Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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743. gatorman98
3:59 AM GMT on June 30, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Why do you have such an anti-Florida mentality?

I'm in Florida, and I'm not wishcasting 97L to come here....

You have to excuse SFLweatherman,I bet he has never experienced a Hurricane before.

I have been seeing this here since 2004...just dont understand why.....?
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
742. Articuno
11:35 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.




This could be a problem for Haiti if this invest holds itself together.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
741. Articuno
11:33 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Hey, I see we have Invest 97L.
What is the earliest recorded Cape-Verde type storm recorded?
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
740. wunderkidcayman
8:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
hey guy look like I WAS RIGHT 97L IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GIVE ME A COOKIE AND GeorgiaStormz eat crow
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
739. RussianWinter
7:34 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.





A little?

I say this things goes to da Bahamas.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
738. BrickellBreeze
7:28 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.





Explain Gro.

On another note, I'd like to say we are having great weather, clear skies, and 91-93 degree's temps.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
737. dabirds
7:21 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
I like that green east of StL in 717, but not in the forecast, but guess we can hope for a pop up. Hoped they'd built up your way Tribucanes, maybe those ones west of you will make it there!

Chicago also has a lot of brick, but even less A/C than StL, so these temps do wreak havoc on elderly who worry about power bills or break-ins and don't run A/C even if have it, or open windows if they don't. I think a couple of years ago, Chicago actually had more fatalities that were heat related than StL did and were several degrees cooler w/ less humidity.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 746
736. Grothar
6:58 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26478
735. goosegirl1
6:57 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's the usual ignorant posters that have never experienced the wrath of a hurricane


Even I, living 250 miles inland, have been through hurricanes and tropical storms. I never wish them anywhere but out to sea, I have had my fill. I think it's the risk-takers that like to see hurricanes- my older brother was living in New Bern NC during Hugo, and he and his friends rented a condo at the beach and hosted a hurricane party... pity they got skunked. I told them they were idiots, but at least were the safe kind of idiot. He learned a whole new respect for hurricanes when they tried to drive down coast to see what was happening.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
734. ncstorm
6:56 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Invest 97L..still a ways to get into a lot of mischief

Look at the convection about to exit Africa

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
733. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
I bet we'll be talking more about this wave over the coming days..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
732. PalmBeachWeather
6:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I like hurricanes themselves just not the mess they leave ha
Please tell me where you
live?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
731. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
730. LargoFl
6:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
729. LargoFl
6:52 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting icmoore:
Note to 97L: The west coast of Florida is closed until further notice. Please and thank you :)
Ditto on that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
728. Tribucanes
6:52 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
dabirds, no rain of measure for a full month now, with a low precip spring. Chance of rain this evening, low chance of severe weather too. It won't happen, Southern Wisconsin is so dry, I think we have our own ridge of death.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
727. weatherh98
6:51 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's the usual ignorant posters that have never experienced the wrath of a hurricane


I like hurricanes themselves just not the mess they leave ha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
726. icmoore
6:51 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Note to 97L: The west coast of Florida is closed until further notice. Please and thank you :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
725. Civicane49
6:50 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
724. weatherh98
6:50 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
At this time, I'd give Invest 97L a 30% chance of ever developing into a tropical cyclone. It has a few things going for it right now:

* Warm Sea Surface Temperatures
* Low Wind Shear
* [Relatively] Moist Environment

but it also has two big negatives...

* No defined surface circulation
* Increased wind shear in a few days


if it can get a surface low, with the weak anticyclone above it, it may make it although it looks grim as the shear is around 40 knots

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
723. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:49 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Here is the official NWS definition of a Heat Advisory:

Heat Advisory
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
722. FutureWx6221
6:49 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
.... where will it be on sunday... near the islands lol


It should be about 120 miles from the islands on Sunday this time, already well developed...and the depression is already supposed to have formed by tomorrow (according to SHIPS, one could assume a TS at 5:00 or 11:00, not that I support this, I think that is way too fast).
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
721. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:49 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well wind shear in the Carriabian is not that bad around 5-10 knots in many areas right now especially in the areas west of Jamaica. So depending on where 97L is going she could get quite nasty.




97L just needs to stay on the Northern side of the Caribbean. I have no idea though how shear will be when 97L gets there though.

High.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
720. hurricanehunter27
6:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I will say one thing for everybody living in the Caribbean...y'all are lucky this is not September. :P
Well wind shear in the Carriabian is not that bad around 5-10 knots in many areas right now especially in the areas west of Jamaica. So depending on where 97L is going she could get quite nasty.




97L just needs to stay on the Northern side of the Caribbean. I have no idea though how shear will be when 97L gets there though.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
719. PalmBeachWeather
6:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I bet he has. I like florida but i dont like the infestation of wishcasting from the hundreds of floridians that come back the days before a storm gets close.
It's the usual ignorant posters that have never experienced the wrath of a hurricane
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
718. goosegirl1
6:47 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Heat advisories go up with heat indices of 108+.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah the heat in GA gets really bad. Its the humidity that really gets you.


That's what saving us today- 105 but humidity is 25%. No matter which, it's like being a peanut- either boiled, or dry-roasted ;)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
717. LargoFl
6:47 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
.......................GFS precip im 72 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
716. stormchaser19
6:47 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
715. weatherh98
6:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Why do you have such an anti-Florida mentality?

I'm in Florida, and I'm not wishcasting 97L to come here....

You have excuse SFLweatherman,I bet he has never experienced a Hurricane before.


I bet he has. I like florida but i dont like the infestation of wishcasting from the hundreds of floridians that come back the days before a storm gets close.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
714. Tribucanes
6:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
My daughter is behaving great though! "Honey, stop or we're going outside." "O.K Pa" One of the few upsides to this sick heating. I worry about Chicago, they have so many elderly living without proper air conditioning. Seems like there's always fatalities there when heat like this is continual. JK of coarse about the verbage with the daughter, but this heat is no place for kids or pets.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
713. BrickellBreeze
6:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
712. SFLWeatherman
6:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
lol
Quoting weatherh98:


SFLweatherman asked for it. its yours
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
711. allancalderini
6:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If it takes the Bams it would be like the same track as Dean.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
710. GeorgiaStormz
6:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

No, that is standard. But they have varying levels... Heat advisories, excessive heat warning, etc.


no, that must be your CWAs criteria

Excessive Heat Warning - Extreme heat index making it feel very hot, typically above 105 °F (41 °C) for 3 hours or more during the day for two consecutive days or above 115 °F (46 °C) at any time. Specific criteria varies over different county warning areas.[27]

Heat Advisory - Extreme heat index making it feel hot, typically between 105 and 110 °F (41 and 43 °C) for up to 3 hours during the day and at or above 80 °F (27 °C) at night for two consecutive nights. Specific criteria varies over different county warning areas.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
709. RussianWinter
6:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
I've been watching that tropical wave for 4 days now, I said that every night it will seem to get bigger and stronger, I warned y'all but nobody listened to me, nobody saw what I saw. =(
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
708. weatherh98
6:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
.......no more tropical somethings for us please, Texas needs the rains


SFLweatherman asked for it. its yours
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
707. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
At this time, I'd give Invest 97L a 30% chance of ever developing into a tropical cyclone. It has a few things going for it right now:

* Warm Sea Surface Temperatures
* Low Wind Shear
* [Relatively] Moist Environment

but it also has two big negatives...

* No defined surface circulation
* Increased wind shear in a few days
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
706. BrickellBreeze
6:44 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


And so begins the florida casting


Why do you have such an anti-Florida mentality?

I'm in Florida, and I'm not wishcasting 97L to come here....

You have to excuse SFLweatherman,I bet he has never experienced a Hurricane before.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
705. weatherh98
6:44 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly. and looking at the data... I don't see that happening today. Later on down the road, it is a possibility. but today.. unlikely.


looks like it already had a nice blow up today (Prolly the reason for the invest tag) so i dont see it happening again in the next 5 hours
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
704. PalmBeachWeather
6:43 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Why? We are 7 years Hurricane free... I hope that streak continues for many more years...

Population has gone up exponentially, Downtown Miami is about to become the Biggest City in the South East (With over 200 High rises and Buildings proposed)

A Hurricane would disrupt the economy's recovery...
Brickell, That statement is coming from someone that has no idea about weather......Or anything else for that matter.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
703. GeorgiaStormz
6:43 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
702. weatherh98
6:42 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting FutureWx6221:
@662 I thought SHIPS intensity guidance had a 55 mph TS by Sunday?
.... where will it be on sunday... near the islands lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
701. SFLWeatherman
6:42 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Wow HPC day 7!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
700. LargoFl
6:42 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


and the gulf coast because the crapshoot models are taking it up that way
.......no more tropical somethings for us please, Texas needs the rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
699. islander101010
6:42 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


And so begins the florida casting
whynot?.if.you.get.one.fl.has.two.your.chances.in crease
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4728
698. jeffs713
6:41 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


it would take a huge blowup of convection

Exactly. and looking at the data... I don't see that happening today. Later on down the road, it is a possibility. but today.. unlikely.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
697. BrickellBreeze
6:41 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol


Why? We are 7 years Hurricane free... I hope that streak continues for many more years...

Population has gone up exponentially, Downtown Miami is about to become the Biggest City in the South East (With over 200 High rises and Buildings proposed)

A Hurricane would disrupt the economy's recovery...
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
695. weatherh98
6:41 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I will say one thing for everybody living in the Caribbean...y'all are lucky this is not September. :P


and the gulf coast because the crapshoot models are taking it up that way
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
694. jeffs713
6:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


isnt it variable from place to place?

No, that is standard. But they have varying levels... Heat advisories, excessive heat warning, etc.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
693. FutureWx6221
6:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012
@662 I thought SHIPS intensity guidance had a 55 mph TS by Sunday?
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 191

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.