The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:34 PM GMT on July 03, 2012

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Intense heat continues to bake a large portion of the U.S. this Tuesday, with portions of 17 states under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures. The heat is particularly dangerous for the 1.4 million people still without power and air conditioning due to Friday's incredible derecho event, which is now being blamed for 23 deaths. The ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. In his Sunday post, The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30, Mr. Burt documents that eighteen of the 298 locations (6%) that he follows closely because of their long period of record and representation of U.S. climate broke or tied their all-time heat records during the past week, and that "this is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country." The only year with more all-time heat records than 2012 is 1936, when 61 cities of the 298 locations (20%) set all-time heat records. The summer of 1936 was the hottest summer in U.S. history, and July 1936 was the hottest month in U.S. history.

According to wunderground analysis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) extremes database, during June 2012, 11% of the country's 777 weather stations with a period of record of a century or more broke or tied all-time heat records for the month of June. Only 1936 (13% of June records broken or tied) and 1988 (12.5%) had a greater number of all-time monthly June records. I expect when NCDC releases their analysis of the June 2012 weather next week, they will rank the month as one of the top five hottest Junes in U.S. history.


Figure 1. Across the entire Continental U.S., 72% of the land area was classified as being in dry or drought conditions as of June 26, 2012. Conditions are not expected to improve much over the summer: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest drought outlook shows much of the U.S. in persistent drought conditions, with very few areas improving. The rains brought by Tropical Storm Debby did help out Florida and Georgia, however. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

The forecast: hot and dry
July is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and July 2012 is likely to set more all-time heat records. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 - 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation's grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

The wunderground Extremes page has an interactive map that allows one to look at the records for the 298 U.S. cities that Mr. Burt tracks. Click on the "Wunderground U.S. Records" button to see them.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Have a great 4th of July holiday, everyone, and I'll be back Thursday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Sheep Mountain Ablaze! (turbguy)
The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...
Sheep Mountain Ablaze!
Derecho Damage (apphotos)
A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)
Derecho Damage
Derecho in Catlett (Lokigrins2)
Ground strike reflected off car
Derecho in Catlett
Mink Creek Fire (troxygirl48)
Fire currently burning on mink creek to johnny creek. the fire has claimed 10 house that i know of. My hearts go out to the families.
Mink Creek Fire

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Or, Jedkins, people see a derecho now and think that because it's a derecho or a bow echo, it must be severe. It could all be expectations.
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Quoting islander101010:
got.a.0%.yellow
some.turning.too
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5009
Quoting WxGeekVA:
After going through the data, I think the SPC will issue a watch box looking something like this in an hour or so:



Not an official watch box, this represents the opinions of WxGeekVA only.



plzs dont be doing thing like this or evere one thinks it will be for real


plzs re move it
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Quoting barbamz:


"beat poetry"?? Don't challenge my abilities in english too much, please. lol. But maybe it's related to thunderstorms ... just to get back on topics.


or earthquakes ...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just had a 5.2 earthquake right under where the yellow circle is in the Atlantic... Interesting.


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.2 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

Wednesday, July 04, 2012 at 21:29:25 UTC
Wednesday, July 04, 2012 at 05:29:25 PM at epicenter

Location 18.397°N, 62.878°W
Depth 57 km (35.4 miles) set by location program
Region ANGUILLA REGION, LEEWARD ISLANDS
Distances

27 km (17 miles) E (87°) from THE VALLEY, Anguilla
27 km (17 miles) NE (43°) from The Valley, Anguilla
31 km (20 miles) NE (46°) from Sandy Ground, , Anguilla
327 km (203 miles) E (90°) from Carolina, PR

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 19, Nph= 19, Dmin=43.6 km, Rmss=0.63 sec, Gp=202°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source

West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00m6nnp1
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
Quoting bappit:

I thought it read like beat poetry. :)


"beat poetry"?? Don't challenge my abilities in english too much, please. lol. But maybe it's related to thunderstorms ... just to get back on topics.
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Just had a 5.2 earthquake right under where the yellow circle is in the Atlantic... Interesting.
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Quoting barbamz:

I thought it read like beat poetry. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Ys, but not in the same way.


O.K., thanks Gro. This is an example what I've found on a dictionnary discussion about "Blechhuette". Not the case in Wahington D.C. yet, I hope:
"Hasina Begum's tin-sheet and thatch home has been dismantled and a dozen women are piling up sand so that its base can be raised.
She says she is relieved because during last year's floods, there was so much water in her hut that she had to tie her children to their bed at night."
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got.a.0%.yellow
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5009
I thought this was a weather blog.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
I didn't start it. If Right's going to have their say here, then I'm sure as hell going to have mine and tell the TRUTH. So sick of the misinformation, lies, and ignorance that has taken our society by storm. I'm out before I really throw people under the bus, but this agenda is DANGEROUS the Right has. People need to stand up and STOP this madness before it's too late. I am passionate about the TRUTH, that's why I really dislike the Right's corporate ONLY agenda. I am a Christian, who loves and seeks truth with great passion. I am out until later, peace.


Jimmy Carter started the problem, Now Demos are continuing it. How has the DOE work out for you Dems?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't start it. If Right's going to have their say here, then I'm sure as hell going to have mine and tell the TRUTH. So sick of the misinformation, lies, and ignorance that has taken our society by storm. I'm out before I really throw people under the bus, but this agenda is DANGEROUS the Right has. People need to stand up and STOP this madness before it's too late. I am passionate about the TRUTH, that's why I really dislike the Right's corporate ONLY agenda. I am a Christian, who loves and seeks truth with great passion. I am out until later, peace.
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Quoting barbamz:


Giggle didn't translate it. Is it used in american english?


Ys, but not in the same way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


We have. They are in shock is all after reading the blog is all.

Lol!!! This is what I've thought.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
funny how the TWC panic calmed.
we didnt even have a new blogger


We have. They are in shock after reading the blog is all.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Please no politics... We've had a very pleasant day on the blog and that doesn't need to change now.


Says Mr Non-weather related gifs...
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Amazon has published a more detailed explanation about the outage that knocked out a number of popular websites on Friday night, including Netflix, Instagram, and Pinterest. The culprit: a 20-minute power outage at a single Northern Virginia data center.

Problems started at 7:24 p.m. PDT when there was a %u201Clarge voltage spike%u201D on the grid used by two of Amazon%u2019s data centers. When technicians tried to move to backup power, the diesel-powered generators just didn%u2019t work properly at one of the data centers. %u201CThe generators started successfully,%u201D Amazon now says, %u201Cbut each generator independently failed to provide stable voltage as they were brought into service.%u201D

Judging from Amazon%u2019s explanation, the generators may have been powering up, but the switching equipment at the data center didn%u2019t think they were ready for a switchover.

Then, to confuse matters more, the power went back on for a few minutes and then failed again, just three minutes before 8 p.m. Seven minutes later, the data center%u2019s battery backups started to fail.

Then the data center went dark.


It turns out that an abrupt power outage like that is pretty bad for the cloud. Though the backup generators finally started to restore power just 10 minutes into this second outage (power was fully restored 10 minutes after that), Amazon technicians soon discovered that it was going to take them about three hours to reboot affected servers in the data center and that this delay would be compounded by several bugs in their cloud software that they hadn%u2019t known about.......


http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2012/07/amaz on_explains/
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Republican didn't give money to anyone????? Thanks, I'll reformat my thinking now that you've cleared that up for me. WOW, Georgia Stormz, I see your drinking the coolaid too. So you have your say, and then say, lets not discuss it. Sounds mighty Republican of you.


You Libs aren't worth the time.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Georgia Stormz saying Republican's didn't give money to anyone is one of the most outrageous things I may have ever heard. How long you been in that ostrich stance GeorgiaStormz?


Please no politics... We've had a very pleasant day on the blog and that doesn't need to change now.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting Grothar:


Barb, next time let me translate it. You might scare the blog with words like Blechhütten. LOL


Giggle didn't translate it. Is it used in american english?
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Good timing to publish it. Did you know this? I've read about it this morning in the German newspapers.

Unexpected find in LMU Library
Rare map related to America‘s “birth certificate”


The American continent was “christened” by the cartographer Martin Waldseemüller. A previously unknown variant of the famous world map from the mapmaker’s workshop has unexpectedly turned up in the collections in the University Library in Munich.

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Quoting barbamz:


Giggle means: refrigerators are on the fritz ;-)


Barb, next time let me translate it. You might scare the blog with words like Blechhütten. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


As abrasive as you are I'll respond anyway. I've got no love for big oil. The billion in taxpayer money has atready been given away to the "green energy" companies and they failed. I pay my taxes faithfully every year and I resent seeing it wasted. When the free market supports it, green energy will become a reality no matter what you or I think. Untill then oil is what works. Just for the record, I drive a hybrid.
Well that's good for you. I wish I could say I drove a Prius, I'd be saving money and saving the environment.

As far as taxes go, people are always going to complain where taxpayer money is spent. I'd like to point out the several hundred billion dollars we spend on defense each year. Little excessive, no?
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Quoting Tribucanes:
PensacolaDoug, You Rightwingers are why we are in the mess we're in. Your party gave hundreds of billions to the richest five percent of Americans. Did it create jobs Einstein? No, we lost seven million, while not paying for two wars. You support an evil entity and you are just another pawn trying to induct others into your corrupt way of thinking. Like poison, you will pass it down to your children and those close to you. National wealth has been taken and given to those with all, I'm glad your so thrilled with it son.


republicans didnt give money to anyone, but this is a weather blog so lets not argue about it.
If you work hard you can have part of the billions, democrats or republicans in charge

but please dont argue about this on the blog.
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Models keep the area off the NE Coast completely extra-tropical and has a virtually zero chance of development.
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That was me being civil.
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting Tribucanes:
PensacolaDoug, You Rightwingers are why we are in the mess we're in. Your party gave hundreds of billions to the richest five percent of Americans. Did it create jobs Einstein? No, we lost seven million, while not paying for two wars. You support an evil entity and you are just another pawn trying to induct others into your corrupt way of thinking. Like poison, you will pass it down to your children and those close to you. National wealth has been taken and given to those with all, I'm glad your so thrilled with it son.




I'm certainly not your "son". You're entitled to your opinion. This has been a fairly civil discussion today. I'd rather it stay that way.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 PM AST WED JUL 4 2012

PRC025-029-031-037-053-063-077-085-087-089-103-11 9-127-129-139-
050000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0263.120704T2107Z-120705T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-GURABO PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS
PIEDRAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-FAJARDO
PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
507 PM AST WED JUL 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CANOVANAS...CEIBA...GURABO...NAGUABO...JU NCOS...LAS
PIEDRAS...SAN JUAN...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...FAJARDO...
CAROLINA...LUQUILLO...RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 505 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAIN RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES AT LEAST UNTIL 8 PM AST. AS A RESULT...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6567 1818 6574 1818 6577 1819 6576
1821 6580 1820 6580 1821 6582 1819 6583
1826 6607 1845 6599

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
funny how the TWC panic calmed.
we didnt even have a new blogger
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I'd rather give a billion to a green energy company than an oil company any day.

It's a better move for the future of both people and the environment. Not to mention the oil companies you love have been robbing you blind since day one.


As abrasive as you are I'll respond anyway. I've got no love for big oil. The billion in taxpayer money has atready been given away to the "green energy" companies and they failed. I pay my taxes faithfully every year and I resent seeing it wasted. When the free market supports it, green energy will become a reality no matter what you or I think. Untill then oil is what works. Just for the record, I drive a hybrid.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
Quote
....We're also joined by The Guardian's U.S. environment correspondent Suzanne Goldenberg and by Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at the Weather Underground website. ...

Transcript of the whole interview
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Ah sounds nice, my Dad went down to the beach today said it was drizzling when he got there lol, enjoy your day!


Thanks Tom Be well!
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Current CAPE values and LCI per RAP:


CAPE

LCI
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
July 1977



115 mph in Rhinelander, WI
100 mph in Phillips, WI before the anemometer blew away
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Quoting lobdelse81:

This system looks interesting. Anyone know what the SSTs are in the vicinity of that mass of convection off the East coast? Could it eventually develop like Cindy of last year or even Chris?


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





So what do you suggest? Another billion for Solyndra and other failed "green energy" companies?
I'd rather give a billion to a green energy company than an oil company any day.

It's a better move for the future of both people and the environment. Not to mention the oil companies you love have been robbing you blind since day one.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OH / SWRN PA / NRN-NERN WV / NRN VA
/ MD PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042004Z - 042100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD-SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD WIND DAMAGE/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING MCV OVER
W-CNTRL PA WITH A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A GROWING CU FIELD
OVER FAR ERN OH AND N OF PIT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MCV AND POSSIBLE SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES TIED PRIMARILY TO
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW --FROM EARLIER STORMS THAT FORMED OVER
NWRN PA-- MAY AID IN FURTHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A
HOT/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND A MODIFIED 12Z PIT RAOB FOR 93/68
TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETTING WITH 3000
J/KG MLCAPE. APPRECIABLE NWLY FLOW /25-35 KTS/ IN THE 4-9KM LAYER
YIELDS AROUND 25-30 KTS 0-6 SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
MULTICELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK. IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN
CONGEAL AND ORGANIZE...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS...A
PERHAPS GREATER COVERAGE OF DMGG WINDS MAY RESULT.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012

Just west of me... Wonder if we'll get included too as CAPE in my area is at 3000j/kg +....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
July 1995



91 mph in Fargo, ND
87 mph in Stow, OH
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wow i havent seen a thunderstorm this good in years zephyrhills FL.lots of lightning and thunder and rain at 3.35 in per hr. im sure there wind but i live in a bowl so i dont get the wind like they do on the flats.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





So what do you suggest? Another billion for Solyndra and other failed "green energy" companies?


shhhh.
you arent supposed to bring that up.....
at least according to some.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Nice and sunny! Monsoon flow getting closer,hoping for a storm or 2 during the next week.
Ah sounds nice, my Dad went down to the beach today said it was drizzling when he got there lol, enjoy your day!
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Quoting TomTaylor:

Oil and it's derivatives are not forever. They're a short term solution to a long term problem (our energy demand). Realville 2.0.

And instead of making good American jobs for the oil industry, why not do it for the solar industry?





So what do you suggest? Another billion for Solyndra and other failed "green energy" companies?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
We in Europa aren't spared ...

Extreme Weather Conditions Cost EU’s Transport System at Least €15 Billion Annually
ScienceDaily (July 4, 2012) —
A study carried out by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland indicates that extreme weather conditions cost EU transport system at least €15 billion a year. Currently, the greatest costs incurred are from road accidents, with the associated material damage and psychological suffering. However, costs arising from accidents are expected to decrease in volume, though time-related costs attributable to delays are projected to increase. In part, this is due to climate change, whose impact on extreme weather phenomena was addressed in the study, and because of consequent costs.
More on Science daily
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Forgot about the one in 1995:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepage s/jul1995derechopage.htm#2nd1995

Plenty of historical derechos are listed on this page from the SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechof acts.htm#historic
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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