Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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Wow, Keeper that's some icky heat for Toronto this time of night.
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Still sticking to my 15 NS prediction. IF el Nino doesn't form before the end of August, I can genuinely see another 10 - 11 systems organizing sufficiently to get named.

No comment on track or intensity, though. I'm not at all up to the NHC's weight... lol

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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EDT Friday 29 June 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.67 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 6

Temperature: 78.4°F
Dewpoint: 63.0°F
Humidity: 59 %
Wind: NW 5 mph
Humidex: 88
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Great continental heating seems to lead to lessening TS and hurricane development, but lobdelse81 this year will, I think, be a great exception. Maybe not another 2005, but maybe one that will be discussed in the same breath as.
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Debby looks every bit as tropical approaching Bermuda as she did when she was in the NE Gulf.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


US space craft have detected what appears to be an ocean on one of saturns moons titan

Ahhhh... a picture and 1000 words are not the same thing... lol

Thanks.

Does that mean there will be cyclones on Titan?

Hmmm...
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Quoting aerojad:
In a word, warm. When we had that incredible heat in the spring I was afraid that if a similar pattern set up in the summer it would be much worse. Thankfully it hasn't happened yet but 90+ for the next seven days? Rather not.

And now in a similar note, something tells me that the Atlantic tropics may follow in the same record-breaking footsteps as our early spring and now summer heat. Clearly it has with an unprecedented 4 named storms before July. I have family in Florida and get a suspicious feeling that the tropics mean business this year just like the heat.
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Aspectre, that area has been quiet for activity for a worrisome amount of time. Lets hope thats it. Another monster quake in that area and the world would be in trouble not just Japan
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The magnitude5.2earthquake was 42kilometres(26miles) down and epicentered
29kilometres(18miles) south of the FukushimaDaiichi(meltdown)nuclear-powerplant and
17kilometres(11miles) south of the FukushimaDaini(intact)nuclear-powerplant

SDJ is Sendai :: FKS is Sukagawa :: RJAH is Omitama

Copy&paste sdj, fks, rjah, 37.423n141.033e-37.163n141.017e, 37.316n141.025e-37.163n141.017e into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and with a ocean comes life even in simple forms

Titan (or Saturn VI) is the largest moon of Saturn. It is the only natural satellite known to have a dense atmosphere,[8] and the only object other than Earth for which clear evidence of stable bodies of surface liquid has been found.[9]

Titan is the sixth ellipsoidal moon from Saturn. Frequently described as a planet-like moon, Titan has a diameter roughly 50% larger than Earth's moon and is 80% more massive. It is the second-largest moon in the Solar System, after Jupiter's moon Ganymede, and it is larger by volume than the smallest planet, Mercury, although only half as massive. Titan was the first known moon of Saturn, discovered in 1655 by the Dutch astronomer Christiaan Huygens, and was the fifth moon of a planet apart from the Earth to be discovered.[10]

Titan is primarily composed of water ice and rocky material. Much as with Venus prior to the Space Age, the dense, opaque atmosphere prevented understanding of Titan's surface until new information accumulated with the arrival of the Cassini–Huygens mission in 2004, including the discovery of liquid hydrocarbon lakes in the satellite's polar regions. The surface is geologically young; although mountains and several possible cryovolcanoes have been discovered, it is smooth and few impact craters have been found.

The atmosphere of Titan is largely composed of nitrogen; minor components lead to the formation of methane and ethane clouds and nitrogen-rich organic smog. The climate—including wind and rain—creates surface features similar to those of Earth, such as sand dunes, rivers, lakes and seas (probably of liquid methane and ethane), and deltas, and is dominated by seasonal weather patterns as on Earth. With its liquids (both surface and subsurface) and robust nitrogen atmosphere, Titan's methane cycle is viewed as an analog to Earth's water cycle, although at a much lower temperature.

The satellite is thought as a possible host for microbial extraterrestrial life or, at least, as a prebiotic environment rich in complex organic chemistry with a possible subsurface liquid ocean serving as a biotic environment.
Via wiki
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Quoting Articuno:

I have seen smaller.
I wish I had a nickel for everytime I've heard that.
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and with a ocean comes life even in simple forms
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Hello. I live in Chicago and I witnessed the 100 degree heat. More heat to come for many more days. How are you?
In a word, warm. When we had that incredible heat in the spring I was afraid that if a similar pattern set up in the summer it would be much worse. Thankfully it hasn't happened yet but 90+ for the next seven days? Rather not.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Meaning? Details, pls...


US space craft have detected what appears to be an ocean on one of saturns moons titan

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Meaning? Details, pls...

I think he's talking about Saturn's largest moon.
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Had to, sorry New Jersey.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they have found the ocean on titan
Meaning? Details, pls...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
All right!!! Antigua on the blog... The wave - so far - should just bring typical "summer" type rain with it, since right now it's not expected to develop.

Hey Baha...is it as dry there (The Bahamas) as it is in the central and eastern Caribbean?
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they have found the ocean on titan
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Quoting islandgirls:
Good evening everyone. Sent my first post earlier in the day. Great to be a part of this community.

By the way, can anyone tell me what kind of weather we should expect from this wave here in Antigua come Sunday of Monday?
All right!!! Antigua on the blog... The wave - so far - should just bring typical "summer" type rain with it, since right now it's not expected to develop.
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Quoting aerojad:
It was way too hot in Chicagoland today. The heat and lake breeze faced off, formed some rather formidable storms. Up to baseball sized hail fell over parts of the metro area and extreme northwestern Indiana.

However it also spawned this Local Storm Report, which might be my favorite:



I hope the branches survived.

Hello. I live in Chicago and I witnessed the 100 degree heat. More heat to come for many more days. How are you?
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322. beell
Thanks for the bit of back-and-forth, RTSplayer. We have differing opinions on development potential. Good enough!

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If Jose was a tropical storm, Debby deserves to be at least a TD now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The beginnings of "Daniel" in the East Pacific:



Development of this disturbance will be extremely slow, but it should become a tropical cyclone over the next 5-6 days as it moves generally westward.

You mean the beginnings of Daniel in the 'East Pacific' as it clearly straddles the oceans.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Good evening, nigel. 'Tis a pleasure to see you.

Hey Kori...same here!
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Quoting KoritheMan:

People keep saying that, but El Nino is clearly on the horizon. And from the looks of it, it may not be terribly weak. Seasonal totals should still be within the 10-13 range.

I am hoping that this will be a weak el nino...the Caribbean was extremely dry during the 2009/2010 el nino which was a moderate to strong el nino. Here in Jamaica, the dams and wells were almost dry and we had very little rain during that period.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The beginnings of "Daniel" in the East Pacific:



Development of this disturbance will be extremely slow, but it should become a tropical cyclone over the next 5-6 days as it moves generally westward.


Now watch it develop in two days. ;)
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The beginnings of "Daniel" in the East Pacific:



Development of this disturbance will be extremely slow, but it should become a tropical cyclone over the next 5-6 days as it moves generally westward.
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Welcome back Nigel! Been little slow from the mad pace of the last two weeks. islandgirls, this was discussed earlier today and polled. I think the consensus was it'll probably make it to you, but at best it would be a strong wave. I think consensus was it would most likely at least bring some decent rains.
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


Good evening, nigel. 'Tis a pleasure to see you.
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Good evening everyone!
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Good evening everyone. Sent my first post earlier in the day. Great to be a part of this community.

By the way, can anyone tell me what kind of weather we should expect from this wave here in Antigua come Sunday of Monday?
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The baseballs must have been thrown by Cubs pitchers, missed everything. I'm a long suffering Cub's fan, so........
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Quoting aerojad:
It was way too hot in Chicagoland today. The heat and lake breeze faced off, formed some rather formidable storms. Up to baseball sized hail fell over parts of the metro area and extreme northwestern Indiana.

However it also spawned this Local Storm Report, which might be my favorite:



I hope the branches survived.


NOT THE LEAVES!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The ridge will stay there until December. ;)


Thanks, Kori. For the next six months your word is Gospel. *G*
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It was way too hot in Chicagoland today. The heat and lake breeze faced off, formed some rather formidable storms. Up to baseball sized hail fell over parts of the metro area and extreme northwestern Indiana.

However it also spawned this Local Storm Report, which might be my favorite:



I hope the branches survived.
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Poor, what remains of Debby, getting dry aired to death, and will be a minor wind event for Bermuda. NHC can breathe a big sigh of relief and hope this blob doesn't form and get stuck between east to west movement with weak steering currents in the Gulf. That was the most I've ever seen models refuse to agree with each other maybe ever with Debby. NE Florida and the peninsula couldn't take another hit within the month, they are just too waterlogged.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Wasn't the summer of 2010 also incredibly hot for Texas? That would further authenticate my statement.

Summer '10 wasn't nearly as hot as '11, plus we had two tropical storms early in the summer of '10, and then Hermine Sept 7. Compare that to what our ridge did to Don last year and the yearly total of 11" for Centex for 2011. We average about 28"/yr.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Please someone tell me the ridge will stay there unitl December. *S*


The ridge will stay there until December. ;)
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
FOX 8 New Orleans mentioned the blob in the Gulf as a rain-maeker for south/central Texas this weekend/early next week... shouldn't affect Louisiana much at all due to the huge ridge over us now


Please someone tell me the ridge will stay there unitl December. *S*
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Wasn't the summer of 2010 also incredibly hot for Texas? That would further authenticate my statement.

I thought it was normal, but I may very well by wrong. It wasn't particularly dry either.
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
FOX 8 New Orleans mentioned the blob in the Gulf as a rain-maeker for south/central Texas this weekend/early next week... shouldn't affect Louisiana much at all due to the huge ridge over us now


NAM wants to develop it into "something" but it isn't quite sure what.

Most of the models really suck at BoC storms anyway, because they get confused by the afternoon pops on land I guess, so it could go either way.
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FOX 8 New Orleans mentioned the blob in the Gulf as a rain-maeker for south/central Texas this weekend/early next week... shouldn't affect Louisiana much at all due to the huge ridge over us now
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that was just bad timing. Trust me, I lived in Texas during 2010. ;-)


Wasn't the summer of 2010 also incredibly hot for Texas? That would further authenticate my statement.
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I swear Debby and Karen must be sisters... Amazing that Debby's circulation persists despite all that's happened in the last 5 days...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It began in 2010, as evidenced by the mean storm tracks through the Caribbean being much farther south that year.

No, that was just bad timing. Trust me, I lived in Texas during 2010. ;-)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting Chucktown:
This has got to be the smallest watch box that I have ever seen.



Stand outside with a metal golf club raised over your head while standing in the watch box.
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With the current lull, I've finally had time to resume my seasonal summary blog and TCRs. Here is my June monthly tropical cyclone summary. Unless Ernesto makes a surprise appearance in the central Atlantic in the next two days, I don't think I'll have to update this again:

June [AT06]

Although out of season, tropical storms Alberto and Beryl formed in May, prior to the official start of the season. The previous incidence of two May storms was in 1887. In addition, the last time two named storms occurred before the official start of the season was in 1908. Beryl was the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall in the United States.

In season, Hurricane Chris and Tropical Storm Debby formed during the month. On average, a tropical storm occurs in June about once every other year, and a hurricane about every five years. However, it is important to note that prior to the advent of satellite and remote temperature sensing devices such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), Chris would have probably gone undetected as a tropical cyclone. The last time two named storms occurred in June was 2005.

TS ALBERTO 19 MAY - 22 MAY 50 KT 60 MPH 995 mb
TS BERYL 26 MAY - 30 MAY 60 KT 70 MPH 992 mb
H CHRIS 19 JUN - 22 JUN 65 KT 75 MPH 987 mb
TS DEBBY 23 JUN - 27 JUN 50 KT 60 MPH 990 mb
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wasn't there in 2010 or 2009.


It began in 2010, as evidenced by the mean storm tracks through the Caribbean being much farther south that year.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We like to call that the Texas Death Ridge, a semipermanent feature of the last three summers.

Ah yes...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.