Extreme storms and extreme heat hit the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2012

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A violent line of organized severe thunderstorms called a derecho swept across the U.S. from Illinois to Virginia on Friday, damaging houses, toppling trees, bringing down power lines. The storms killed six people in Virginia, two in New Jersey, and one in Maryland, and left at least 3.4 million people without power. The thunderstorms in a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead") create violent winds that blow in a straight line. The traditional definition of a derecho is a thunderstorm complex that produces a damaging wind swath of at least 240 miles (about 400 km), featuring a concentrated area of thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 58 mph (93 km/hr.) A warm weather phenomenon, derechos occur mostly in summer, especially June and July in the Northern Hemisphere. They can occur at any time of the year and occur as frequently at night as in the daylight hours. As seen on our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on, Friday's derecho began near Chicago in the early afternoon, then marched east-southeast, peaking in intensity over Virginia and Washington D.C. on Friday evening. The derecho was unusually intense due to the extreme heat, which helped create an unstable atmosphere with plenty of energy to fuel severe thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image from our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on for 11 pm EDT Friday June 29, 2012, showing the derecho over Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Click on the "hour" button above the wundermap to advance the time by one hour to watch the progress of the derecho across the country.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 871 reports of damaging winds on Friday. Twenty one of these reports were for winds over 80 mph. The highest wind gust was in Oswego, Illinois: 92 mph.



Figure 3. A dramatic change in the weather in Buckeye land: the temperature at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio dropped from 97°F to 68° after passage of Friday's derecho. The storm brought a wind gust of 82 mph to campus, and 0.86" of rain.

Historic heat wave topples Dust Bowl-era extreme heat records
A historic heat wave on a scale and intensity not seen in the U.S. since the great heat waves of the 1930s Dust Bowl era set new all-time heat records for at least ten major cities Friday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, fifteen of the 303 major cities he maintains records for on the wunderground extremes page have set all-time heat records in the past four days. The only year with more all-time heat records is 1936, when 61 cities set all-time heat records. In 2011, which had the 2nd warmest summer in U.S. history, only ten of the 303 cities set all-time heat records during the entire summer. With the the hottest month of the year (July) still to come, 2012 threatens to rival the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 for extreme heat.

All-time records for any date tied or broken on Friday:

109° Nashville, TN (old record 107° 7/28/1952
109° Columbia, SC (old record 107° on two previous occasions)
109° Cairo, IL (old record 106° on 8/9/1930)
108° Paducah, KY (ties same on 7/17/1942
106° Chattanooga, TN (ties same on 7/28/1952)
105° Raleigh, NC (ties same on 8/21/2007 and 8/18/1988)
105° Greenville, SC (old record 104° 8/10/2007 although 106° was recorded by the Signal Service in July 1887)
104° Charlotte, NC (ties same on 8/9 and 10/2007 and 9/6/1954)
102° Bristol, TN (ties same on 7/28/1952-this site now known as `Tri-State Airport')
109° Athens, GA. This is just 1° shy of the Georgia state record for June of 110° set at Warrenton in 1959.

All-time state June heat records set Friday:

113° Smyrna, TN (old record 110° in Etowah in June 1936)
109° Cairo, IL (old record 108° in Palestine in June 1954)

Also of note: Atlanta, GA hit 104° (its all-time June record), and just 1° shy of its all-time record of 105° set on 7/17/1980. The forecast for Atlanta on Saturday calls for a high of 105°F, which would tie for the hottest day in the city's history.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post called The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 1: The West and Plains June 23 - 27 summarizing the early portion of this week's historic heat wave. He plans to make a follow-up post on Sunday summarizing the records set on Friday and Saturday.

Relatively quiet in the Atlantic
An area of heavy thunderstorms, associated with an upper level low pressure system, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico along the Texas coast. This disturbance will probably move ashore over Texas before development into a tropical depression can occur, and NHC is giving it a 0% chance of development. The tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles (Invest 97L) has dissipated due to dry air, and is no longer a threat. None of the reliable computer models are developing anything during the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Chicago Shelf (LarrySmit)
Chicago Shelf
Summer Heat (gardner48197)
Summer Heat
Smokey Clouds (LarrySmit)
Asperatus Clouds
Smokey Clouds
And the Sky Opened Up! (webgal)
Much needed thunderstorms came through west-central Illinois late this evening. The lightning was absolutely incredible!
And the Sky Opened Up!

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Quoting JeffMasters:
Wunderground and many other web sites using Linux are experiencing server crashes that may be related to the fact that a leap second is being observed today: link

Jeff Masters


I didn't know this was a problem for Linux. I just ran across that link on hacker news.

I guess the leap second is more powerful than Y2K. Hahaha... sigh.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





hmmmm
wunder where on the gulf coast she is
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
does anyone see anything strange at Weather.gov


Everyone but New Mexico has red flag warnings?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes i no that but what dos linux have too do with weather underground
thats the sofware thats running the servers
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Evening all... back from running some errands.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
The wave train is setting up quite nicely for this time of the yr. I'm ready to track some real action in the MDR.
I dunno how much u'r going to see for the next 2 weeks... looks like the MJO has moved on for the nonce...

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Quoting ernesto2012:
my name is marsha im from the gulfcoast...we deal with hurricanes all the time here and i cant see anything big forming this year because of el nino..





hmmmm
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Good Night Folks. See Yall on Monday.
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807 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HANOVER COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL KING WILLIAM COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN NEW KENT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 806 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR STUDLEY...OR
NEAR MECHANICSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TUNSTALL AROUND 830 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE WESTWOOD...ORAPAX
FARMS...QUINTON AND WRIGHTS CORNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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.
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thats it for the night. see yall lata
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I am sticking with 16 and at least 6 hurricanes and 3 majors and if 16 name storms does not occur I will accept the crow like today for 97L.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting ernesto2012:
you have the wrong girl dear


wassup?
who are you?

JFV?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting ernesto2012:



yes my friend very serious...


Check the join date and take it for what it says...

We didn't break 90 today, we were supposed to be close to 100, but I think the clouds saved us. Works for me.
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The flip side.................

The 2009 Hurricane Season in Review
By JOSEPH B. TREASTER
MIAMI — Whatever happened to the 2009 hurricane season? It never amounted to much. And that was kind of a surprise.As the season started in June, forecasters were expecting about a dozen tropical storms and predicting that perhaps half of them would grow into hurricanes.It didn’t turn out that way. As the curtain went down on the season at the end of November, there had been nine storms. Three got strong enough to be called hurricanes with winds of more than 74 miles an hour. But not one of them hit the beaches of the United States as a hurricane. The best shots weakened over water and became mainly windy rainstorms.


Assuming that at least 2-3 hurricanes will form during the Cape Verde season this year in Aug-Sept, it is going to boil down the relative position of the A-B high to determine the general trajectory. Generally, there are 4 usual options:

a) Several fish storms if the A-B high retro-grades to the East;

b) A risk to the East Coast if the Western edge of the high sets up a little further West;

c) A trajectory into the Caribbean towards the Greater Antilles, Florida, Yucatan Channel;

d) Real strong ridging deeper to the West, nearer to the upper Caribbean, Florida, and the Gulf, thus a trajectory through the lower Caribbean on the way to the Yucatan and Central America.

Or, any combination of the above, depending on ridge shifting and the frequency of weakening trofs during the life span of any given storm.

No two seasons are alike.


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Quoting ernesto2012:
i dont think it's over we may still have one or two left for this year...nothing major that's for sure,,,,


hey Janiel!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting washingtonian115:
Post 331..You aren't serious are you?.

I'm pretty sure he's JFV.

Anyways, Debby is finally gone for good...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al042012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206302352
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Still sticking with 15.Some say we may have a Modoki type this year.
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Do I get a cookie for being right on the TWO :)
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Post 331..You aren't serious are you?.
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Only one area mentioned.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14908
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR AND
IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting allancalderini:
I had a question about Debby if Debby had moved to the west the wind shear would not had killed her more rapidly than when she moved to the east?Because I know that at the time there was an upper level low causing wind shear.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting Tazmanian:




and too add too that

El Nio could spell quick end to hurricane season
By Eric Berger
Published 09:40 p.m., Friday, June 29, 2012



The formation of Tropical Storm Debby last weekend in the Gulf of Mexico brought the tally of Atlantic storms to four this season, the earliest that's ever happened.

But despite the quick beginning, scientists say this season may have a much quicker end, with an El Nio system likely to ride to the rescue later this summer.

"I'm becoming fairly confident that we will have a weak to moderate El Nio by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September," said Phil Klotzbach, a seasonal hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.

Scientists have long understood that El Nio, a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

phil is right but it won't be till after the 20th of september
by then we could be at 14th or 15th system of the season

we have had 4

2 in jul

3 in august

4 or 5 in sept

total 13 or 15 total
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Just read up on derechos.. had not heard the term before yesterday.. what else don't I know????
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Wunderground and many other web sites using Linux are experiencing server crashes that may be related to the fact that a leap second is being observed today: link

Jeff Masters
That's very interesting Dr.
I like the cosmic uncertainty in not knowing how often we'll have one of these leap seconds. We did have one back in 2008 that I don't recall was a problem...but apparantly this one is for some servers. Maybe it's got to do with the 2012 year, alltogether too binary:). In any case, I guess we'll know the full effects more soon enough, the official second gets added in 13 minutes.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone watching The Day After Tomorrow.


I saw it the day before yesterday.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting jamesrainier:
626 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LA ROSITA...ROMA...FALCON DAM...EL
SAUZ.
SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FALCON.

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS NINE INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR FALCON DAM. FOUR TO FIVE INCHES
IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN EL SAUZ AND ALEJANDRENAS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES AND ANOTHER TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THOSE NEAR FALCON
DAM...FALCON STATE PARK...FALCON HEIGHTS...AND THE HIGHWAY 83 AREA
NEAR THERE.

OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALEJANDRENAS...ESCOBARES...FRONTON...LOPENO...LOS ALVAREZ...LOS
GARZAS...MORALES-SANCHEZ...NEW FALCON...NORTH ESCOBARES...ROMA CREEK
AND SALINENO.

Very dangerous indeed...i got over 6 inches here in brownsville
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone watching The Day After Tomorrow.


i did in science class last year. Its a good movie though its much like the rest of the apoccolips movies out.

interesting though to see some science behind it all
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:48 PM GMT on July 08, 2009


It's an El Niño year, which typically means that Atlantic hurricane activity will be reduced. But not all El Niño events are created equal when it comes to their impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Over the past 150 years, hurricane damage has averaged $800 million/year in El Niño years and double that during La Niña years. The abnormal warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific ocean waters in most El Niño events creates an atmospheric circulation pattern that brings strong upper-level winds over the Atlantic, creating high wind shear conditions unfavorable for hurricanes. Yet some El Niño years, like 2004, don't fit this pattern. Residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast will not soon forget the four major hurricanes that pounded them in 2004--Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, and Charley. Overall, the 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes of the hyperactive hurricane season of 2004 killed over 3000 people--mostly in Haiti, thanks to Hurricane Jeanne--and did $40 billion in damage.


Just some food for thought..........
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Is anyone watching The Day After Tomorrow.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I suppose we can end up with a season like this.



That would be just fine by me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm still going with 14/7/4.


im convinced you stole that from me.

jk
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting dewfree:
11/6/3 or something like that . with super artic air entrusions southward


that would take a super el nino
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I'm still going with 14/7/4.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
626 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LA ROSITA...ROMA...FALCON DAM...EL
SAUZ.
SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FALCON.

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS NINE INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR FALCON DAM. FOUR TO FIVE INCHES
IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN EL SAUZ AND ALEJANDRENAS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES AND ANOTHER TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THOSE NEAR FALCON
DAM...FALCON STATE PARK...FALCON HEIGHTS...AND THE HIGHWAY 83 AREA
NEAR THERE.

OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALEJANDRENAS...ESCOBARES...FRONTON...LOPENO...LOS ALVAREZ...LOS
GARZAS...MORALES-SANCHEZ...NEW FALCON...NORTH ESCOBARES...ROMA CREEK
AND SALINENO.
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11/6/3 or something like that . with super artic air entrusions southward
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hun&gc= 1
this heat wave will soon be over in the east places like Alabama .
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I suppose we can end up with a season like this.



why not?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow... 2012 final numbers:

4-1-0
I suppose we can end up with a season like this.

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I made a blog if you want to visit and comment about what to expect in July.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14908
Quoting Tazmanian:
oh nos we may not see any thing for the rest of the season


dang the trolls were right :/
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
It stopped finally!!!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow... 2012 final numbers:

4-1-0




and too add too that

El Niño could spell quick end to hurricane season
By Eric Berger
Published 09:40 p.m., Friday, June 29, 2012



The formation of Tropical Storm Debby last weekend in the Gulf of Mexico brought the tally of Atlantic storms to four this season, the earliest that's ever happened.

But despite the quick beginning, scientists say this season may have a much quicker end, with an El Niño system likely to ride to the rescue later this summer.

"I'm becoming fairly confident that we will have a weak to moderate El Niño by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September," said Phil Klotzbach, a seasonal hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.

Scientists have long understood that El Niño, a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh nos we may not see any thing for the rest of the season

Wow... 2012 final numbers:

4-1-0
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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