Borderline El Nino conditions arrive; Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee hit 102°

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2012

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The odds of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season have grown to 61%, said NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in their latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion, released on July 5. Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have increased to 0.6°C above average this week, which is just above the 0.5°C above-average threshold used to define a weak El Niño event. These temperatures must remain 0.5° or more above average for three consecutive months to qualify as an official El Niño. CPC advised that current conditions show a weakening of the east-to-west trade winds over the east-central equatorial Pacific, along with a reduction in heavy thunderstorm activity over Papua New Guinea, which "reflect a likely progression towards El Niño." However, the upper atmospheric winds and circulation patterns don't resemble what we expect of an El Niño yet. For example, in June over the North Pacific Ocean, there was an overall ridge of high pressure (more characteristic of La Niña) rather than a trough of low pressure (more typical during an El Niño). Thus, any development of El Niño during July is likely to be slow. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the upper-level winds that create high wind shear capable of tearing storms apart.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 5, 2012. In the equatorial Pacific, waters had warmed to 0.6°C above average, denoting the possible onset of an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Madison all hit 102° on July 4
The summer of 2012 continued its onslaught of record extreme heat on Wednesday, with the Midwest the focus of the most intense heat. Chicago hit 102°, just 3° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. Chicago hits 102° or more an average of once every 7.4 years, and last hit that mark on July 24, 2005. Detroit's high of 102° yesterday was its hottest day since 1988. Detroit's all-time hottest temperature is also 105°, set on July 24, 1934. Milwaukee, WI also hit 102° yesterday, which tied for the 4th hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 102° was their hottest day since 1988, and tied for the 6th warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936, and the forecast for today calls for a high of 104°. Other notable extremes from the 4th of July:

St. Louis hit 105°, the seventh consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 4th longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days) and the Dust Bowl summer of 1934 (an 8-day streak.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 102 - 106° Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.

The high temperature in Pueblo Colorado reached 101 degrees on July 4th, bringing the number of consecutive days with high temperatures of 100 degrees or higher to a record thirteen. The previous record was 9 consecutive days, set in 1990. Record keeping began in 1888.

The low temperature in La Crosse, WI dropped to just 81° Wednesday. This tied July 21 1901 and July 13 1995 for the warmest low ever recorded. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Minneapolis, MN hit 101°, which is 7° below their all-time record high of 108° set 7/14/1936.

Highs of 100°+ are predicted to occur again on Thursday and Friday in Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Madison. A cold front will bring welcome relief on Saturday to the region, and the region of highest extreme heat will shift southeastwards to the Tennessee Valley. The models have backed off on their prediction of a strong ridge of high pressure bringing extreme heat to the Western U.S. next week, and more typical hot weather can be expected over most of the U.S. next week. Nevertheless, the extreme Midwest heat is causing havoc to the nation's corn crop, and multi-billion dollar drought disaster is taking shape. Today's New York Times details the drought concerns. I did a live interview Tuesday for Democracy Now discussing the recent extreme weather and how we can expect to see more weather like this in the future due to climate change.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Bombs Bursting (RadioDJgirl)
Bombs Bursting
Wyoming Smoke (laurie82472)
07/04/2012 Picture taken from Milliken Co. The smoke from the fire burning in Wyoming has filled the sky, & the sun still shows little relief of cooler temperatures in Co.
Wyoming Smoke
Patriotic Sunset (CameraDiva)
Beautiful red, white and blue sunset tonight. Happy 4th of July everyone!!!
Patriotic Sunset
Burned Corn (treeman)
From the wind and static electricity. This was no till corn
Burned Corn

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874. hydrus
5:10 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
This huge branch came down on my Dad,s motorcycle.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
873. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
872. weatherh98
2:28 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pre-Emilia looking good. Should get higher percentages at the next TWO.



40-50
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
871. weatherh98
2:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heat is also on in Eastern Europe. If we keep this up then we will no doubt be dealing with one of the hottest years EVER!



It's the middle of the day and 92 or so at the hottest and east Europe is a got 76 in the late afternoon lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
870. AussieStorm
2:25 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
869. hydrus
2:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.91 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 89.4°F
Dewpoint: 65.5°F
Humidity: 45 %
Wind: NNW 11 mph
Humidex: 101
Good morning Keep..Would you please send me a WU mail on how to upload some photos I took on my digital camera to the blog. I have never done this before and need help.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
868. 7544
2:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol


yeap posted that a bout 2 hours agao and its still spining up but i called it the pr wave so i guess we could rename it the bahamma wave now as it looks to be moving wnw imo lets see if it can get some convection to it today no u not krazy lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6872
867. redwagon
2:11 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting yoboi:




thank you sir....

If anything wanted to go home-grown in the GOM, next Mon-Thurs would be a great timeframe to do it.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
866. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:10 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Pre-Emilia looking good. Should get higher percentages at the next TWO.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32525
865. jeffs713
2:07 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting VINNY04:
Dont know. Any one have a link to that?



(took me a few minutes to resize it so it didn't break the blog)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
864. VINNY04
2:04 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

It is a tropical wave that isn't popping any convection. It is just an open trough right now, and without any thunderstorm development, will likely remain that.
Oh ok. Thanks
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
863. yoboi
2:03 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting Patrap:





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
304 am CDT Friday Jul 6 2012




Discussion...main forecast issue will be probability of precipitation especially next week.
Over the last 24 hours...deep easterly flow has clearly enhanced the
moisture profile. Precipitable water on lch and lix soundings are over 2 inches
and will likely remain at this level through much of the forecast
cycle. Water vapor shows easterly wave moving through southeast U.S. And
this should aid in enhancing thunderstorms across the region today.
Inherited probability of precipitation today looks good for now. Upper anticyclone is
prognosticated to weaken and reform over the western U.S. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) dig middle latitude trough into S.E. US. With upper TUTT low
forecasted over the eastern Gulf. With little change in moisture
profile planned...will keep scattered diurnal convection in
forecast. Frontal boundary is still prognosticated near arklatx by middle
of next week. If front moves further south than prognosticated...will need
to monitor for heavy rain/flood potential across central Louisiana
and East Texas. Temperatures should be near or a little below
normal through forecast cycle.




&&


Marine...fairly weak pressure pattern to continue through early
next week. Approach of frontal boundary and development of weak low
pressure waves along front will tighten gradient some...but overall
seas should remain at 3 feet or less. Main issue will be periodic
thunderstorm activity especially near the coast and nearshore waters
through most of the period.




&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 92 74 92 75 91 / 50 40 50 20 50
kbpt 92 73 92 75 92 / 50 30 50 20 50
kaex 94 74 94 72 93 / 50 40 50 20 50
klft 89 74 91 74 92 / 60 40 50 20 50


&&


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.




thank you sir....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2400
862. jeffs713
2:02 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting VINNY04:
Dont know. Any one have a link to that?

It is a tropical wave that isn't popping any convection. It is just an open trough right now, and without any thunderstorm development, will likely remain that.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
861. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:02 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.91 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 89.4°F
Dewpoint: 65.5°F
Humidity: 45 %
Wind: NNW 11 mph
Humidex: 101
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
860. VINNY04
1:59 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol
Dont know. Any one have a link to that?
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
859. Patrap
1:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting yoboi:



hey pat i am from swla why are we going to get rain for the next week chances at 60-70%





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
304 am CDT Friday Jul 6 2012




Discussion...main forecast issue will be probability of precipitation especially next week.
Over the last 24 hours...deep easterly flow has clearly enhanced the
moisture profile. Precipitable water on lch and lix soundings are over 2 inches
and will likely remain at this level through much of the forecast
cycle. Water vapor shows easterly wave moving through southeast U.S. And
this should aid in enhancing thunderstorms across the region today.
Inherited probability of precipitation today looks good for now. Upper anticyclone is
prognosticated to weaken and reform over the western U.S. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) dig middle latitude trough into S.E. US. With upper TUTT low
forecasted over the eastern Gulf. With little change in moisture
profile planned...will keep scattered diurnal convection in
forecast. Frontal boundary is still prognosticated near arklatx by middle
of next week. If front moves further south than prognosticated...will need
to monitor for heavy rain/flood potential across central Louisiana
and East Texas. Temperatures should be near or a little below
normal through forecast cycle.




&&


Marine...fairly weak pressure pattern to continue through early
next week. Approach of frontal boundary and development of weak low
pressure waves along front will tighten gradient some...but overall
seas should remain at 3 feet or less. Main issue will be periodic
thunderstorm activity especially near the coast and nearshore waters
through most of the period.




&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 92 74 92 75 91 / 50 40 50 20 50
kbpt 92 73 92 75 92 / 50 30 50 20 50
kaex 94 74 94 72 93 / 50 40 50 20 50
klft 89 74 91 74 92 / 60 40 50 20 50


&&


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
858. all4hurricanes
1:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's what I said... lol

Hey, Taz... how was your 4th of July?

Refresher:

97L - Atlantic
97E - East Pacific
97C - Central Pacific
97W - West Pacific
97A - Arabian Sea
97B - Bay of Bengal
97S - Southern Hemisphere West of 135E [includes S Indian Ocean]
97P - Southern Hemisphere East of 135E [basically the entire South Pacific]

Does anybody know what, if anything, invests in the SIndian basin are labelled?

EDIT: Did u know Navy website has access to archived recent years' tracks and imagery?


I heard that they gave the South Atlantic a "Q" suffix, can anyone confirm this?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2374
857. yoboi
1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
wu mail fer yous keep.



hey pat i am from swla why are we going to get rain for the next week chances at 60-70%
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2400
856. louisianaweatherguy
1:52 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
855. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well I hope so. Been noticing your temps have been way higher than mine. And that just don't seem right somehow. :)



Fair

79°F

26°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedW 5 mph
Barometer30.06 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index83°F (28°C)
expected hgigh today is 97 with heat indexs poss. surpassing 110
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
854. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:48 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
853. OrchidGrower
1:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Surely by now someone has studied the Dust Bowl years and examined fishing records to figure out if the Pacific was in a cold PDO back in the 1930s. I know farming practices exacerbated the actual Dust Bowl "dust conditions," but I would imagine oceanic conditions are one of if not The primary factors.

Does anyone know the states of ENSO, PDO, NAO and so on for the early 1930s? I could have sworn someone has studied this by now and released the results.
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
852. Bobbyweather
1:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting FutureWx6221:
06/1200 UTC 14.6N 114.5W T4.0/4.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

Hurricane to come soon?

It's a possibility. But for 11am NHC will probably keep the wind speeds at 65 mph, per ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forcasting).
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2669
851. Patrap
1:41 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
wu mail fer yous keep.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
850. AtHomeInTX
1:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.92 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 84.0°F
Dewpoint: 68.5°F
Humidity: 60 %
Wind: NW 6 mph
Humidex: 98


last day of our heat
cool front in the am swings by


Well I hope so. Been noticing your temps have been way higher than mine. And that just don't seem right somehow. :)



Fair

79°F

26°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedW 5 mph
Barometer30.06 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index83°F (28°C)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
849. Patrap
1:37 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Itsa cruel..

Cruel Summer..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
848. dabirds
1:37 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Heard 109 for StL today, top of my page says 90 already there, not 115 record Doc mentioned, but believe they'll get second longest consecutive 100+ tomorrow - set three during Dust Bowl ILwthr. The 115 was set in 54, which I've heard several people compare this year to, warm early & often. Glad I gave up replica WS ring tix for tonite.

Our town's homecoming this weekend, doubt the vendors will be raking it in, too darn hot!
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 772
847. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:35 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.92 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 84.0°F
Dewpoint: 68.5°F
Humidity: 60 %
Wind: NW 6 mph
Humidex: 98


last day of our heat
cool front in the am swings by
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
846. hydrus
1:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Thank you Pat and Baha.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
845. AtHomeInTX
1:33 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks like a longwave trough trying to dig down that may be just what the Dr. ordered to break the Heat Wave. Looks like POPS will increase from central Texas across the MS/TN valley on up towards the Carolina's...oops meant North and South Carolina. I would also expect a front to drape itself across the FL. Peninsula at some point before washing out.


That's what I was hoping. If the front gets that far south hopefully that meant a break in the heatwave and some drought relief.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
844. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:33 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I mean there were 70 degree temps in January all the way up to the Dakotas for a time when there should have been feet of snow on the ground and then came the super heat wave back in March which brought temps to near 90 in those same locations.



then the heat for june into early july
which will retreat temporary
then return for a three week stretch
from the 4th week of july
till end of the second week of august
with a storm in the atlantic basin
by the next full moon
or just before aug 2
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
843. GTcooliebai
1:29 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS CLEARLY ENHANCED THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. PWAT ON LCH AND LIX SOUNDINGS ARE OVER 2 INCHES
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
INHERITED POPS TODAY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND REFORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF DIG MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTO S.E. US. WITH UPPER TUTT LOW
FORECASTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
PROFILE PLANNED...WILL KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN
FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED NEAR ARKLATX BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IF FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND EAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST CYCLE.
Looks like a longwave trough trying to dig down that may be just what the Dr. ordered to break the Heat Wave. Looks like POPS will increase from central Texas across the MS/TN valley on up towards the Carolina's...oops meant North and South Carolina. I would also expect a front to drape itself across the FL. Peninsula at some point before washing out.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
842. FutureWx6221
1:28 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
06/1200 UTC 14.6N 114.5W T4.0/4.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

Hurricane to come soon?
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
841. BahaHurican
1:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Well, I gotta run. I'll check in later as time permits.

Ya'll have a great Friday!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
840. Patrap
1:26 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
839. ARiot
1:26 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Difficult to compare this weather with the "dust bowl" as it was more man made than caused by weather.

While it still a disaster, and we can't rule out anything in our hotter climate (that we made), we're unlikely to see such "dust bowl" conditions until aquifers and resivoirs are empty or too low to reach for the costs. Even simple windbreaks, some planted in the dustbowl recovery, are still around to stop the wholesale erosion.

Ken Burns has a documentary coming up on the dustbowl, PBS has good timing.

http://www.pbs.org/about/news/archive/2012/dust-b owl-airdate/

Also suggest a good book, "The Worst Hard Time, The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl"
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
838. redwagon
1:23 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
That Northern Blob sure is trucking along.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
837. AtHomeInTX
1:20 PM GMT on July 06, 2012


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS CLEARLY ENHANCED THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. PWAT ON LCH AND LIX SOUNDINGS ARE OVER 2 INCHES
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
INHERITED POPS TODAY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND REFORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF DIG MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTO S.E. US. WITH UPPER TUTT LOW
FORECASTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
PROFILE PLANNED...WILL KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN
FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED NEAR ARKLATX BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IF FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND EAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST CYCLE.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
836. TampaSpin
1:18 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Looks like the wave will continue thru the Caribbean with NO DEVELOPMENT.....SHEAR is just too high for anything to form at the surface. It will continue toward the NW Caribbean into the Yucatan or possibly move into the Gulf of Mexico in about 4-5days.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
835. GTcooliebai
1:17 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think there are several similarities in the larger wx patterns [cold PDO, ENSO, NAO to a lesser extent] that are worthy of note.
So we're on the positive NAO as well, since a negative NAO means a weaker Subtropical Ridge, weaker Icelandic Low, and as a result cooler temps. along the East Coast.

I found this Link it helps me understand it in a general way. I'm just curious is it the surface pressures the driving forces for all these weather patterns?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
834. BahaHurican
1:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning..If anyone has a moment, please coach me on how to post photo,s here on the blog. I have some from last nights storm.
Simplest way is to upload them to Wunderground using the MyPhotos option under your username. Then follow the usual process for posting graphics. Other than that, u need to find another image storage location where you can upload the pics u want to use.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
833. BahaHurican
1:09 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think the reason for the comparisons is because of this unrelenting heat which is fueling this drought by tdrying the soil out at a record pace and if you think about this has been going on since January due to the lack of snow in many areas across the MidWest.
I think there are several similarities in the larger wx patterns [cold PDO, ENSO, NAO to a lesser extent] that are worthy of note.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
832. BahaHurican
1:07 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heat is also on in Eastern Europe. If we keep this up then we will no doubt be dealing with one of the hottest years EVER!

Looks like that wx pattern from 2010, with the heat wave over eastern / central Russia and the flooding over the Indian subcontinent, is trying to set up again. Talk about miserable.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
831. GTcooliebai
1:05 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
1033 mb. A/B High for Fri. 13th.



Breaks down on the 19th to 1026 mb. Around that time if the SAL is low I would look for development off the coast of Africa.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
830. hydrus
1:03 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Good morning..If anyone has a moment, please coach me on how to post photo,s here on the blog. I have some from last nights storm.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
829. ILwthrfan
1:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


All of this heat is just drying the soil out at a record pace. We could be seeing a Dust Bowl in the making across the MidWest.



That's the GFS too, which is the lowest of the model output on high temperatures today. My area's local forecast discussion said the MEX model 2 days ago was running highs today 109-114 in parts of Illinois, but they are forecasting 103-106. Same for tomorrow.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
828. BahaHurican
1:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Hmmm... looks much less impressive this a.m.



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
827. StormTracker2K
1:00 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
I mean there were 70 degree temps in January all the way up to the Dakotas for a time when there should have been feet of snow on the ground and then came the super heat wave back in March which brought temps to near 90 in those same locations.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
826. weathermanwannabe
1:00 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
820. GTcooliebai 8:51 AM EDT on July 06, 2012

Great chart. The sub-equatorial ridge has not fully alligned into the optimum position yet which normally occurs in the peak of the season. In terms of speed, the waves themselves will start slowing down in a few few weeks, to that optimum 10-12 knot pace, which reduces the "speed" sheer and can allow for better vertical stacking as they develop. Not quite there yet.
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825. MAweatherboy1
12:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
hurricane at 11am

65mph TS at 11...

EP, 04, 2012070612, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1144W, 55, 995, TS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
824. StormTracker2K
12:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have heard people make eerie comparisons of this year's summer to that one. Not a pleasant thought at all.


I think the reason for the comparisons is because of this unrelenting heat which is fueling this drought by tdrying the soil out at a record pace and if you think about this has been going on since January due to the lack of snow in many areas across the MidWest.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.