Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday
It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.
Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.
The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.
Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
TCDEP4
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012
HINTS OF AN EYE ARE APPARENT IN THE LAST FEW GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
DATA SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC...AND A SSMIS PASS AROUND 0400 UTC
INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RAGGED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES. DANIEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THESE
COMBINED FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING STARTING IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.7N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.2N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 16.3N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Good morning.It has around 12-18 hours left before it hits cooler waters.
WOAH, whats up with the CMC and UKMET?
theyve gone crazy, the wave wont develop
When do people realize that waves fizzle when they hop off of africa?
Cmc is apocalyptic
Ukmet has brain disease
Lol.
Someone doesn't like seaside
I went to an After Action Class, by the Fire Chief, when he gave the class, he was still distraught and that was a year after the crash, I will never forget this guy!
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Omg you too!?!?
Hi pr. Is there a tiny circulation in that small ball around 9N-40W?
Keep saying that to yourself... I don't like your register date...
EP, 04, 2012070712, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1186W, 75, 980, HU
I think they are dated 120625.
If you have the ability to view GIS gridded data, you can download the 2001 and 2006 impervious surface estimates from the USGS Seamless server:
http://seamless.usgs.gov/website/seamless/viewer. htm
This would give you a way to estimate impervious surface changes, at least over a short period. I believe there are other papers out there on this topic. One pet project of mine for the last few years has been to try and digitize buildings and paved surfaces from old aerial imagery back to 1930 for a rapidly urbanizing watershed to use in a model to estimate the impact on flash flooding.
There is at least some evidence suggesting that the urban heat island effect has changed rainfall patterns "downwind" of large urban areas. Clearly it's real and it is having an effect, but urban areas are the minority of land areas, and land areas are the minority of our planet's surface. The effect averaged globally is just not significant.
In regards to the increase in high-end precipitation events, are you referring to the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization report?
http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm
Viewing: 751 - 777
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index