the low level circulation. That's the reason I always though speed shear was different was because the circulation would actually move out ahead of the convection because of faster low level flow. Otherwise, if it just happened in the process you described (convection getting away from the llc), every sheared situation could be considered speed shear.
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Quoting jeffs713:
I hereby cry for both the youth of our nation, and for my ever-advancing age... "Who is Ice Cube?"...

*cry*
O'Shea Jackson. Also known as Ice Cube. The fool in the driver seat. First a rapper, later became an actor.



Here's one of his most famous songs, "It Was a Good Day"




Here's his IMDB profile, you can see what he acted in, produced, ect.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like the seabreeze collisions we get here in FL.



beacuse it essentially is the same thing
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Closer view of our cottage.
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Quoting weatherh98:

This is really cool, you can see the interaction of the lake breeze and a weak thunderstorm to make a strong thunderstorm, you can also see an outflow boundary coming in to my area from the west. I showed my mom and she said,"I dont care" but i knew you guts would appreciate it


Looks like the seabreeze collisions we get here in FL.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That system has a short life span.



pretty short indeed
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492

This is really cool, you can see the interaction of the lake breeze and a weak thunderstorm to make a strong thunderstorm, you can also see an outflow boundary coming in to my area from the west. I showed my mom and she said,"I dont care" but i knew you guts would appreciate it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting bappit:

Fat Freddy!
And his kitty.:)
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Quoting hydrus:
This was my neighbors beautiful Victorian house. They lost everything and were almost killed.


The thing I remember most was the roar of Hurricane Charley as he was coming up I-4. I will never forget that sound as the eyewall approached my area!
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Quoting Articuno:
\
Gettin Moist

Did you see the mass of lightning strikes at the end of the grafic? Serious juice.
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Quoting weatherh98:


That system has a short life span.

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This was my neighbors beautiful Victorian house. They lost everything and were almost killed.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
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Punta Gorda after Charley.

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Quoting hydrus:
Jeanne wiped out what we had left.


Yeah with Jeanne we had winds of 70 to 75mph wind gusts for several hours which wiped out anything that was left standing.


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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Fat Freddy!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's what my neighborhood looked like after Charley and then came Frances & Jeanne.

Jeanne wiped out what we had left.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
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All that sky was green leaves before the hurricane.
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My neighborhood after Hurricane Charley roared through Winter Park,FL.




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Quoting Patrap:
O yeah..

\
Gettin Moist
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Never mind :) (in my best Rita Radner voice)
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Quoting Levi32:
Behind Daniel, the next EPAC storm is already forming. One can see elevated low-level vorticity near 10N, 95W beneath light winds aloft.



More plots here
Love the new graphics, Levi! Keep 'em coming
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i need ya all to pick a number 1 to 49 i need 14 people to pick a number

14
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12
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Daniel's not looking too great right now IMO... Convection is strong but not very organized.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.